Milk Bullish Bat off of SharkOctober Milk surging upwards and coming near oversold mark and double top creating what could be an end of a Shark pattern. We are now into August and Milk will start picking up steam for the school year. Upside target around 17.66 -17.74. Tops for this market was back in Feb 2 at 17.85 where it hit a roof.
Milk
Milk Moving into its next phase after SharkSeptember Milk consolidated for a few days and now is looking like it may start to rise. Initial projection is a bearish Gartley. Next upside target is the 20 day moving average around 16.83. Milk is still looking bearish, but require confirmation on the 20 day.
A2M Soars before EOFYIn this graph, I tested a programmer’s indicator called “ADX and DI with SMA on this stock.
The crossover worked well by its default SMA value (10). Price actions showed it performed as a trend. Therefore, we apply Fibonacci Extension to see where we are looking to take profit.
When to buy ?
It really depends what investor you are: Aggressive or Prudent ?
You saw a simple triangle breakout in this graph that you may see many times in Forex. Dark cloud pattern on point 2 (blue), but surprisingly, the stock price didn’t fell under 40 EMA. It performed a reversal at point 4 (black) instead. You will also notify that point 4 was also lying on the top of the Fibonacci channel which gives some sort of support.
If you were a prudent trader, you would trade triangle breakout near point 3 (blue).
If you were an aggressive trader, you would trade the swing low near point 4 (black).
When to sell ?
Any Fibonacci Extensions levels. For this case, I expect $4.20.
If I sell it now, I have 17% in 4 days
I’d expect to sell it near $4.20, which gives me 27%
Risk:
Watch the DI- value carefully in this indicator. DI- is near 10, it implicit the current stock price may reach an overbought level. Is this always true? Again, there are no indicators tell you stock price up or down 100% correct. We have to do a lot of mind read in order to understand the whole picture.
Trade stock like ForexIn this graph, I tested a programmer’s indicator called “ADX and DI with SMA on this stock.
The crossover worked well by its default SMA value (10). Price actions showed it performed as a trend. Therefore, we apply Fibonacci Extension to see where we are looking to take profit.
When to buy ?
It really depends what investor you are: Aggressive or Prudent ?
You saw a simple triangle breakout in this graph that you may see many times in Forex. Dark cloud pattern on point 2 (blue), but surprisingly, the stock price didn’t fell under 40 EMA. It performed a reversal at point 4 (black) instead. You will also notify that point 4 was also lying on the top of the Fibonacci channel which gives some sort of support.
If you were a prudent trader, you would trade triangle breakout near point 3 (blue).
If you were an aggressive trader, you would trade the swing low near point 4 (black).
When to sell ?
Any Fibonacci Extensions levels. For this case, I expect $4.20.
If I sell it now, I have 17% in 4 days
I’d expect to sell it near $4.20, which gives me 27%
Risk:
Watch the DI- value carefully in this indicator. DI- is near 10, it implicit the current stock price may reach an overbought level. Is this always true? Again, there are no indicators tell you stock price up or down 100% correct. We have to do a lot of mind read in order to understand the whole picture.
A2M reaches historical highI believe most people (including myself) took their profit near $2.8 (nearly 24.3% gain in 3 weeks), this was because the price actions showed indecision around that mark.
By MACD, it was still trending upward with no crossover on 4th April.
However, by looking at Fib. Extension 150% mark, where A2M reached almost $3, showed a bit of rejection. Today's candlestick will be a critical if such rejection happens twice in this week.
I personally do not recommend Long any position.
Milk Double BottomJune Milk made a double bottom today and is showing a possible reversal. Caution should be warranted as this market may not have ended its downside yet. If it goes up, first target would be 15.94
Milk fell further into Butterfly ExtensionJune Milk fell into a Butterfly/Cypher extension Thursday and then rose today. Market not finished with the downtrend. Possible sideways progress from here until proof of direction is determined.
Right now we might have a bearish flag. Again confirmation needed for Monday. This market could extend down into 14.91.
Double bottom extending back into 2016-03-18 is where 14.91 comes. That would be a complete 161.8 extension of butterfly. This would then change the next pattern into a possible Gartley pattern, or to Bat depending on the retracement. Bat retracement to gap would be a little over 50%.
Milk Upward off of CypherJune Milk continues upward today bouncing off of Bearish Cypher C position yesterday. Looking for next upward target at 16.4 area. Potential upward target is the gap at 16.67
June Milk forming bearish BatJune Milk is forming a bearish Bat. C leg completed. If Milk drops below 15.94 this will turn into a Cypher. Monday should setup what we have here. There is a gap left open from the fall that needs closing, and almost made in on Thursday. The previous setup was a Crab that could finalize itself as far a 14.92. We will know more on Monday.
Class III Milk Bearish FlagApril Milk just created a bearish flag after a long drop off. 15.58 area would be a target for Monday. This would produce a double bottom. 15 would be a target for a bullish Butterfly. Bat comes in a 15.8 where the market comes now.
Milk found a bottomJune Milk found a bottom and bounced off. Couldn't quite make a 38.2 retracement. Bearish Gartley now the plan. Might crack 15.88 and go lower, double bottom and trend back up. To soon to tell. Tomorrow might show something better and into next week.
Class III MilkApril Milk fell to the bullish Gartley, and pulled back by half. Will probably see continued lower days before an up playing around the 16.88 to 16.50
Class III MilkApril Milk is still in a wedge downtrend/congestion. Friday may have created an evening start reversal signal. Need confirmation Monday. We also may be headed sideways on this market. Looking for a Bullish Gartley. Support at 17.04
Milk Class IIIMarch Milk still trading within the bullish flag. A symmetrical triangle within the flag is also forming. The downtrend off of the high at A is preventing a climb further. Will take a little mustard to breach. This Gartley pattern could be extended up to a max of 78.6%. If Milk climbs further this pattern will turn Cypher. Also note that open interest is falling. If prices are in a congestion range and open interest is falling, this is a bullish sign.
Class III MIlkClass III MIlk moved higher today. Still within a Gartley pattern. A downtrending wedge may be forming here unless milk can move higher and into a Butterfly pattern. The pull back today is suggests a small pull back to 17.21 or lower. Next target for bulls is 17.80
March MilkMarch Class III Milk is creating a bearish flag to fullfil a Bullish Gartley setup. A downward wedge began this possible pattern. Prices may fall to 15.95 if bears have the willingness to do so.
Happy trading.
NZDUSD: Once again, retracing for more shortsNZDUSD can be bought, it was a long against the trend a day or two ago, and if it stays above the 'Bullish if above level' you can hold longs in it and aim higher. If it breas the resistance above (the low of the Brexit day) it could go and test the 'Brexit key level' which is the level sitting at 0.71342.
I don't think it can go into a full blown uptrend, but rather, start a significant retracement in a longer term and a much stronger and sharper downtrend. So this is probably just the beginning.
You can either long here, buy dips, or if you're long, hold, look to add on dips and move stops to 0.69196. Risk 0.5-1% per trade entry, and aim to trail stops after we advance above resistance, and start thinking of shorting this market at 0.71342 with a wide stop. The preferred method would be to use no stop, and enter over 5 days after hitting this level, as long as we don't close above it, and then trade with a LOW above that range. Seeing new lows after we arrive there would confirm the downside is inminent, but we still need to see if we can in fact break that level.
As you know, I'm long precious metals for a couple days now, that's why I didn't buy this pair which is highly correlated with gold anyway. I'm also long TLT as a hedge to my equity trades, which is also correlated to this risk off theme.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
NZDCAD: Potential uptrend continuation trade$NZDCAD offers a low risk buy opportunity here. You can establish a position buying gradually at the close of each day until Friday's close. Position size should be 0.15 lots per every 10k in your account more or less. A stop loss is detrimental, but we want to see the low hold for a week here.
Potential upside is considerable, so it's worth taking this trade as a nice alpha source in your portfolio.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Class III Milk eclipsed weekly ButterflyClass III Milk found more upside on Butterfly pattern. Weekly chart shows a little more upside than daily chart to 17.5. Overbought scenario may indicate a drop soon.
A2M hit historical ResistanceMost of my friends recently have their babies and consider to buy milk producers shares.
This stock reached historical Resistance at this moment. To consider a cheaper price, why not we wait a few more days, and let the share price re-test the support zone around $2.05 ?
Technically, both Stochastic & MACD shown overbought signal.
Bellamys hit historical resistanceBellamy's Organic is Australia's leading producer hit historical resistance.
According to VectorVest AUS market, BAL.AX had a fair relative safety of 0.93 and a poor comfort index of 0.60 on 28 Nov 2016. These figures can conclude that we short BAL.
From my analysis, both Stochastic RSI and MACD are shown overbought signal.
BAL.AX hit $12.15 and may have a less chance (only if VectorVest's relative timing value RT continues to rise) to pump the share price up to $13.2 where Fib. Fan 38.2% will be another resistance level.
Don't forget the price action is at the down trend channel.
NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first.
The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com
Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon.
If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
NZDUSD: Weekly buy setupNZDUSD has a nice swing trade opportunity that can evolve into a continuation of the weekly uptrend.
Buy a break of the last session's high, stop at the low. I copied a previous rally, after the weekly got oversold to get an idea of what to expect.
The price tested Brexit support as well as an inside trendline in the weekly, so I think it's highly probable to get a sharp rally out of this zone, specially with China coming back from a week of public holidays, which will bring fresh demand for commodities, boosting asian currencies and metals.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
