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Midbollingerband

BTC-IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a DOJI pattern; indeed after having opened @ 41'476, briefly broken the former TRIANGLE BREAKOUT LEVEL @ 41'100 (low being 40'893, the BTC managed to recover in making a closing @ 41'375, confirming the still alive triangle target @ 43'400, As long as the BTC stays and hold on a daily closing above 41'000, the way is open for 43'390-43'400 (50% FIb ret, Kijun-Sen and triangle target previously mentioned. A failure to do it would invalidate this TRIANGLE FORMATION (daily closing below 41'000) and put the focus towards the daily bottom clouds support around the 40'400 area which is also, by the way the Tenkan-Sen level. 4 HOURS (H4) Interesting price action seen yesterday and this morning where, yesterday, the upside breakout attempt of the clouds (long white candle) in this 4 hours time frame has been directly neutralized by a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN and the breakout of the ongoing uptrend support line, which pushed the BTC down again towards the middle area of the clouds. The ongoing price action is showing a new breakout attempt with its last closing level (H4) matching roughly the top of the clouds zone in this time frame. Therefore, upcoming trading hours should give more clues about further development, targeting respectively, 42'220 ahead 43'400 if the upside breakout is validated or in case of a failure to do it, a return in the clouds with first support level @ 40'858 (MBB) ahhead of the bottom of Hç clouds support at 40'400. RSI above 50, @ 60.34 and LAGGING LINE, currently roughly in the middle of the clouds. 1 HOUR (H1) The 38,2% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'811 of the recent rally (38'562-42202) has nearly been reached (yesterday's intraday low being 40^8939. Interesting to note that once again the CLOUDS worked perfectly well and this time as a SUPPORT AREA. Continue to monitor and watch closely at this hourly clouds (41'300 - 40'000) as very short term support area, the 61.8% Fib ret being @ 39'952, also matching the hourly clouds bottom zone. IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - BREAKOUT OR BULL TRAP ?DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a second long white candle in a row, which broke on a closing basis (41'505) the upside triangle trigger level @ 41'115 which should, potentially activate the triangle technical target, calling for a move towards 43'400 , which is also, by the way, projected in the next days the top of the daily clouds resistance area and therefore should be seen, if reached at a KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT Interesting to note that 43'390 is the 50% Fib ret (48'534 - 35'547) and also the KIJUN-SEN, meaning very important level as previously mentioned. Nevertheless, following this first upside breakout I would remain cautious and it also could be a BULL TRAP as already seen in the past... In addition, the current level of the daily top clouds resistance area (41'900) is working as the first obstacle to be broken to confirm this upside move towards 43'400. On the downside, a failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the triangle trigger level, now @ 41'061 should be seen as the first warning signal of a wrong breakout and would put again the BTC on a neutral mode, roughly in the middlle of the daily clouds. 4 HOURS (H4) TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS is currently working perfectly well, in rejecting four successive upside breakout attempts !! RSI is losing momentum and began to turn down. LAGGING LINE is above both TS and KS but did not managed, so far, to enter in the clouds resistance yet... First support to look at in the 4 hours time frame is @ 41'166 and a closing below that level would increase the risk, calling for further downside towards the 4 hours clouds bottom area, around 40'300 (MBB being @ 40'467 and KS @ 40'150 Globally the psychological 40'000 former resistance level became now the NEW SUPPORT which should not be broken in order to keep going the ongoing upside bias ! 1 HOUR (H1) Short term support @ 41'277 (currently under attack) ahead of 41'166; 38.2% Fib ret of the last rally @ 40'53 , 50% @ 40'158 and 61.8% @ 39'781, this Fibonacci retracement zone match with the hourly clouds support area, which, also, perfectly corroborate the important 40'000 support level previously mentioned in longer time frame. Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC- DAILY - STILL IN THE CLOUDS...WEEKLY (W1) Upcoming weekly closing may or may not give more clues for next week price action... Indeed, THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS ZONE SUPPORT has been, during this week, briefly broken but, so far, the BTC managed to hold in the clouds; therefore, as you can easily imagine, a WEEKLY CLOSING, below the bottom of the clouds @ 39'885 would, once again, be seen as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL in this WEEKLY TIME FRAME , putting the focus to the TRIANGLE (in progress) target @ 37'235 ( see daily comments below, ) ahead of the weekly ongoing uptrend support line around 36'350. KEY STRATEGIC PIVOT LEVEL (WEEKLY) : 28'600 Being both the former low reached in June 2021 and more important the TRIGGER LEVEL OF THE MAJOR DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! On the upside, a weekly closing above 41'279 or event better above MBB @ 42'872 would neutralise, for some time, the ongoing downside risk. Please note the large thickness of the clouds (39'895 - 50'551) which means, resistance area very difficult to break ! RSI below 50, @ 45.05 and LAGGING LINE in the middle of the clouds. DAILY (D1) Currently traded in the middle of the ongoing TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS and still in the bottom zone of the daily clouds support area. As mentioned yesterday, the implication of the triangle breakout would trigger a move of 2'339 points, targeting respectively : UPSIDE : 43'659 DOWNSIDE. : 37'235 RSI below 650, @ 41.31 LAGGING LINE below both KS and TS. Interesting to note that in this DAILY time frame, the level of the T enkan-Sen (@ 41'334) match roughly with the level of weekly Kijun-Sen @ 41'279 , that is why this resistance area should not be underestimated. 4 HOURS (H4) Still moving sideways in a narrow trading range, below the Mid Bollinger and more important below the very thick clouds resistance area (40'698-43'209) ! 1 HOUR (H1) Monitor and watch price action around the clouds which are becoming very thin, meaning fragile on both side... Have a nice Sunday. Take care IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-TRIANGLE ! 43'659 & 37'235...Looking at the DAILY picture, we can see a TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS, with the breakout levels , currently and respectively : @ 41'320 on the upside and @ 39'574 on the downside I MPLICATIONS ON A DAILY BASIS CLOSING LEVEL : upside breakout : TARGET @ 43'659 (currently the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen) downside breakout out : TARGET @ 37'235 (currently, roughly the ongoing weekly uptrend support line, starting @ 32'950, low reached in January. RSI , below 50, @ 41.44 LAGGING LINE attempting to hold above both KS and TS Continue to monitor closely price action and especially, WATCH THE CLOUDS !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Caught in a relatively narrow trading range which confirm growing uncertainty about further development. Currently attempting to upside breakout the Kijun-Sen with difficulty... successive small candles !!! RSI also below 50, @ 46.23 LAGGING LINE far below the clouds and still below both TS and KS Last but not least the 4 hours clouds resistance area is very thick (41'468-23'338) which means very strong resistance zone which should be broken to really confirm a reversal. 1 HOUR (H1) Currently attempting to breakout the clouds to the upside without great success for the time being... On this hourly time frame, watch the clouds too (40'255 - 40'570) as a sustainable breakout of one of those levels would give the direction for further short term price action. Do you like my analysis ? ifYES, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) to add Ironman8848 on your following list (if it is not done yet :-) Have a great long weekend and have fun All the best Take care IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
bBTC-CAUGHT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND KIJUNSEN DAILY (D1) The BTC is caught between two important levels, which are : on the downside, the DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT ZONE (39'900-40'100 on the upside, the WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN (in overlay in the daily chart ) Therefore, ONLY A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE LEVELS WOULD SHOW THE NEXT DIRECTION. WEEKLY (W1) In this regard, the upcoming weekly closing level, would also be important for further development in the weekly time frame as the weekly clouds bottom level, also coincides with the important and psychological 40'000 support level . 4 HOURS (H4) The 4 hourly KIJUN-SEN, act perfectly well as resistance level so far (currently @ 40'816) and should still be seen as a good leading intraday indicator for further development. The BTC is currently in this time frame, below bot MBB and KS , which should be seen as the first resistances levels to break before the Kijun-Sen, slightly higher. 1 HOUR (H1) After having filled the 50% Fib ret @ 41'334, in reaching yesterday, an intraday high @ 41'557, the BTC failed to maintain its upside bias and went down in falling, again, below the hourly clouds and below the MBB , which is currently under upside breakout attempt. The HOURLY CLOUDS AREA (40'415-40'936) remains the zone to watch at very carefully as short term resistance zone and on the downside, monitor the former double bottom lows slightly above the 39'000 area. IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
BTC-DAILY-RECOVERY ? YES OR NO ...WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing price action is showing the BITCOIN , roughly in the middle of the clouds support area (48'517 - 38'152); as long as the BTC is not able to recover and hold on a weekly basis closing above the top of the clouds area, the downside risk is still alive. DAILY (D1) After having reached, yesterday an intraday low of 42'741, the BTC managed, for the time being to hold and close above the important support level (KIJUN-SEN) @ 42'900 , also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last rally which started @ 37'567 on March 13th towards a high of 48'234 reached on March 28th. As you can see, on this daily chart , the yesterday's price action triggered a little white candle (very small body) which is showing some lack of momentum, uncertainty and indecision for further development. RSI still below 50, @ 48.61. LAGGING LINE in a sideways mode, still above the daily clouds. UPSIDE : As long as the BTC close on a daily basis above the KIJUN-SEN support line it should be seen as OK and in order to neutralise this still existing downside risk, the BTC needs to rise above, at least the middle of the long black bearish candle@ 44'350 of April 6th, which also coincides with the former downtrend resistance line starting from the former high of 45'850 - MID BOLLINGER BAND (my barometer !) @ 44'771 ! DOWNSIDE : On the other side, a failure to close above 42'900 would be seen as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL, calling for lower levels towards the next support @ 41'641 (61.8% Fib retracement ahead of the very thin daily clouds support area ,(around the psychological 40'000), which is also the 78.6% Fibonacci extension level. 4 HOURS (H4) Below the clouds and MBB and KS . LAGGING LINE below the clouds, KS and TS too. SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION caught between 42'750 and 44'000. Watch the Tenkan-Sen (43'385) on the downside as first support and MBB (44'590) on the upside as first significant resistance. (Corroboration with the daily view) 1 HOUR (H1) BELOW THE CLOUDS in a sideways mode (H1 clouds resistance area between 43'750 and 45'000 Once again WATCH THE CLOUDS IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-DAILY-KIJUN-SEN IN SUPPORT...DAILY (D1) As expected, the failure to stay and hold above both MID BOLLINGER BAND and the top of the TRIANGLE PATTERN, triggered a downside acceleration towards the next support (42'900) mentioned in my yesterday's analysis in making an intraday low early in the morning @ 42'741. The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 42'900 of the 37'567-48'234 rally has been filled and after this decline it is likely to see some technical natural rebound which is expected in the current bearish environment to be relatively limited. Indeed, in order to neutralise the ongoing and persisting downside risk, the BITCOIN should now, at least recover very quickly above the former support area (44'500) which became now the new resistance to cross over and hold above it; slightly above, the next level to watch at very carefully is the TENKAN-SEN (or conversion line) @ 45'237 which worked, as you can see perfectly well in the past either as a support or as resistance (meaning BULLISH above and BEARISH below !) A failure to close on a daily basis above 42'900 would confirm further downside in the cards , calling for lower levels towards 41'641 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of the psychological 40'000 area which also coincides with the very thin DAILY CLOUDS AREA... RSI below 50, @ 47.35 LAGGING LINE failed to stay above the triangle resistance line and crossed under ! 4 HOURS (H4) Far below the clouds; below MBB, KS and TS too ! RSI in oversold territory,,, and may stay for a while in this mode (check potential bullish divergence ! LAGGING LINE also well below the clouds and TS and KS In order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk in this H4 time frame, the BITCOIN should at least recover and hold on a H4 closing basis above TS (44'428) 1 HOUR (H1) Below the clouds, TS, MBB and KS, RSI in a OVERSOLD TERRITORY, but NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE DETECTED YET. WAIT FOR THIS FIRST SIGNAL WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER A DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATION AND AT LEAST A SHORT TERM RECOVERY In this hourly time frame, a recovery above the KS, currently @ 44'159 would temporary neutralise this ongoing downside risk and if such kind of price action occurs it should be confirmed by the breakout of the H4 TS @ 44'428 previously mentioned in H4 analysis. Do you like my analysis ? Do you think it bring you additional value to your trading activity ? If your answer is YES, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TRADING VIEW (the best charting application available at the moment)in adding IRONMAN8848 to your following list. Last but not least for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW, please sign up on the following link (several plans available from basis, free of charge to more sophisticated, against payment) : www.tradingview.com IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - DAILY - WATCH MBB !DAILY (D1) The yesterday's failure to hold above both ongoing uptrend support line and the TENKAN-SEN triggered a downside move which pushed the BTC towards a low so far @ 44'419, having tested during the night both the MID BOLLINGER BAND support and the former downtrend line (top of the triangle pattern !) Ongoing today's price action will be important and especially its daily closing level; indeed a closing above 44'500 would keep live the TRIANGLE (pullback consolidation) and a closing below would add more trouble putting the focus on lower levels towards the 42'900 (KIJUN-SEN) % 50% Fib re t 37'567 - 48'234) RSI on a downside move mode and LAGGING LINE too ! In order to neutralise this ongoing selling pressure the BTC should at least recover and hold above the TENKAN-SEN @ 46'186 on a daily closing basis ! which if occurs would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the CLOUDS which are very THIN, meaning also very fragile on both side ! Currently the top of the H4 CLOUDS @ 45'958 coincides roughly with the level to break on the daily chart and globally corroborate the global picture. Watch the clouds as a failure to recover and hold above it would increase the selling pressure towards the next support levels previously mentioned in D1... 1 HOUR (H1) Below the CLOUDS too; currently trying to recover above the TENKAN-SEN (@ 45'267). A successful breakout on a hourly closing basis of this level would open the door for 45'810 (KS) ahead of MBB @ 45'955 (also top of the H4 clouds) No bullish divergence detected yet suggesting that recent and current short term price action is, for the time being, corrective only... IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - UNCERTAINTY AND INDECISION ...WEEKLY (W1) The weekly picture is showing a BREAKOUT ATTEMPT to cross over the top of the WEEKLY CLOUDS resistance area @ 47'407- Wait for either VALIDATION or I NVALIDATION by the ongoing weekly closing level. DAILY (D1) Sideways price action caught in a relatively narrow trading range which is showing some uncertainty and indecision about further development. Yesterday's closing price @ 45'820 was below the TENKAN-SEN (45'925) and today's ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt above the TS, which today @ 46'167after having been supported by the ongoing uptrend support line, currently @ 45'565 LEVELS TO WATCH (daily closing basis ! : UPSIDE : R1 :46'167 R2 : 47'218 R3 : 48'234 A DAILY CLOSING ABOVE 48'234 WOULD CONFIRM FURTHER UPSIDE TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 50'000 RESISTANCE LEVEL AHEAD OF THE VERY IMPORTANT 50'975 LEVEL WHICH IS THE WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN ! DOWNSIDE : S1 : 45'565 S2 : 44'159 (38.2% Fib ret) S3 : 42'900 (50% Fib ret & KS) RSI @ 61.36, below its uptrend support line and the LAGGING LINE moving in a SIDEWAYS mode. A DAILY CLOSING BELOW 44'650 WOULD PUT IN TROUBLE THE STILL VALID TRIANGLE PATTERN TARGETING 57'620 4 HOURS (H4) Currently roughly IN THE MIDDLE OF THE H4 CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA, caught between the KIJUN-SEN in support @ 45'982 and the TENKAN-SEN in resistance @ 46'391. Watch the upcoming H4 closing to get more clues about further development then watch the CLOUDS and respectively : 46'785 on the upside 44'493 on the downside A FAILURE TO HOLD AND CLOSE ON H4 time frame above the clouds bottom level @ 44'493 would corroborate the implications previously mentioned in D1 1 HOUR (H1) WATCH THE CLOUDS TOO as a good leading indicator in this H1 time frame. The bottom of the clouds coinciding also with the H1 Tenkan-Sen level @ 45'985 ! As usual monitor closely intraday shorter time frames which will help you to catch early signals which will validate or invalidate the implication of the scenario mentioned in longer time frames. Have a nice Sunday (Winter is back in Switzerland...) All the best and take care IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki www.tradingview.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE !WEEKLY (W1) Upcoming weekly closing level would be very important to look at, as it will either VALIDATE or INVALIDATE the upside BREAKOUT OF THE TOP OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA @ 47'407 !!! The Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) @ 44'555, briefly broken yesterday, worked perfectly well as the support level in this weekly time frame DAILY (D1) Nice recovery seen yesterday ! indeed, after having briefly broken an important support level (see my last analysis below), the BITCOIN managed to reverse, confirming, for the time being the PULLBACK I have been talking about and which for the time being let the TRIANGLE PATTERN ALIVE for a technical target of 57'620 ! Nevertheless, as long as the former high @ 48'234 is not broken on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, the downside pressure remains... The TENKAN-SEN @ 45'925 should be seen, now as the first support in this daily picture and if you look back, so far has worked perfectly well as LEADING SUPPORT INDICATOR. A daily closing below this level should not be underestimated as that should be seen as the first warning signal for a TREND REVERSAL which should be confirmed by the breakout of the ongoing uptrend support level, currently @ 45'245. PIVOT LEVELS DAILY TIME FRAME : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE @ 42'900 (KIJUN-SEN) 2) ON THE UPIDE @ 48'234 (FORMER HIGH) BREAKOUT IMPLICATIONS OF ONE OR THE OTHER PIVOT LEVEL : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE 41'642 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 37'567-48'234 rally) ahead of the psychological 40'000 support level which also coincides with the daily clouds support area. 2) ON THE UPSIDE, psychological 50'000 resistance level ahead of 50'975 (WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN !!!). A crossover this level would confirm further upside towards the TRIANGLE TARGET @ 57'620 4 HOURS (H4) The CLOUDS hold and rejected yesterday the downside breakout attempt; the strong recovery which followed with along white bullish candle 44'734 - 46'739 in 4 hours) crossed over strongly the former ongoing uptrend support line which had been changed to a new resistance level. The BITCOIN is currently traded around the Mid Bollinger Band @ 46'492 and the upcoming H4 closing level may give more clues for further intraday development. On the downside, watch the CLOUDS and the TENKAN-SEN @ 45'731 1 HOUR (H1) Despite a RSI convergence detected at the bottom level (44'244) the BITCOIN managed to recover... and this short term recovery has been validated by firstly the upside breakout of the Tenkan-Sen, the MBB and the KS. Currently above the hourly clouds but already below the Tenkan-Sen (46'661) Watch closely this hourly price action and also shorter intraday time frames to get more clues for further development on both sides !!! Mid Bollinger Band @ 46'140 is the next support level ahead the hourly clouds support area, currently between 46'000and 45'500 Do you like my analysis and do you think it bring you some added value ? If YES, do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either to add IRONMAN8848 to your following list. For those who do not have access yet to TRADING VIEW (the BEST CHARTING APPLICATION available at the moment - several plan, starting from free of charge with the possibility, against payment to upgrade the basis version - Trust me it is a VERY POWERFUL TOOL :-) Are you interested ? Very simple, sign up : www.tradingview.com Have a look at my Trading View profile to get the link to my private analysis. Have a nice weekend, take care and all the best Many thanks for your support IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-CRITICAL LEVEL !As expected and mentioned in previous analysis (see related ideas below), after having briefly broken the 48'000 area (intraday high @ 48'234) a correction took place over the last couple of days and went down towards a V ERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL (cluster of of the 2 trend lines on both sides around the 44'700 in reaching an intraday low, so far @ 44'244, nearly filling the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 44'159 ! So what next ? Well, as previously mentioned, this 44'700 area should be seen as a very important support level , as a failure to hold and stay above it on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, would be taken as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL for further development and would open the door for lower levels towards the 43'000-42'700; the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 37'567-4'234, being @ 42'900. RSI @ 55.59, below its uptrend support line and the LAGGING LINE crossed under the former downtrend line (triangle resistance line). Currently below the TENKAN-SEN (@ 45'437) and also important to note the DARK CLOUD COVER pattern triggered yesterday with its closing below 45'709, @ 45'517 CONCLUSION : In order to neutralise this ongoing downside price action, the BITCOIN should recover and close later on today at least above 45'437 or even better above the ongoing new downtrend line resistance, currently @ 46'365. Such kind of price action would also confirm this corrective/consolidation move, seen as a PULLBACK towards the breakout (seen on March 27th, long white bullish candle) of the triangle pattern and therefore would also keep alive this triangle formation, calling for higher levels. A FAILURE TO DO IT would put the focus to the 43'000-42'700 area and by the way would put in trouble the activation of the triangle pattern !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Below the Mid Bollinger Band , the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen and currently in the middle of the H4 clouds support area (45'476-44'141). RSI sharply down @ 39.77 and LAGGING LINE below both the Tenkan-Sen and the Kijun-Sen. WATCH THE CLOUDS AS A GOOD SUPPORT INDICATOR AND THE TENKAN-SEN (45'934), KIJUN-SEN (46'239) AND MBB (46'868) AS RESISTANCES TO BREAK ! 1 HOUR (H1) The failure to recover above the thin hourly clouds resistance area triggered. yesterday's afternoon this downside move which started above the 47'000 area towards its intraday low, so far @ 44'244. The LAGGING LINE is far below the cluster of TS and KS and also below the CLOUDS ! WATCH RSI , to detect potential bullish divergence ( RSI still converging to the downside for the moment !) In this hourly time frame, a recovery and a closing level on H1 basis above the TS (45'060) would be the first positive signal calling for a potential short term reversal. A confirmation would be given by the breakout of the 46'000 area, neXt resistance being the HOURLY VERY THIN CLOUDS (47'200-47'350 IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-H4-CONSOLIDATION IN PROGRESS...4 HOURS (H4) The expected consolidation is in progress with a potential short term double top pattern in progress too. Indeed, the trigger level of this potential formation is @ 46'897 and a failure to hold on H4 closing basis above that level would open the door for 45'560 which would be in line which what I mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday. (see related idea below). b]Tenkan-Sen @ 47'350 ahead of MBB @ 46'601 are the supports levels to monitor and to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame. Important to note that the ongoing H4 support trend line is currently also around the 45'000 are a, which mean that as long as we hold above it, in this 4 hours time frame, recent and current price action should be seen as a corrective move in still a BULLISH TREND. Looking at the DAILY PICTUR E, we can see that the middle level of the LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE of March 27th is @ 45'709 and a daily closing below that level would potentially trigger a DARK CLOUD COVER and therefore increase the selling pressure towards the CLUSTER of the daily Tenkan-Sen (44'567), the former downtrend line resistance (44'656) (also the top line of the triangle pattern) and the ongoing daily support trend line (44'250). On the upside, a successful cross over the former recent highs (48'128 & 48'234) would invalidate the ongoing downside risk and would open the door for higher levels towards the psychological 50'000 resistance area. On the DAILY PICTURE, A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF FIRSTLY THE 44'000 area (cluster previously mentioned), would be the first warning signal with below the KEY SUPPORT LEVEL @ 42'701 (Kijun-Sen) WEEKLY (W1) The next weekly closing level would also be important as it will either validate or invalidate the breakout of the weekly top clouds resistance area @ 47'407. A weekly closing above this level should be seen as the first postitve signal, calling for higher levels. As usual, monitor closely the price action on shorter intraday time frames (on H1, watch the clouds support area !), to get additional and earlier signal (s) which will help you to act accordingly in the time frames you are looking for. Have a nice trading day. Take care IRONMAN884 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US 30 YEARS-WEEKLY-UPSIDE BREAKOUT ! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021. RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS ! On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the weekly clouds too which is supportive for further development. Currently above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 2.4130 % of the 3.4650 - 0,71 downside move, Next Fibonacci extension (78.6%) is @ 2.8750 % former congestion seen in 2019, 2018, 2018 and earlier. DAILY (D1) Ongoing (yield) uptrend price action still alive with its first significant support level @ 2.50 (cluster of Tenkan-Sen and ongoing support trend line); below there is 2 levels to look at very carefully : S2 : @ 2.3910 (MBB) S3 : @ 2.3570 (KS) A BREAKOUT OF THE LATTER LEVEL WOULD PUT THE FOCUS TO THE DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (2.25-2.07) On the upside, there is a potential double & triple top in progress, coupled with a potential RSI bearish divergence too. Therefore, ongoing price action and more important, next daily closing level will may be validate or invalidate the potential reversal previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE & TRIPLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! Indeed, recent rallies above the 2.64 % level triggered a potential double & triple top which is coupled also with a RSI bearish divergence... The H4 uptrend support line is still alive and in this H4 time frame the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.5720 ahead of the cluster of KIJUN-SEN and MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 2.55 should be seen as the first support area to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame. A failure to hold above 2.55 would put the focus on the H4 clouds support area (2.48-2.41) , 2.4240 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last upside move starting @ 2.0690 towards the high so far @ 2.6440. Below the 50% Fib ret is @ 2.3560 which is also the Kijun-Sen on the 4 hours time frame. 1 HOUR (H1) Wonderful school study case shown on the hourly chart with a DOUBLE TOP in progress (second top higher than the first !) coupled with a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE. TRIGGER LEVEL @ 2.5650. - Target if broken 2.48 which corroborate the previous view expressed on H4 Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US30Y
by Ironman8848
BTC - WEEKLY- BREAKOUT ?WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE CANDLE , usually a BULLISH SIGNAL with its weekly closing level (@ 46'864) for the first time, since the beginning of 2022, above the WEEKLY CLOUDS TOP ZONE (@ 45'937) and also the MID BOLLINGER BAND (45'505). RSI above 50 @ 53.21 and the LAGGING LINE above the weekly clouds with still the TENKAN-SEN as last resistance level to break... In addition the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 46'721 of the 69'000 - 32'950 downside move has been filled and with the top of the weekly clouds in resistance too, we may see some consolidation within the clouds. Should the Bitcoin continue its upside move, then the NEXT KEY VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL will be @ 50'975 as it is the WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN & 50% Fibonacci retracement previously mentioned. A WEEKLY CLOSING ABOVE 50'975 WOULD DEFINITELY CONFIRM A WEEKLY TREND REVERSAL IN REOPENING THE DOOR FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS !!! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action has invalidated the RISING WEDGE PATTERN i mentioned in my previous analysis in making an intraday peak @ 47'766 so far. The upside of the BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN has also be broken for the first time and today's price action and more important its closing level will be very important to look at as it will validate or invalidate the recent upside breakout. RSI @ 69.61 and LAGGING LINE far above the clouds. 4 HOURS (H4) Strong move seen yesterday's evening in one H4 candle (from 44'864 to 46'950) - long white candle) which broke the former high @ 45'137 First significant support to look at in this time frame is @ 46'030 (TENKAN-SEN) ahead of the KIJUN-SEN @ 45'201 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 44'859 1 HOUR (H1) As mentioned in H4 a long white candle breakout the former ongoing sideways channel and crossed over both the KIJUN-SEN and the TENKAN-SEN, which now become the new supports levels to watch at and which are @ 46'815 (TS) and 46'111 (KS): MBB @ 45'792. H1 clouds support area 44'595-44'377 IRONMAN884. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC- 1 HOUR - SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION...Today, we are going to look at the hourly time frame which is showing a sideways price action between the former high @ 45'<37 and the bottom of the hourly clouds support zone, currently @ 43'900. RSi above 50, @ 54.58. LAGGING LINE is looking tired, also moving in a sideways mode. Currently below the Tenkan-Sen (44'765) and still slightly above both KIjun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band (44'555). As already mentioned in my yesterday's analysis (see related ideas below), and in oder to confirm further upside, the BTC need to clearly break and hold, ideally on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS the former high reached 2 days ago @ 45'137. Such kind of successful price action would put the focus on the weekly Mid Bollinger Band@ 45'193, ahead of the TOP OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS RESISTANCE ZONE, currently @ 45'937; AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION OF THE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKLY LAGGING LINE WOULD ALSO ADD MORE VALUE FOR A CONTINUATION TO THE UPSIDE. A failure to hold above the hourly clouds support, currently @ 43'900, would open the door for lower levels towards 43'371 (38.2% Fib ret) - 43'458 is the level of the 4 hours Kijun-Sen !), ahead of 42'826 (50& Fib ret). Looking briefly at the DAIYL PICTURE, we can still see this RISING WEDGE PATTERN IN PROGRESS being in this BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN on which the downtrend resistance line is under attack. As previously mentioned a DAILY CLOSING LEVEL above the former high (45'137) would be the first significant warning signal which should of course be validated. Watch if the usual pullback will hold (CONSOLIDATION ) or not. ( POTENTIAL BULL TRAP ! ) Do you like my analysis ? Do you think it bring you some added value ? If it is the case, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either to add Ironman8848 in your following list. Last but not least for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW yet (one of the best CHARTING APPLICATION available in the market yet :-), please click on the following link (several plan available, the first plan being free of charge) : www.tradingview.com HAVE A NICE SUNDAY AND ALL THE BEST. Take care and have fun. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-240 MIN - WATCH 45'200 AND 43'000 !On the 4 hours chart, there are 2 levels to watch at carefully which are the following : UPSIDE. : 45'200 DOWNSIDE : 43'000 Indeed, a sustainable breakout of one of those 2 levels, would : 1) either confirm further upside (in breaking the former high @ 45'137 which would open the door for higher levels towards the top of the weekly clouds area, currently @ 45'937, by the way the upcoming weekly closing level will also be very important to look at as it may or may not validate the breakout of the upside weekly to clouds resistance level ! 2) confirm the failure to maintain its upside bias in crossing down below the ongoing support trend line (around the 43'000 level) which also, roughly coincides with the Kijun-Sen level @ 43'019 Current price action is showing an attempt to breakout the Tenkan-Sen (@ 44'377) which, if broken, on a 4 hours closing basis, would be the first signal of a potential short term reversal in putting the focus towards the next support previously mentioned. RSI is looking "tired and the LAGGING LINE is losing some momentum too... Have a nice weekend and all the best. Take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - DAILY - RISING WEDGE IN PROGRESS !As mentioned in my yesterday's analysis,(RSI bearish divergence), the successful breakout of the former high @ 43'492 triggered further upside move towards, as expected, a high so far above the 45'000 area, with an intraday high so far 45'137. We can see on this DAILY chart to different patterns : 1) A BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN (currently attempting to breakout to the upside) 2) A RISING WEDGE FORMATION IN PROGRESS (potentially warning bearish signal !) What does it mean ? Well, today's closing level will may be bring more clues about the future development as the 44'800-45'000 area should be seen as an important zone to break at it represents on one hand, the downtrend line resistance of the triangle pattern previously mentioned and on the other hand the top of the rising wedge pattern in progress. Therefore, a failure to successfully breakout the 45'000 area would put again a renewed selling pressure with 42'600 as first support level, ahead of 41'250 and 40'671, the latter level being the MID BOLLINGER BAND. ON THE UPSIDE, the weekly MBB @ 45'408 will be the first resistance level to look at ahead of the top of the weekly clouds, currently @ 45'937. GLOBALLY ON A WEEKLY PICTURE, WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET, THE KIJUN-SEN STILL IN RESISTANCE ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC- 240 MINUTES - RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE !Today, we are going to look at the 240 minutes chart where a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE has been identified. In addition to this signal, a potential double top formation is also in progress with its trigger level @ 41'779, just above the level of 41'705 I mentioned to watch yesterday on my DAILY ANALYSIS. So watch now carefully ongoing price action in shorter time frame which will help you to get more clues and which will validate or invalidate this potential double top in progress. First support to look at is @ 42'600 (TS) , ahead the ongoing support trend line (in green), currently @ 42'280, which also coincides with the Mid Bollinger Band and which usually works quite well as leading indicator; slightly below 42'000, there is the Kijun-Sen @ 41'971 which is the last support before the double top trigger level previously mentioned @ 41'779 A breakout of this level would target a downside move towards the the 40'000 area which is also by the way the bottom of the clouds area in this H4 time frame. On the UPSIDE , a successful sustainable recovery above the former high @ 43'492 would neutralise this ongoing downside risk and would put the focus on the former high above 45'000 seen at the beginning of March. IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-WATCH 41'705 !Sharp recovery seen yesterday-long white candle, (intraday high @ 43'337) with a daily closing @ 42'393. So what next ? Watch and monitor carefully ongoing price action and especially today's closing level ! Indeed, a failure to close above 41'705 (middle level of yesterday's long white bullish candle) would trigger a DARK CLOUD COVER (potential reversal pattern) which should be confirmed by by a breakout of the Kijun-Sen, @ 41'174. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last 37'568-43'337 rally is @ 41'133 Tenkan-Sen @ 40'740 and MBB @ 40'115 (61.8 % Fib ret @ 39'771, middle of the daily clouds support area !) RSI @ 55.03 and LAGGING LINE did not breakout the clouds resistance yet On the upside, a daily closing above 42'500 would neutralise the ongoing still existing dowside risk and would open the door for yesterday's high ahead of the former downtrend line resistance (in red) currently around 44'635 GLOBAL PICTURE IS SHOWING A BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS As usual, watch at shorter time frames to get intermediate clues which will validate or invalidate implications above mentioned in the DAILY analysis. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - DAILY - WARNING !VERY THIN DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT...WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action, long white candle, could be seen, as first glance as a positive signal, in this time frame. The only negative point is that the BTC did not manage to recover above the high of the previous week (42'592) !. indeed the high seen was slightly lower @ 42'405 Therefore, this failure is still confirming the STRATEGIC BEARISH STRUCTURE in the WEEKLY TIME FRAME RSI is below 50, @ 45.60 LAGGING LINE is still in the clouds and also below both the TS and KS LEVELS TO WATCH ON WEEKLY CLOSING BASIS ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : MBB @ 45'209 & CLOUDS TOP @ 45'937 DOWNSIDE : TS @ 39'400 & CLOUDS BOTTOM @ 37'710 DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) with an intraday low reached @ 40'930, slightly above the THIN DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA , which was yesterday between 40'817 and 40'268 and which is currently between 40'238 and 39'772. MID BOLLINGER BAND , currently @ 40'219 should once again be seen as a very good indicator for further development, following slightly below by the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'986 and finaly by the Kijun-Sen @ 39'828. Last but not least this CLUSTER SUPPORT coincides also exacly with the DAILY CLOUDS and therefore should not be underestimated on both side , respectively firstly as THE DAILY SUPPORT AREA and if broken as the new resistance area to look at. In order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk the BTC, should at least recover and hold on a daily closing basis above 41'750. which is the middle of the yesterday's bearish candle as such kind of price action would trigger a PIERCING LINE and therefore, would neutralise this ongoing downside risk in reopening, potentially the door for a new attempt of crossing over the former highs (42'405 &4 2'592) On the downside, a failure to hold above the CLUSTER previously mentioned would add further selling pressure and put the focus on lower levels towards 39'400 (TS weekly), then towards the former daily congestion support (37'600-37'000) RSI slightly above 50, @ 51.58 LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the clouds and still above both the KS and TS 4 HOURS (H4) The target (40'703) of the double top pattern, I mentioned yesterday in my previous analysis has been reached and the 50% Fib ret @ 40'558 too, intraday low being @ 40'516. After this recent downside move and those short term targets reached, a recovery attempt took place, which has been triggered by a RSI bullish divergence triggered on shorter time frame (H1). Watch 41'238 - 41'680 as short term recovery targets. H4 MID BOLLINGER BAND IS @ 41'461 and a H4 closing above this level would be the first warning signal of a short time bottom in place On the other side, a failure to hold above the 40'500 area would put the focus towards the H4 clouds support around the psychological 40'000 level (50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'986 and 61.8% @ 39'415, which also coincides with the weekly tenkan-sen @ 39'400 1 HOUR (H1) Watch the CLOUDS as resistance level (roughly the Fib ret too) IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-H4-DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !Today we are going to look carefully at the price action on the 4 hours chart which can validate or invalidate further upside as the BTC is facing an important resistance area to break on a DAILY BASIS (42'500),last closing being just below this level @ 42'235. So, this 4 hours time frame is showing 2 important things : 1) a double top in progress with its trigger level @ 41'554 (also H1 clouds support area)- breakout confirmed on H4 closing basis would target 40'703 - if breakout occured watch and monitor pullback attempt closely ! 2) RSI divergence On the upside , a successful recovery above the Tenkan-Sen (41'979) would neutralise, on this H4 time horizon the ongoing downside risk and would reopen the door for higher levels. On the downside, the former downtrend line resistance, currently around the 41'000 area is the first support, ahead of 40'703 (DT target) and the 50% Fib ret @ 40'557 (37'568-42'405) A DAILY CLOSING LEVEL below the top of the clouds @ 40'800 would be seen as a negative signal for the upcoming trading session )s) ! On a weekly basis, the main support level remains the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'400 ahead of the weekly clouds support bottom @ 37'637; and on the upside, in this time frame watch the top of the clouds @ 45'433 which also coincides with the top of an ongoing weekly downtrend channel. Have nice Sunday. IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-BROADENING WEDGE !WEEKLY (W1) The high of previous week @ 42'592 has nearly been retested again with a high reached yesterday @ 42'362 A weekly closing level above 42'592 would neutralise the downside risk in that time frame and increase the chance for a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action between the cluster support(40'200-39'800) with a low reached @ 40'068 and the intraday high reached @ 42'362 with a daily closing level @ 41'794, for the first time, since a while, above the DAILY CLOUDS TOP RESISTANCE LEVEL @ 40'800 . Yesterday's price action is the first warning signal of a TREND REVERSAL ans a mentioned in W1 a daily closing above 42'262 would confirm it and would open the door for higher levels Therefore today's ongoing price action should be monitor and watch at very carefully with the focus on the daily closing level which would validate or invalidate further upside move ! RSI @ 55.10 LAGGING LINE above both TS and KS but still i the clouds. 4 HOURS (H4) Above the clouds, the KS, the TS and the MId Bollinger Band @ 41'089 which should be seen, i this H4 time frame as the first significant support level and a failure to hold above it on H4 closing basis would increase the selling pressure in putting the focus to the 40'000 support area, which also coincides with the top of the 4 HOURS CLOUDS ! 1 HOUR (H1) Above the clouds too, but both MBB and TS already, currently, under downside breakout attack ! Watch upcoming H1 closing to get validation or invalidation of this breakout IRONMAN884 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-DAILY-CLOUDS STILL IN RESISTANCE !WEEKLY (W1) Still in the weekly clouds roughly in the middle of it and still above the TENKAN-SEN (@ 39'400) which should be watch carefully on the next weekly closing level. Indeed, a failure to close above it would put the focus again to the bottom of the clouds around 37'600 (former congestion support on daily chart) DAILY (D1) Daily clouds still in resistance and the 40'800 area should be seen as a KEY PIVOT LEVEL for further development ! Indeed, a successful and sustainable breakout of that level (top of the daily clouds) would open the door for higher levels towards the former high @ 41'694 reached two days ago ahead of the 42'500 area (1 month top of the clouds !) and then towards the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around 44'200. A failure to do it, would directly put the focus to the CLUSTER SUPPORT ZONE 40'200-39'800 and a breakout of 39'800 on a daily closing basis would add further selling pressure calling for further downside towards the 37'600-37'000 former daily congestion support as already previously mentioned in W1. RSI slightly above 50, @ 52.56 LAGGING LINE in the clouds, currently testing the TS and KS support. 4 HOURS (H4) Above the clouds and currently traded around the Tenkan-Sen level (40'898) RSI @ 59.29 LAGGING LINE still in the clouds and above the Kijun-Sen In this 4 hours time frame, watch the clouds (39'880-39'232)on the downside as first significant support area and the former high @ 41'694 as the first resistance. A failure, on a 4 hours closing basis, to recover and hold above 40'898 would add further selling pressure for the upcoming trading hour (s). 1 HOUR (H1) Watch the clouds which worked perfectly well, so far as a good leading indicator in this short term time frame. A failure to hold above 39'900 (1 hour closing basis), would be seen as the first warning signal calling for further downside as previously mentioned in longer time frames. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848