NAS100 (CASH100) SHORT - head and shoulders 30minRisk/reward = 3.9
Entry price = 23 137.9
Stop loss price = 23 153.9
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 23 071
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 23 060
Still need to validate a few variables.
Lets goooooo
Ndxsignals
NAS100 (CASH100) SHORT - Double Top H8Risk/reward = 4.6
Entry price = 23 063
Stop loss price = 23 190
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 22 635
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 22 303
Still waiting for confirmation on some variables.
For example, need H8 candle to close in range and volume to validate, amongst other variables.
NASDAQ Will the 4H MA100 come to the rescue?Nasdaq (NDX) is trading within a 3-week Channel Up, which is currently supported by the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). In fact, the price is being squeezed in the last three 4H candles within the 4H MA100 and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
This tight compression technically tends to cause violent break-outs either way. As long as the Channel Up holds, we expect that to be upwards and it should be confirmed by the formation of a 4H MACD Bullish Cross.
With the last two major rallies being around +9.50%, we expect to see 22500 on the next Leg Up.
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NASDAQ ahead of the most critical Resistance test.Nasdaq (NDX) not only broke above the Lower Highs trend-line of its All Time High (ATH) last week but managed to break and turn the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) into Support.
It is now aiming for the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is the most crucial Resistance level of this recovery attempt and is what technically turns bearish trends into bullish if it turns into Support.
We expect a short-term rejection there, which should give a buy opportunity near the 4H MA200. Our Target for this is 20350 (Resistance 1).
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NASDAQ The recovery has officially started.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up and with today's opening, it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line of February's Bearish Leg. Even though the confirmed bullish reversal signal technically comes above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we already have the early bottom signals.
First and foremost, the 1D RSI rebounding from the same oversold (<30.00) level where all major Higher Lows of the Channel Up did (August 05 2024, April 19 2024, October 26 2023). Every time the price reached its -0.5 Fibonacci extensions following such bottoms. Also each Bullish Leg tends so far to be smaller than the previous.
As a result, targeting a +24% rise (-3% less than the previous Bullish Leg) at 23500 is a very realistic Target technically, as it is considerably below the -0.5 Fibonacci extension.
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NASDAQ hit its 1D MA200. Strongest buy signal in 2 years!Nasdaq (NDX) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 7 months (since the August 05 2024 Low) with its 1D RSI almost oversold (below 30.00). In the past 2 years (since the March 10 2023 test), the 1D MA200 has been tested another 3 times, all of which have been the absolute technical buy entries, kick-starting enormous rallies.
On top of that, the price is close to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up that started on the December 2022 market bottom. Every rally that followed after a 1D MA200 test has been marginally weaker than the previous but all three have been around +30% on average. The last one has been +27.61%, which is -3% weaker than the previous.
As a result, we are expecting a new rally to start now as all buy conditions within a 2-year span have been met (1D MA200, oversold 1D RSI) that can target 24500, which represents a +24.00% rally (-3% shorter rise than the previous).
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NASDAQ 1D MA100 held. Strong rally ahead.Last week we took a look at Nasdaq's (NDX) Triangle and the buy signal that emerged on the short-term Support Zone (see chart below):
The signal turned out to be successful and the price eventually hit our 21800 Target and got rejected again on the Lower Highs trend-line.
Today an even stronger buy signal emerged, this time on a long term horizon as not only did the price touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the August 2024 Channel Up but also hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This is the 3rd test of this level in 2 weeks and the 3rd hold. Technically this is a Triple Bottom formation and one of the strongest buy signals. Two times already within this Channel Up we have seen Bullish Legs of +15.70%. As a result we can technically target 23700.
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NASDAQ Triple buy signal.Nasdaq (NDX) is having a very aggressive correction early into the week, mostly due to Chinese start-up DeepSeek. Fundamentals aside, this move has taken the index back to its 1-month Support Zone, which has given an excellent buy entry 3 times already.
At the same time, it has come the closest to the Higher Lows trend-line that has been in effect since October 01 2024, while the 4H RSI entered its oversold (<30.00) Support Zone, which in the past 3 months has offered the 5 most optimal buy opportunities.
This is in our opinion a Triple Buy Signal on the short-term, which should test at least the Lower Highs trend-line at 21800, before patterns on the wider, longer term time-frames take over.
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NASDAQ Major Lower Highs break-out just took place!Nasdaq (NDX) broke on Friday above the Lower Highs trend-line that started more than a month ago on the December 16 2024 High that initiated the recent correction. This has technically been a Bearish Leg within the +2 year Channel Up and every time such a structure broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, a strong rally followed.
At the same time, the 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 neutral level and out of the 9 previous time this took place, it only failed to produce an immediate rally 2 times.
We technically see that the current Bullish Leg that started on the August 05 2024 Low, isn't over yet, so we still expect it to complete a +47% to +48% rise before a stronger correction. As a result, our Target is 25000.
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NASDAQ rally still has lots of upside before is tops.Nasdaq (NDX) is technically respecting the 2-year Channel Up that it's been trading in since the December 26 2022 market bottom. Its most recent Higher Low was on the August 05 2024 1W candle, which initiated the Bullish Leg we're currently in.
As you see, the previous two Bullish Legs had one main pull-back/ correction sequence each and apart from that, the majority of the Leg was technically a straight uptrend. Given that the current Bullish Leg already had a strong pull-back early on (August 26 - September 02 1W candles), it may continue to rise up to its target without another correction, assuming the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) holds.
If however it has another pull-back similar to the previous Bullish Leg (March 04 - April 15 2024), then it should rise some more near the 0.236 Fibonacci level and then pull-back.
In any event, the current level is technically a solid long-term buy entry and since both previous Bullish Legs have been around +48%, we expect to see 25300 before the current one tops.
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NASDAQ Santa rally is starting.Nasdaq (NDX) has been following the blueprint of the 2020/21 Bull Cycle to high precision so far, as we showed on our analysis almost 4 months ago (August 19, see chart below):
As you can see it is already marching towards Target 1 (23250) on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, well inside the Channel Up. We expect that to get hit by the final week of December, which can be translated as the infamous 'Santa rally', a frequent seasonal price increase at the end of the year.
As mentioned, this Channel Up displays strong similarities with the patterns of August 2020 - November 2021 and before the COVID crash of December 2019 - February 2020. All those Channel Up patterns are within the dominant long-term structure of the 6-year Bullish Megaphone.
The key here is for the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to hold and continue to offer support, as within those 6 years the only two times it broke were during the corrections of the 2022 Inflation Crisis and the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
As long as it holds, the current Channel Up should, besides the immediate Target 1 (23250), complete the sequence and peak towards the end of 2025 as close to a +185% rise (from the October 2022 bottom) as possible. This is why our long-term strategic Target (2) is a little lower at 27000.
As a side-note, see how well the 1W RSI held and bounced in September on the Symmetrical Support Zone, in similar fashion as 2020 - 2021. Also the 1W MACD displays a similar pattern between the two fractals.
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NASDAQ looking to hold the 4H MA50 in order to sustain the rallyNasdaq (NDX) broke on Friday above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today is looking to re-test it as a Support. The medium-term pattern has been a Channel Up since the September 06 Low and every time the 4H MA50 broke following a bottom, it held and sustained the Bullish Leg until the top.
It appears that the most common rally % within this pattern is +6.80%. As a result, assuming the 4H MA50 holds, our Target is 21650.
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NASDAQ rally still at its start. Very high upside post electionsExactly 3 months ago (August 05, see chart below) when Nasdaq (NDX) erased the gains of 3 months and was sold-off to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) we posted the following idea using the 2-year Fibonacci Channel Up on the index, claiming that it was the best buy entry in recent months:
The buy turned out to be very effective as the index rebounded aggressively and last week made a 3-month High. Ahead of the U.S. elections today and the natural short-term volatility that they will inflict on the market, we decided to bring that chart forward again, as it will help keep an unbiased long-term perspective that will filter out the short-term noise.
As you can see the index held its 1D MA50 (red trend-line) last week despite the sharp pull-back. The price remained within the 0.382 - 0.5 Zone of the Fibonacci Channel, while the 1W RSI is holding its MA (yellow trend-line). Every time the index got in a similar situation within this Channel Up, it still had much upside left before it topped.
At the same time, we are just below the 0.5 Fib level of a projected +47% rise from the August bottom (sequence of Bullish Legs since the start +49%, then +48%, next +47%), a symmetric pattern showing the strong potential of the index, as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds.
For the 1st Stage of the current Bullish Leg, we have a minimum Target of 22500 for the end of the year, which represents the rally that the May 27 2024 and January 01 2024 pull-back rebounds had that held the 1D MA50. As for the full length of the Bullish Leg, which is our long-term Target, we still expect the index to complete a +47% and reach 25400.
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NASDAQ Analysis scenarios ideaWe can see 2 Gaps in the Nasdaq, with USA Elections ahead i expect volatility.
I think we will close the 19800 gap first, then 19600 for then going up.
It depends a lot in the USA elections results
Always do your research
Nasdaq GAP We can see a Nasdaq GAP could we see it close in the next hours? USA elections starting soon, let's see how market react
Always do your research
NASDAQ100 Plummets! Short Trade Nears Final Target!NASDAQ100 (NDX) Analysis:
NASDAQ100 (NDX) has seen a strong downward trend on the 15-minute chart, with the trade setup delivering impressive results. Targets 1 through 3 have been hit, and the price is closing in on the final TP4 level, making this an ideal short trade for traders leveraging the momentum.
Trade Summary:
Entry Level: 20429.42
Target Levels:
TP1: 20323.94 ✅
TP2: 20153.26 ✅
TP3: 19982.58 ✅
TP4: 19877.10 (nearly hit)
Stop Loss: 20514.76
The Risological Dotted Trendline guided traders perfectly through this short trade, marking a strong resistance level as the index continued its descent.
NASDAQ 100 Sinks on AI Cost Woes - Full Target Breakthrough HIT!NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Analysis using Risological Swing Trader:
In the 15-minute timeframe, NASDAQ 100 (NDX) demonstrated a powerful bearish move, with all targeted profit levels being achieved in a swift drop. This short trade setup showed significant follow-through as investor sentiment shifted negatively due to concerns over escalating AI expenses reported by Wall Street's megacaps.
Key Highlights:
Entry Level: 20,429.42
Target Levels:
TP1: 20,323.94
TP2: 20,153.26
TP3: 19,982.58
TP4: 19,877.10
Stop Loss: 20,514.76
Context:
This bearish momentum aligns with Wall Street’s close on a lower note as major tech giants highlighted rising costs linked to AI developments. The day's range fluctuated between 19,880.26 and 20,227.19, underscoring the volatility and risk aversion among investors. The setup capitalized effectively on this negative sentiment, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Summary:
This trade on NASDAQ 100 hit all targets with precision, benefiting from the broader market's reaction to heightened cost pressures in the tech sector. This downward move underscores the impact of macroeconomic concerns on equity performance, particularly in high-cost sectors like AI.
NASDAQ can explode to 25000 if the 1D MA50 keeps supporting.Nasdaq (NDX) appears to be coming off yet another short-term consolidation (ellipse pattern), the kind of accumulation it is accustomed to while trading within its 2-year Channel Up.
As we have established in previous analyses, the index is on its 3rd Bullish Leg of this pattern following the August 05 bottom (Higher Low) on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). When the same consolidation took place in the previous two Bullish Legs, the index remained supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and went off to complete a rise of +49.50% and +47.80% respectively. The 1D RSI fractals of all those sequences, also display amazing symmetry.
If the rallies are on a decelerating rate, we can expect the next one to hit at least 25000 (+45.50% from the Aug bottom). As you can see, the Higher Highs of the Channel Up tend to form after the Sine Wave tops, while the bottoms are exactly on point.
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NASDAQ Channel Up with more room to rise.Nasdaq (NDX) eventually held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and no significant correction took place, a development that should extend the uptrend within the 2-month Channel Up. Technically we are still on its Bullish Leg.
We have had two rallies so far within this structure the most recent +11.00% and the one before +15.50%. Assuming there is a declining rate on those by -4.50%, we can assume that the current one will peak at +6.50% from the October 01 Low, which is ideal as it gives a 20900 short-term Target exactly at the top of the Channel Up.
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NASDAQ This rally isn't over yet.Three weeks ago (September 09, see chart below) we gave a very timely buy signal on Nasdaq (NDX), just after it touched its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
As you can see, the index started a relentless rally, breaking the August 22 High, and the Lower Highs trend-line in the process. We don't expect that Leg to be over yet. Based on the two previous Bullish Legs of the 2-year Channel Up, they first touched the Inner Higher Highs trend-line and then pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we expect a continuation of the upside with a short-term Target around 21000 and then after mid to end of October, pull-back towards the 1D MA50 going into the U.S. elections.
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NASDAQ gave the best longterm bullish signal. Is 25300 possible?Nasdaq (NDX) confirmed the bounce on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as argued on our previous analysis (September 09) and the rebound made the ultimate bullish break-out last week, as it crossed above the Lower Highs trend-line of the July 11 All Time High (ATH), giving us the most consistent long-term buy signal on a 2-year basis.
As you can see on this chart that goes as back as October 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis Bear Cycle, the two times that Nasdaq broke above such Lower Highs trend-line, while being above the 1D MA200, it gave the best buy signal possible, with both rallies peaking after a +49% and +48% rise respectively.
The Sine Waves have also confirmed early this month that the index bottomed and now we have the ultimate bullish break-out confirmation. The longer the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds the better, but even if it breaks (April 2024), we still expect that we are on a similar Bullish Leg that should top in roughly the same way (+47% i.e. one percent less than the previous).
This gives us a long-term Target of 25300 for March - April 2025. We have plotted the Bullish Legs of 2023 and 2024 and as you can see, even though they diverge at times, they always converge again, forming a rough Channel Up, which can be a representation of our estimate course.
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NASDAQ The index is well supported to hit 25k by mid 2025.Last week (September 09, see chart below), we gave a strong buy signal on Nasdaq (NDX) right as the price was testing the 1D MA200, a strong Support on its 2-year Channel Up:
The index duly delivered and we've completed 5 straight green days already. Not only that but the 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50, practically confirmed the bullish extension into this week.
The current week however isn't just a typical one, as we anticipate the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday and even though the expectations are fixed on at least a 0.25% cut, the volatility is expected to be high.
As a result, to filter out this short-term noise, we will resort today to the wider 1W time-frame, which helps keeping a more accurate long-term perspective. In fact it was the same chart we published 6 months ago (March 18, see chart below), which very accurately laid out the Support that you needed to calmly buy on the long-term, which as you can see, it has been a recurring signal since 2010:
Every time the price broke above a Resistance, it was the ultimate buy entry if re-tested later as a Support. That happened in mid April and that's what happened last week as well.
In fact, the index made a strong rejection on the 1.5 Channel Fibonacci level and then tested and held the 1W MA50, confirming the emergence of a Channel Up (orange) similar to June 2020 - November 2021. The 1W RSI similarities between the two fractals are also further evidence of this.
As a result, we expect Nasdaq to reach as high as 25000 by mid 2025 (a little lower than our previous 6-month estimate but still good enough to be an excellent buy opportunity even now).
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