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Natural Gas

NATURAL GAS: Channel Down bottomed and is rebounding to 4.800Natural Gas is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.119, MACD = -0.072, ADX = 39.523) as the bearish wave of the long term Channel Up found support on its bottom and the 1D MA100 and is rebounding. It hasn't yet crossed over the 1D MA50 but when it does the bullish signal will be validated. On any occassion, last time the 1D RSI rebounded near this level, it was on the October 18th and August 27th 2024 lows. Both later rebounded by at least +60.48%. We aim for a similar target (TP = 4.800). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by InvestingScope
XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📉 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A Bear trade can be initiated at any price level. however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4h period, the recent / nearest high level Goal 🎯: 2.950 (or) Before escape in the market Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook: The XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors. Based on current market conditions, the XNG/USD Natural Gas market is expected to move in a Bearish direction. 🔆Fundamental Factors: -Supply and Demand Balance: The natural gas market is expected to move into a supply surplus, driven by increasing production and decreasing demand. -US Natural Gas Production: US natural gas production is expected to increase, putting downward pressure on prices. -LNG Export Capacity: Increasing LNG export capacity from the US is expected to put downward pressure on natural gas prices. 🔆Macroeconomic Factors: -Mild Winter Weather: Warmer-than-expected winter weather in the US is expected to decrease demand for natural gas, putting downward pressure on prices. -Global Economic Slowdown: Slowing global economic growth, particularly in China, is expected to decrease demand for natural gas. -US Dollar Strength: A stronger US dollar is expected to put downward pressure on natural gas prices, making them more expensive in international markets. 🔆Trader/Market Sentimental Analysis: -Trader Sentiment: The CoT report shows that speculative traders are net short natural gas, indicating a bearish sentiment. -Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is bearish, with many analysts expecting natural gas prices to decline due to the supply and demand balance. -Technical Analysis: The technical analysis shows that natural gas is in a downtrend, with a bearish breakdown below the $3.00 level. 🔆Sentimental Outlook: Bearish Sentiment: 65% Bullish Sentiment: 20% Neutral Sentiment: 15% 🔆Overall, the bearish outlook is driven by a combination of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, with a 60% chance of a bearish move, 20% chance of a bullish move, and 20% chance of a neutral move. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 🚨Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 🚨Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
FXOPEN:XNGUSDShort
by The-Thief
14
XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The loot's within reach! Wait for the breakout, then grab your share - whether you're a Bullish thief or a Bearish bandit!" Buy entry above 3.500 Sell Entry below 3.000 Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 1H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks. Target 🎯: -Bullish Robbers TP 4.000 (or) Escape Before the Target -Bearish Robbers TP 2.600 (or) Escape Before the Target 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: The XNG/USD "Natural Gas" Energy Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 🔆 Fundamental Factors - Supply and Demand Imbalance: The global demand for natural gas is outpacing supply, leading to a surge in prices. - Weather Patterns: Colder-than-expected winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere is driving up demand for heating fuels, including natural gas. 🔆 Macroeconomic Factors - Global Economic Trends: The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, but the energy sector remains resilient due to strong demand for natural gas. - Inflation Rates: Rising inflation rates are driving up the cost of living, but the impact on the XNG/USD pair is currently neutral. 🔆 COT Report - Speculative Positions: Speculative traders are net long on the XNG/USD pair, indicating a bullish sentiment. - Commercial Traders: Commercial traders are net short on the pair, indicating a bearish sentiment. 🔆 Market Sentiment and Positioning - Client Sentiment: 60% of client accounts are long on this market, indicating a bullish sentiment. - Market Positioning: The XNG/USD pair is currently overbought, with a possibility of a price correction. 🔆 Conclusion: The sentimental outlook for XNG/USD is mixed, with varying degrees of bullishness and bearishness among institutional investors, large banks, investment companies, and retail traders. While some market participants are optimistic about natural gas prices due to rising demand and supply constraints, others are cautious due to mild winter weather and increased production. 🔆 Prediction and Overall Outlook - Based on the analysis, the XNG/USD pair is expected to move in a bullish trend, with a 65% probability of reaching $4.50 in the short term. However, there is a 35% chance of a price correction to $3.80 due to overbought conditions. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
FPMARKETS:XNGUSD
by The-Thief
4
Natural Gas ( XNGUSD ) Buy Opportunity Current Price: $3.267 Setup: Natural Gas is bouncing off a strong demand zone and respecting the ascending trendline support, indicating potential for a bullish move. The RSI is turning upwards, suggesting momentum in favor of buyers. Entry: $3.267 Stop Loss: $3.15 (below demand zone and trendline support for safety) Take Profits: TP1: $3.36 TP2: $3.55 TP3: $3.98 Why Buy? Price is rebounding from a solid demand zone. Clear respect for the trendline, confirming bullish sentiment. Rising RSI signals growing momentum for a move higher. Up to 7,200 USD profit per lot! $1,100 Risk per lot ! 🎯 Plan your trade and manage your risk! Let’s make some great trades together! 💹
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by FinanceProSignals
XNG/USD Analysis: Bears Pressure Key SupportXNG/USD Analysis: Bears Pressure Key Support On 5 December, while analysing the natural gas chart, we noted that price movements: → were forming an ascending channel (shown in blue); → support from the lower boundary of the channel (reinforced by the psychological level of 3.000) was already evident in a nascent price reversal (indicated by an arrow). As the XNG/USD chart illustrates, since that time (marked by a blue arrow), the price indeed rose, using the support from the lower boundary of the channel to reach its upper boundary on 30 December. However, we now see supply forces displaying aggression – whenever the natural gas price climbs above 3.700, bears quickly intervene (marked by red arrows), pushing the price back down. What could happen next? From a technical analysis perspective of the XNG/USD chart: → The price is hovering near the key support, formed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel (which has been in place since last summer). → Bearish aggression, as mentioned above, sets the stage for a potential bearish breakout of this critical support, evidenced by the bearish gap at Monday’s market open. From a fundamental analysis standpoint: → Meteorological reports of colder weather drove the price up to 3.570, but this appears to be a temporary rebound. → Bearish sentiment in the natural gas market may be amplified by statements from the Trump administration expressing a determination to lower oil prices. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSD
by FXOpen
2
KOLD: Potential Reversal Play Near Demand ZoneInstrument: ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) Timeframe: 4H Heikin Ashi The ETF has been in a downtrend, characterized by a descending trend line connecting the lower highs. Recent price action suggests an early breakout above the descending trend line, signaling a potential shift in momentum. Stochastic RSI also shows oversold conditions with a bullish crossover forming, indicating momentum may favor an upward move. Sector Rotation: Recent trends suggest the energy sector is undergoing a sector rotation as market participants focus on cyclical and value stocks, especially in commodities like natural gas. This aligns with a potential upside for KOLD in the short term. Trump Policy Influence: With renewed attention on energy policies influenced by Trump's stance on energy independence and deregulation, investor sentiment in the energy sector is expected to shift. This policy backdrop could provide additional momentum for a bullish move. Entry: ~ $33.72 Stop Loss: Below $26.70 (demand zone distal line). Targets: $34.01 (short-term target, RRR ~2:1). $42.79 (mid-term target, RRR ~4:1). $48.68 (long-term target, RRR ~6:1). Position size: Risk no more than 1–2% of account balance per trade. Supply Zones: Supply Zones identified at $42.79, $48.68, and $63.22, providing potential take-profit areas for bullish trades. A major resistance at $78.83, marking the upper boundary for a long-term bullish trend. Demand Zone: Significant Demand Zone in the $26.73–$27.78 range, a critical area for potential price reversal . Disclaimer: This idea is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. You are solely responsible for your actions and decisions.
AMEX:KOLDLong
by MESHANL
Natural Gas on the Move! Is the Next Big Breakout Coming? 📈 Bullish Analysis: Natural Gas (Spot) 1️⃣ Uptrend Support Holding Firm: The price is respecting the uptrend support line, which has acted as a strong foundation for bullish momentum. Multiple bounces off this level signal that buyers are stepping in to defend the trend. 2️⃣ Supply Zone in Focus: The supply zone between 4.4 and 4.48 represents a key resistance area. A break and close above this zone would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. 3️⃣ RSI Rebound: The RSI is bouncing off oversold levels and turning upward, indicating renewed bullish momentum. This aligns with the trendline support, suggesting the potential for further upside. 4️⃣ Key Insights: Natural Gas has formed a clean technical setup, with the trendline support, supply zone, and RSI alignment all pointing toward a bullish reversal. If the price holds above 3.88 and momentum continues, buyers could push toward the supply zone targets. 🎯 Strategy: Entry: Current levels near 3.88–3.92. TP1: 4.00 (First Resistance) TP2: 4.18 (Midpoint). TP3: 4.40 (Beginning of Supply Zone).
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by FinanceProSignals
2
Natural Gas Bullish OpportunityWhy the Bullish Sentiment? 🌬 Cold Weather Incoming: Frigid forecasts are set to spike heating demand, boosting natural gas consumption. 🌍 Global LNG Demand: International markets, particularly Europe and Asia, are tightening the supply, fueling upward pressure. 📉 Lower Storage Levels: US inventories are running below the 5-year average, creating a potential supply crunch. ⚠️ Geopolitical Tensions: Supply concerns in Europe continue to drive bullish sentiment, making natural gas an attractive play. With all these factors aligning, the stage is set for a potential rally! 📈 Entry: 3.40 USD. Take Profit Levels: 🎯 Take Profit 1: 3.49 USD 🎯 Take Profit 2: 3.61 USD 🏆 Take Profit 3: 3.81 USD Stop Loss: Set your safety net at 3.25 USD, just below the support level. 🛡 Where do you think Natural Gas will go?
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by FinanceProSignals
3
Natural Gas Futures (4H) - ABCD Pattern Analysis and PRZ Levels"In this analysis of Natural Gas Futures (4H timeframe), we identify a bullish ABCD pattern that projects a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) around 394.5-395. Key highlights include: ABCD Pattern: The 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the BC leg aligns with the PRZ. Current Price Action: Natural Gas is trading around 368.6, indicating a strong upward momentum. Key Levels: Resistance at 394.5 (PRZ zone). Support levels marked at 365.2, 364.3, and 361.5. Strategy Insight: Traders may look for potential shorting opportunities at the PRZ (394.5) with confirmations. Alternatively, breakouts above 394.5 could indicate further bullish movement toward 400+ levels. This setup is ideal for monitoring reversal or continuation scenarios. Keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators for better confirmation."
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by maniraja5599
NATURAL GAS Long-term buy on the next pull-back.Natural Gas (NG1!) broke this month above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in two years (last January 2023). Naturally this is a very bullish signal for the long-term and it is more effectively put into context by using our infamous 'Multi-year Cycles', which we introduced on Natural Gas a few years back. As you can see, every time NG broke above the 1W MA200 after a Support Zone rebound since 1990, it pulled back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) before resuming the uptrend for a new High. As a result, we will wait for that right pull-back opportunity to buy and target at least 6.000, which should be achieved by December 2026, which is the Top of the Sine Waves Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
1
Gas panic in Europe: reserves depleting at record paceEurope is facing unprecedented depletion of gas reserves due to cold weather and technical challenges. According to EU gas storage data, storage levels have fallen to 70%, significantly lower than last year’s 86%. Analysts note that this situation is unique in the last seven years. Adding to the strain, Norway’s Hammerfest plant, which supplies liquefied natural gas (LNG), has halted operations due to compressor issues. This suspension intensifies pressure on the gas market, especially in light of the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. The European gas market is set for potential price increases in the coming months. Current storage challenges and reduced supply volumes heighten the likelihood of price hikes, particularly if the cold weather persists. Additionally, the reduction in Russian gas supplies forces the EU to compete more aggressively for LNG on the global market. Advantages of investing in #GAS in 2025: Rising energy demand: Increased gas consumption during the winter and limited supply create conditions for sustained price growth. Investing in #GAS could yield high returns during the current energy crisis. Global LNG competition: Europe and Asia are actively competing for access to LNG. This boosts market liquidity and enhances its appeal to traders and investors. Inflation hedge: Energy resources, including gas, are a traditional way to protect investments from inflation risks. Transition to LNG: As part of supply diversification, Europe is increasing the share of LNG in its energy mix, supporting demand for gas futures. High volatility: Significant price fluctuations present possibilities for short-term profits, particularly amidst geopolitical instability and weather anomalies. Analysts at FreshForex believe that 2025 is the ideal time to invest in #GAS! Limited reserves, high demand, and volatility create perfect conditions for substantial profits. Don’t miss the chance to capitalize on the year’s leading energy resource!
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart. Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside. Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels. Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out. There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring. Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea. Disclosure I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys Thanks for reading! Not Financial Advice
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ZachSap
Natural Gas - Supply and DemandAs previously iterated in my writings on crude oil NYMEX:CL1! here and here , my opinion is that conditions favor a bull market in energy products. Crude Oil has gained a few points since the time of publishing, and Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! appears poised to follow suit. As seen below, most energy markets ( NYMEX:CL1! , NYMEX:NG1! , ICEEUR:BRN1! , NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX:MBA1! ) have rallied in the last year. The most active, and volatile of the energy products shown in the above chart is Natural Gas $NYMEX:NG1!. There are many reasons it may have rallied since the 2nd quarter of 2020, such as an energy crisis in Texas, and war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Increasing up to 500% at one point in the last 5 years, though the price has backed off we still observe the market making new highs. There are some very serious considerations in oil and gas, which do not appear to have been of any consideration. Just yesterday, US president Joe Biden elected to place a ban on all future leases on offshore drilling operations. Though he has cited a transition to clean energy as a suitable alternative, there is not much reason for markets to believe him. As mentioned, back in 2021 an unexpected cold snap in Texas led to panic in domestic energy markets as generators and suppliers were unable to meet demand. According to statistics published domestically all around the world including the USA, it is indicated that inflation has subsided as central banks lower rates. Yet as we can see, Natural Gas in the US in particular has continued to rally, and what's more the futures curve indicates market participants expect the price to continue to rise into 2027. This is in spite of the increasing strength of the US Dollar TVC:DXY , which may weigh against the price of Natural Gas. www.bruegel.org In Europe, the situation surrounding the availability of energy products may be even more alarming. Ukraine has elected to not negotiate terms for an extension of a natural gas contract with Russia. There are many pipelines from Russia which supply much of Europe with natural gas, both offshore and through Ukraine. Much of which will have passed through Ukraine and Belarus, since the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines. As such much of Europe's energy in the last couple years has been Suppled by the USA, though a significant sum from Russia has continued to be supplied through Ukraine. Considering that the US has just made the decision to reduce it's future supply of natural gas, it seems unlikely that it will be able to supply Europe at the same price. In terms of future uncertainty, we can also look at Canada. A major supplier of energy products globally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to step down, though an election is not slated until October. With Donald Trump taking office in just 13 days, and threatening tariffs, we might anticipate the lack of clear governance over continental trade will have a negative impact on the stability of natural gas markets. In face of volatility and a decreased future demand, North-American as well as European energy markets seem poised to take a strong bullish stance. Besides pipelines, a great deal of import/export in natural gas is done in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). Due to violence in the Red Sea, carriers of LNG in particular have opted to take the longer route around the horn of Africa. The politics surrounding commercial maritime shipping have become very complicated in the last year, between terrorist attacks, union strikes, blocked shipping lanes and an (allegedly) poor prognosis for the Panama Canal. Which is to express, without bearing too heavy on details of the politics of maritime law, that the future has become uncertain. Since 2022 interest rates have been rising, and as such commercial shipping insurance rates have been rising, war clauses notwithstanding. Since insurance companies are at liberty to play politics, it should leave no doubt in a speculators' mind that they will. Already lobbying efforts have begun to remove EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, for the effect they have had on oceanic insurance. This issue is further discussed in my first post on crude oil. See below the price of Natural gas in the UK over the last year. Natural gas consumption worldwide has been on the rise for the past several decades, as it is sought after as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude oil derivatives. It must be considered that beyond supplying energy to the public, this commodity plays an important role in industrial processes and manufacturing. The effect of a reduced supply encompasses a gross majority of the global economy. In fact it is so obvious that the price will rise, the only bear argument I can surmise might be a global conspiracy against energy and the trading of energy products, thus rendering their useless and of little worth. Given the sweeping measures imposed by Biden just 14 days before the end of his presidency, traders should beware of capital controls imposed on these markets. While I am wholly bullish on this market, on every basis from technical to fundamental, it is a SERIOUS risk that trading in these markets will be prohibited through political measures. Sovereign debt is mounting, and inflation threatens to critically exacerbate the issue of interest rates. That being said, markets are markets. Thanks for reading. "It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so" -Mark Twain
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by FPS_Denny
Will Europe's Gas Gambit Reshape the Global Energy Landscape?In a bold move reverberating across global energy markets, Ukraine's decision to halt Russian gas transit on New Year's Day 2025 has ushered in a new era of energy geopolitics. This watershed moment not only challenges decades-old supply patterns but also tests Europe's resilience and strategic foresight in securing its energy future. The immediate market response, with gas prices surging to levels unseen since late 2023, underscores the significance of this pivotal shift. Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Norway's Troll field has emerged as a beacon of hope, setting unprecedented production records and demonstrating Europe's capacity for strategic adaptation. With production reaching 42.5 billion standard cubic meters in 2024, this achievement showcases how technological innovation and operational excellence can help reshape traditional energy dependencies. Meanwhile, BMI's forecast of a 40% price increase for 2025 signals the complex interplay between supply disruptions, growing demand, and market expectations. The transformation of Europe's energy landscape extends beyond mere supply chain reorganization. While countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova face immediate challenges in securing alternative gas sources, the broader European response highlights a remarkable shift in energy security strategy. With storage facilities maintaining robust levels and infrastructure upgrades underway, Europe's energy transition demonstrates how geopolitical challenges can catalyze innovation and strategic resilience in the global energy sector.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by UDIS_View
Nat Gas: Trading the WeatherNYMEX: Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ) On December 31, 2024, the lead contract of NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas futures closed at $3.6330 per MMBtu. This marked a strong gain of 44.5% year-over-year, making it the best performing active futures contract for the year. Nat Gas is one of the most actively traded commodities. According to CME Group: • Henry Hub booked record trading volume in 2024. Average daily volumes for futures and options were 566,000 and 242,000 contracts, respectively. • As of last Friday, Open Interests were 1,511,978 for futures and 775,176 for options. The Basic Natural gas is a leading energy source for global economy. While clean energy generates a lot of buzz these days, natural gas still carries the biggest load in power generation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. electricity production at 4.18 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023. • About 43.1% of the electricity was generated by natural gas. • Nuclear power contributed to 18.6%, while coal had a 16.2% share. • Combined, Renewables accounted for a 21.4% share, including 10.2% from Wind, 5.7% from Hydro, and 3.9% from Solar. The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. In the case of electricity, it is hard to store while its demand is highly unpredictable. New storage technology is limited by capacity and high cost. With Nat Gas being the biggest energy source, unforeseen changes in power demand could send shock waves into the market. Weather factors, in particular temperature, have the biggest impact in power demand. • In the summer months, the biggest power usage is for air conditioning cooling. Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is above 68 degrees Fahrenheit. • In the winter months, the biggest power usage is for heating home and offices. Heating Degree Day (HDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is below 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Energy traders deploy CDD/HDD analysis and weather forecast models to predict temperature trends, electricity demand and the subsequent natural gas use. The Weather Shocks On December 29, 2024, the Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released a weather forecast for January showing colder than average temperature in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes. In a separate report, AccuWeather meteorologists said that the colder air could trigger a winter storm with substantial snow and ice for a significant portion of the month’s first half. They added that the drop will begin in the middle and latter part of next week. When the futures market opened the next day, the price of Henry Hub futures surged 20%, hitting a new 52-week high of $4.20. Earlier in the winter, Germany experienced the so-called “Dunkelflaute” with no wind and a clouded sky. This is the worst scenario for wind and solar power. As Germany is heavily reliant on renewable energy, when the weather fails to cooperate, its power supply drops by half, sending electricity prices sky high. The huge supply gap prompted energy companies to turn on gas-fueled backup power plants, pushing the Dutch TTF ( NYMEX:TTF1! ) natural gas contracts to a record high. At the time of this writing, severe winter storms are sweeping across the Central Plains in the U.S., bringing heavy snow, sleet, and frozen rain from Kansas to Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Washington, D.C. Apart from the winter hazards, I expect higher power consumption to keep people warm from the below-average temperatures. Trading with Micro Henry Hub Futures Micro Henry Hub natural gas futures (MNG) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s liquid benchmark Henry Hub futures (NG) contracts. The Micro futures have a contract size of 1,000 MMBtu, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. The Micro contracts allow traders to control a large contract value with a small amount of capital. With Friday settlement price of $3.354, each February contract (MNGG5) has a notional value of $3,354. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $366. Since its Monday high, Henry Hub prices have plunged 20%. Subsequent updated weather forecasts now predicted warmer trends for the Eastern US, which could curb heating demand for Nat Gas. Losses accelerated last Friday after the EIA reported that Nat Gas inventories for the week of December 27th fell -116 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -128 bcf. In my opinion, the draw was lower due to the reduced economic activity around the Christmas holiday. For the same token, we could see a smaller draw during the New Year. However, I consider this data seasonal outliners, rather than a longer-term trend. Global warming doesn’t necessarily mean warmer winters. Higher global temperature brings moisture from the ocean, with wetter atmosphere generating more extreme weather events. I expect winter temperature patterns to shift to much colder-than-normal, with cool anomalies poised to stick around key population centers deep into the winter. As we have seen in the past, unpredictable weather events could send large shocks to natural gas prices. With Micro Henry Hub contracts, traders could potentially realize sizable gains with a small capital requirement. Hypothetically, if the February prices move up 10% to $3.689 with lower temperature forecasts, the $0.3354 price gain would translate into $335.4 for a long futures position, given the contract size at 1,000 MMBtu. Using the initial margin of $366 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 99.6% (=335.4/366). The long futures position would lose money if Nat Gas prices continued to trend lower. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
NATGAS // Can you imagine $1?This weekly candle looks bearish. It's even more bearish if we take into account that it was printed on the monthly impulse base. It means that the monthly trend is still short, and if the weekly gets aligned, the price may target the last clean weekly breakout (red), where the countertrend line also breaks, and where the $1 for natural becomes a nice target. Do you see it coming? ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. Level colors: Daily - blue Weekly - purple Monthly - magenta H4 - aqua Long trigger - green Short trigger - red ——— Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ <<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by TheMarketFlow
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