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USDJPY = Win. Finally? I have shit winrate, but at least this trade is "logical", and has followed the trading plan lol. TRADING SPECS: BIAS = DOWNTREND NARRATIVE = 4HR BEARISH PD ARRAY(S/R FLIP+FVG) CONTEXT = RESPECTED PREMIUM ARRAY + A Wave ENTRY = SELL STOP ORDER @ A WAVE LOW (RUN ON LIQUIDITY). Nearly got SL'd. OPTIMAL ENTRY WOULD HAVE BEEN THE BEARISH FVG AFTER THE "4HR PREMIUM ARRAY REBALANCE" INSIDE CONTEXT AREA. THERE WAS A SHARP TURN IN THERE SOMEWHERE BUT I DIDN'T WAIT FOR THAT. RISK MANAGEMENT = N/A(?) JUST LET TRADE PLAY OUT. BUT SL WAS INSIDE THE ORDERFLOW LEG(?) Here's how it went: 1. Assessed Day Bias - price was downtrending. checked orderflow and candle science for this shit 2. Assessed Current Price "Intention" - price only does two things: seek liquidity, and rebalance fair value. When I plotted my Key Levels, price was at a point where it was just done seeking liquidity(support + poc was swept) and it was reversing. I see an S/R Flip + FVG area. If price goes here, that means price has rebalanced fair value.. so, logic dictates that it will reverse again to SEEK LIQUIDITY. When I came back to this chart again, price has already rebalanced fair value, has respected the S/R Flip + FVG, and has started reversing down. 3. Picked Out a Target - I picked out something realistic. Here is where indicators/tools come in. Instead of using my confluence mix(POC+FVG+OTE pd array) as entry points, "I just used it as a target since... price has already rebalanced fair value at the higher TF, and it's already going down, so it's probably going to seek liquidity on the other side. It's most probable target before price may or may not do something else is the FVG+POC+OTE AREA." My choice of liquidity category was the Previous Day Session nPOC. Along with the FVG and OTE, it was a strong "magnet", especially considering that price has finished seeking buy side liquidity and therefore the price's next target are the liquidities below. Wow, this makes so much sense to me now. Price always intend to bounce from opposite liquidities, from higher timeframe to lower timeframe... so... 4. Waited for PA that will Deliver Towards Target - I think my entry here was sloppy, the weakest part of this trade. But it made sense, and it still worked anyway. I just found a sting candle down(the A wave) after tapping the (S/R Flip+FVG).. I set a sell stop limit on the exact low of that candle. LOGIC was, if price pushed down below that sting, especially with a strong fvg, it would validate the RESPECT of the (SR FLIP+FVG), and it would continue going down(an invalidation of a long continuation idea)... probably to, again, seek liquidity below. Reason why I think my entry was sloppy, is because I did not validate the trade idea first. I didn't wait for that sting candle to get "run on(liquidity)" first. I think in order to validate it, I would have waited for the sting to become a run on liquidity area first, and then a second bearish fvg candle close to confirm downtrend. It would have been too late and the profit would have been too small at that point. 5. Put SL at the Orderflow Leg Swing High - If price was really not intending to continue going up, it wouldn't have gone here, which it didn't. I nearly got stopped out, like the other trades I had on sunday and monday. ------------- Here's the pattern that I keep seeing though, when price makes a valid HIGH(like in this case, the SRFLIP+FVG rebalance), price will attempt to go here atleast twice with a WICK, but will still make lower highs. Usually, those second and third wicks will form as if it's going to take the liquidities at those wicks, but it will just take out the CANDLE BODY HIGHS... So take note of these next time. When price sweeps a higher timeframe FVG/LIQUIDITY, mark out the candle body closes as TARGET LIQUIDITIES, not the wicks. If a downtrend is valid, it will only take out the body close liquidities. I will make a diagram to help make this make sense lmfao. ------------- I feel like a mad scientist at this point... endlessly trying to see the actual logic in the market. Not the probabilities of patterns playing out, but the CAUSES and EFFECTS. I think I'm close to finding the pattern within the pattern... or the message hidden in the patterns(Arcane reference, anyone?). But I think the two things I have found thanks to Arjo is... "Price only does two things: 1. Seeking Liquidity 2. Rebalancing Fair Value and Higher TF = Rebalancing Fair Value <-> Lower TF = Seeking Liquidity" and "The Higher the Timeframe, The Stronger the Timeframe" Like... the market isn't random. I think these two things are the core principles of trading. Because with these two ideas, you don't need a strategy. You need to UNDERSTAND this. And the strategy can be adapted to whatever you see on the chart. You open EURUSD, and you see that price is on a downtrend, and it has recently rebalanced the bearish fair value gap on the 4HR? You know what price will do next. It will continue going down to seek liquidity below. So, with that information, what will you look for? How will you enter? Where will you set your entry point, your stoploss, and where is your target? You open USDCAD, and you see that price is on an uptrend, it has already rebalanced fair value below, has made a bullish choch+FVG, and has respected that choch+FVG on a lower timeframe. You know it will seek buy side liquidity next. So how will you enter? Where will you place your stoploss? Where's your exit? ------- Now, if only I can translate this knowledge into actual consistency in trading, I can finally make money. But I guess doing the journal is great. I'm consistently at the 25-30% winrate. So with this understanding.. Maybe I can slowly push that winrate up over time. I think mechanically, the trade entries i had a year ago and now was the same(choch+POC+FVG+OTE), but now I have the understanding of why it may work or why it won't work, and when do I apply it so I increase the odds of winning. So that's something. Before, I didn't know why it did or did not work. But now, I know. I can use this info moving forward to increase my odds. ------- OH WAIT YEAH, IF I KNOW WHAT THE MARKET DOES AND WHY IT DOES WHAT IT DOES, THEN I WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE MY ENTRIES, BECAUSE NOW I KNOW WHY AND HOW I'M MAKING MY MISTAKES. HELL YEAH. ------- I'm just not sure about whether I can stick to one entry strategy now, or if I should, or I won't trade something that looks doable under my principles... because I've studied everything, and it makes sense now. lmfao. ------- if people are reading this(up to this point lol that was a long ash read), then thank you. Reply with your thoughts if ever. Alright thanks bye
Short
by reventioaxie
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Long
by reventioaxie
TRADE ASSESSMENT: March 23 EuroUSD - LOSSwhen price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalance. that's your narrative. then look for context and entry. (POC+OTE+FVG) when price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalancewhen price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalancewhen price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalancewhen price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalancewhen price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalancewhen price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalancewhen price has made a sweep and is making higher highs on the 15min, look for 1hr FVGs to rebalance
Short
by reventioaxie
BTC SHORT = Higher TF Analysis to Lower TF S/R Flip (FVA+FVG)BTC SHORT = Higher TF Analysis to Lower TF S/R Flip (FVA+FVG)BTC SHORT = Higher TF Analysis to Lower TF S/R Flip (FVA+FVG)BTC SHORT = Higher TF Analysis to Lower TF S/R Flip (FVA+FVG)BTC SHORT = Higher TF Analysis to Lower TF S/R Flip (FVA+FVG) So i did higher tf analysis, checked which swing point was swept and checked current candles if it "RESPECTED" the sweep, looked for FVGs in the 4hr and lower TFs and looked for targets. in the 15min, I checked current leg and decided it followed higher tf bias(short) and looked for fva+fvg entry... which it was currently present. let's see how it goes.
Short
by reventioaxie
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Long
by reventioaxie
Oil Collapse | WTICOUSD About to Give it Up!I called the oil top in June 2022 and I have been building / holding a massive leveraged short position ever since then. This market will take YEARS to recover, after the current selloff is complete. I will continue to cover the devastation, along the way. Don't listen to the media - they are lost. Question your "advisors" - they are going to encourage you to "stay invested", it's what they do. Ultimately, the decision to ride out this market will cost you dearly. If you are able, GET OUT OF THE MARKETS. There is nowhere to hide!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by ChiefMacro
2
The end of MMTThis is quite symbolic graph comparing NASDAQ Composite Index to the interest rates since the end of gold standard in USA in 1971 and beginning of the Modern Monetary Theory where FED economists thought country can't bankrupt because always more money can be printed. Each time since 1971 when there was a crisis and stock market going down the best solution was QE (quantitative easing) to flood economy with more printed money, each time however decreasing the living standards for people because of inflation . And here we are now when the rates are nearly zero and we are facing next big crisis, but first time since 1970's according to MMT the central bank can't lower interest rates because we are already at the bottom, there is no speace for easing. How this will end? Nothing good is waiting for us in the nearest future in my opinion. There is high inflation and to stop it the interest rates would have to be much higher, even double digits in the US and Europe but central banks won't like to do this because the countries have huge debts and high interest rates means they could just go bankrupt (which would be the best option - let it bankrupt and clear this economy). I think hitting the ground will be very hard.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by UnknownUnicorn29290293
Modern Monetary Theory vs Crypto (ft. Inflation, Ronald Reagan)Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is not a "magic money tree" like a lot of (privledged) people say it is. The money for it comes from: - Leveraging the US Dollar's credit rating in exchange for short-term loans - Collateral from debt and related interest rates - Increasing the gap between inflationary assets (whom lean in favor of the wealthy) and labor wages, which often goes unnoticed One thing to note is that instead of raising taxes (which nobody wants to do) the government has been inflating the valuations of assets like real-estate in order to compensate for loss of taxable revenue. The reason why the Federal Reserve isn't likely to increase interest rates, even if they could. Crypto is disruptive to the finance industry because it gives the power of asset ownership to the wider public, which ends up in competition with traditional asset classes like real-estate and stocks. And crypto is winning so far, which is the reason why you hear a lot of cries of "foul play" from the other side. 😭 Traditional finance falls apart when people default on their loan (literally unable to pay it back due to hopelessness), which we briefly saw in 2008, which they covered up with band-aid policies that could come off at any moment. I'm trying to figure out the timing of this right now but it hasn't been easy. But we do know it's coming soon, because COVID has accelerated the trends towards this stuff even more as the government continues to have no plan for how or when this train is going to end. It's only a matter of time. Either way, hold on to your butts, folks. Link to NFT: opensea.io
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by RyanTanaka
SP500: Sell Rallies - Pre-empt PullbackMy strategy for the SP500 index is as follows: - Exit Long positions on rallies and hold a core long position for the long term ( "time in the market") - Wait for a deep pullback to start adding back Longs (SP500 is growth function) - Happy to scalp short term, but I like a to 'load the wagon" long if we had a decent 600-1000 point correction! - Trade in smalls and build a position (limit grids - no 'binary' trading) Fiscal stimulus is still strong. Downside issues is the ridiculous USA debt ceiling, which is meaningless in a fiat currency system, but which is exploited for political reasons. Infrastructures deal is great for the market - but that seems subject to risks also. The ideal situation would be to have a 'deep' correction, and then have a decent infrastructure deal be agreed to and passed in the house. NB. Infrastructure deal is passed and debt ceiling is avoided - ignore the above (but it is very unlikely that we will not have volatility and further downside runs in the market as we approach end of September and go into October).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Adam-Cox
Powell's taper comments coming-up: Potential scalp opportunitiesI have set-out my logic in prior posts of how I am exiting the SP500 market from prior longs bought more than 18 months ago - by selling into rallies. If an infrastructure deal goes ahead and debt ceiling issues are dealt to successfully, I will reconsider my current stance. However, I am happy to scalp particularly from needless / senseless market over-reactions for short term scalp trading opportunities. We may see an opportunity coming up with Powell and the Jackson Hole meeting coming up. My rationale set-out below: - tapering is simply a reduction in the Fed's open market operations (OMO) whereby treasuries are purchased from dealers (secondary market) with the result being that cash from trader's is deposited into the Banking system. This cash is also known as reserves ( Refer blue Histogram ) - The effect of this QE style OMO is to strip credit interest out of the non-government sector that would have otherwise been paid to holders of treasuries as one form of money (treasurites) is replaced with another form (Bank cash / reserves). - the banking system is 'pull system' , not a 'push system'. Banks need capital to make loans; not deposits as the Fed, like all Reserve Banks, they act as lender of last resort. Stuffing the banking system full of cash does not benefit Banks, rather it makes regulatory capital management harder for Banks and produces scarcity of interest bearing securities, with downward pressure on rates. - to offset some of this effect, reverse repos have been employed by the Fed as a 'temporary' measure - but is its like a senseless merry-go-round. Why am I saying all of this? - where you have record high fiscal growth supporting a market (risks looming in the background - debt ceiling), and potentially needless market panic regarding the word 'taper', which is actually positive not negative for the market, then that's a great short term buy opportunity to scalp back to the mean. What level will I buy at: I would like to buy around the cost basis of swing traders which is marked on the chart and which represents around 20% market capitalization. I will be checking out my Market Risk indicator which looks at a range of factors including futures spreads for a potential long scalp trade. Instead, call writing maybe your go-to strategy here instead but there's not much Vol to sell (yet!) #MMT
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
SP500: Grind and FizzlesWhilst one of my trading systems (as displayed) doesn't yet display Exit-Long signals, I have been pre-empting some expected volatility which I perceive can arise due to what can be an lengthy infrastructure Bill process along with the Debt Ceiling fiasco. I detailed this in an earlier post. Up to this point I have been happy to ignore exit signals based on perceptions of market risk and fiscal support - noting the SP500 index in this model, is assumed to represent a US GDP growth function along with an 'off-risk' overlay. Where I have low market risk, clear fiscal support (infrastructure bill is committed to), Covid-19 strains (delta strain) understood and the ridiculous debt ceiling overcome, I will assess if it is appropriate to be Long or Longer the broad US market. I expect the market to pull-back, and will assess being long on limits at lower prices. #adam-cox
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
How Central Banks Are Stealing Your MoneySince the merger between the Fed and the Treasury (kidding, kind of), I've had so many conversations with individuals outside of the financial industry who struggle to fully grasp how central banks are stealing their money. Today, I'm going to share a short and simple post which I hope will help explain the direct effect of "money printing," on the working class. Let's jump right into it. When interest rates remain low for an extended period of time (historically), risk assets become more prone to rampant speculation (lucky for those holding assets outside of cash), leading to massive distortions in the underlying fundamentals of those assets, and historical valuation deviations from the mean (which is mathematically unsustainable). The rapidily rising prices of both assets, and goods & services, which is not being stimulated by an actual increase in the velocity of money, but rather from central banks artificially flooding the monetary system with liquidity (while interest rates are near zero), contributes to a lower standard of living for those holding cash as their primary asset. For example: If you have $100 in your bank account, and perhaps this is your only asset, then the central bank increases the money supply by 25%, what they've just done is increase the denominator which underpins the value of that $100. Here's a simple logical demonstration: 100/100 = 1 (baseline purchasing power.) 100/125 = 0.80 (a 25% increase in the money supply in this example, as a result of central bank money printing, results in a 20% loss in purchasing power.) In essence, in this hypothetical situation, you've just lost 20% of your purchasing power. With CPI in the US running at 5.4% YoY vs the Fed's 2% "target," we're currently looking at an inflation rate almost triple the Fed's goal. The US10Y yield trades at 1.25% while CPI is 5.4%, and the Fed continues to print $1.44 Trillion on an annualized basis, with no end in sight. Welcome to the wonderfully horrific world of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Anyone looking for a hedge?
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
13
USD at 78-84 cents by August 2021 ?!Bear trap at 93 cents is almost confirmed and if we head down, look back longer period charts to get guidance on there the key long term support is. I would not short the USD but it's hard to imagine the world is going to flock to the overvalued USD since endless debasement is not endless. Yes, it's endless as the ravine is endless.... The only thing that's holding on the USD at about 90 cents is it's the safer of the FIAT currencies. Or it is? Comment, like, dislike. Everything is good in using the truth as guidance.
INDEX:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn2413721