Going Short in Natural Gas Trade Indications:
1. Formation of Doji candle on daily showing no comfidence in the traders.
2 DOW theory HL & LL intact.
2. AB = CD pattern in formation.
3. Price at 61.8% FIb level support
4. AB=CD pattern intact
5. Natural Gas moderately bearish in December/ January
6. Bullish divergence on ST-Dev
7. Increase in seller volume.
Trade plan: Short / sell Trade
Entry point : Buy above the support zone @ 5.240 with bullish candle.
Stop Loss @ 5.560
Take profit - 1 @ 4.980
Take profit - 2 @ 4.770
Secondray Trade Buy / Long
If the AB=CD pattern succeeded and price value bounces from 4.750 , then place a long trade.
Entry price @ 4.820
Stop Loss @ 4.750
TP - 1 @ 4.990
TP - 2 @ 5.500
Regards.
Natural Gas
NATGAS Long Update! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
Here is another dimension
To the NG bullish forecast
That I posted last week.
In there we established
That the price is about to retest
The long-term rising support line
From where the rebound is almost
Inevitable. Now, the price has indeed
Almost reached that support and today
We are taking a closer look at the gas chart.
As you can see the rising support is
Confluencing with the horizontal support level
Which reinforces our bullish bias
And we are already seeing a bullish reaction
So I think that we can expect a move higher
And a retest of the local
Horizontal resistance level above
Buy!
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Natural GasDouble Bottom on 4hrs Time Frame. A Bulleh Pattern . Expecting a new upmove till the trendline.
NAS IDEANatural gas target > 7.5$
Natural gas price repeated the positive closings above the moving average 55, to form additional support at 6.750 in order to confirm confining trades within the bullish track that appears on the chart.
Stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum will assist to reinforce the chances of recoding many positive targets that might start at 7.200 and 7.650.
The expected trading range for today is between 6.800 and 7.650
NATURAL GAS BEARISH OUTLOOKThe cold weather in US had done little to support a price rise of the Natural Gas, while the consumption was lower than predicted.
The price of the gas had broken its support at $5.3 and might be heading further down, testing prices of 4.25 in the next couple of days. In the opposite scenario the price might try to reach levels of $6.07
RSI and MACD both are supporting the bearish movement with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI below the 50 neutral line.
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Could the Markets Crash in January?EU and US futures are recovering after the slide that followed the decision of the central bank of Japan.
Surprisingly, the central bank of Japan has revised the tolerance threshold of the ten-year bond yield to 0%-0.5%.
Some monetary policy adjustments have been talked about in recent days. Still, most economists expected that the most important announcements would come later, closer to the end of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's mandate.
In the press release, the Bank of Japan confirmed interest rates at -0.1% and anticipated a temporary increase in bond purchases for January to 9,000 billion yen a month from 7,300 billion.
What does it mean in practical terms? There is room for a rise in interest rates on Japanese ten-year government bonds. Previously the maximum range was 0.25; now, it is 0.50.
It is the first sign after a long time of a possible end to Japan's ultra-expansionary policies.
Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles the indices have exhausted their strength and are starting to go down.
The recession, which will lead to a substantial decline in earnings, is not yet discounted by the markets. This means there is plenty of room to descend.
Markets always anticipate a recession three months in advance so that we will see the real market crash in January.
The ideal instrument in these cases is the VIX - the S&P 500 volatility index - that usually scores excellent returns with a global recession at the door.
I will shortly open a buy operation on this instrument with a $35-36 target.
Natural gas: As predicted in previous articles, the crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short run and the long run right now. In the long run, the situation is interesting.
Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage as Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, one must be careful to avoid impulsive purchases.
There are big doubts about the reopening of the export plants, which have been offline for some time now and which are creating domestic excess supply, potentially negative for prices along with the seasonality.
Furthermore, the price cap on the TTF, set at 180, even if quite high considering thatfour4 years ago, the TTF was quoted at 20, will certainly put a stop to speculation by lowering prices, exactly what we are seeing now.
This is also indirectly affecting American natural gas as it is very likely that next year American gas will be increasingly the protagonist in Europe with the exit of Russia.
I will evaluate a gas entry only in the 4.50-5 area, prices that I expect between the end of December and the beginning of January.
Crude oil proves very solid despite the collapse of the indices. Two main reasons are behind the excellent performance.
The price cap, although not penalizing Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil, which is very positive.
Chinese oil demand, held back by COVID, will pick up in 2023.
All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as it creates a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long term with a target of $85-90.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): As written in previous articles, prices were too high already at the beginning of 2022. I'm still pessimistic, the profitability of the group has practically disappeared, and the prospects for 2023 are negative.
According to my model, the stock is worth $70, so it can go further down.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Bad period for the stock is destined to continue. There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to a weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) is increasingly threatening.
Also, Elon Musk is increasingly distracted by Twitter. As written early in 2022, according to my model, the stock was worth $170 and was already very expensive at the beginning of the year.
My current positions: I currently have a buy position on the Dax index, which is about to close in profit.
NATGAS Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is trading along the
Long-term rising trend-line
And the price is about
To retest the support
From where a rebound
And a move up are
To be expected
Buy!
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Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Time to Grow?! 💨
Natural Gas dropped to a key weekly/daily demand zone one more time.
Chances will be high to see a pullback from that.
A bullish breakout of a falling parallel channel on 1H time frame confirms the strength of bulls.
Goals: 5.6 / 5.8
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Dec 20,22-NG-Did anyone else go long?So there was some consolidating around 5.4 so I put a Buy Order in and so far so good. I'll probably get out of it by close on Friday as Monday temps are back to warmer temps so I don't want to get burned by a huge dip when the markets open again on Sun night.
Did anyone else put their Buy order in? Or am I the only crazy one :-)
Heiko
Dec 20,22-NG-Go Long at 5.4? or 5?Price is continuing to drop even though the temperature this week across the U.S. especially into Christmas is going to be damn cold!!
So the question is...will price drop all the way down to 5?? or should we get in now at around 5.4?
Both are areas of Support, and this cold is going to send demand through the roof, but when? Will price keep going down until Thurs or Fri this week? Or will price spike up early next week?
All I know is I'm not missing out on this trade....could be a nice 1000 point spike :-)
What are your thoughts?
Heiko
Dec 19,22-NG-Not yet time to go longSO obviously my last call was horrible--I exited my position with a small loss.
The outside of the Linnear Regression Indicator is around the 5 mark so I'm thinking price action might drop to around there.
I will wait for clear signs of a turnaround, then I'll put in my Buy Order. I can't believe the price, I mean this is winter!! Anyway, sometimes there is no logic to trading.
When price gets down there I'll let you know what my plans are. With the holidays also, things are a bit wonky - might not even get a trade in until Jan.
To all, please have a safe and splendid Christmas, Holiday Season and a fantastic New Year!! Have a drink for me :-)
Heiko
Natural Gas to GrowIt seems NG has started a new impulse wave as it finished C move down in late October. The momentum in price sees a higher low, and a potential for a bullish continuation should see a test of $7.1 resistance level. Major resistance is seen at $9.7.
I see energy as the ONLY short-medium term gainer. NASDAQ has been underperforming greatly in the index range, and will probably continue to see lower demand as earnings have been disappointing, and Fed's tightening policy continues.
NAT GAS BREAKDOWNBreaking down bullish and bearish scenarios
Right now we LEAN bearish until we can close above the breakout line, though as we test it were neutral
Natural Gas Futures (Road Map)!!!🗺️What are Natural Gas Futures ❗️❓
Natural Gas Futures can be used for hedging or speculating and can be traded nearly 24 hours per day, 6 days per week. Trading Natural Gas Futures allows hedgers to manage risk within the highly volatile natural gas price, which is driven by weather-related demand.
Natural Gas Futures is running in Heavy Resistance Zone & Important Trendlin & Resistance Line, and at the same time, it was able to pass the main wave 5 in this zone. So I expect Natural Gas Futures to go down to my🎯targets🎯 that I showed in my chart.
Where can Natural Gas Futures go (🎯Targets🎯)❗️❓
Target🎯: 4.67$-4.55$
Target🎯: 2.98$-2.84$
Natural Gas Futures Analyze, Monthly Timeframe (Logscale).
Also, we can see one of the valid candlestick reversal patterns (💫Shooting Star💫) at a weekly timeframe 👇
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NatGas: Don't trip 🚶🏼NatGas is currently facing down and should leave the turquoise target zone to climb below the support line at $4.750 to complete the pink wave iii. Our alternative scenario implies, that the course could rise above the resistance mark at $7.064 instead, if the course would stay above the $5.337-mark. After the completion of the pink iii in our primary scenario, we're expecting the course to rise between $4.750 and $5.337 to finish off the pink wave iv, before dropping back South. The downwards slope should stretch until the turquoise target zone between $3.436 and $1.880 to end the green wave .
Dec 15,22-NG-Time to go long??I put in a Buy Order at 6.6.
Not sure what's going to happen tomorrow being the end of the week. What I do know is Europe is having colder than normal temps for this time of year and Germany just released that their supplies for NG have dwindled faster than expected for this time of year; hence, price for European NG could go up shortly.
Also, the Dec Contract Expiry is coming up and I have found NG goes up a bit toward contract end.
Also, the War - Also, weather in the U.S. is pretty cold - who knows if it will warm up or get colder - colder would be good for my Buy Order of course :-)
Anyway, I'm thinking price will drop a bit tomorrow and trigger my Buy Order. Then I will pray next week price goes up and up.
Heiko
InvestMate| Naturalgas Is Getting More Expensive🏭 🏭 Naturalgas is getting more expensive
🏭 Observing the behaviour of gas in the last few days, I come to the conclusion that the medium-term uptrend is not over yet.
🏭 As you can see gas has been in accumulation since the end of October.
🏭 But in recent weeks something like the next upward wave is building.
🏭 After today's 7.86% rise, further increases are not at all unlikely.
🏭 The nearest zone of resistance is around a cluster of two fibo levels. The first is 0.786 of the last major downward wave. The second is 1.618 of the last local downward wave.
🏭 The support zone is determined by the cluster of the 0.236 and 0.382 levels of the last downward wave.
🏭 Also noting that we have pierced the 50-period moving candle and the MACD and RSI are generating signals towards the continuation of the current uptrend.
🏭 We have no choice but to observe how the price will behave.
🏭 The scenario I'm playing out is a continuation of the uptrend to the designated resistance zone. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Update on US Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices – December 2022A cold weather snap forecast across much of the United States is driving demand for natural gas as a heating fuel higher. Prices of front month Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures have risen over the past week as a result. The front of the curve has moved more than the rest of the curve. The curve is now close to where it was two weeks ago.
Natural gas in storage is within seasonally normal range. Since June 2022, when Freeport LNG Terminal had to shut down after a fire, natural gas storage in the US has been ramped up as the gas produced in the US can no longer be exported at the same volume as prior to the shut-down. Freeport LNG accounts for close to 20% of US export capacity. Its re-opening has been delayed many times and the latest guidance from Freeport is a partial opening in mid-December 2022 and full production in March 2023 . However, in an email statement to Reuters they have pushed the reopening to end-of-year , and we remain sceptical that there will be any flow of LNG from the terminal this side of the of the New Year.
Ample storage could drive US natural gas prices lower when the cold weather snap passes.
Europe has been able to fill its natural gas storage capacity to close to 90% coming into the start of the winter period (October 2022) and is now drawing on that capacity at a slower than expected rate due to thrifting and an initially milder-than-expected weather pattern. However, colder weather has arrived, which could drive higher demand. Natural gas flows to Europe from Russia have slowed to a trickle and hence the region is reliant on Liquified Natural Gas from elsewhere. Unfortunately, with Freeport LNG offline, the US will not participate fully in meeting this demand over the coming weeks, but US Henry Hub may get a boost when Freeport LNG opens.
The European Union is currently trying to implement a price cap on imports. There is no final deal to speak of, but the European Commission’s proposal, is for a market correction mechanism that would kick in when the price of month-ahead contracts on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility exceeded €275 ($290) per megawatt hour and the gap between world prices was greater than €58 . Any success in approving this price cap, could limit upside for US Henry Hub used as feedstock for LNG exports to Europe. However, with the price gap between US and European natural gas prices being so wide (almost 6 times ), we believe the upside could nevertheless very large.
Source:
1 FREE PORTING NEW ROUTER
2 Reuters
3 Bloomberg 13/12/2022
4 WisdomTree calculation on 13/12/2022 using Dutch TTF Gas 1st Line Financial Futures (USD/MMBTU) as published by ICE Endex who convert megawatt hour to Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBTU) and USD using the WM/Refinitiv Closing EURUSD Spot Rates as published by Refinitiv at 4 pm UK time and Henry Hub Front month futures.
$NGAS - Is the Gas Crisis Over? (Short Trade)$NGAS - Is the Gas Crisis Over? (SHORT)
With the Economy slowing, a variety of commodities are showing weakness, think about $OIL and $COPPER.
$NGAS is still retesting this channel breakdown.
I'm looking for shorts in this area as the potential rewards are huge.
The war in Ukraine may be coming to an end, and this could have an impact on the price of natural gas. If the conflict ends, it may be possible to increase the supply of natural gas from Ukraine, which could lead to lower prices. Additionally, Europe already has enough natural gas to meet its needs for the entire winter, which could also help to keep prices down. However, it is important to remember that the price of natural gas is determined by many different factors, and it is impossible to predict with certainty how it will change in the future on a fundamental level. The charts look good.
Dec 11,22-NG-Who's pissed off now?a 700 point Gap Up??? SERIOUS??
I am sooooooooooooooooo pissed off - I can't believe I missed this buying opportunity last week - like I told you all in my last post last week, I missed the buying opportunity, I screwed up....but then for fate to rub it in my face with a 700 point gap up over the weekend???? CRUEL!!
Totally Cruel.
Anyway, now that NG has gone up over 1000 points in 6 days, can it go higher?? or is price going to come back down a bit. Hard to say.
I'll tell you this though.....I will be watching like a hawk. If price goes down a bit, I think I might put in a Buy Order at 6.8 or so in case price spikes up. If price keeps going down, hits 6.6, then 6.4 then lower, then I will keep my Buy Order about 200 points above the current price in case price action reverses quickly one day this week.
I know Wed the FED is going to hike rates again and this is going to cause the markets to go crazy. I've already shorted the S&P500 and making money there so I'm keeping that trade. I'm also Long on Oil as there is the whole Russia uncertainty and U.S. Supplies are dwindling quickly so I'm keeping that trade also.
But NG?? Again - I think between now and March price will go up no doubt...I just want to get in at the best price possible, and that was LAST WEEK!!! :-(
Anyway, stay safe and hit me up with your comments - I wanna know what you all think - am I crazy? Or is price still gonna go up from here?
Heiko
NATURALGAS - Bullish price action ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my analysis of NATURALGAS .
Here we can see that price rejected one more time from support zone, so I expect we can see bullish price action upcoming days, but for medium term perspective I see price to take out liquidity below support zone.
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Dec 9,22-NG-Didn't go as low as is shouldSo how many of you missed getting in on the long trade this week? I DID!!
Piss me off - I was expecting price to get to the late Oct low of around 5 - I actually had my Buy order in at 5 and as we all know, it never got that low. So I was without a trade this week.
Now it's back up to 6 so I missed an 800 pt profit - oh well - at least I didn't lose any money :-)
We will have to see next week where price goes...good chance it might keep going up - colder weather, the War etc. Even though Oil is tanking - who knows, maybe Oil will recover next week. Anyway, I digress...
I hope everyone has an awesome Holiday Season. I have 2 weeks off work so I know I will have an awesome time!! :-)
Tons of food - tons of people - tons of visits to an from my home. Time to reconnect with everyone and have some bloody fun!
Take care and stay safe.
Heiko
