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Natural Gas

The reasons why going long oil is the best trade you can take!In my opinion, the global energy crisis isn't over; hence there are many reasons why being bullish on oil makes sense, and in this idea, I will try to analyze most of them one by one. First of all situation between Russia-Ukraine doesn't look any good, and it also heavily affects Europe, which is essentially directly involved in this war. Currently, gas from Russia to Europe is lost and can't be replaced because Russia has cut flows while someone sabotaged the gas pipelines. At the same time, Europe is about to ban Russian oil from being sold to Europe while also trying to apply price caps on oil and natural gas. All these essentially increase the oil demand (to replace natural gas) while also decreasing production in case Russia cannot sell that oil to somebody else. As if these aren't enough, as many foreign oil companies managing the production have left Russia, its oil production could drop even more as they don't have the knowledge and ability to control the oil fields themselves. The oil prices remain under control simply because the US keeps releasing oil from its SPR while China keeps pursuing its zero Covid policies. The US eventually will have to stop releasing oil from its SPR because the SPR was created for an emergency, not to keep prices low to buy votes. Not only will the US have to stop emptying its SPR, but it will also have to refill it. Also, China will eventually realize its futile attempt to contain omicron and stop its lockdowns. Essentially just the combination of the two would be an incredibly bullish development for the price of oil, as a lot of supply would come off the market. At the same time, demand will increase massively as Chinese citizens want to travel and consume more. Unfortunately, the US and the world are pursuing catastrophic policies regarding the energy sector instead of pushing investments into it. The windfall taxes on the energy companies will discourage investors from putting money in while starving companies of cash they could have used to invest in more energy production. At the same time, many rules against the extraction of fossil fuels and nuclear energy production are making things even worse. As if these haven't been enough, the US is also talking about an export ban, which, if implemented, would have catastrophic consequences for the world and the US. It would create a massive imbalance in the oil market, which would already have severe issues due to the European embargo on Russian oil. Recently OPEC+ announced oil production cuts, and the tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. While the US refuses to increase its oil output, OPEC+ cut production by 2 million barrels daily. However, here is the thing... OPEC+ agreed to reduce output that it was not achieving. The truth is that OPEC+ has reached its production limits, and most countries are failing to meet their quotas. There is no spare capacity, and it is tough for them to increase their output. Essentially the cut so far was mostly an admission that they can't produce more. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ want to keep the price of oil around 80$ and are ready to cut production to counteract the Fed's actions to reduce demand by hiking interest rates. There is an ongoing war been energy producers and Central banks, and the more central banks hike interest rates, the more energy producers will have to cut. Of course, with all the rate hikes and the global economy in a silent depression, we are slowly moving into a brutal recession in the next 6-12 months, which could knock oil prices much lower for a while. However, as central banks are already being forced to pivot, dumping reserves and resuming QE, we could see them and governments trying to stimulate an energy shortage, which could increase oil prices. Finally, the US has talked about refilling its SPR when prices are below 60-80$, while the Saudis talked about cutting production if the prices are below 80$. This means that the price area between 50$ and 80$ is worth going long, as the US and OPEC+ are creating a price floor by reducing supply and increasing demand. So what's the trade? Accumulate oil in the 50-90 area. No stops. Target 250-300$. Time horizon - 2 years.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BitcoinMacro
24
Natural GasSunday, 13 November 2022 01:00 AM (WIB) When I was small And Christmas trees were tall We used to laugh while others used to play Don't ask me why But time has passed us by Someone else moved in from far away Now we are tall And Christmas trees are small And you don't ask about the time of day But you and I Our love will never die To kiss and cry, "Come, first of May" The apple tree that grew for you and me I watched the apples falling one by one And I recall the moment of them all The day I kissed your cheek and you were gone Now we are tall And Christmas trees are small And you don't ask about the time of day But you and I Our love will never die To kiss and cry, "Come, first of May" When I was small And Christmas trees were tall Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo Don't ask me why But time has passed us by Someone else moved in from far away
N
by RyodaBrainless
2
Nov 9,22-NG-Get ready to go long folksNG has dropped a hell of a lot this week already, not sure how much more it can drop. I'm looking at Friday to get into a Long trade...if not then Sun night or Mon morning next week. Why? COLD WEATHER!! It's coming...damn cold weather across the U.S. Friday starts cold weather here in Toronto...in Alberta we already have snow on the ground. And next week in the U.S. it's gonna start getting quite cold, at least for U.S. standards. So I'm thinking price action will probably go back up. I still have my Buy Order at 7 waiting for some profits. I will put in an order maybe at 6, but I'm hoping to get in at 5.7 on a dip in price, sometime before the end of this week. Stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
9
Natural GasWednesday, 9 November 2022 22:04 PM (WIB) The Head N Shoulder, Tweezer Top Performance, and Three Black Crowes at the Resistance Lines confirmed the Natural Gas is still in the Bearish Market zone . At this moment, the price could face heavy pressure to downgrade. And for exit from the Bearish Market Pressure, Natural Gas has 2 Months period of negotiation, which means after December 2022, the price could be much lower than today. Following the news, Europe still has strong supplies of energy security for the winter season in December and after. Unfortunately, because this is the Crisis of the Recession, everything about the price is plunged to the ground. The major trend is still Bearish. Keep updated and note.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS
by RyodaBrainless
2
UNG: Best guess of what is next for natural gas. We did get a bounce up in natural gas after my first post on October 23rd. (see link below if interested). Price rose just enough to close the closest gap. In the hourly chart this was followed by a .78 correction. It may move lower in Monday to closes the small gap below the current price but sometimes starting gaps are not closed right away. If Monday goes up I would think it is likely the next higher gap would get closed. On the daily chart I used the daily RSI (using the positive reversal) to determine a possible target if the rally continues. When using the RSI remember it is determined by the closing price. As always: act on your own analysis. But I hope this is helpful. Have a great weekend.
AMEX:UNGLong
by goodguy
Natural GasTuesday, 8 November 2022 21:36 PM (WIB) There is traffics of Tankers carrying liquefied Natural Gas that are floating off Europe’s Coast, waiting for the price of the fuel to rise emerging the winter season. This is getting hot on Natural Gas because the price chart doesn’t look will rise higher. Although there is a big gap loop that reached around $7.322, the Bearish Market seems to refuse the Natural Gas price going higher. Or that might be a very brave and courageous negotiation from the Bearish Market? Until now, the price has reached $6.5 exactly where the MA200 stands on it. It looks like the Bears are coming with the superpower of volumes from upstairs. At this stage, there is no information about where is the direction of the Bears, because the MACD and Stochastic RSI not showing for the price has been oversold at all. However, as this bargain is getting bigger and bigger, it’s time for the Bullish Market to stand up at MA200. This will give a strong sign for the market to increase the price of Natural Gas. The price is still possible to drop off to around $6, where that price is 61.8% of the Bearish Golden Ratio. The Tankers will stay longer or might be back again if the Natural Gas price doesn't show will higher from now.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by RyodaBrainless
1
Nov 7,22-NG Winner Again-1000 pt profitWhat a beautiful open last night for NG - It had a massive Gap Up where in my last post to you I said I was looking for another 700 pt profit closing at 6.7. Because of the Gap Up I was able to close my Buy Order at 7. Buy at 6 and close at 7 is a 1000 point profit - NICE :-) Last up is my first Buy Order from about a month ago at 7. I'm looking again for a 700 pt profit, but depending what price action is looking like I might close it out at 7.5, we shall see. Anyway, 3 for 3 on some decent profits over the last few weeks - congrats to all who have been following my trades. Stay safe and take care. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
2
XNGUSD - NGAS NEXT WEEK MOVEGas this week had a strong bullish movement, and I expect it to complete this movement next week, with a correction that may target 6.40 levels, from which it may launch towards 7.0 levels.The gas has been in an ascending channel for 11 days, but will it breach it and rise towards the 7.0 levels? We wait next week to see what it has in store. 🔥💥 Like, Shared and subscription 💥🔥 Note: If you are a beginner trader, you should be aware of these rules: 1: Do not covet 2: Don't trade too much 3: Secure your positions after entering the profit 4: Enter contracts that fit your portfolio 5: Adhere to all recommendations
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by zaidhatem
NGAS: Will Demand for Natural Gas Increase With Climate Change?Natural Gas's all-time price action/chart suggest that it is due for a sizeable, generational bull run, to start within the next 3 years. One could blame it on war or climate change or politics but I am not smart enough to determine which may be the actual cause, if any. I can instead deduct from NGAS' wavemap that we are unlikely to enjoy the low prices we've seen during the early 90s or at late as Spring 2020. I've never looked at an inflation chart or have been able to determine what's next for us in that regard but I think this commodity alone can give us some decent expectations. What happens if/when it costs 20x more to keep your home cool in the summer (or warm in the winter)? With an extended diagonal wave in primary Wave 1 of NGAS, we can expect that primary Wave 3 will be likely extended beyond the 1.618 level. We cannot say that this will occur for sure but it is as likely as it ever is. After finding possible support below $5 in 2024, this commodity could make citizens want to hit the rewind button irl. By 2037-2040, Natural Gas could and should be more than the price of Oil. At this point and time, I genuinely believe that NGAS will go 40X within the next 15 years. This is indication that I've found through continued analysis of price action. I have no reason to doubt this perspective but am well aware that it could be invalidated upon any given day. For continued analysis of this worldwide commodity and help with taking advantage of a possibly upcoming generational swings, come surf with me and the Digital Surf Trading Community.
NLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
2
Norwegian pennystock Flex LNG (Natural gas transportation)Table of contents: § 1 About FLNG § 2 The market § 3 Why I am bullish § 4 The risks § 1 Flex LNG(FLNG) is a Norwegian company. They specialize in transporting liquid natural gas around the world for heat, cooking etc. They also create ships themselves, specially created within the CE regulations to ensure safe transport, as natural gas is highly flammable and explosive (who would have figured that one out...) Now, FLNG has done something that might be incredibly smart or it might be incredibly stupid depending on which way things goes: Most companies transporting gas and oil get a fixed rate on the transport, however FLNG has made it so they get paid based on the spot price of natural gas (futures are called NG1! if you want to see the price) This means if the price of natural gas goes up, so does their revenues, which also creates an interesting scenario for us as I will explain in more details in § 3. § 2 FLNG's market is mostly based in China and India (~2 billion people) which in latest years have used a lot of coal for heating, the problem with burning coal is that it's very harmful to the environment, it releases a lot of CO2 and last but not least it releases microscopic particles in the air increasing cases of astma and COPD (Chronic Obstructing Pulmonary Disease) which I don't have to tell you - is reall bad. Now both China and India needs to move over to a more environmental friendly source of energy and heat, this is where natural gas comes in. When you burn natural gas, you only get CO2 and water as a biproduct, which is still bad for global warming, but does not increase cases of COPD or astma. § 3 I am bullish when it comes to FLNG as I believe it will be ranging a lot based on time of year, as we can see when it comes to natural gas spot prices, this can make it a lot easier to predict price movements, as price has historically been highest in the winter (because it's cold and people need more heating, again, who would have figured...), and lower in the summer as very few people need heat in the summer. I also think that because the market is so huge with at least 2 billion people I think there is a LOT of room for expansion. § 4 Although I believe this is an up and coming industry that will be huge the coming years, there is no guarantee that FLNG will be the leaders in the market, but seeing as Norway historically have been one of the leading ship builders and also leading within oil technology I strongly believe flex have a high potential. However, if it does not reach a 50-100% increase within February, it will likely not happen this year as spot prices will be on their way down again. Another risk is market turbulence which might hurt FLNGs price. To end it off with a little bit of my techincal analysis: Price bounced from the 80NOK mark (~$10) where it has not been since it's true pennystock days where liquidity was scarce. Price was trending downwards after the winter just like NG prices have too. I believe the 80NOK level will hold because a lot of bigger institutions bought in at 120NOK and I believe they will either look to average down around the 80NOK mark to get their average to 100NOK to lower their overall downside. And as we are smarter than the institutions (not really) I came up with an idea on how to spot more accurately when price is likely to explode (thank me later): Look at weather forcast for the most populated areas in China and India, when temperatures start dropping it's probably time to buy either FLEX or NG futures. Thank you all for reading and have a great rest of your day.
OSL:FLNGLong
by DonBboy
1
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Technical Outlook 💨 A lot of questions about Natural Gas. Here is my detailed technical outlook. 2 weeks ago, the market reached a key daily structure support and nicely bounced from that. Zooming in the chart and analyzing a price action, we may spot an ascending triangle formation - a classic bullish accumulation pattern. The price sets higher lows, respecting 6.2 - 6.6 horizontal resistance. I believe that the next bullish move will initiate after a bullish breakout of the underlined structure (we need a daily candle close above that to confirm the breakout). A bullish continuation will be expected to 7.076 then. Alternatively, a bearish breakout of a trend line may push the market to a current low. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
NLong
by VasilyTrader
9