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Negativecorrelated

Macro Negative Correlation with BitcoinThe US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is negatively correlated with the macro Bitcoin BNC:BLX chart. Indicators like the Correlation Coefficient indicator will display swings from negative to positive correlation between TVC:DXY and $INDEX:BTCUSD. This can lead to a belief that they are not in fact negatively correlated. But, when you zoom out to a macro view of Bitcoin and compare, the dollar index's peaks correspond with Bitcoin's lows, while Bitcoin's peaks correspond with DXY's lows. At times, these corresponding peaks and valleys have occurred near the same dates and times, while at other times DXY has acted as a leading indicator for future movement for Bitcoin. Where will we go next? if DXY returns to its previous high and breaks it, I suspect Bitcoin will move lower on the other hand, should DXY move further down or get stuck within a range, it's likely that Bitcoin will move higher What do you think?
TVC:DXY
by dudebruhwhoa
6
Triple Top for Gold if a Strong Move Back Up from DXYI've posted about this for a while now, DXY is presently negatively corresponded with multiple markets: Gold, Bitcoin, Dow Jones, etc. Should that negative correspondence continue and DXY makes a move back above 105, confirming a failed Head & Shoulders and then heads to 112 -> 118+: - Gold may confirm a bearish triple top and lose nearly half its value. If you zoom out to 3 month chart on DXY, the current Head/Shoulders looks more like a long term falling wedge that has broken out, re-tested the top, continued up and is now re-testing the top of a W pattern breakout. The long-term DXY chart looks incredibly bullish. That said, it could instead drop in the interim and give Gold and other markets a chance to run to new ATHs, first. Let's see what happens.
TVC:DXYShort
by dudebruhwhoa
Meet in the Middle Again?Could the US Dollar Index revisit its all time high, as the Euro again sees its all time low? TVC:DXY broke a long-term falling wedge, re-tested its top and then moved up. FX:EURUSD broke a long-term rising wedge, re-tested its bottom and then moved down. The Euro has risen slightly above the middle of its "M" or double-top pattern. This could be a pullback, or we might see yet another weaker attempt at a re-test of the long-term rising wedge. Meanwhile, DXY is still maintaining above the middle of its "W" or double-bottom and has yet to have shown a pullback below it. The Euro could be an indicator of near-term direction for DXY. Should it continue up for another re-test of its wedge, we may see DXY move further down and do the same with its wedge. On the other hand, if the Euro moves back below the middle of its "M" pattern, DXY may continue on up towards the proposed meet in the middle above.
by dudebruhwhoa
Potential for a Pull-back as it Correlates with DXYIf you've seen my other posts about this - Bitcoin has clear negative correlation with DXY. You could pull up the Correlation Coefficient indicator and make an argument that it correlates positively just as often as it does negatively, but when you compare the charts with each other, nearly every peak corresponds with a valley vs. the other and vice versa. They are typically offset by some period of time if not at the same time. Also, try setting CC length to 35 and it provides a more clear picture of its long-term correlation. Presently, Bitcoin looks like an inverse head and shoulders re-testing its neckline. Meanwhile, DXY looks like a head and shoulders with a pullback that hasn't quite reached the highs of its right shoulder. Also, each shoulder and head of both head and shoulders have eventually corresponded with each other, in opposite directions, and Bitcoin has yet to have made a pullback. However, it may skip the pullback altogether should DXY continue down and move back below ~98-101. Or, DXY could instead move up above ~105-106 leading to pattern failure on both, and a strong uptrend on DXY / strong downtrend on BTC. Let's see what happens next! Please see my related posts below in the links to related ideas. Thanks for reading!
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
3
Gold and the Dollar IndexGold and the Dollar Index have been mirror images of each other over the last year and a half or so. Near perfect negative correlation, with no signs of divergence from this. I'm expecting this will remain true for some time, creating an educated assumption that we can expect a near equal and opposite reaction from each other, and both are at major decision points: Gold is facing strong resistance to moving towards a new ATH and hasn't yet reacted. DXY is also facing resistance towards a stronger move up. One of these will do it, the other will likely not. For more context, confluence, and further details - follow my links below under the "Related Ideas" section.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by dudebruhwhoa
Bitcoin's Negative Correlation with DXY - Part IIHere's a longer-term look at Bitcoin's negative correlation with the US Dollar Index, in looking at an overlay of the monthly DXY on top of Bitcoin. CC also displays significant negative correlation, and during the brief periods where it has been positively correlated, that correlation has been insignificant. At least this has been true over the last two major bull runs/corrections and halving cycles. The two also look like a mirror image of each other, and as mentioned in previous posts - this makes sense. If the dollar is strong, we should expect Bitcoin to weaken, and vice versa. My previous post about this, here: The same is true for Gold vs. DXY, as shown below, and for stock markets as well, most of which have been positively correlated with Bitcoin, especially more recently since the 2020 March black swan event. Here are a couple different looks at this: From the perspective of DXY and its correlation with Bitcoin, Gold, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq. And then a look at Gold vs. DXY: Should DXY move up here, the Bitcoin market and other markets mentioned above may be in for much further and deeper correction. Conversely, should it move down, we could see extended recoveries or even new ATHs as shown in the diagram above. Either way, we should be aware of DXY's movements: Long-term DXY looks incredibly bullish, with breakout, after re-test, after breakout, after re-test: Meanwhile Bitcoin could go in either direction as well, and I would imagine it will go in the opposite direction of DXY here, long term. It could first reach 38k to create a new high following DXY's more recent low, and then head back down towards the lower target at 13k should DXY continue up: Long-term if DXY moves up beyond 112-114 -> 118-120ish, expect blood in the markets.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by dudebruhwhoa
1
Bitcoin's Negative Correlation with US Dollar Index It is already pretty obvious to any analyst - a stronger dollar means a weaker crypto or stock market, and a weaker dollar trends toward stronger crypto and stock markets. As you can see on the chart, Bitcoin (BLX) has a crystal clear negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), as expected. So, why am I talking about it? Each time DXY has peaked, BLX has made a new low, and vice versa. A large majority of these major milestones first occur on DXY, prior to following in the opposite direction with Bitcoin. There is one exception noted above during the March 2020 black swan event, where DXY peaked after Bitcoin and stock markets bottomed. Otherwise, most of these events happen first on DXY, and then markets follow. Presently, DXY has closed its weekly candle above the neckline of a confirmed head & shoulders pattern. Is this just a pullback, or are we headed towards ~105-106 and a failed HS? If you zoom out on DXY's monthly chart, it looks more like a bullish re-test of a breakout, but still possible it moves back down into the 90s: Conclusion: Can we use this assumption again now: that DXY can an early indicator in determining direction of Bitcoin and the crypto/stock markets as a whole?
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
1