Interesting zone right now for Yen crosses this weekWatch this current zone. An over-and-under pattern and fib 261.8 lurks below and the Weekly pivot is the magnet above.
Either way PA choose it sets a the path for the Yen crosses this week.
Japan 225
Experimenting with Trend-based fib time tool - short NIKKEII just discovered that TrView has a very neat tool for applying fibo ratios to trend duration.
Called "Trend-based Fib Time".
Since the duration of the correction often lasts 61.8% of the trend, there we have it - NIKKEI (and others) seem to be approaching this very milestone. It looks like a shorting opportunity to me.
NIKKEI is a high beta index, offering larger swings than SPX, so why not give it a try?
NIKKEI one more upswing pendingSo NIKKEI has almost made it to the new high and went into sell-off mode. Because we are running a motive wave up - it needs to contain five waves. We've seen three: up, down, up, now running forth down, so there's still one upswing left in the present ascending wave. Same for other indices. All point to the start of a major sell-off end Aug, but not yet there.
Nikkei: Tight stop long tradeThe Nikkei is offering a nice tight entry on the long side.
Risk 1/2 position on this one, entry is market now, stop at 20462, tp at 26720.
Will trail the stop on a daily basis.
The quarterly chart shows a valid uptrend in place, with time left until July 2016.
We are also above the biggest time spent at price level in the whole chart's history, with the next significant resistance at 21244 and the next at 26720. If we manage to survive in this long and cross the first level, it might continue up and hit the second one, making this a very attractive entry. The horizontal ray on the daily chart is a vixfix 75% retrace level, caused by smart money buying into a strong decline, one of the key levels demonstrated by Tim West in his publications. (he uses Vix though, for S&P500)
It's possible that we see a crash this year though, since this is so overextended, specially if S&P500 crashes like I expect.
Good luck,
Ivan.
$NIKKEI - Extended Third WaveI'm still bullish on the Japan. QE /made in #Kuroda/ pushes indexes higher and higher. Rumor has it the new QE in October /after FED #ratehike??/.
thepatternsite.com
Nikkei expanded the correction pattern. Nikkei was under huge pressure today. Regardless the reason behind the move, I identify it as the 4th wave correction(Purple). I expect the price action of this 4th wave to be confined by the black pitchfork. It could possibly spike lower and test May 2007 high at 18306. I think buy dip into that area and sell the first rally into the medium line is good play here.
GBPJPY: Worth a small entry hereAnalysis on chart, GBPJPY dropped into a previous uptrend mode support.
Might give us a good entry on the back of news releases today.
Risking 1% on this entry. Won't have a take profit level, but it might stall at the one on chart.
The Nikkei might correct today, it's fairly probable.
Good luck,
Ivan.
NIKKEI is approaching the reversal point in a couple of daysS&P reversed in May, and re-confirmed its reversal this week. Nikkei is approaching the reversal point just now. There is just one tiny subwave 5 left, in which the market may try to set a new high or match the previous one. After that we are going to observe a quick (1-2 months) retracement of the ending diagonal, travelling to 16500-17000.
I think the first trading day of the month, 1st July, as usual will be a good starting point for a sell-off.
Nikkei: Short term short setupThe Nikkei is correcting the last upward leg in the daily chart after signaling a 3 bar daily uptrend, time expires today, and the 4h chart paints a clearly bearish picture.
The minimal target is on chart, and to enter the trade I'd look into selling a range expansion down bar out of the mode at 20785.
You would have to use my indicator and wait for a bar to turn red to market sell, or sell now if your strategy allows it.
Mine doesn't, as price sits in a triangle right now, with conflicting shorter term trends colliding, I'd advice against jumping the gun. The linear regression is another cue, a breakout and 1 bar close without touching the mode is the go signal.
Good luck!
Ivan.
PS: you can also use this chart as the opposite, a cue to go long Nikkei and/or USDJPY after confirming the selloff (which would take price into my buy area in the case of the Yen)
USDJPY: Longer term perspective is still bullishI've been watching this chart closely, and I think we might see a great buy setup in the near short term.
Eyeing the area between 121.43 and 122.34, with invalidation for this signal below 118.968, potential upside is 137.94 in 6 months or less.
We don't get significant trends in FX very often, and this is one of them. I'll be monitoring the Yen to enter a longer term position in it, since I consider the risk/reward and probabilities to be on the bullish side here.
The fundamental odds favor this position as well, I included The Working Trader's idea in the related ideas field since I consider his input valuable. It's good when both technicals and fundamentals agree, just have to be patient for the right setup to pop.
Good luck,
Ivan.
USDJPY: Top spottedSimple setup, initiate a short when the support is breached.
We have a very strong decline after completing what looks like an expanding ending diagonal triangle in the 4h/daily charts.
If price moves below the support level outlined in the chart, it will accelerate down, probably moving 430+ pips to the downside.
As a bonus, crude oil seems to be moving up, while Nikkei falls, effectively boosting this trade, correlation wise.
Will update with my entry and scale ins.
Good luck,
Ivan.
USDJPY Head & ShoulderFundamentals:
- BOJ has not express additional stimulus despite pressure from other central banks
- A weaker USD due to economic data
Technically:
- Yen and Nikkei at 2015 high so pullback is healthy
- 4 hour is showing potential H&S formation
- RSI has rooms to fall
- From the breakout level, Fib of 38.2% is a healthy and viable target
If Head & Shoulder play out this is the target which coincide with the minor support and 38.2% retracement at 122.45 - 122.70 levels.
Entry@ 123.70
Stop@ 124.20 (-50)
Target@ 122.70 (100)
RR of 1:2
After the pullback-usdyen is still a bullish market-consider switch to long
Potential Cypher in Nikkei 225Just looking at this stock index, you can see it is a one way street at the moment. However, one way streets are often dangerous and taking the opposing way can be rewarding sometimes.
Here is a potential Cypher pattern. At the moment the price appears to be at a double top and I think many traders will chose this spot as a potential place to short. However, because the market is so strong I feel it will push up towards the upper trendline, testing the strength of these shorts. Many will stop out no doubt, then the market could fall back off this trendline to around 20231 completing the Cypher to give a potential long opportunity.
Could short around 20650 and reverse position at 20231 at the line of resistance and Cypher completion point, then target the potential 20650 highs again.
Remember markets do what they do, not what traders predict. This is just an idea.
Please like this if you would like more posts like this.
CADJPY: Neutral, probably pending upside to be seenCADJPY has been in a consolidation for some time, before launching a fierce uptrend, in what I consider to be a wave C impulse in a larger flat.
I considered the move complete, but looking at how it behaved after topping, I suspect that the uptrend isn't complete yet.
We can observe a series of smaller timeframe trends briefly putting the bears and the bulls in command, typical triangle behavior.
Also, the daily and weekly rgmov remain signaling an uptrend, while price stopped falling when meeting with the lowest high trendline I drew from the lows, and we have a series of highs and lows where we don't observe a move past them, effectively suggesting coiling price action, yet to explode.
The explosion will most likely be up if this is indeed a wave 4 triangle, but we'll see.
For the time being, I refrain to trade this pair until it shows directional commitment on either side.
Tread carefully!
Cheers,
Ivan.
EURJPY: BOJ fueled short pt. 2We have interesting news releases coming out tonight, and thoughout tomorrow's session.
The technical chart shows an uptrend that is showing signs of exhaustion after correcting the strong decline from the December high from March 16 onwards.
The advance was halted when price reached an area of weekly low volume resistance, where the market was extremely one sided. These areas can reject price and stop the bulls' advance very reliably.
Now the market remains motionless after a strong selloff, which confirmed an hourly downtrend signal, while the 4h chart shows a volume buildup on the lows, increasing selling pressure after the sharp leg down completion started a sideways correction. I expect to see a strong move coming out of this juncture, fueled by the news releases.
23:00 US USD FOMC Member Williams speech 1
FRIDAY, MAY 22
02:00 CN CNY CB Leading Economic Index (Apr) 1 0.2
n/a JP JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
03:00 JP JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1%
06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q1) 3 0.3% 0.3%
06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1%
06:45 FR EUR Business Climate (May) 1 101 101
08:00 DE EUR IFO - Expectations (May) 2 103.1 103.5
08:00 DE EUR IFO - Current Assessment (May) 2 113.6 113.9
08:00 DE EUR IFO - Business Climate (May) 2 108.3 108.6
08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.4%
08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.8%
08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (Mar) 1 -0.9%
08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 2%
08:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3
09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 0.1%
09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.2% -0.2%
n/a GR EUR Current Account (YoY) (Mar) 1 €-0.929B
12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Apr) 1 240.79
12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.1% 0.2%
12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Apr) 1 236.71 236.12
12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 3 -0.1% -0.1%
12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr) 3 1.7% 1.8%
13:30 JP JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech 3
13:30 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3
19:00 AR ARS Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr) 1
Previous ideas:
Nikkei225: Potential TCT into A Cypher (Some Random Analysis)The Forex markets have been kicking my tail this week so I decided to take a look at some other markets simply to clear my mind. Conducting technical analysis is actually a stress reliever to me, when I get do it on something that I don't trade. A few of my clients have expressed that they trade many of the indices, which lead me to the Nikkei.
Initially the first thing that popped out to me was the potential bearish Cypher pattern which met up with an outstanding amount of Fibonacci confluence after putting on a few extensions, retracements and inversions. I also had an abcd move projected last night, but couldn't say for sure since the "C" leg was still in progress.
As I took another look this morning i see that the C leg has retraced to a level deep enough to provide a rather good risk to reward for a trader looking to hop on long...not because of the potential Cypher completion, rather because of the overall shift in the trend that we just saw after achieving a HHHC.
