E-Mini Nasdaq 100 analysis based on Heiken-Ashi15m, 4hr, daily forecast based on Heiken-Ashi chart pattern, as I couldn't find any patterns on 1 hour chart, ones that found were already validated by this time. We'll come back to this to validate it.
MINI
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs .
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye.
Invalidation is above 6070.
outlook last week:
short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing.
2024-10-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bulls bought the lows as was expected but they could not close the day with a strong bull bar. Instead we printed weak bull bars or inside bars. Are we any smarter today? Not much. Both sides are to weak to show a clear direction and so we mostly move sideways. Bears do not have any arguments after not getting any follow through. Bulls at least closed it above the daily 20ema, so we are still inside the bullish patterns and upwards is more likely than down.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Also nested triangles, so not much difference to dax. Market closed in the middle of it, which is also the open of the week around 20400. Here market is absolutely in balance and it’s the worst place to trade. Market closed where it opened, so don’t put too much thought into today. Mark the triangles on your chart and wait for the breakout tomorrow or fade the extremes.
current market cycle: Bull trend (nested triangles on 1h chart)
key levels: 20000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls want 21000 again. They bought where they had to at the bull trend line and we should not drop below 20260 again or bulls might seriously doubt their case. Confirmation for bulls is only above 20700.
Invalidation is below 20000.
bear case: Bears need follow through selling below 20000 and I highly doubt they can get it. If they do, this bull trend is over and the highs are probably in. For now Bears trying to keep this inside the triangle and below 20700. Trading range price action so I will spare you more words.
Invalidation is above 20700.
short term: Neutral
medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. I do think we see 21000 before we see 19600.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying EU session as dax.
Mini/SOL - Raydium (Meme coin)TF: Daily
Price Action:
Liquidity already taken before making a BOS.
Break out and retesting of the structure.
S/R Flip.
Aligned with Golden pocket zone of the fib.
Buying Ranges:
0.04114 – 0.02882
*NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE – DYOR!*
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: 4 different upper bull trend lines for multiple wedges and all are kinda valid. You just never know which one will be most respected by the algo’s. 6000 is the target, much more likely we get there before a bigger correction. Don’t try to be the first bear on this.
Quote from last week:
comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this.
comment : Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5800 - 6000
bull case: Bulls know technically we are at the top of them all and the rally is on it’s last legs. Big round numbers are still just too good to not hit if history tells us anything. Bears are not doing anything and not enough bulls are taking profits, so the market only knows one direction. As long as we are staying above the two bull trend lines that are closest, bulls are good and we continue.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears are not doing enough. They have many reasonable targets below but what good are those if the 4h 20ema keeps getting bought almost the entire week? Can you sell new highs for a scalp? Sure. Bears need anything below 5800 to start having arguments. Reasonable scalp is probably a break below 5850 for 5800 but as of now, there isn’t much more to expect for Monday. I am open to surprises though. Overall I just doubt many bears want to short 5900 when they know everyone wants to see 60000 and there is much more value to short there.
Invalidation is above 6050.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5859 and now we are at 5906. Neutral wasn’t too bad since market made 60 points on the week. Wasn’t good either, I know.
short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted the many bull trend lines to show it’s pure guesswork which one will be respected. All are valid until clearly broken. Big dotted means that the pattern is on the weekly or monthly chart, and some breaks above are tolerable and do not mean the pattern is invalid. Close is always close enough.
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Also max bullish. Bulls closed 8 points below the ath. Strong buy signal going into next week but the issue (again) is that you are buying above the bigger bull wedge and at the very high of a nested one. Waiting for a pullback to go long is the much more reasonable trade instead of buying near 5860. The wedge has room to 5900, so 6000 is a valid year end target. Bear case begins below 5750. 5800-5850 is neutral.
Quote from last week:
comment: Much bigger range than the previous week with wild moves the whole week. Bears sold it with spikes, followed by bulls who bought every dip. End result was 5800 again and now what? We are near the ath and can easily make a new one. The high was also high enough to count as a decent lower high and we sell off from here. Given the strong bull bar on Friday, we have to give the higher odds to the bulls to get follow through above and we will probably make a new ath.
comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5750 - 5900
bull case: Bulls want 5900 and have all the arguments on their side. That still does not make buying 5859 a good buy. It’s possible that bulls break above both wedges and continue for 5900 and much higher, is it likely though? I doubt it.
What, no more text? We have two perfectly fitting patterns and are trading at the very highs. I have given precise invalidation prices. Don’t think more words will make this better. Just as more trades probably won’t make you more money. Quality over quantity.
Invalidation is below 5750.
bear case: Bears have nothing until they close below 5750. We are at the highs but so what? 5 Consecutive weekly bull bars say it all. Don’t look for shorts when bears do not make money other than scalping on time frames below 15m. When these two wedges break below, we will see a decent correction again and it’s possible over the next weeks but as of right now, bears are in pain and nothing else.
Invalidation is above 5910.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 5750 - 5850, big range but we are in the middle of that given range and both sides have reasonable arguments. If bulls get follow through above 5800, long scalps are a decent trade for 5830 or a bit higher. Right now I would not trade it.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5800 and now we are at 5859. Neutral range but I wrote above 5800 a long is good for 30 points or more. Good outlook.
short term : Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update : None
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670.
Quote from last week:
comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well.
comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5670 - 5850
bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800.
Invalidation is below 5670.
bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760.
Invalidation is above 5810.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110.
short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again.
sp500 e-mini futures
Here is the quote from my weekly update:
bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us.
comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again.
Invalidation is below 5490/5500.
bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400.
medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just let that sink in. Rough outlook for the next months from me is the following, bounce 19200ish for 19600 but staying inside the bear channel. Touch of the 2023-10 bull trend line around 19000 where we probably see a bigger bounce and more sideways movement. After that is pure bull slaughter down to 18000 and from there I will calculate new targets but the bull trend line from the 2020 and 2023 will most likely be hit in 2025.
current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market is in a deeper pullback which is a bear trend on a smaller tf but we will most likely transition into a trading range first before we enter the big trading range on the monthly chart again.
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls see the 3 pushes down inside a tight bear channel on the daily chart. The last pullback was good for 400 points and they want to rally from the 50% pb of the bull trend that started in April and which is most likely over. We are also trading right at the weekly 20ema. They are technically inside the bull channel which lead to the ath, so their bull premise is still valid. Odds favor the bulls for a pullback at 19200.
Pullback targets above are 19600-19700
Invalidation is below 18900.
bear case: Bears are back with a vengeance. Very tight bear channel down with huge bear bars closing on their lows. Bears are in full control of the market and their next target is to trade back below 19000 and hit the bull trend line from October. They just reached the 50% pb, weekly 20ema and the lower bear channel line. 3 good reasons to take profits by the bears and let the market have a pullback, so they can short higher again.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. I think we can hit 18800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. Odds favor the bulls for a bouce.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: Short since 20800. Update: closed the swing short at 19250. Hope you made some.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not too much to add after the dax analysis. 50% pb for sp500 is 5632, so market has some room higher. Daily 20ema is around 5600 and I do think the odds of the market turning down again to test the lows or make lower lows, is higher than going above 5630.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped and is now deflating. Enjoy the ride down.
key levels: 5540 - 5620
bull case: Bulls want at least the 50% pb and as long as they stay above the bull trend line 5575ish, their bull case is valid. One market broke above the 1h 20ema, it could not get a close below it and that’s strength by the bulls. They need follow through tomorrow and probably some force to get above 5632. That price is the 50% pb and also the breakout price, so two good reasons to go there again.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Bears need a proper channel for more downside, so they stepped aside enough today for bulls to get a bounce. Their target now is to stay below 5632 and not let the bulls gain too much hope again. No deeper analysis today, please see my weekly post.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Neutral until market found the lower high and trades back down. Should be around 5630. If the minor bull trend line is broken, bearish to 5500 and below 5500 is hell.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”.
trade of the day: Bulls made more money today. Buying anywhere near the minor bull trend line or at the 15m 20ema was good enough. Buying bar 45 or latest 47 was a very good trade.
2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - Quick one today because markets did the obvious thing and we learned nothing from this trading session.
Commodities - Gold is not worthy to be written about today. Oil was bullish as expected to 83.40 and 84/84 were my targets for many weeks now. Bulls can do some more here but it should not go much above 84. Best bears can hope for here is sideways.
Bitcoin broke strongly above the bear trend line but failed at the daily 20ema. Bears need to keep it below 64000 or we will see much higher prices again. Can short this once we trade back below 62400.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Market has the daily 50% pb almost exactly at Friday’s close. You do not need to analyse this deeper. Market is in balance and 5523ish is the fair/agreed price. Prominent tails above and below bars, tells you that it’s a trading range and you should buy low and sell high.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
Smaller tf = trading range
key levels: 5500 - 5550
bull case: Market is in balance. Bulls need break above 5550.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears need break below 5500 and preferably a daily close below.
Invalidation is above 5550.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. Best trades though were selling the expanding triangle bar 30-34 where market should clear resistance 5537 and that was also the us open price and we just sold off for 30 points. Next trade was the bar 41 entry bar after a very good signal bar 40. Buying near 5000 was almost a no brainer but since bar 37 was so big an climactic, I hesitated as well.
2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Expanding triangle on the 1h tf and that’s a form of a trading range. Big up, big down, big confusion, more sideways likely. 5530 is the most important price currently at about the middle of the range. Did the bears do enough damage today to expect follow through tomorrow? I don’t think so. They barely made another lower low. Selling down here is a bad trade.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 5500 - 5600
bull case: Bulls tried and failed at 5558 which qualifies as a decent lower high. Bulls need to stop the selling above 5500 or risk trading back down to the daily ema around 5460. They still see this as a minor pullback in the huge bull trend. Their problem is, that bears printed 3 consecutive bear bars now and broke the first bull trend line. It’s a bad buy here unless they get strong momentum going tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears doing good and trapping overly eager bulls in buying everything but the selling is not strong enough to question another retest of the highs. Until bears trade below the daily ema, they will be quick to exit shorts that lose momentum. Their next target is 5500 and then 5470, where we should hit the daily ema. If they also somehow manage to get below that level, the bull trend line will be tested next - around 5420ish.
Invalidation is above 5560.
short term: Neutral between 5500 - 5540, bullish above and bearish below
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Strong buying on bar 36 which was a decent buy since bears could not get below 5525. Triangle bar 37-47 and bar 48 was a good entry bar for shorts. Strong break below the triangle with follow through. Could have closed shorts on bar 56/57 because 4 consecutive bull bars but they had big tails above. If you held, could have been 100+ points.
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Day and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again.
comment: Market did exactly what I wrote in my last bear case sentence. Climactic bull bar on Monday with some follow through Tuesday and Wednesday to almost 5600 and then a pullback. Bulls touched the big upper bull trend line which began on 2023-02-02. Bears broke below the very tight bull channel but just so slightly and with tails below the daily bars. I expect the market to retest the highs again before another second leg down, which could then form into a decent pullback, like the one we had in April. Market sentiment is max bullishness from everyone everywhere and the posts about “this time it’s different” have become common. It’s the fomo phase where your Mother asks if she should buy some Nvidia stocks.
current market cycle: End of the bull trend is near. Will soon see a bigger pullback.
key levels: 5400 - 5600
bull case: Bulls will probably retest the highs or even make a higher high soon. First pullbacks / low 1, is a buy signal in a bull trend. After that retest, I - again, have nothing for the bulls. We are at the peak of this bubble imo and that’s where you get cautious and not even more bullish. Nvidia will touch 100 over the next weeks, if not days.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: The profit taking has begun imo. All bullish targets are met and we are trading at multiple upper resistance lines and prices. The daily ema is 80 points away and will get tested soon. Bears see the 3 pushes up from end of May and now want a decent pullback to the bull trend line around 5400, wich is also the breakout retest.
Invalidation is above 5620.
outlook last week:
No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5502 and now we are at 5534. New ath was 5587, so my outlook was good for 85 points. You. Are. Most. Welcome. Compare that to Newsletters who cost 130$ per month and include planetary constellations in their market analysis.
short term: Don’t get too bearish too soon. You never want to try to pick a top or a bottom. Let the big bois with endless money do that for you and follow along. Expecting another push for retest of the highs, followed by another leg down, as painted in my chart.
medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. I gave 5600 months ago and we are close enough to it or will touch it next week. Afterwards the money is made on the downside. 5300 over the next 1-2 weeks, followed by 5000 over the summer.
current swing trade: None but will enter new shorts next week.
Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.Update: slightly adjusted the bigger two legged correction and added a smaller one.
2024-06-20 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Interesting trading day to say the least. Globex rallied 27 points to 5587 where it stalled for couple of hours and then before US opened the floodgates were opened. Just strong selling throughout the day with huge bull spikes in between. Bears accomplished a drop of 23 points from open to close, that’s just weak but Globex high to daily low was 62 points. The 15m 20ema was decent today and bulls kept it above the important bull trend line and still far above the daily ema which is at 5450, so 100 points to go. Market has formed a triangle at the lows, which will probably just break out sideways in the Globex and EU session. Since tomorrow is Globex, I have no opinion on where we close the week tbh. Rough guess is at least a close below 5560 but I prefer a close below the bull trend line and below 5500 but that’s low probability.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 5500 - 5600
bull case: Bulls want to stay above 5540 which is my big orange support line. If they fail here, they will most likely also fail at the bull trend line and then 5480/5500 will come fast. Bulls bought every new low today and made money on lower time frames but they could not close above the 15m 20ema. That will be their first target for tomorrow and then above the 1h ema. I expect a pullback tomorrow and depending on how strong it is, another leg down or total melt up to 5600 into opex.
Invalidation is below 5520.
bear case: Bears had a decent day today. Naturally they want a second leg down, which would bring us to around 5460/5470, which would be my preferred close of this week. Since we are at bigger support, I don’t have much confidence in the bears. Need to see tomorrows price action in EU session.
Invalidation is above 5560.
short term: Neutral here between 5520 - 5560, bullish above and bearish below
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting every pullback near the 15m ema was decent.
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Day and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday.
comment: My take last week was, that as long as bears keep it below 5400, we could be in a trading range. Bulls used the pullback on Tuesday for a new ath and got a strong follow through on Wednesday to pulverize that previous ath and trade above 5500. That target price was my first measured move target from early 2024 and it could continue up to 5600. Market refused to print a bear bar on Thursday and Friday which leaves the market maximum bullish going into next week. The big issue with that long trade is, you are buying right under the ath in a buy climax, in multiple wedges, far far above any ema. This trade risk:reward equation is as bad as it gets but the probability is high. But what is your target? You can join momentum but all of my calculated targets end at around 5600. Buying pullbacks is the reasonable thing to do until it stops working. My final thoughts on the market this week is the following chart, which speaks for itself. This is peak bubble behavior and the next 1000-2000 Points will be made on the downside.
So given the current pattern of the s&p500 I do think we are in the last blow-off top of this bull cycle and will enter a trading range which will evolve into the new bear trend once we break below 5000. This market is made up of 7 stocks which get all the liquidity. My best guess on the path forward over the next months is in the weekly chart below.
We will probably spend more time between 5000 - 5600 to form a credible top. A head & shoulders top would be the most probable outcome.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory again. Will end over the next weeks.
key levels: 5400 - 5600
bull case: Bulls buying it all on the 7 stocks. Volume on this up move since May is absolute atrocious but that does not help anyone so far. It’s only going up and as long as bulls keep making money literally buying every dip, we continue up. I have 3 wave series leading up to 5500-5600 and all end there.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again.
Invalidation is above 5620.
outlook last week:
“Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 5355 and now we are at 5502. 5500 was my target if bulls trade above 5400 and I hope you made some of those 100 points. Good outlook it was.
short term: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability.
medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. 5600 could be hit but the next bigger points are made trading back down to 5300 and 5000 over the next weeks/months.
current swing trade: None
Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Two legs down from the open to then 3ish legs up to close right under the open price. Market is staying up here which is maximum bullish going into Friday. My target remains 5600 and there is absolutely no reason what so ever, that we can’t print another 100 points up tomorrow. Anything below 5470 would surprise me big time. Bears have no reason to sell this and bulls are making money buying every tick of a dip.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5470 - 5600
bull case: 5472 was a bit lower than expected but who cares, bulls buy it all. Just do the same. For tomorrow I will only look which ema is respected the most to go max long over the day.
Invalidation is below 5470.
bear case: If bears actually somehow manage to print a lower low below 5470, consider me surprised and I will rethink my plan but for now, bears are scalping as long as they have momentum, when it’s gone, they are out and bulls just print green bars.
Invalidation is above 5520.
short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Market just oscillated around 5500 the whole day. 5486 is big support and was a good buy yesterday and naturally so today if you chose a wider stop or waited for consecutive bull bars.
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks.
Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5300 - 5600
bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise.
Invalidation is below 5360.
bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter.
Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5330 - 5387
bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400.
Invalidation is below 5360.
bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working.
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5330 - 5385
bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5350.
bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday.
comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend.
key levels: 5300 - 5400
bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen.
Invalidation is above 5400.
outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ”
→ Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit.
short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.
medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged
current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts.
Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
202409 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well.
This week was another very strong one for the bulls. Having these kind of climaxes at the top after such a long ongoing trend is often the exhaustive end of it. But all that is just mumbling until bears show up. Bulls continue to pump this higher and that’s just what’s happening right now. All targets have been met and market keeps going because it keeps working. Bears need to generate more selling pressure and trap bulls who bought too high but right now they still can just every dip and make money.
sp500
Quote from last week:
Last week i drew a two legged (ABC) correction when we traded at 5042 and it was deeper and then higher than anticipated but other than that, a pretty perfect forecast so far. Meaning i still think we are in the second leg down and it will probably hit at least the daily 20ema at around 4970.
Low of the week was 4960. That’s is as perfect of a weekly outlook as it get’s. Was i absolutely flabbergasted by the 160 point gain after that? You bet. Can you say i was wrong in my outlook last week? I also wrote
short term: down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case
For dax my outlook was completely trash but sp500 i nailed it. Let’s view ahead.
bull case: Same for dax, hard to come up with higher targets. Most reasonable thing here would be to look for pullbacks and if they are bought, hop along. BTFD has not stopped working for a long time, even though they got a bit bigger, it was not enough so far. I draw something into the chart in case of measured moves but given so many trend lines we are at and the extreme of this move, i can’t see it but market has the ability to go way way beyond what’s reasonable (looking at you NVIDIA. couple more up days and that stock might be the first 10 trillion $ company and you be sure, you will find humans who will go in front of a camera and say why this stock is reasonably priced based on fundamentals, just like they did in 2000).
bear case: Bears need way more to stop the BTFD mania. The market is overbought and everyone knows it, that does not help in structuring good short trades, since this buying could continue. Bears need prices below 4931 to make lower lows, that is pretty far away. Best they can probably get is a trading range at the highs. Their first target is the daily 20ema around 5000 and i expect bulls to buy there again.
outlook last week: “down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case”
→ Last Sunday we traded 5014 and now we are at 5101. Market hit my target +10 points. That was +44 if you will.
short term: sideways is the best bears can hope for. bulls could also just moon this further. if you read this and think: “so this jack is saying it can go up or down?!” yes bro and now come’s the important distinction: i tell you i’m neutral here and wait for the market to show me further price action and evaluate with hopefully a higher certainty the next profitable trade. right now at 5101 is the absolute worst place to enter a trade. tl;dr: wait for more price action. i lean bearish but bears have done nothing late Friday so i wait.
medium-long term: same as dax. my thesis had 5100 as invalidation and now i wait for the monthly close first
a daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well.
Bears making lower lows but bulls buy them. That means prominent tails above and below bars and you have to be humble about your scalps. Markets don’t go from big bull to big bear trend and betting on breakouts after mind boggling rallies is low probability and a losing strategy.
nasdaq
Bears tried all day to get the market down and bulls just bought the last hour to reverse 12h of price action. After hour spike was big enough for many stops and we will probably range between 17400 and 17800 the next days.
Nvidia’s earnings were happening while i typed it. Interesting bar from 17409-17618. But also changes nothing. Market is looking for the next trend and we keep ranging until a strong one has formed. It’s up and down and down and up. Confusion is the hallmark of a trading range. I think anything above 17500 is an incredible short opportunity. This spike might just retest the bull channel breakout and will be faded hard. Don't be exit liquidity at these highs.
bull case: Bulls bought 17400 and had a very strong close above the 1h 20ema. They now want a higher high above 17620 to stop the bears from making lower lows. Since the selloff was around 700 points, i expect some bulls who scaled in lower, to exit their longs along the way and the best the bulls get is another lower high below 18000 and first they need to close above the daily 20ema too (around 17570).
bear case: Bears want a lower high below 18000 and preferably below the open of the week 17722 to keep late bulls trapped. The month is almost over and the close of this months bar with the new ath is very important, if bears manage to close it below the old ath 17716, it’s a sell signal. They want the tail above to be as big a possible. Anything below 17300 would give us a bloodbath March.
short term: sideways - probably inside a range 17400 - 17700 (ignoring the after hour spike for now and wait for globex open). open of the week was 17722 and spike high was 17683
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 18300.
trade of the day: just short since EU open - 15m 20ema was resistance until the last hour and you had to get out on bar 58
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well.
In my weekly outlook i talked about the major trend reversal for most indexes since the bull trend is coming to an end and we are in a trading range at the highs imo. Markets are in the process of forming a top and confirmation would be lower lows by the bears now. Today was a good start.
sp500
In my weekly outlook i said down then sideways, that was good for +45
bull case: Bulls bought the pullback to the bull trend line which started early 2023-12. Market has formed a triangle and bulls want to test the 1h 20ema, the bear trend line above and they need to close the bear gap to 5000, otherwise it’s a sell signal. They do stopped the bears today at 4970 and odds favor sideways here first.
bear case: Bears see the lower high double top with the ath. They got their pullback to 5000 and now they want to keep the gap above open to trap late bulls. If they succeed in keeping it open and making 4995 resistance, we could easily drop to 4900 this week and maybe even 4880ish. But let’s get the first bear target and then evaluate again.
short term: sideways - bulls could close the gap and trade more up to form a lower high below 5030 but i give the odds to sideways
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100
trade of the day: selling 4990 and buying 4975 - mostly trading range price action (or a broad bear channel, it does not matter because you trade them the same) where you either stay away completely or buy low and sell high and scalp
