Moneyvelocity — Trading Ideas on TradingView

NASDAQ a look ahead...As the NASDAQ and other major U.S. Equity Indexes face the pressure of economic uncertainty, the price action between days show that investors are not quite convinced this bull run has seen its finish line. However, we shouldn't only be looking toward private investor sentiment, but also that of the Federal Reserve's presence in the market and how the bond market reflects the Fed's position moving forward. As shown here, the all time high for the TVC:NDQ is $22,133.22. Our position is that the NASDAQ must reclaim, retest, and continue beyond the all time high in order for us to continue our confirmation on the bull run. The path described should look as shown below... In this instance, we can assume the bull run should continue. However, we should also be prepared for an alternate scenario where investors leave risk assets behind to chase non-risk assets (bonds for example). This scenario would look as shown below. All though these are not the only two possible scenarios, we can most likely expect the future to play out in a similar fashion as the examples. As for the market metrics to keep an eye on, look to TVC:US10Y for any bond yield manipulation, FRED:RRPONTSYD for market liquidity metrics, and FRED:M1V for M1 money velocity. Furthermore, keep an eye on tariffs for consumer tech ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:NVDA , NYSE:TSM ) and military activity ( NYSE:LMT , NYSE:RTX , NYSE:NOC ). Lastly, keep an eye on the banking and financial sector for more than likely banking deregulations withing the coming years.

M2 Velocity M2 consists of small-denomination time deposits >$100K - less IRA and Keogh balances at Institutions. Balances in retail MMFs - less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. M2: Savings Deposits, Small-Denomination Time Deposits, Retail Money Market Funds, + M1. ____________________________________ In Sum, Consumer Economic activity and Balances. ____________________________________ The Velocity of money is calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which is used to measure Economic strength and/or Consumers' willingness and/or ABILITY to spend money or Consume. ____________________________________ The Federal Reserve is well behind the Inflation Curve. Initially, 2024 was the year for Fed Funds rate increases. It has since moved from 2024 to 2023 and now there is a 73% Probability of the Federal Reserve increasing Fed Funds twice in 2022. 8 Months of tapering at the indicated removal of $15Billion is not going to occur. The Federal Reserve will not be able to delay, they will increase the reduction to Bond/MBS Purchases in order to begin a Rate Cycle sooner than Equity Complex Participants have assumed. Thye have not recognized the underlying ISSUES, should Money Velocity begin to increase... they will be forced to reduce QE faster and further than the majority are anticipating. 4 Fed Members prefer to conclude the Taper at the end of March 2022. ____________________________________ Peak Earnings are now behind us, Q2 2021 was the Zenith of this Credit Cycle.

M1 - Velocity continues deteriorating As BR & VG maintain a healthy prop under the Equities Complex.... Real activity outside of the "Markets" is grinding to a decided halt. Uncertainty has gained a foothold and it is not going to reverse in the near future. The spectacle in chasing Price, big greens bars... is merely a trade. It is not an investment, those days are long gone as the Fundamentals of our Economy have collapsed. The prop can buy time, but that is limited as well as Risk Factors only continue to compound. They are everywhere and well ignored by speculators and gamblers alike. Behaviors are symptomatic of far greater ills within our Culture, which had devolved to into a myriad of untoward circumstances. Patterns repeat. We are witnessing the transfer of wealth on a scale unseen in Human History. It is truly disturbing. The panic Sell can only be prolonged for a finite time. When Price cuts loose to the downside, most will Hold as the indoctrination of FED Policy and BTD is what plays. Until it does not.

M2 - Velocity and Explanation of DIVERGENT TRENDS Explained V.1 The explanation will be broken into several parts below: You see what I see. M1/M2 Velocity collapsing while Fiscal Policies become far more extreme in nature. Profile and Structure are comprised of a great many observable metrics. Volumes are wafer thin. Gamma squeezes are, on balance, failing. Calls are what has driven volume, Stops at levels are being used as well. The same Large Caps drive Price from a narrow and concentrated group of 7-9 equities. AAPL is an excellent example - the Cult of iMob is not driving price with outright purchase, but Calls. We see this weekly, APPL's range is 141 to 150. It is approaching the Resistance @ 150. Concentration Metrics show clear RISKs to any type of event - Profiles are out of balance. QQQ's continue to hold 363, for now. Support and Resistance have morphed into a weakening structure within the overall Market Profile. ____________________________________________________________________________________ ATHs are meaningless to a functional trader. Structure and Profile has far more to it than Higher Highs. The Divergences have never, in the history of the Equities Markets, been this extreme. Never. We can see Longer term indicators beyond the DOW Transports which clearly align within the numerous indicators demonstrating the widest negative divergences ever. These have been Divergence warnings during 2007, 2011, 2015, 2020 and now - 2021. The Magnitude of each has been interesting: The Scope and Scale of each Daily Divergence is highly correlated to the percentage retracement with only 1 exception. 2007 - 56% decline - Scope / 86 weeks of DIV - Scale 2011 - 16% decline - Scope / 16 weeks of DIV - Scale 2015 - 12% decline - Scope / 60 weeks of DIV - Scale 2020 - 32% decline - Scope / 47 weeks of DIV - Scale 2021/2022 - TBD and yet it has exceeded the 90 year cycle Highs In March of 2022 we will have completed the 90 year Cycle. Will it be the onset of a wider and more pronounced and obvious Global Economic Contraction? Or is it front run? I believe it will be front run in dramatic and very violent fashion. It will depend on Confidence, which is waning dramatically, we are seeing this in M1 - a dramatic decline in Consumer purchases. Factories around the Globe are being shuttered. It follows the pattern Samsung exhibited in 2019... almost perfectly. Review the 2019 10Ks and 10Qs.

M1 - Oops, Collapse - LARGE SELL is days to a week away.Although WARNINGS abound - the emotional's wed to their beliefs in Potential Short Squeeze(s)... the FED, Their charts, The sympatico Herd, Confirmation Bias. "Hoping" for Hope. Ignoring the Signs. It ends badly. Catalyst? Could be anything, FOMC, CHINA, DX/BONDS. The footprints are observable. M2 never declines, it is the Velocity which matters. It's heading to 0 and below. We are in a Large SELL - ES YM RTY NQ TQQQ TSLA ARKK We are in a staggered Inverse BID - VXX SEPVIX SOXS SQQQ We are holding for a 200sma Correction

MZM Money Supply and Velocity MZM money supply is M2 Money supply less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Recall that M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler’s checks & Recall that M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. MZM Money supply is at ATH which generally makes sense. As time goes on more printing will occur. The 'scary' thing about this chart is that MZMV, the velocity of this very broad money supply, is now <1. That means every dollar is used in transaction <1 time per unit time... an all time low!

Money Velocity is in Complete FreeFall M2V most recent data is from December 2019. It is likely near zero at the present moment. Some voices are saying that the Fed liquidity and balance sheet expansion is inflationary, but the charts tell a different story. The velocity of M2 is in complete freefall. We have reached the point where interest suppression is no longer an effective tool for monetary policy. It doesn't matter how low rates go or how much the Fed is willing to lend, people don't want to spend or borrow, and insolvent businesses are going to self-liquidate. People are hoarding cash, and rightfully so. You can't print your way out of a global demand shock and supply shock. If you study M2V closely, it tells a story. What you'll see is that the Fed has been in a liquidity trap for the last 20 years. To avoid a big deflation they've pushed rates lower and lower to stimulate growth now and push the problems down the road, but now we're at the end of the road and facing a bigger deflation than we could have ever imagined. There's no more growth to stimulate.