Moderna Faces Another Quarterly Loss, Yet Shares Show ResilienceModerna Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MRNA ) has once again reported a quarterly loss, reflecting the continued decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales and an unexpected charge related to a canceled manufacturing contract. Despite this, shares of the biotech giant saw a 3.35% uptick, signaling a mixed sentiment among investors.
Weighing the Challenges and Opportunities
On Friday, Moderna disclosed a Q4 2024 revenue of $966 million, marking a sharp 65% year-over-year decline. The loss per share stood at $2.91, exceeding the analyst projection of $2.73 per share. More concerning for investors was the company’s forecast for 2025 sales, estimated between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion—significantly below the $3.26 billion consensus estimate.
CEO Stéphane Bancel reaffirmed Moderna’s focus on cutting costs and streamlining its research and development (R&D) efforts. The company plans to reduce R&D expenses by up to $1.1 billion by 2027, primarily by halting early-stage projects and prioritizing late-stage drug approvals. Moderna has already trimmed $1 billion in costs, positioning itself for leaner operations in the coming years.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:MRNA shares closed Friday’s session down 0.38%, showing hesitation despite the broader market’s strength. The stock is currently hovering near a critical support zone—the one-month low. Should this level fail to hold, a further decline towards the $25 region could be the next stop.
On the upside, a breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level could alter the trajectory for Moderna’s stock, potentially signaling a bullish reversal. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.46, the stock remains in weak momentum territory, suggesting that bullish conviction is still lacking.
Outlook: Can Moderna Reignite Investor Confidence?
Moderna’s near-term outlook remains uncertain, as the company grapples with declining COVID vaccine sales, weaker-than-expected 2025 revenue projections, and an ongoing shift in its R&D strategy. However, its pipeline of combination vaccines and upcoming approvals may offer a longer-term upside if execution is successful.
Technically, NASDAQ:MRNA needs to hold its key support zone and break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to shift market sentiment positively. Until then, investors should watch for further signals of strength, particularly in trading volume and RSI movement, before confirming a potential bullish turnaround.
In the coming months, all eyes will be on Moderna’s next earnings report and the market’s reaction to its cost-cutting measures and pipeline advancements. The stock’s ability to sustain recent gains—or break lower—will depend on whether the company can deliver on its strategic shifts and stabilize its revenue trajectory.
