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Meanwhile In New Zealand....NZD/USD has failed to sustain the upside above 0.5800. While below 0.6010/0.6060, the downtrend is set to persist, economists at Société Générale report. “NZD/USD recently formed an interim low near the lower limit of a multi-month down sloping channel at 0.5565 which is also a trend line drawn since 2009.” “An initial bounce is taking shape; the 50 DMA near 0.6010/0.6060 which is also the low of July is expected to be an important hurdle near-term. Failure to overcome this resistance can lead to continuation in downtrend towards last month trough of 0.5565 and 2020 levels of 0.5495/0.5470.” Unlike the RBA yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met expectations by raising its key rate by 50 points to 3.5%. Having started raising the rate a year ago, the RBNZ accelerated the move from 25 to 50 points in April, bringing it to the cyclical highs of 2014-15. The Reserve Bank cites too high core inflation (without food and energy) and labor shortages as reasons for further rate hikes. And here, it is worth remembering that at its peak in 2007/08, New Zealand's key rate reached 8.25%, and cyclical lows in 2002 and 2003 were 4.75% and 5.00%, respectively. In other words, the New Zealand economy is more suited to high rates than many.
Short
by xavierNF
4
Selling Canadian Bacon.CADCHF broke the above trend line that market have been respecting for the last 2 years & 6 months. When a 2+ year trendline have been broken the market is trying to tell us something, if you look close enough you'll see market dropped 680 pips to break that trendline and is currently consolidating that move. When market decides to break the previous low made (0.71154), i see market dropping towards 0.68, a (-6.06%) decline from markets current position covering -438.6 pips. The CAD have been suffering due to falling oil prices and the CHF is benefiting as a safe haven & aggressive hikes from the SNB. Adjust STOPLOSS to suit your RISK plan.
Short
by xavierNF
Good Aussie Sell Off!I previously collected -347 pips ( -5%) from AUDUSD, market came and retested my support area ( now resistance area) around 0.65264 signaling more weakness to come. Any retest should be seen as a selling opportunity, I expect market to fall towards 0.61300, a -275 pips (-4.3%) move from market current position. Despite a strong start in July, the Australian Dollar fell against the US Dollar in August and September, extending the downward trend established in April when prices hit the highest level since June 2021 before selling off. AUD/USD closed out September with a loss of around 4% after the US Dollar surged against its major peers.
Short
by xavierNF
Meanwhile In New Zealand PT2NZD/USD retreats from a nearly two-week high set earlier this Thursday amid fresh USD buying. Bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes and elevated US bond yields continue to boost the buck. Recession fears weigh on investors’ sentiment and also exert pressure on the risk-sensitive kiwi. The NZD/USD pair struggles to find acceptance above the 0.5800 mark for the second successive day and retreats sharply from a nearly two-week high touched earlier this Thursday. The steady intraday slide extends through the mid-European session and drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, with bears eyeing a sustained break below the 0.5700 round figure. A combination of factors helps revive the US dollar demand, which, in turn, is exerting some downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to tame inflation and have been pricing in another supersized 75 bps rate increase in November. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments by several Fed officials, which remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continue to act as a tailwind for the USD.
Short
by xavierNF
2
EuroStepping ReupThe last EURO trade posted hit my SL, it happens from time to time. However in light of renewed USD strength because of persistent inflation i see EUR/USD continuing the downtrend. "Dollar strength remains the main hindrance to recovery in the pair, but the domestic picture is still far from looking appealing to investors. Despite a smaller-than-expected slump in the ZEW expectations index, the current situation survey plunged dramatically to -72.2 in October. These are levels last seen only in 2020 and 2009.” “The easing in gas prices is likely preventing new lows, but i think the next round of dollar appreciation will heavily test that support.”
Short
by xavierNF
1
EuroStepping “The dollar remains the main beneficiary of rising US (real) yields in a persistent risk-off context.” “Geopolitical and recessionary risks are bigger for Europe, holding down the single currency as well even as the European Central Bank finally embraced on a tightening cycle.” “Resistance stands at 0.9950/1.0050. The YTD low stands at 0.9536.” EUR/USD is in a strong downward trend channel since February. I expect the world’s most popular currency pair to remain under pressure.
Short
by xavierNF
5
NIFTY Swing PlaysHere is a multi time frame analaysis view for NF based on price and volume profile. Key swing hurdle at 11510-11550F. Confirmation neede on whether this the pullback retracement is complete. Hold below 11410F will confirm that and will offer a low risk swing pullback trade here. Aggresive entries on LTF can be done at CMP with stops above 11550F. On the downside move upto 11320 and 11150F is possible. This will become a complex correction if 11410F holds and we then look for new scenarios.
NSE:NIFTY1!Short
by PowerTrades