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7.28.17 | BANK | Falling Wedge back to ResistanceBANK index: There is an enormous Adam and Eve double top forming inside the sideways channel. This may suggest that price is going to fall back to support. However there has been a lot of bearish divergence over the past two weeks and a corrective move bullish may push price into a breakout out of the sideways channel diverging from the bearish double top. As it stands right now price is in a very tight falling wedge at a major support zone which also is at the neckline for the double top. At the very least I expect price to breakout of the falling wedge to form the pull-back for the double top and anything more from this will be a corrective rally back to resistance and possibly through it. One thing to watch out for is capital moving out of the financial sector as APPL reports their earnings next week. There is a little bearish press in the market for Bank stocks right now but this may only reinforce the resistance of the channel it may not cause price to collapse completely. Again my expectations are a bullish pull-back to a rally back to resistance starting on Monday. Any bearish divergent price action and I will revisit the Adam and Eve Double top.
7.30.17 | AAL | Falling Wedge Break OutAAL looks like it has slightly diverged from its bullish breakout of a falling wedge. None the less Friday did close with a large bullish candle after a huge gap down divergent to the falling wedge pattern. Price has been trading with the support of accelerating fan lines and may have an overall target back to the lower support line. However oil this week looks like it is going to retrace out of a Rising Wedge which is going to be bullish for the Airlines. Also signaling a bullish retracement is the Stochastic Oscillator which has crossed over and trending out of Oversold as well as the Sentiment Zone Oscillator which has also bounced from Oversold and trending to break resistance of the 0 line. Confirmation of a breakout will be a bullish close on Monday, and increasing volume which is already on the rise as seen with the dashed trendline. The first target is drawn on the 31.8% line at about $31.50 | Place your stop just outside daily volatility or use the 8 EMA and place it just outside of that.
7.30.17 | DAL | Falling Wedge BreakoutDAL just like AAL looks like it is ready to breakout out bullish from a falling wedge. Price is oversold on Stochastic's and the Sentiment Zone with the RVGI crossing over bullish. The first target is on the 31.8% line at about $51.97 which should be hit by Thursday or Friday. Use your 8 EMA or daily volatility to place your stop.
7.30.17 | BAC | Falling Wedge Breakout BAC is running into a major support line as well as nearing the support of the Upward Channel Price has been trading in for the past few months. The Falling Wedge is tightened up and will not fit another day of volatility in it. Stochastic's is in a long term up trend, the Stochastic's RSI is trending out of oversold and the Sentiment Zone Oscillator is going to makes it's bounce off oversold. I am speculating a minor trend bullish breakout at the beginning of the week and a possible rally to the resistance zone at the top of the range for a corrective move based on the bullish divergence the Bank Stocks have had for the past two weeks. There is some bearish press in the News right now but with Warren Buffet recently becoming the largest shareholder of BAC I do not see a bearish outcome for this particular Stock.
8.2.17 | BAC | Target 1 at around $24.90BAC | Going into the market for 8.2.17 price has already traded to Gap up above a major resistance line and currently is at $24.49 at the close on 8.1.17, indicating a rally. Price has broken the confluence between the Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension tool, indicating a further rally. It has also broken the 61.8% line on the Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating that price is going to continue to trade higher. I have a Target set at about $24.90 at the top of the Fibonacci Retracement (100% Line) use daily volatility to set your stop or if price starts to trade too far below the trendline, which has been drawn directing the bullish move.
8.6.17 | INTC | Short Trade breaking out of a Rising WedgeINTC | Price has formed a rising wedge and has already began breaking out. Sellers have had control of the market for the past two trading sessions closing each day bearish, which is the indication the bearish breakout of the rising wedge has started. A large inverted Head+Shoulders pattern (grey) is forming as an underlying pattern to the breakout on the falling wedge. The first target of the selloff is the .382% line and the second target is the .5% line. It is doubtful that price will close below the .5% line, however if it does there is a major support line that price will pivot on and reverse to complete the form of the right shoulder on the inverted Head+Shoulders pattern. It is highly recommended to tighten your stop at the second target. The MACD has started to indicate a pull back to its signal line, Stochastics RSI is starting to tick out of Overbought, and the Awesome Accelerator has already started selling back to the zero line. Enter on mondays open, and if you're using stop's set it using daily volatility and the 8EMA.
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Parabola back in play - more to come nowBITCOIN: BTCUSD Fantastic price action has pushed Bitcoin through the old high like a knife through hot butter. There's more to come now...
UKOIL: Brent Crude next target hit but more to comeUKOIL: Brent Crude - Brent has moved to within 1 pip of the next upside target at 54.60 and is consolidating recent gains. So long as it holds up off the lower parallel the uptrend remains strong and there should be more to come in near term up to 55.15 and potentially higher still as per comment. So stay with it but be ready to short from higher up tomorrow if we see the right spot to hit it from
FDN: Final stage of medium term internet ascent this week...FDN: First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund - in 4th and likely final phase of the rally which began in early 2016. It can go on another 2% from here but then should hit problems. Use this index fund as confirmation next week - looking across the FAANGS for signs of completion. This looks like the final vertical ascent. Don't get sucked in now. Rather, get ready to bail if a swing trader.
S and P 500: More range trading in storeS and P 500: Some seasonal facts to help you decide on likely S and P direction from here over the Summer:
S and P 500 Highs and Lows since 2011
HIGH LOW
28.4.11 5.8.11 and 28.9.11
27.4.12 31.5.12 and 9.11.12
21.5.13 20.6.13 and 27.8.13 and 9.10.13
no May peak 6.8.14 and 15.10.14
18.5 15 20.8.15 and 28.9.15
19.4.16 19.1.16 and 10.2.16 and 27.6.16 (Brexit) and 8.11.16 (Trump)
HIGH Pattern: A significant high is made in a small window of 32 days between 19th April and 21st May in 5 of the last 6 years.
LOW Pattern: In EVERY year a low is made in a 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November.
3 lows in August = 50% of all years, 2 lows in June (but one was Brexit)
28th September = 2 lows (2011 and 2015)
9.10.13 and 15.10 14 - 5 days apart
9.11.12 and 8.11.16 - 2 days apart
So it's fairly clear that one should be looking to enter this trade from the long side in the 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November and to exit the trade in the 32 day window between 19th April and 21st May each year, in preparation for the Vix long trade the following month (see Vix comment)
For the purposes of this exercise we obviously have to choose an optimal date and so it's quite likely that you can analyse and finesse this part of the equation better than I can, but here I'm choosing the last trading day of April to exit and the 16th October as entry date. Once again I believe that the timing of entry (more so than exit) can be improved significantly using Techical indicators, again up for further discussion.
But sticking to the same entry end exit dates for the purposes of this exercise and for simplicity yields the following results over 7 years to date:
Being invested in the S and P from start of analysis from first buy on 216th October 2010 through to 30th April 2017 would have netted 1210 points in profit.
Being invested for 6.5 months from Mid October to end April the next year has yielded a return of 1289 points, so only 79 points more or just 11 points per year difference - but over 6 to 7 months, not 12 months each year. So the point is: NOTHING is lost by being out of the S and P 500 during the Summer months, as clearly shown for the last 7 years now.
This year there is at least a new paradigm: like it or not his name is Donald Trump. Maybe he can save the S and P from summer doldrums - but he's going to have deliver a new trick pretty soon if the S and P isn't going to get bored with the UnTruman Show over the summer and gradually sell off, culminating in a mini sell off, with a 50-50 chance that this will occur in August.
GBPUSD showing POTENTIAL SELLGBPUSD = SELL
Entry = at 1.2288
Final SAVE Exit = 1.2173
Report : GBPUSD is still heading DOWNWARDS with prefer entry at 1.2288
NB....for more about this, and please, always wait for entry
you can PM me
GBPUSD:Rapid rise in the short term, has been under pressureHi,traders,I hold a point:Good charts does not more words to explain!
Good luck
EURGBP LONG ENTRY LEVELS More chances for a bullish continuation, what is confirmed by a recent multi time frame price action research, and important level zones
NEXT WEBINAR (LONDON TIME): 15/07/16 19:00 www.youtube.com
Reviewing the most recent PA 1&2 period patterns we have:
1D Bearish Pattern
1M Bullish Pattern
Knowing the patterns of a higher time frame is very important. Sometimes they can conflict one to another, but it gives us the information of the possible correctional moves, or a start of a new direction, so basically, every time when conflict exists, you must examine a chart whether it is a correctional pattern appearence or a new direction, shall you close the existing trade or open the new one, does it give you a new oportunity or shall you wait, and also rememver, that when the monthly pattern appeared, it means that it is valid till the current month is closed, as by the price action rules, the pattern is clear only at the close of the candle or a bar.
We also have to review the range of the closed period comparing to the previous set of periods, hours, weeks, months, etc... Here, I'm showing you a range compared to 6 and 3 previous periods, NR means Narrow range, WR means wide range, the number displays a total periods reviewed, if the NR is displayed, high possibility of the range expansion, in WR case it can be opposite. at the moment here's the situation:
1H WR4
1H WR7
4H WR4
4H WR7
1D WR4
1D WR7
1M WR4
1M WR7
Session (current session only) levels:
r3 0.84876
r2 0.84528
r1 0.84179
p 0.83501
s1 0.83152
s2 0.82474
s3 0.82125
I really hope that sharing of my routine with you, will help you in your trading.
Also I really hope that in respect to my hard work, you will take time to use the data I share, you will put the levels on a chart, and will apply it to your trading.
Sincerely
Arturs Jermolickis
[email protected]
skype: marenno.business
A short - government required disclaimer:
I’m not providing any advice, and I do not guarantee any profit. What you see here is only a share of my view of the market.
GBPCAD Buy and Sell Set upHigh risk to buy now because it can do one more lower or you just can wait to seeel at the top of the Channel
