NASPERS Buy trackUpdate on the buy speculation on naspers. Fundamental view was documented in previous idea. Market is in a correctional phase and will soon resume moving higher about R400000 p/s
Naspers
NPN long trade possibility on Daily ChartBear move is losing volatility (20 ATR at lows)
Selling momentum is decreased (20 Stoch)
At 200 MA support level
At the bottom of a bull flag pattern
Risk is that bull flag is extended a bit lower than ideal and support being properly tested
Naspers Buy Looking at long opportunities on NPN with the market having corrected to retest the breakout from the previous monthly high. Market is poised to move higher to break previous monthly highs.
Prosus NV and Tencent Holdings Ltd. are investing in European online-trading group BUX, giving the internet giants a greater foothold in the fast-growing sector.
The Dutch e-commerce group and Chinese developer of the WeChat app led a funding round of $80 million that BUX will use to expand its zero-commission investment platform.
With increased investments in its e-commerce space, this will give investors more confidence on the company's future share growth. E-commerce is a continuous market space that is vast in opportunities to diversify investments.
JSE:NPN Naspers Still Pushing LowerNaspers has been under pressure - see posts below - and is still pushing lower. A significant bar lower and failure at the 50sma could indicate another step-down.
Naspers - an interesting growth stockThe poster child of the South African stock market over the last several years has undoubtedly been Naspers, with its largest holding in Tencent.
I’ve tried to come to grips with the company and its individual parts which will take a bit more time, however, several things become apparent in the information at hand.
Naspers has been able to grow its revenue at a phenomenal rate for more than a decade. Its revenue peaked in in 2016 with a fall of over 50% in its 2017 reported revenue. Since then, its continued to grow its revenue and earnings per share.
Its average free cash flow margin over the last 5 reported years ending 2020, is around -2.71%. Its average EBITDA over the last 5 reported years ending 2020, is also negative at around -6.51%.
This typically isn’t an issue if the company continues to grow its revenue as it has in the past whilst investing in new and exciting ventures.
Its debt to revenue has steadily been increasing and now sits at over 100%.
There are a few concerns that I have regarding the “health” of the company’s financials, however, it needs to be taken into perspective with the future growth strategy of the company.
Based on the chart it appears that a wedge pattern has formed above the long-term channel. Maybe this suggests a possible breakout within the next 2-3 weeks?
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
South Africa is a fundamental buy #EZASouth Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the Sovereign Bonds, which doesn't seem to be on the near term horizon. Naspers makes up 25% of the ETF, and with it's holding of Tencent in China, it should perform well given recent macro inflections out East. Recent Chinese PMI and output upticks prove the current reflationary theme being played out here in Q1 2020. Technically, the symmetrical triangle looks poised for a breakout or breakdown. Given the fundamental picture, I believe there is great risk/reward to the upside.
NPN - Triangle breakout within parallel channelJSE:NPN has broken out of the bottom of a triangle pattern, moving in a downward direction. Along with this, it has been trading within a parallel channel since mid-July and it has bounced off the top of the channel which could serve as confirmation for a short position. If it continues with this downward momentum, I will enter short with a target at the bottom of the channel.
NASPERS overview Following the Elliott wave retrograde analysis, we see a significant head and shoulders with a high bearish momentum; the defining price range for the next rally is entirely based around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
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WeChat about NaspersWith uncertainly about WeChat being banned in the US as well as the TikTok situation, Huawei etc and other Chinese companies' status on US stock exchanges uncertain, could temporally affect Naspers, as can be seen in the multiple tops and gaps created lately.
When and if it breaks the diagonal trendline, there are 2 support zones below. Could be a volitile move down with gap ups included.
----Could also create another peak, which would form a large head and shoulders structure.----
Also the Level 2 pop on Monday 17th was very short lived
My personal view, not a trade recommendation
Naspers JSE:NPN
H&S forming on NaspersJSE:NPN is currently forming a small head and shoulders pattern on the 1D chart. If it continues downwards and confirms the break through the necklinr, we could be looking at a target around the 224000 level.
Naspers - Possible downward move coming up.JSE:NPN has been trending upward since mid-March and with today's opening, it finally broke below the trendline that has formed. Although unconfirmed as of yet, this could mean a move to the downside. I'll be keeping an eye on what happens here next week for a possible short position.
Possible Trend Reversal on ProsusJSE:PRX formed a bearish harami on Thursday last week which is a top reversal signal.
This was confirmed by the break through the upward trendline and the stochastic.
This could mean a move downward for a while if confirmed by breaking below the low of last Wednesday.
Elliott wave retrogradeElliott triangle+correctional waves will see NASPERS deem a double top invalid as the bull market continues. Fibonacci is used to identify an all-time high.
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$JSENPN $JSEPRX Its raining Head & Shoulders in Naspers & ProsusWe are developing a scary head and shoulders top formation in both Naspers and Prosus. Should we convincingly break below the necklines of the respective charts at approximately R2376 and R1050 respectively, we have downside targets some 18.6% and 13.6% away from current levels on Naspers and Prosus. (Price targets if H&S formation plays out, NPN : R2014, PRX: R927)
Head & Shoulders on NaspersJSE:NPN has formed a head and shoulders pattern and we could be looking at a nice downward move if it continues downward through the neckline.
H&S Target reached and failed to confirm a break of support.JSE:MCG formed a Head & Shoulders pattern between March and December 2019, which played out nicely and reached it's target which perfectly coincided with the lowest low of 9031 from 6 March 2019. With yesterday's movement, it broke slightly lower, but retraced and failed to confirm with the close of the candle. Failing to confirm below this low could mean a possible upward move. I will wait for confirmation before entering a long position.
NASPERSOn the Monthly chart for Naspers, here is what I see, we had a bullish reversal pinbar which shows that buyers did take the market up to the 278447 level on 2017 but for the past two years it hasnt been able to get back to that level, meaning the sellers were also trying to gain momentum in that period. Now my prediction is that the buyers are going to be still a little dominant but its for a short period, maybe in the next two months but after that we looking at a more stronger short position. I believe that leg "A" should be equal to leg "C" thus the set target which is almost complete. The drop there should drop us down all the way to the 50.00 or 61.8 Fb zone. Lastly, we also have the RSI Divergence confirming, now we just need to lookout on smaller timeframes for better risk management.
Possible reversal on NPNJSE:NPN is trading at quite a strong resistance level at the moment. If it fails to break higher, the chances are good for a downward move. The stochastic seems to be confirming the trend reversal.
As always, I will wait for confirmation before entering.
NPN - Bullish EngulfingJSE:NPN has a bullish engulfing candle at a support level which could indicate a turn upwards. The stochastic is also confirming so we could be looking at a long position.
$Tencent Observation: Flat bottom triangle? $JSENPN $JSEPRXTencent in Hong Kong looks to be developing a flat bottom triangle pattern - otherwise known as a descending triangle. My only concern from a technical perspective is that these patterns are normally continuation patterns which develop in the direction of the preceding trend. However, there are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend. Watch for a convincing daily close below the horizontal support line between (318-320). More importantly, a high volume break would provide better confirmation that this is indeed a true breakdown and will also provide a better probability that this pattern plays out. Should this technical pattern work out on a confirmed break below 318, it has a technical target of 243 HK$ which is roughly 24% away from current levels. The repercussions of this playing out has far-reaching consequences for our market given the elevated weightings which Naspers and Prosus occupy on our local indices.
What is also interesting to take note of is that the last time we saw the death cross (50dma < 200dma) in Jun/Jul 18' on Tencent, we witnessed the stock have an aggressive sell off from R400 down to R250. This death cross has once again taken place in September..
Naspers Key Resistance LevelThe Resistance level of 255942 has lined up with 2 previous resistance levels as before shown by the red arrows drawn.
I think a break above this level would signal we headed for new highs, if we reach this level and fail to break above i think we might see a retest at the bottom of the upward moving channel.
Naspers bullish updateInverted H&S still in play on the daily timeframe. Channel updated following yesterday's invalidation of previous channel. Parabolic SAR and moving average still supportive of a further upward move. ADX to confirm. Could see a retrace back to 3400 level before upward move.
