XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy for July 16.Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance level 3382, support level 3300
Four-hour chart resistance level 3365, support level 3320
One-hour chart resistance level 3342, support level 3325.
Yesterday, the lowest price fell to 3320, then fluctuated upward, and rebounded to 3343. As the price fell below 3341 yesterday and accelerated downward, a transition from support to resistance was formed here. Focus on the high point of the NY market rebound yesterday, 3352. Whether it can break through here will determine whether the market continues to rise or is blocked and then falls back like yesterday.
It is worth noting that the trend of the past two days is that Asia is rising and rebounding, and the NY market is falling. Today may be a cycle of yesterday and the day before yesterday. At present, gold is fluctuating and rebounding at 3320. If the NY market cannot break through 3352, it will continue to fall. For the time being, it can be sold high and bought low in this range. After falling below 3320, the next short-term target is 3310~3300.
BUY: 3324 SL: 3320
SELL: 3320 SL: 3325
SELL: 3352 SL: 3357
Metals
GOLD - Price can start to decline and break support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Gold initially traded inside a steady falling channel, carving lower highs at $3390 and lower lows around $3285 as bears held sway.
A brief fake breakout at $3365 briefly flipped sentiment, but sellers quickly reasserted control and pushed price back toward the channel floor.
Buyers then absorbed selling at the $3285 support area, sparking a rebound into a rising wedge pattern marked by converging trendlines.
Within this wedge, three minor breakouts failed to trigger sustained rallies, underscoring persistent resistance near the upper boundary.
I anticipate Gold to roll over from the wedge’s ceiling and break below $3365, targeting the wedge’s lower support line at $3310
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HelenP I. Gold will continue to decline and break support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. After a prolonged period of consolidation, we can observe how price has formed a symmetrical pennant pattern. Price respected both the descending and ascending trend lines, bouncing several times from each side. Recently, gold tested the upper boundary of the pennant near the 3390 resistance level but failed to break through, confirming the strength of the resistance zone between 3390 and 3400 points. Following this rejection, the price started to decline and is now approaching the support level around 3305. If this support doesn’t hold, the price may drop further and break out of the pennant downward. In that case, the nearest significant target lies at 3280 points — near the lower trend line and previous reaction zones. Given the current structure, repeated rejection from resistance, and narrowing volatility inside the pattern, I expect XAUUSD to exit from the pennant and move down, breaking the support zone. That’s why I remain short-term bearish and set my goal at 3280 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment.❤️
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GOLD FULL UPDATE – July 15, 2025 | Post-CPI TrapPost-CPI Flip Zone Battle
Hello dear traders 💛
Today has been one of those heavy CPI days — full of volatility, sweeps, and doubt. But if we read it structurally and stop chasing candles, everything makes sense. Let’s break it all down step by step, clearly and human-like.
Current Price: 3330
Bias: Short-term bearish, reactive bounce underway
Focus Zone: 3319–3320 liquidity sweep + key decision structure unfolding
🔹 Macro Context:
CPI came in slightly hot year-over-year (2.7% vs 2.6%) while monthly stayed in-line at 0.3%. That gave the dollar a short-lived boost, and gold reacted exactly how institutions love to play it — sweeping liquidity under 3320, then pausing. Not falling, not flying. Just... thinking.
That reaction matters. Why? Because it shows us indecision. It tells us that gold isn’t ready to break down fully yet, and every aggressive move today was part of a calculated shakeout.
🔹 Daily Structure:
Gold is still stuck below the premium supply zone of 3356–3380. Every attempt to rally there for the past few weeks has failed — including today.
The discount demand area between 3280–3240 is still intact and untouched. So what does this mean?
We are in a macro-range, and price is simply rotating between key structural edges.
🔹 H4 View:
The rejection from CPI at 3355–3365 created a micro CHoCH, signaling the bullish leg is now broken.
After the 3345 fail, price dropped to 3320 — but it hasn’t tapped the full H4 demand at 3310–3300.
H4 EMAs are tilting down, showing pressure. This isn’t a breakout. It’s a correction inside a larger range.
🔸 Key H4 Supply Zones:
3345–3355: liquidity reaction during CPI
3365–3375: untested OB + remaining buy-side liquidity
🔸 Key H4 Demand Zones:
3310–3300: mitigation zone from the CHoCH
3282–3270: deep discount and bullish continuation zone if current fails
Structure-wise: We are in a correction, not a clean uptrend. That’s why every bullish attempt fails unless confirmed.
🔹 H1 Real Structure
This is where things got tricky today.
Price formed a bullish BOS back on July 14, when we first pushed into 3370. That was the start of the bullish leg.
But today, we revisited the origin of that BOS, right near 3320. This is a sensitive zone.
If it holds → it’s still a retracement.
If it breaks → we lose the bullish structure and shift full bearish.
So far, price touched 3320, bounced weakly, but has not printed a bullish BOS again.
🔸 H1 Zones of Interest:
Supply above:
3340–3345: micro reaction zone
3355–3365: CPI origin rejection
3370–3375: final inducement
Demand below:
3310–3300: current flip test
3282–3270: if this breaks, bias flips bearish
Right now, we are between zones. Price is undecided. RSI is oversold, yes — but that alone is never a reason to buy. We need structure. We need BOS.
🔻 So… What’s the Truth Right Now?
✅ If 3310–3300 holds and price builds BOS on M15 → a clean long opportunity develops
❌ If 3310 breaks, and we lose 3300, structure fully shifts and opens downside to 3280–3270
On the upside:
Only look for rejections from 3355–3365 and 3370–3375
Anything inside 3325–3340 is noise. No structure, no clean RR.
Final Thoughts:
Today’s move was not random. It was a classic CPI trap: induce longs early, trap shorts late, and leave everyone confused in the middle.
But we don’t trade confusion — we wait for structure to align with the zone.
If M15 or H1 prints a BOS from demand, that’s your green light.
If price collapses under 3300, flip your bias. The chart already told you it wants lower.
No predictions. Just real reaction.
—
📣 If you like clear and simple plans, please like, comment, and follow.
Stay focused. Structure always wins.
📢 Disclosure: This analysis was created using TradingView charts through my Trade Nation broker integration. As part of Trade Nation’s partner program, I may receive compensation for educational content shared using their tools.
— With clarity,
GoldFxMinds
Pay attention to 3320, if it falls below, go long at 3310-3300The short order has been completed and profit has been realized. Now the 1H technical indicators show that there is still room for decline in the short term. Focus on the 3320 support. If it falls below 3320, the gold price is expected to reach the 3310-3300 area, which is also an ideal trading area for intraday long positions. There is nothing much to say. Follow the wolves and you will get meat. Currently, the brothers who follow me to trade have all made good gains.
OANDA:XAUUSD
GOLD: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3.324.79 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,317.96..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Long Trading Opportunity
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry Level - 3330.3
Sl - 3327.23
Tp - 3337.1
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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The rebound is not a reversal, continue to shortGold showed a trend of rising and falling back and closing low on Tuesday. The highest intraday rise was 3366, and the lowest fell to 3320. The daily line recorded a medium-sized Yin line with a long upper shadow. The K-line was negative, and the closing line broke the resonance support of the middle track and the short-term moving average, suggesting that the bullish momentum has slowed down and the bears are ready to move. Today, we need to pay attention to the further downward performance of gold. From the 4H level, the price stood firm at the four-hour resistance position last Thursday, and then rebounded upward in the short term. Yesterday, the price fell below the daily support level. Currently, the short-term market is bearish, and attention is paid to the resistance in the 3340-3345 range above. In the one-hour period, the price is in short-term shock adjustment. On the whole, it will be treated as a shock decline before breaking yesterday's low, and the lower side pays attention to the 3225-3320 area support. In the short term, you can consider shorting at 3340-3350 in the European session, and look towards 3330-3320
OANDA:XAUUSD
EUR/USD : Another Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently breaking through the 1.16–1.158 zone. If it manages to hold below 1.159, we can expect further downside movement. The next targets for EURUSD are 1.15580, 1.154, and 1.148.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
SILVER: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 37.873 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 37.962..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Market Trends from 2020 to 2025How Bitcoin, NASDAQ, Gold, and Silver Really Performed Since 2020
It’s been a wild few years in the markets. From early 2020 to mid-2025, investors have had to navigate uncertainty, changing interest rates, tech booms, and the rise of digital assets. Looking back, it’s clear that some assets took off while others just quietly held their ground.
So, what happened if you had invested in Bitcoin, the NASDAQ, gold, or silver five years ago?
Bitcoin (BTC): +1,297.87%
No surprise here. Bitcoin absolutely stole the show. Despite all the ups and downs (and there were plenty), BTC ended up with nearly 1,300% gains. It had a huge surge in late 2020 and 2021, crashed hard, and then climbed even higher starting in 2023.
This kind of return doesn’t come without risk. Bitcoin was by far the most volatile of the group. But for those who held on, the reward was massive. It also marked a big shift in how people think about money and investing.
"Crypto is no longer just a fringe idea."
NASDAQ: +175.26%
Tech stocks had a strong run, too. The NASDAQ gained around 175%, driven by innovation, digital expansion, and eventually, the AI boom. While there were some bumps along the way (especially when interest rates went up), the general trend was up and to the right.
Unlike Bitcoin, the NASDAQ was more predictable, less explosive.
Gold: +127.39%
Gold did what gold usually does. It held its value and slowly moved higher. Over five years, it returned about 127%, which is pretty solid for a “safe haven” asset. It didn’t grab headlines like crypto or tech stocks, but it stayed reliable through the chaos.
Silver: +124.50%
Silver had a similar story to gold, but with a bit more fluctuation. It benefited from both investor demand and industrial use, and it ended up with just over 124% in gains. Not bad for a metal that often gets overshadowed by its shinier cousin ;).
What It All Means
If you were in Bitcoin, you saw huge gains, but also had to stomach major volatility. Tech investors did well too, especially those who stayed in through the dips. Meanwhile, gold and silver offered steadier, more defensive returns.
One big takeaway: the investment landscape is changing. Traditional assets still matter, but new ones like crypto are reshaping what portfolios can look like.
In the end, it’s about balancing risk and reward!
and figuring out what kind of investor you are.
Bitcoin harmonic pattern. Back to back Gartley. BTCGOLD ratio.The BTC/GOLD ratio has experienced a significant correction, currently standing at 27 gold ounces per 1 Bitcoin, down from a peak of 41, representing a decline of 34%.
Gold, priced at $3,114 in US Federal Reserve notes, is in a sustained bull market.
It is reasonable to anticipate that the digital equivalent of gold will gain traction once gold stabilizes at a higher price point.
The Gartley pattern is recognized as the most prevalent harmonic chart pattern.
Harmonic patterns are based on the idea that Fibonacci sequences can be utilized to create geometric formations, which include price breakouts and retracements.
The Gartley pattern illustrated indicates an upward movement from point X to point A, followed by a price reversal at point A. According to Fibonacci ratios, the retracement from point X to point B is expected to be 61.8%.
At point B, the price reverses again towards point C, which should reflect a retracement of either 38.2% or 88.6% from point A.
From point C, the price then reverses to point D. At point D, the pattern is considered complete, generating buy signals with an upside target that aligns with points C and A, as well as a final price target of a 161.8% increase from point A.
Often, point 0 serves as a stop-loss level for the entire trade. While these Fibonacci levels do not have to be precise, greater proximity enhances the reliability of the pattern.
Will these consecutive Gartley patterns succeed in bolstering Bitcoin's strength? We will soon discover the answer.
XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) on the 1-hour timeframe..XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, the setup clearly shows a bearish breakdown from an ascending channel, supported by Ichimoku Cloud analysis.
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📉 Target Points (as marked on your chart):
1. First Target Point: Around $2,335
2. Second Target Point: Around $2,312
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🔍 Analysis Breakdown:
Price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud – a bearish signal.
The ascending channel is broken to the downside.
Support zones and target levels are clearly marked:
The first target aligns with a previous support level.
The second target is a deeper support area, likely the base of the previous strong rally.
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📌 Summary:
🥇 First Target: $2,335
🥈 Second Target: $2,312
📉 Bias: Bearish (continuation likely if momentum holds and no strong reversal signs appear)
Let me know if you want suggested stop-loss, entry confirmation ideas, or risk management tips.
SILVER h4 bullish pattansilver bullish mode Bearish Disruption Scenario:
Fake bounce to ~$37.00
Rejection → Break $36.00 support
Bear momentum pushes to $35.00–34.50
Neutral/Range Disruption:
Price oscillates between 36.00 and 36.80 for longer than expected — builds up coiled energy before either sharp breakout or breakdown
Only Bullish IF:
Clean reclaim of 37.25 with strong close above
GOLD Is Going Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 3,363.11.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 3,342.15 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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SILVER SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,798.3
Target Level: 3,513.8
Stop Loss: 3,986.9
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Public short selling profit, NY short-term multiple layoutInterest rate futures data showed that the results were in line with our previous expectations, with a lower rate cut this month and a higher probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. In the short term, gold may first take profits and then rebound. NY session trading has just begun. Bros can pay attention to the 3335-3330 area below. If it falls back and stabilizes, you can consider participating in long positions, defending 3325 and targeting 3355-3365.
OANDA:XAUUSD
GOLD has entered a NEW BULL CYCLE this month! GET LOADED now!GOLD, has been on a consistent ascend since 2k levels hitting a series of ATH taps week after week.
As with any parabolic event -- a trim down is warranted.
After hitting its ATH zone at 3500, gold significantly corrected back to 38.2 fib levels at 3100 area. 38.2 fib levels has been acting as a strong support for GOLD for quite a bit and as expected buyers has started to converge and positioned themselves back again for that upside continuation -- long term.
After hitting this fib key level gold has been making consistent higher lows on the daily conveying clear intentions on its directional narrative -- to go NORTH.
As of this present, July 2025, GOLD has seen renewed elevation in momentum metrics signifying definitive blueprint towards its next upside move.
Based on our diagram above. WE have now entered a new bull cycle that only transpires every 6 months. The last cycles happened on July 2024, January 2025, then presently July 2025 which is in progress. This is very special as we dont get to see this bullish setup on a regular basis.
Ideal seeding zone is at the current range of 3300-3350.
Mid-Long Term Target at 3400
TAYOR.
Trade safely. Market is Market.
Not financial advice.
Silver. The price has pulled backHi traders and investors!
On the daily timeframe, the price has broken out of the sideways range through the upper boundary at 37.31.
The price has pulled back close to levels where potential buy patterns could form — 37.54, 37.47, and 37.31.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
GOLD in narrow range, after sharp drop on US CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply on Tuesday (July 15) as the US Dollar TVC:DXY gained significantly after the US CPI report was released. As of now (July 16), gold is trading at 3,326 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of only 2 USD in the day.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The surge in the Dollar after the US released the June CPI is the main reason for the pressure on gold prices so far.
• Data released by the US on Tuesday showed that the US CPI increased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year in June, in line with expectations, but higher than the 2.4% in May.
• The US CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in June, in line with market expectations but up from a 0.1% increase, the largest increase since January this year.
• In addition, the US core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, while the core CPI in June rose 0.2% month-on-month.
The market generally believes that US President Trump's tariff policies have increased price pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to wait and see what further action to take. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously said he expected prices to rise in the summer.
The market is still expecting the first rate cut in September. Investors are looking ahead to Wednesday's U.S. producer price index data for more information on the Federal Reserve's move.
Since gold does not yield interest, it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments, whereas high-interest-rate environments or expectations of future rate hikes put pressure on gold prices.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is trading in a fairly narrow range after 2 sessions of downward adjustment, but the specific trend is still unclear, as sent to readers throughout last week, the technical conditions mainly show a sideways accumulation movement. After testing the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, gold was unable to overcome this resistance, and the decline from this position brought the gold price close to the support of 3,310 USD and then the area of the original price point of 3,300 USD with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
With the technical conditions not giving a specific trend as they are now, for gold to be able to have a new bullish cycle it needs to move the price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target would be around $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. On the other hand, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level again, it could be a good signal for an expectation of a bullish cycle, then the target would be around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The relative strength index is hovering around 50, indicating that the market is hesitant in terms of momentum and is not leaning towards a specific trend.
During the day, with the current sideways accumulation, gold will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,240 – 3,250 – 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3387
→Take Profit 1 3375
↨
→Take Profit 2 3369
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3306⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3300
→Take Profit 1 3312
↨
→Take Profit 2 3318