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EURUSD Technical Forecast on NFP 07.02.2025Overall Trend & Context: The EURUSD pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has recently been consolidating on the lower times. Fundamental Considerations for the NFP: Consensus Forecast (High Probability) - Most analysts forecast a gain in the 169K–170K range, which lines up with recent trends. A neutral result would suggest that the labor market is still solid. Stronger-than-Expected Outcome (Medium Probability) - If the report comes in well above consensus (eg: above 190K jobs), it could reinforce expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Weaker-than-Expected Outcome (Low Probability) - A result below expectations (eg: fewer than 135K jobs) might trigger a reassessment of the US economic outlook, we will need to watch the markets and prepare for dynamic shifts. Technical Findings: Weekly - Bearish and trading well below EMA's. Daily - Bearish & showing signs of 25 EMA rejection. Previous distribution is holding price at bay. 4 Hour - Strong supply levels holding and trading below the 200 EMA. 1 Hour - Close to overbought levels and LTF distribution is holding. Important Notes: DXY is at a previous demand which proved to be a challenge to break through in the past. GBPUSD & EURUSD can have variations in the short term correlation but the technicals both align, which reinforces our EURUSD narrative. USDJPY technicals remain bullish on the long term however, the short term is in a downtrend and has reached a daily demand - we could potentially see a bullish reaction from here (based on DXY strength and the negative correlation with EURUSD) Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: If the lows at 1.03800 fail we may need to adjust our entry zones based on where liquidity and supply are found. If price reaches the weaker supply level closer to the release of the NFP we can enter, however there is a chance we could get stuck in some drawdown if supply isn't strong enough to push through. HIGH PROFILE NEWS RELEASES ARE DOUBLE EDGED IF YOU'RE NOT CAREFUL. YOU DO NOT NEED TO BASE YOUR ENTIRE TRADING CAREER ON IT. STAY OUT IF YOU'RE NOT COMFORTABLE TRADING NEWS. AS TRADERS, YOUR PRIMARY JOB IS TO PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL - WITHOUT CAPITAL YOU CAN'T MAKE ANY MOVES. Trade smart. Hope you all make money if you're trading today! Apex out! OANDA:EURUSD FX:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD OANDA:USDJPY TVC:DXY OANDA:GBPUSD PEPPERSTONE:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
USDJPY Long: NFP ON TAP!!! NFP is expected to come in at about 169k. We will watch the actual news results before deciding whether to continue the trade. If the news comes in better than expected, we expect the US dollar to become stronger against the Yen. If NFP comes in lower than expected, we will be looking to other major pairs for trading setups. We can see price is moving in a bullish direction, which is supported by the short-term trendline breakout and a change in market structure from bearish to bullish.
Long
by NDOBObanks
#NFP/USDT#NFP We have a bearish channel pattern on a 12-hour frame, the price moves within it, adheres to its limits well, and is expected to break it upwards strongly. We have a support area at the lower border of the channel at $0.400 from which the price rebounded We have a tendency to stabilize above moving average 100 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break higher, supporting the price higher Entry price is 0.4848 The first target is 0.5800 The second goal is 0.6840. The third goal is 0.7824
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
NFP trading strategy There is NFP data to be released today. After yesterday's narrow range, the market will experience another huge shock today. Are you ready? Judging from the current trend, resistance is concentrated around 2049. Focus on this position before today's data is released. If it breaks through, the upper resistance will appear near 2058. If it cannot break through, it is highly likely that it will fall back to around 2032. There is a high probability that today’s data will be beneficial to gold shorts, so when trading, shorts will dominate, and market fluctuations will be relatively large. Be careful to strictly control risks. If you have any questions, please leave me a message in time! Good luck, everyone!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Allen_Ex
2
NFP set to be Bearish, Here's Why 😉👇After some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉 NOTE: NOTICED MY FIRST POST HAD 2 CHARTS OVERLAPPING, THIS IS A REPOST
UShort
by XeroxFTC
2
NFP set to be Bearish on NASDAQ 👇😉, Here's WhyAfter some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉
UShort
by XeroxFTC
NFP Possible opportunity and trading setupsToday's NFP print is coming in 2h and 30m, trading plan following. In the last couple of days we got higher Labor data with Jobless claims, Jolts data printing way better than market expectations, and these 2 components fit into the NFP this might mean that on the aggregate the 185K US NFP estimation might be slightly higher than that. Anyways, let's move into the NFP now. The bulk of market participants are between 150-200K and for exaggerated movements, we should look for anything below 150K for US$ shorting or 200K for US$ long. As a second layer of risk, we can use 125K to the downside and 225K to the upside which will give us the ultimate trading conviction. US NFP printing higher than 200K (Risk x1) US NFP printing higher than 225K (Risk x2) EURUSD - GBPUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔽 USDJPY 🔼 US NFP printing lower than 150K (Risk x1) US NFP printing lower than 125K (Risk x2) NZDUSD - AUDUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔼 -Extra notes- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) and Unemployment rate need to be considered as a second layer of conviction into this trade setup... They are similarly essential and if they give a very different picture than NFP then we should be considering this in our analysis and either deduct any risk from our positions or even close our positions after all. Average hourly earnings YoY have a previous Result of 4.6% and an estimation of 4.3% above 4.4% or below 4.2%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised by a result of 4.2% and below or 4.4% and above. The US Unemployment rate has a previous result of 3.5% and an estimation forecast of 3.6%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised with a result of 3.4% and below and 3.7% or above. Consider the above as possible conflicting factors or boosting factors to the NFP result, also don't forget that the Unemployment rate lower is US$ hawkish, and the Unemployment rate higher is US$ dovish.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Investing_Bridge
USD/CHF (NFP INFO) According to my latest analysis, the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) should be "Positive" with a small increase in MOM average hourly earnings, this will boost the USD and bring the gold down, and I hope you understand the correlation between CHF & GOLD (they move in the same pace) that's why watching the bigger picture the pair is in an uptrend, but in a couple of hours, there will be a decline in the price until the NFP report comes out. First, we will short the pair to 1.0042. 2nd, we start buying from entry point 1.0042 with TP 1.0145 (risk-reward 1:3) Good luck to all!
by EndlessPips
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!KOG Report NFP: This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep this brief today as its very likely we won’t be trading this release unless our key levels are hit and then we may look to take a position. So far this week we’ve hit the lower target on Gold and we’ve hit the 1913-15 target on Gold. This leaves us with two values, one above and one below that we now want to target. The level above is illustrated on the chart and is around the 1925 price region, this level we feel would represent an opportunity to take the short trade back towards the lower targets starting at 1840. The lower target is an aggressive low which is situated around the 1825 region. A push on the price towards this level we feel would represent an opportunity to take the long trade back up to target the 1850, 1860 and above that 1880 levels. Just as we saw with the FOMC report we swung into our zone and the price reacted giving the short. This time we’ll wait again at the higher or lower regions and not get involved on the intraday levels, especially on a Friday! Hope this helps in preparation for NFP. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe.
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to start with what we mentioned in the KOG report on Sunday where we said we would be looking for support during the course of the week and then for the price to push up towards the higher resistance levels where we would be looking to short the market. During the course of the week we hope you can see we’ve kept members in the right way of the market even though our bias is bearish on Gold. So lets look at what the market has done in preparation for NFP. As we’ve said they will swoop the low for liquidity before bringing it back up towards the 1810-12 level and settle the price for the release. This has all happened this week! Now looking at the chart we can see we’re settling above previous supply which would suggest the price can target the higher resistance levels. The KOG report suggest the 1808-12 level for the first short 1820 and the 1824-7 level for the next attempt at the short trade. For NFP we’ll give you two scenarios. Scenario 1: If the price comes down to hit the 1804-6 support level and finds support this could represent a good opportunity to long the market in to the immediate resistance levels above of 1816, 1820-22 and above that 1827-32. Please note, if there is no support at the mentioned level its likely we will continue down testing and potentially breaking the 1797-5 support region. A strong resistance at the levels above however could be an opportunity to short the market back down into the lower support regions and potentially lower. We have a KOG target of 1770 which we wanted to see achieved this week but we’re not holding out for it, especially during an event like NFP! Level to level trading please. Scenario 2: If the price pushes down from here we will be looking at the lower support regions of 1777 and below that 1770. We’re not interested in the 1797-5 level as support anymore and would rather miss the opportunity to long the market at that levels. We feel the lower support regions will represent a good opportunity to long the market but only into the immediate resistance level above which would be 1785 and above the 1795-7. Hope this helps members. Even with our bearish view on Gold we’ve managed to keep you in the right direction as always, taking shorts and longs this week into the levels and targets we’ve mentioned. We would like to see how this NFP plays out and where the market closes today to confirm our view for the rest of the month of February. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
How to trade at NFP? Usually, average hourly earnings don't print positive. I have seen very few times NFP and Hourly earnings published positive together in the last 13 years. When companies hire more people, it's expected that they don't want to pay more and overtime. But, on the other side, companies don't recruit new people, and then they pay more overtime to their existing workers. That's why most of the time, we see Either NFP prints post or hourly earnings. Hourly earning is essential for the following CPI report. I mean, inflation reports are related to hourly earnings. NFP is the main report; there is no doubt. But in some cases, hourly earnings and unemployment play a significant role than the NFP. Moreover, especially when central banks want to raise rates, in the meantime inflation is essential. Central banks need more than 2% inflation to raise bank rates. In that case, hourly earnings are more important than NFP. So, it is expected that NFP will print positively than the previous report today, and hourly earnings may not fulfill its forecast. But last CPI reports were positive, So, it won't be wrong as well. What to do while you are trading NFP? When central banks are not hiking bank rates market always follows NFP. Whatever the other's reports are. If NFP print is upbeat, we should buy the USD. But keep in mind, though NFP reports are printed positive, hourly earnings and unemployment may drop. It is essential to keep in mind always that the market follows NFP eventually, not initially. So, if other reports print negative, The USD will become weak first. Then, after 5 minutes or 15 minutes, the USD will follow NFP from any swing area. On the other hand, If other reports prints positive but NFP report prints negative. In that cases, the USD will spike to the upside, but ultimately it will drop. Just keep in mind the situation that central banks are in rate-hiking mode or not. So give priority hourly earnings reports when the central banks are in rate-hiking mode. And usually, give priority NFP reports every time. How To Handle Technically While Trading NFP? If you want to handle the market at NFP, you should know swing trading and the uses of Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension. Use 5 minutes candle. For example, the market closed with 5 minutes bearish candle, NFP printed negative, and other reports printed positive. So, the USD will spike to the upside first. So, if you are good at swing trade, you can sell from the swing area. Otherwise, you should use Fibonacci tools. If the market closed with a bearish candle, that means it will correct to the upside nearly 50% fibo area. So, go short from fibo 50% area and use Fibonacci extension tolls to set your take profit area at 61.8%. Just do opposite things if NFP prints positive and other reports prints negative.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
Bye-Bye Tapering Announcement (06 September 2021)Jobs growth in August way off market’s expectation. Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 235,000 jobs being created in August, way below the market’s expectation of 720,000. The leisure and hospitality sector, the main driver behind the strong jobs growth for the past several months, added zero jobs amid the rise in COVID cases. With the leisure and hospitality sector taking a backseat, the professional and business services sector led the August’s jobs growth with an increase of 74,000 jobs. The worsening COVID situation has impacted the job market more negatively in August than in July. 5.6 million people reported not being able to work as their employer wind down business due to the pandemic. This figure rose from the July’s figure of 5.2 million. All is not lost. Despite the poor August figure, upward revisions were made to the number of jobs created for the past two months. In July, the number of jobs created was revised from 943,000 to 1,053,000 while in June, the figure was revised from 938,000 to 962,000. In total, these revisions reflected 134,000 jobs more than previously reported. Furthermore, based on history, nonfarm payroll figures have a tendency of subjecting to substantial revision due to discrepancies as a result of people going on summer vacation. Hence, there is a chance that the scanty figure released this month may be revised upwards to salvage the situation a little even though the shortfall may be too big. Chance of a September taper announcement is dimming. Without a doubt, the Federal Reserve is not going to like what they see from this jobs report. This will definitely lower the chance that the central bank will be making a QE tapering announcement during their meeting later this month. As a result, the Fed may postpone such an announcement to the meeting in November while buying some time for the jobs market to prove its worth.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee