Pre-Market Prep 7.18.2025What it do, everyone! Here’s my pre-market prep for Friday, July 18th. Just to give you a quick overview, I'm using my prior value areas, the prior day's high and low, and the CVA levels from my market profile. I use all this history to help me plan my trades for the day.
So, starting with the S&P, as of now we’re green across the board. We’re in balance up from the prior day’s range, value area, and the CVA. My main plan is to look for acceptance and a pullback to a confluence area for longs. If we get rotational and break out of that area, I’m ready to go short.
For the NASDAQ, it's a similar story. We’re rotational in the prior value area and range, but we’re balanced up from the recent CVA. Right now, I’m waiting to see if we can confirm acceptance and then I’ll look for a short from that rotational area down to the prior value area low.
In the Russell, I’m seeing clear acceptance above all levels, so a pullback to the confluence area for a long would be ideal.
For Gold, I’m also seeing it in balance up on all fronts. My first move would be a long from the prior day’s high. If we drop a bit lower, I’ll be looking at that CVA and PVA area for another long.
The Euro is a bit more mixed. We’re rotational in the prior day’s range but balanced up in the value area and CVA. I want to clear the prior day’s high before taking any big moves.
The Yen is also rotational, so I’m looking to trade the extremes, maybe some scalps while we’re balanced in the prior value area.
For the Aussie Dollar, we’re in balance up from the PVA, but rotational in the prior day’s range and CVA. I’m looking for shorts near the top area and longs at the bottom, staying out of the middle for now.
And finally, Crude Oil is rotational on all fronts. My first plan is to look for shorts from the confluence area down to the prior day’s range.
That’s my pre-market prep for today. Let’s trade smart. Happy Friday, peace!
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
TSLA: Don't Sleep on the PullbackTesla’s bullish momentum is still in control – the weekly chart shows we’re still in an uptrend, and the trend is still our best friend. After a strong bounce from support a couple weeks ago, price is now rejecting off a weak resistance zone. Ideally, this pulls it back into my entry zone to retest the bottom or the 50% mark of the current swing. I’m using trend lines for guidance and expecting the next swing to push up into that confluence area. My golden zone is set between $367–$390, with partial profits be taken at $367 (top of the channel) and the rest near $390, where we meet the trend line. Stop loss is placed at $241, just below the level where momentum would likely shift.
GBPCAD Bearish Continuation Patterns and ConfirmationsA broken daily demand zone, a resistance trendline showing direction to the downside, bearish continuation patterns (rejection patterns) and consistent H4 supply zones all indicate that this market is bearish and if the current H4 supply holds then use bearish confirmations on LTFs to short to the next support or demand zone.
Pre-Market Prep
Today, I'm narrowing down to six key markets. For the S&P, it's all about waiting for a pullback from the prior day's high or a breakout above the CVA. If it dips back inside the range, I'm ready to go short with some scalps.
For the NASDAQ, it's looking strong. I'm thinking about a long position if it pulls back to the prior day's high.
Gold is in a downtrend across all areas, and I'm already in a short position from the CVA low. I'm thinking about adding to that if it pulls back to the prior day's low.
Crude Oil is pretty balanced. I'm looking at the high of the CVA for a short opportunity if it gets there.
For the Yen and Euro, both are rotational. I'm eyeing long opportunities if they show some acceptance and pullbacks from key levels.
That's the vibe for today. Let's trade smart, avoid the chop, and keep it moving. Peace!
Gold Ranging Between HTF Zones — Buy Setup FormingHello everybody!
Price is fluctuating between two higher timeframe supply and demand areas.
The market structure on the lower timeframes changed yesterday, and now we’re watching to see if the newly formed small demand zone will hold.
The break of the downward trendline is our signal to enter a buy position.
XAU/USD 17 July 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold. Where to look for buy setupsHi traders and investors!
The price is currently in a sideways range, with the boundaries marked by black lines.
Sellers defended the buyer's first attempt to break through the 3366 level — the key volume in the candle that touched this level was accumulated exactly at that point.
Now, it would be ideal to symmetrically expand the range downward by 11.230 points, which would bring the price right to the 3310 level.
From the 3310 level, it makes sense to look for potential buy patterns.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
AUDCAD H1 BearishFactors of confluence in favor of short
1. Daily resistance zone 0.90432
2. Triple top
3. M pattern against resistance
4. RSI dipped below 50
5. Chop Zone change to bearish
6. Break of trendline
7. 3.5 R/R
8. Removal of liquidity zone on daily chart(prior high)
Risks
1. No LL yet
2. 2nd time back to daily resistance zone- may break through to upside
3. Price to return to congestion zone above for more consolidation before choosing a direction
4. Possibility to resume upwards momentum
GBPAUD BUY LOW OF THE RANGE (BLSHS)Price is in 3 month trading range, price attempted breakout in either direction but failed multiple times.
In a Trading Range we Buy Low Sell High Scalp (BLSHS).
- Upper Range is at (2.10379 - 2.09843).
- Low of the Range at (2.05636 - 2.04819) where price is currently at.
- Price formed a new higher low at 2.07375 showing buyers coming.
- Price was rejected strongly at the low of the range and formed RSI Divergence at the level signaling a reversal the upside.
- AUD employment data released today at 4:30AM if negative price will breakout strongly
Stop loss below the new higher low at 2.07375 or below the setup at 2.04423.
Take profit at 2.07045 or at the top of the range at (2.10379 - 2.09843).
NZDUSD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.60000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 3.93
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
GBPUSD - Is it Ready? Looking at GBPUSD
We have had a Market shift to the upside from a HTF Point of Interest. I am now waiting for price to come back into a 15min demand area and hopefully price will take off to the upside from here.
We have also swept liquidity before a drastic move to the upside.
Lets see how this one plays out
Pump Coil Dump Day 1-2-3 USDJPYUSDJPY Reversal Trade.
Points to Notice
Day 1 - Sets the new week high and low. Establishes a new week closing price as a target for a day 3 setup.
Day 2 - Typically expands Mondays range in the direction of the underlying oder flow. This occurs as a pump/ dump leading to the Asia and London coil sideways.
Day 3- We take note of the previous day high and low to observe price going into the NY session. In this case Price gave signs of a coiling reversal into the evening setting up for the move below Day 2 closing price.
Ideally what you want to see in this template is traders faked into a breakout move in the direction of the pump. This can present as a candle close above yesterdays high or closing price.
After trapping traders in we see the change in order flow creating a new lower low. This is the confirmation to look for an entry at the previous days closing price.
We set a stop at the high of day 3 level or at the previous days high with a target at the previous days low. In extreme cases we may see a setup that expands to the LOW level.
THE ONLY IMPORTANT DATA POINTS.
- PREVIOUS DAY HIGH AND LOW
- CLOSING PRICE
- LOW HOW LEVELS
- DAY COUNT
MARKETS ONLY DO TWO THINGS
- BREAKOUT, FAIL, REVERSE
- BREAKOUT, RETEST, TREND.
ONLY LEVELS THAT ARE TRADED
- PREVIOUS DAY HIGH (STOP LOSS)
- PREVIOUS DAY CLOSING PRICE (ENTRY)
- PREVIOUS DAY LOW (TARGET) CMCMARKETS:USDJPY FX:EURUSD OANDA:USDJPY
GBPJPY in Premium Zones of 2008 Financial Crisis - {17/07/2025}Educational Analysis says that GBPJPY (FX pair) may give trend Trading opportunities from this range, according to my technical analysis.
Broker - FXCM
So, my analysis is based on a top-down approach from weekly to trend range to internal trend range.
So my analysis comprises of two structures: 1) Break of structure on weekly range and 2) Trading Range to fill the remaining fair value gap
Will Jpy start to lose value like it is doing since 2019 or it will do free fall same like 2008 crisis.
Let's see what this FX pair brings to the table for us in the future.
Please check the comment section to see how this turned out.
DISCLAIMER:-
This is not an entry signal. THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS,
Happy Trading.
NZDCAD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.82000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 2.66
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Long trade
15min TF
BTCUSD Perpetual – 15-Minute Chart Analysis
Key Trades Highlighted
Trade #1:
Type: Buyside trade
Entry: 114,171.5
Profit Level: 118,677.0 (+3.97%)
Stop Level: 113,635.5 (–0.47%)
Risk/Reward: 8.63
Entry Time: Thu 10th July 25, 5:15 pm (NY Session PM)
Target Reached: Fri 11th July 25, 5:30 pm
Trade Duration: ~24 hrs 15 min
Trade #2:
Type: Buyside trade
Entry: 116,411.5
Profit Level: 121,406.0 (+4.29%)
Stop Level: 115,751.0 (–0.57%)
Risk/Reward: 7.56
Entry Time: Tue 15th July 25, 11:30 am (NY Session AM)
Chart Structure & Technicals
Trend: Strong bullish impulse, minor retracement, continuation attempt.
Moving Averages:
EMA (blue): 117,873.4 (dynamic support/resistance)
WMA (yellow): 117,858.0 (price riding above, confirming bullish momentum)
Key Levels:
Resistance: 121,406 – 121,390 zone (Profit Target)
Support: 116,416 – 116,411 zone (entry confluence for current trade), 115,751 (stop)
Major Swing Low: 113,635 (protective stop on previous trade)
Volume/Orderflow Insights
Impulse up from below 114k, pausing at 121k resistance.
Volume is considered likely to increase at key support zones (116,400–116,000) and around target/profit-taking regions.
Actionable Trade Ideas
If Long:
Stay in: As long as price holds above the 116,411–116,416 support, with stops below 115,751.
Targets: 121,406 (major), consider partials at prior swing highs or if momentum stalls.
If Not In:
Re-entry Zone: Watch for bullish reaction at 116,416–116,000; enter on confirmation (engulfing, break of LTF structure).
Invalidation: Clean 15-min close below 115,751, or signs of heavy sell pressure.
If Short Bias:
Wait for a break and retest below 115,751 for a possible short to 114,700, but primary bias remains bullish above this zone.
Summary Table
Trade Direction Entry Stop Target R: R Duration Status
#1 Long 114,171.5 113,635.5 118,677.0 8.63 24h 15m Closed TP
#2 Long 116,411.5 115,751.0 121,406.0 7.56 In Progress Active trade
Outlook
Maintain bullish bias as long as 116,400 holds.
Look for trend continuation toward 121k+ on breakout.
Monitor for reversal signals if price fails to reclaim/hold above WMA or EMA.
Skeptic | XAG/USD Analysis: Precision Triggers for Spot & FutureHey everyone, it’s Skeptic! 😎 Ready to ride XAG/USD’s next wave? Let’s dive into XAG/USD (Silver) to uncover long and short triggers that can deliver solid profits. Currently trading around $ 36.31 , we’re analyzing Daily and 4-hour timeframes to pinpoint high-probability setups. Here’s the no-nonsense breakdown to keep you sharp. 📊
📈 Daily Timeframe
On the Daily timeframe, we saw a strong primary uptrend sparked by a V-pattern breakout at $ 33.68317 , which drove a 10% rally, as flagged in my previous analyses—hope you caught it! We’re now in a consolidation box, potentially acting as accumulation or distribution. Today’s candle faced a strong rejection from the box ceiling. If it closes this way in 9 hours, the odds of breaking the box floor increase significantly.
Key Supports: If the floor breaks, watch $ 34.78648 and $ 34.41291 as strong reaction zones for potential bounces.
4-Hour Timeframe (Futures Triggers)
On the 4-hour timeframe, let’s lock in long and short triggers:
Long Trigger: Break above resistance at $ 37.29163 , confirmed by RSI entering overbought. Check my RSI guide for how I optimize setups with RSI.
Short Trigger: Break below support at $ 35.59660 , with volume confirmation. Additional confirmation: RSI entering oversold.
Confirmation Timing: Choose your confirmation timeframe based on your style—4-hour, 1-hour, or even 15-minute. I typically confirm triggers on 15-minute closes for precision, but if 1-hour momentum kicks in, I use 1-hour candle closes. Focus on candle body closes, not just shadows, to avoid fakeouts.
Pro Tip: Stick to 1%–2% risk per trade for capital protection.
Final Vibe Check
This XAG/USD breakdown arms you with precise triggers: long at $37.29163, short at $35.59660, with volume and RSI as your allies. The Daily consolidation signals a big move is brewing—stay patient for the ceiling or floor break. Want more cycle-based setups or another pair? Drop it in the comments! If this analysis sharpened your edge, hit that boost—it fuels my mission! 😊 Stay disciplined, fam! ✌️
💬 Let’s Talk!
Which Silver trigger are you eyeing? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s crush it together!
USDCHF ENTRY CHARTWe are BULLISH on this Pair, as we have a shift in trend at yesterday's daily close, the INTRA-DAY TF trend as also shifted to the upside, on our h1, we got a breaker block+ inducement with other confluences, if this matches with your idea, you can add to your watch-list. THANK YOU
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Your Trading Plan Explained
Do not forget that today we expect Crude Oil Inventories data
release - it will be 10:30 am NY time.
Ahead of this news, the market is testing a significant daily support cluster
that is based on a rising trend line and a horizontal structure.
You signal to buy will be a bullish breakout of a minor intraday
horizontal resistance on a 4H.
4H candle close above 66,5 will be your confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 67.6 then.
I suggest waiting for the news release first and then check how
the market prices in the news. If our technicals align with fundamentals,
it will provide an accurate setup.
Alternatively, a bearish violation of a blue support will push the prices lower.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️