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Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President? Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies My research setup is as follow: • I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms. • For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term. • The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th. Here is what I found: • Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%) • Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%) • Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term • George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%) • Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years • George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively • Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term • Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%) • Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%) Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%). Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset. Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%! Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market. Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies. • As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months • Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year • 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%) An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances. Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio. Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077). Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077). Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration: • A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February • He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract • He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May • Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts. There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses. The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks. For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5). The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive. The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
8
Traders Turning to Traditional Stocks and Dow Jones In July, most markets reached their peak, followed by a three-day global meltdown after the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike. Since then, all have recovered, but only the Dow Jones has surpassed its July high, while the others have not. AI and tech stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq, have lost their shine compared to traditional stocks like those in the Dow Jones. We will explore which sectors investors are gravitating towards this time and why they favor the Dow Jones over the Nasdaq this season. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options Ticker: MCL Minimum fluctuation: 1.0 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by konhow
6
Why a Cautious Bull on the US Markets?This is a classic bull market—smooth and trendy. However, it has become a cautious bull, moving within a much wider range, similar to what we observed after March. Especially in July and August: For the Nasdaq, it was down by 17%, but it has since recovered within a two-month period. Is this good or bad? It really depends on how we've positioned ourselves. If you're an investor, seeing your July positions slump so much only to recover so quickly could be quite unsettling—it might even give you a heart attack. But if you're a trader, you should find this volatility interesting and take advantage of it. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options Ticker: MYM Minimum fluctuation: Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by konhow
2
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?In my preceeding posts, I'm actually "bullish" on equities in the fourth quarter. SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye? And while I think this price action, coming on the back of news that the US Treasury will "only" issue $10 billion more worth of bonds this quarter (compared to like $160 billion last quarter), indicates that not only are we bullish, but going to take out the all time highs before year end... I have reservations on this SPECIFIC price action being "The Bottom". Before we go further, I will use the early space for those with low attention spans to warn you about the situation in Mainland China. The Chinese Communist Party is the scourge of humanity that seeks to use all beings to destroy all beings. Xi Jinping is its head, and the Party will fall. When you kill a dragon, you kill it by chopping of its head. But before you chop off its head, you often cripple it by chopping its tail. Former Xi Premier and right hand man Li Keqiang was killed by "a heart attack" recently, which is almost certainly code for the "Wuhan Pneumonia Pandemic." The Party's 24-year persecution, and organ harvesting genocide, against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners is a sin that 100.00% guarantees the Party's destruction. And that means it guarantees Xi's destruction, so long as he doesn't drop the CCP Gorbachev-style in time. It does not look like Xi is that intelligent of a man to do that. And so whatever bullish nonsense is arranged by Wall Street, who frequently sleeps with and transfuses blood to the Jiang Faction of the CCP, who are the architects of Falun Gong's persecution and the real evil force behind the Party and "China," to make sure that Communism globally can stay alive until the ruthless end, is subject to abject, merciless, brutal, and sudden truncation. Meaning any rally can be annihilated by international events that are beyond the control of the so-called "controllers" at any time, for we fundamentally exist in a Cosmos that is inherently Divine. There's some flaws on the SPY ETF, which is meaningful, because as I say many times, life revolves around banks and funds selling options and making sure they expire worthless. When we look at the monthly: October took out the June low, as I predicted earlier, but came up like a dollar shy of entering into the April wick. Moreover, when we look at the weekly: Which shows us more clearly the April-May double bottom is just 1%~ lower than the October low, and the $400 psych level is just 2% lower. With this kind of a squeeze happening only 3 trading days into November's candle, and failing to take the high, we're primed to set up for an "outside bar" November that takes out BOTH the low AND the high of October. But what this would mean is we're about to dump below the October low, where the real buying opportunity is. But two problems with the theory are: 1) There's no news drivers next week except for Jerome Powell talking on Thursday. 2) The bull thesis has to complete by December 31 and we're running out of time But that being said, when we had the October bottom last year, we had a 3-day 6% rally to open October before it turned around and took out the low and then rallied. And when we had the COVID bottom because the Fed slashed rates to zero and started buying equities, the market had a 10% rally over the course of a few weeks and gave almost all of it back before setting the biggest highs of all time. So this kind of manipulative behaviour is consistent with the market makers. How to trade it? Well, if it doesn't go down next week then just blindly long anywhere and so long as you aren't buying calls with 0 or 3 days to expiry, you should be okay. If it does go down, buy near the October low and under the October low. The problem is no short setup has manifested as of Friday close, and so we can only sit on the sidelines and look for longs. Whoever was bigly long from Monday or last week should really have taken significant money off the table, cashing in and realizing those gains, this afternoon. Don't forget the Dollar Index stopped just short of $108 and that's a big sign of coming manipulation and that we're too early. This is how algorithms are programmed. Good luck.
AMEX:SPY
by LordWrymouth
2
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?The last ten days of price action produced a retrace of significant magnitude that was very kind to institutional friends who were net long from early June. That is to say, what has transpired since all three indexes took their January of 22 failure pivot levels in early July has been more consistent with an optimal short entry combining with a bull trap, combining with a chance for big players who were either still full long or partially long to mitigate their losses and exit their positions. But retail, especially those who foolishly follow the messages emitted on social media, regard price action as "confirmation" that we're on our way to a new bull market. The macro economic situation is that the Federal Reserve has reiterated that while it may slow the pace of hikes going forward, depending on economic data, there is no intention whatsoever to pivot. When you consider the above in light of monthly candles trading so far above their long-term trendline, big big danger flags should be going off in your head. The reason is that Fed rates connect to bond yields. Bonds also have a feature where as they pay more interest the price also goes down, way down. What this means is that there's huge alpha to generate for big funds and big banks who trade very long time frames in selling equities at a high price, buying bonds at high yields and low prices, and sitting on that position instead of taking risks on commodities and equities while the world is in a really bad situation. Weekly candles show us more clearly that significant areas of concern that should be retraced to before any further upside is rationally thought to be on deck were not achieved before the bounce. A big problem facing the markets at present is the existence of the Q3 "JPM Collar," which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' It's worth noting that JPM, which sold calls with a strike of 4,665 at the end of July, has not been in the red on that portion of their position yet, although whoever bought them has certainly made money since price approached 4,665 very quickly after purchase. The bigger component of their trade is that the most significant bank on this planet is long 15,800 puts with a strike of 4,225 that have never been in the money since they were purchased. Expiry date is September 29. Because of time decay, for JPM to break even on that portion of its position, we would need prices approach 4,000 and the VIX to push over 20 to pump implied volatility premium, and all in only a few weeks. And although this is a Nasdaq call, one index fuels all three indexes. A problem with thinking the indexes have bottomed is that while the Nasdaq may have rebalanced a gap before the pump, the SPX did not: And even less did the Dow, which has traded like a heavy bag of rocks despite having the strongest recovery from last October's dump of any of the three indexes. The algos have a habit of making all three indexes do the same thing before the page really turns. You're also dealing with a worldwide economic and geopolitical situation where everything is heavily balanced by a horsehair. And that horsehair is the Chinese Communist Party, which looks like it will take Xi Jinping to its grave with it. The CCP is about to collapse, and it will happen overnight, in the middle of the night, and there will be a lot of gap downs. The reason the market is still trading in a structured way is simply because the U.S. Empire and the globalist faction, which wants to install the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide, ramble on about "War With Taiwan" all the time because the intention is to take control of China when the CCP falls using a Taiwan-based proxy. "But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry." The problem for all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999. Organ harvesting, rape, murder, and things worse than organ harvesting have never been beneath the CCP, and unfortunately, the rest of the world who has been funneling blood to the Party all these years to keep it afloat so it can keep on lying to the world. And so what I can tell is arranged is that we dump hard into the end of Q3, and then it seems to me that we rally in Q4, probably back towards the index highs, with all of 2024 being an economic nightmare. Donald Trump looks like he's going to prison and won't be able to save you. Not that Donald Trump is capable of saving anyone, lol. So Biden will win by default because nobody is going to vote for DeSantis or Vivek, and the socialist spending schemes and the crashing of the world economy is arranged. But because the CCP is on the brink of falling and China is not a country that any outside forces have ever been able to capture in its 5,000 year history, perhaps before the year is out we will see the rally truncated sharply. "Watch Out For Fire." The call: Short Nasdaq now anticipating a ruthlessly bloody September, close under 14,000. Go long under 14,000. Close when you have a lot of profits and cash out. Brokerages aren't going to be processing withdrawals anymore than Binance is right now when the CCP collapses. Everyone will be trying to run for their lives. It's very dangerous. Nobody should have supported Marxist-Leninism, the CCP, and the persecution of Falun Gong's true cultivators. But they did. And the consequences are not something people can bear.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
13
Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The EndFor whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire. And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt. This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies. There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong. Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week. What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world. The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy. Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one. Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot. If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%. The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party. Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble. Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index? It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause. And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population. Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason. What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night. Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first. But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered. It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet. It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible. So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on? Have we bottomed? What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday. If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed. And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity. The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this: 1. Dumping hard into October 2. Retracing it all into December 3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud. I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes. It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news. And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high. The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing. Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end. And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation. The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight. In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest. The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity. What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend. TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high. This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665. I discuss this collar below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this: The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients. Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity. The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid. Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400. Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one. For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge. So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660. And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day. During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs. I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher. However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August. But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely. Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping. This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3. So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
SPY - It's Life or Death For BearsIn this post I would like to remind everyone of two critical points: 1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019. 2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market." == A Caveat: The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet. What's really going on is extremely dangerous. There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP. By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments. The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night. If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once. It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York. == I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range. The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity. The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind. Monthly Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher. So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion: Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024? Two things to consider: 1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23. (This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse) 2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election So where we're at right now is make or break: Weekly For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later. Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace. If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024. However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead. It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum. What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy. If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup. The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area. But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later. Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality. But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets. It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
AMEX:SPY
by LordWrymouth
3
SPX500 - The Smallest Retrace & The First To GoI have to point out once again that, despite all the bearish fundamentals, market price action is simply not a bear market. You see this so clearly on SPX's monthly bars: During the worst of October, all the market was really doing was retracing to the two-month late 2020 orderblock that ultimately led to the 4,800 ATH. Price has since retraced and the markets at large don't like to dump, even on bad news. Even CPI coming in hot didn't lead to much of a dump. The Geopolitical Climate With China The most important factor when trading these markets is that you have to keep an eye on what's going on with China at all times. I've talked in my previous posts extensively and ad nauseum about how the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has killed a lot more people than the Chinese Communist Party and western establish media let on. But what this all points to is simply that the Party is in a weakened state. What the Party being in a weakened state means is that a number of geopolitical factions, most notably the western globalist (western Communist Party) bloc has its eyes on how to seize and take control of China as the evil regime falls. The way the globalists will do things is not to invade China, because the Chinese people and the world will not recognize a western occupation of the mainland. Instead, over the years, groups like the World Economic Forum and other globalist arms have, for a long period of time, been grooming certain Chinese nationals, who are themselves members of the Party, to make preparations for how to seize control of the country when Xi Jinping falls. The problem the globalists face is that they aspire to install a one world government. But to do that, they need the world's (formerly) largest population and oldest country, China. However, the existence of the CCP with its rogue, arrogant, and dominating nature makes this impossible, unless the globalists would like to make the CCP the center of the world government, which they obviously do not. Because they want to be the center of the world government. And so preparations have been in the works for years as to how to take control of China when the Party is gone. The problem for humanity is that China's 5,000 years of tradition and culture are critical for the future. Yet, everywhere the globalist faction goes you get a twisted, atheist, modernist culture that can't tell the difference between genders, is highly promiscuous, and serves in many ways as a force even worse than the CCP has been in its weakened state over the recent years. And so, this is the real threat: what the globalist faction will do when it feels the CCP is teetering on the edge. Anything is on the table, because a global crisis will be needed in advance. Environmental disasters, pandemics and plagues, war, problems with nuclear plants, social problems within certain countries, Project Bluebeam stuff, all are on the table. And all such risks are on the table at any time, and these problems are arranged to unfold when the markets are high, not low, so as to create an additional layer of pain and panic in both the business and civilian sectors. A layer of the crisis wherein everyone is losing a lot of money is important, because it hurts and causes a lot of damage, and the Party needs a significant and intense crisis in order to have the pretext needed to "save you" from as they install one world government, which is really, the "Ultimate Goal of Communism." So, be careful. Whatever you believe is your own business, but at least someone is willing to warn you of what is unfolding under your nose. The call On weekly bars you can see that the February FOMC pump came up just short of the September CPI gap surprise panic that led markets to the 2022 low of the year: What this should tell you is that no matter the bearish narrative prevailing or the bearish, scary impulse that may be coming, the SPX has not topped. Instead, I believe after we're finished being scary for a bit, we're going to see 4,500. Moreover, because I believe that Oil, Natural Gas, and even Silver are prone to go up in the shorterm, that the SPX's retrace is going to be the smallest, and it'll be the first of the indexes to go up. WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58 Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming. Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp A 200 point dump into the 3,800s is enough to make SPY calls expire worthless, enough to scare bulls, trap bears, and enough to give you a 15% upside for a run to 4,500. You need to fade the bear hype right now, but you also have to be careful about how and when you get in. That means utilizing ETFs, commons that compose the index, and calls that have a 3-6 month expiry, because things could take 30 or 45 days to really unfold and really breakout. But importantly, if you do see SPX 4,500 and 4,600, you have to check your enthusiasm. You might see a new ATH, but that ATH may serve to be a bump and run reversal that will seriously hurt you. And most critically, you need to focus your effort on improving your character, taking care of your family, and patching up whatever regrets you're carrying around. Because life is short. Human life is so short. Everyone is about to experience and understand again just how fragile human life really is. Be careful, friends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
11
SPX / ES - Get Ready for a Head Fake, and an OpportunityIn my recent calls, I have made predictions for Apple to set new all time highs, Tesla to print at least $250 again, and Nasdaq to 14,000. However, whenever price action fails to follow suit with expectations, one must revise, revise, and revise again the situation at hand. With this week's price action topping on Tuesday after what should have been a significant bull catalyst in the lower CPI print, causing SPX and Nasdaq to go as wild as the Dow has, it can only be ascertained that the makers not only do not want to go higher, but are likely to head lower, and they'll be in a hurry. I have been simultaneously conflicted by the fact that I do expect SPX and Nasdaq to run to their COVID lows with the fact that there isn't any news primed until December and timing is awkward with the next FOMC being a month away and US Thanksgiving being late next week. There's a significant fractal from June daily bars that's very similar to where we're at now, where we ultimately made the Low of the Year, which held until September, and then October. The problem is that everyone is expecting a dump, because although there really isn't any fear and nobody is actually positioned bearishly, the sentiment is still bearish. I said on Twitter the other day after hearing that Michael J. Burry from Big Short 2008 GFC fame said "You have no idea how short I am," that these types of guys are allowed to tell you what is going to happen, but not when it is going to happen or where it is going to happen. They're allowed to speak the truth insofar as it makes retail offside. If they were to really reveal the truth that they know, they would disrupt the markets and their access to credit facilities and swap lines would be revoked. What I mean by the above is that for retail, you're going to be baited into going hard on puts and shorts, but this isn't yet the moment of impact everyone who believes interest rates and recessions mean SPX 2,000 straight line no bounce have been waiting for. Meanwhile, although the VIX isn't showing much in the way of signs of life, the put to call ratio is as high as it's been since 2008 quietly starting around Wednesday. The US Dollar Index has also started to show poppyness after running a key low. Signals are great, but price action has to confirm, and as of now, it indicates that the indexes and stocks do not want to trade higher. Thus, what I believe and am expecting to happen is that indeed we do dump, and violently, and fast. It is imminent. Perhaps as early as Sunday futures open. It will be scary. However, what I think is that the dump will really be a bear trap. It won't go as low and it won't stay as dipped as everyone is expecting. When it starts to bounce, it will bounce a lot, and hard, and catch people off guard. This time, there won't be a retrace. Thus, what I am anticipating is for the SPX to print at least a low 3,600s tape. More likely, I believe SPX will actually trade back toward 3,500, but not take the low out. What I want to tell everyone is this: You need to stop listening to the Stocktwits and the Twitter and the Discord and the WhatsApp feeds. You need to unfollow these guys that are filling your head with notions about interest rates and yield curves. The more you fill yourself with those concepts, the more you will be manipulated into trapping yourself offside and the more you will be unable to take advantage of the real move. The more you will blow your accounts. The reason is, there is a logic behind why bear markets rally so hard. A bearish market rallies, simply put, because smart money doesn't sell low like you do. They sell high. So they sell high, buy back low, sell high, buy back low, and the market has to be engineered around this, or they won't participate, because losing money means death. The next bear market rally is going to be like 40%, and it's going to be rather impressive. Bears will be so angry, not realizing that the rally's climax is the "Big Short" they've long been awaiting. Allow me to issue my own "Cassandra": Be warned, for when all the stocks and the indexes are high again, the day the Chinese Communist Party will be thrown out from this world is during Beijing time, not New York time. It will happen in the middle of the North American's night. It will catch very literally almost everyone off guard. The limit down when the NYSE opens that day will be 15% on indexes and it won't be the bottom, it won't bounce. That day is very close. Nobody expected the USSR to fall, and yet Gorbachev and friends threw it away anyways. China's traditional 5,000 year dynasty culture is mankind's only hope for a future, and it will absolutely be not only preserved, but resurrected.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
14
SPX500 / ES - The Faint of Heart Shall Have Fainting HeartsThe truth is that a difficult market will forge a trader (assuming you stay solvent, lol), whereas markets like the 2020-2021 bull run, which everyone so desires to reappear, do not. There is nothing to achieve by buying calls at literally any point, whether high or low, and watching it immediately turn green and run for days. Of course, a lot of people still lost money buying the top and paper handing the retraces or being on short expiry OTM calls, but a gambler is a gambler and a professional is a professional. This market is really hard to trade because it's not trending. It's still seek and destroy, and with a lot of psychological manipulation. All the sirens sing recession. All the wolves howl the Federal Reserve isn't going to pivot. Then YEN-USD is going to 250. WTI is going to $3,000. The UK is going to turn into Nigeria. Credit Suisse, which is already $3, is going to 50 cents and that's really scary "OMG it's Bear Sterns," wow this smells and looks like 2008, hah, hah! etc, etc. The reality is that October has already made a new 2022 low, and after September already made a new 2022 low, and frankly, we're not done making 2022 lows quite yet. But the truth is also that very few people understand how much of a problem it will be for what I dub the Eighth Communist International, more commonly known as the Democratic Socialists of America/Neoconservative-captained NATO bloc, to have the U.S. equities market crash before it is time to roll out the One World Central Bank Digital Currency, which will incorporate the notorious Chinese Communist Party's heinous social credit and "Zero-COVID" schema. The reason you have never seen the US equities markets actually crash is this reason. The 2008 and 2020 crashes were called stop raids and buying opportunities. The US equities markets have really never seen a bear market. You're still not in a bear market. You're just in the retracement of the greatest bull run the most ridiculously resilient stock market has ever seen. To business: I believe that we will see SPX and Nasdaq both run, or at least bounce, their pre-COVID highs, because Dow already did in both June and September and October: And where one goes the other two seem to like to play Monkey See, Monkey Do. However, 3,000 SPX is a bit too much of a fall at present, to be honest, so I have my eyes on SPX following what Dow did in June, which is to bounce off the pre-COVID high around 3,400. Note that next FOMC rate hike is Nov. 2, a Wednesday, and Timraios from WSJ, who is more or less JPow's unofficial spokesperson, has already said 75bps is inbound. Note that last FOMC everyone and their vegetable crisper knew that 75 bps was en route and we still ate a massive 200 point down day that set off a formidable and sustained dump. Note that the US midterm elections are Nov. 8 and that markets have often bounced afterwards and that it's likely that a Republican "Red Wave" will be regarded as bullish in terms of how the narrative is spun. After all, the Neocons are, like, business people, or something. But before we get there, this previous week's price action makes it clear, in my opinion, that before FOMC we are going to take the 3,820 mark and set a new October high. The question will be, then, can one go short, or do we get pushed even higher back to the 4030 range? What will be tricky is if it lingers in the 38xx-39xx range until FOMC and the the FOMC manipulation wick is all the way into 4,000. I really do not believe that we are going to see the SPX lose a thousand more points in 2022. I think we will see numbers like that occur when the problems between the Russian Federation and NATO exacerbate further. Russia is unable to back down from the war and NATO and DC cannot back down from the war. What lies ahead is a nuclear or biological conflict, for real. The war is only going to end when there is a winner between the two, or more accurately, when Heaven settles our problems for us with a real disaster. I also do not believe that the markets will crash at the Federal Reserve or the Biden Administration's hand. That will be terrible politically and will cause a lot of problems for the 8th Comintern on the global stage, so it will be arranged instead that the market crash necessary for the installation of global Communist social credit/CBDC is predicated on the back of a disaster that we will probably be told to blame Putin/Xi for, one that technocracy will be purported to save our very lives from. But in the meantime I also do not believe that we have seen the 2022 bottom. I think there's a BIG Q4 rally en route wherein Nasdaq goes totally apeshit while energy stocks, oil, natural gas, and defense contractors dump, because the real problems are in 2023. If you understand why the markets will do this, you will understand how if it unfolds as I have said, it is a Level 99 Red Alert. A real Level 99 Red Alert. If this society makes it through to 2024, that will really be something. The problems that lie ahead are that dire. What I want to see and expect to see before that Q4 rally occurs is a "bullish breaker" that takes out the October low. A real likely candidate for how that unfolds is for it to occur in early November, arguably on the back of dovish news from FOMC, with November as a month ending up forming an outside bar that leads into a December and January mega rally. If you do puts above 3,850 you should buy them with a lot of time on the contract and be prepared to have to average down. It may be worth hedging spot long with a liberal stop and a total willingness to abandon a green long early. Apple needs to make a new low before you can put on your rally hats, but the manipulation is coming both ways so that you'll be scared to be long when you need to be long and will be scared to be short when you need to be short. One last thing: Xi Jinping had his predecessor Hu Jintao removed from the Chinese Communist Party's summit today, Twitter says. No matter what Wall Street and Comintern 8 have planned, when the CCP falls, SPX is losing 1,000 points that day because it isn't on anyone's schedule. Be careful. Danger abounds and this can end at any time.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
1
MYM Showing Signs of Bull Trap | Market Structure"Show me the weekly charts and I'll show you the news" For MYM/ Dow Jones we have a clear market structure being formed with lower highs and lower lows with a distinct trend line. There is still bearish news with inflation until December at least for the feds, the market is showing signs that we are preparing to go short for the next month or so. If we close Friday with a wick on the weekly, prepare to enjoy some nice trends that shall sink like the Titanic over the next few weeks.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Short
by EarnWithTodd