Minercapitulation — Trading Ideas on TradingView

BTCUSD: Time for a correction Outlook for the remainder of the year. The ETF inflows have generally remained positive at new ATH levels, while volume remains low and price remains flat. This suggests considerable distribution from OTC sellers, namely longer-term holders, per HODL waves analysis. It's been 3 months since breaking ATH in March, with price unable to move higher. The consolidation at higher levels remains bullish until $60K is broken to the downside (foodgates moment), which would confirm the current range ($60K-70K) as longer-term distribution, rather than accumulation. First stop will likely be a re-test of the 50 Week MA around $50K after the floodgates for selling opens below $60K. With relatively low accumulation volume, I'm not expecting it to hold as support, but instead return to the 200 Week MA around $40K, likely after a re-test of previous support in order to confirm it as new resistance (around $60K). The 20 Week MA is currently around $63K, so below this level, there will already likely be an increase in selling pressure. The Weekly RSI is otherwise facing rejection from overbought levels >70, similar to late 2021 (minus the strong bearish divergence back then). The culmination of breaking the 20 WMA and confirming RSI rejection by returning to $60K, would be the catalyst for the break of support. As also noted (N.B.) the Mid Pi Cycle Top occurred in march, around $68K-$70K, with price unable to maintain the momentum above this rising MA multiplier, unlike in December 2020 at $21K.(1) The post-halving "Miner Capitulation" has also been signalled by Hash Ribbons indicator, not so dissimilar to summer 2020 that encouraged consolidation and a miner correction.(2) I'm not particularly expecting Path B to play out, unless there is a catalyst for a more full-blown capitulation, leading to a 65% haircut in price. Examples include ETF holders getting cold feet leading to panic as price goes below opening ETF prices , or otherwise some negative regulatory news. A -45% move down to $40K should otherwise be more then sufficient to build up momentum for a 2025 bull market reaching $100K+. Should price reach GETTEX:25K to $30K levels (path B), there could be a "delay" within the usual cycle, with higher parabolic prices nearer to $200K. After the 3x from 2017 to 2021 ATH, 2x seems reasonable in 2025 however ~$138K. (1) www.lookintobitcoin.com (2) capriole.com

BTC- Market structure overview (Long-term perspective!)The long liquidation of nearly 1.2 billion yesterday has cut the OI on Bitmex by nearly half. The bullish structure is broken, but the price managed to stay above the 3k low. Is this the the moment of paradigm shift for Bitcoin? Will the Macro (Fed repo injection) have positive impact on BTC price? How BTC price closes this week will have the tremendous impact on whether the mining remains profitable for most miners and if companies need to sell their BTC in order to keep the operation running. Click the link below for more charts. imgur.com

Miner Capitulation Recovery? Buy signal on Hash Ribbons Miner Capitulation / Hash Ribbons has signaled a buy on daily suggesting that hash rate is stabilizing. Hash ribbons flipped a few days ago and today the SMA 10 crossed over the SMA 20 which is the secondary condition for a long. Looking at a long term scope, this strategy was supposed to beat even an early buy & hold. Mostly by reducing drawdowns significantly. So I made a quick backtest to see if the number actually held up and they do. $100 invested in MC versus a buy & hold. It significantly outperformed! Realize this is not a quick in and out strategy, as you can see average trade is held for a few months. It does accomplish the goal of reducing drawdowns though (but not eliminating them). Now all we need is a time machine to play this from 2011 onwards. :) Have a kick ass & prosperous 2020 everyone!

BTCUSD: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?The chart speaks for itself. The extrapoled price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%. Will we go back to $3,800? Unlikely, but clearly this is possible if the capitulation is as aggressive as 2018. Notably the VPVR is supporting the price target of $3,800, as is the extrapolation, with forecasted price for the block halving in May 2020 above $6K followed by another swift recovery and subsequent bull-run. This isn't the first theory regarding price forming a higher low double bottom instead of holding the $5-6K area. As published last year, the 50 & 200 Day death cross also resulted in a 50% drop in price in 2014 and 2018, implying a 50% probability of such an outcome (using 4 sets of available data).

Hash Rates Trump Difficulty in Identifying Miner Capitulation A visualization of Bitcoin Hash Rate vs Difficulty. This helps to show why Difficulty is a lagging indicator. Difficulty is like a moving average that only updates once every 2 weeks. Increased Difficulty is not necessarily good... Hash Rates are better for timing capitulation.

We Are Skirting on the Edges of a Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Bitcoin Hash Ribbons are extremely close to a potential Miner Capitulation. Should a Capitulation occur (crossover of the ribbons), it is not the time to be buying Bitcoin. The best times to buy Bitcoin is on Hash Rate recovery, as identified by this indicator. For now, we are "still in the green", and Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed. However, until we see continued Hash Rate growth, and separation of these Ribbons, we cannot be sure. This is one of the most important indicators to be watching right now regarding Bitcoin's health… as when miners hurt, the market will hurt too.

We are in a Miner Capitulation The Metric we have been tracking closely the last days has finally confirmed. The 1 and 2 month Hash Rates have crossed. We are in a Bitcoin Miner Capitulation. The only question now is, how deep will we go.