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Ninjabenja

$Lisk approaching a critical mass eventAt first blush there seems to be a lot going on here but spend just a minute to examine the trend lines and thier origins. They're showing you where we'll find support on a bearish move, or resistance on bullish move, far into the future. This is a weekly scale, log chart. Fundamentally, Lisk hasn't been the most exciting blockchain project. However, what they have going for them is consistent development, a low bar for entry to devs already very familiar with JS and a track record of relentless development and sound business practices. Technically this chart *strongly* favors bullish continuation. A target #1 at $10.44USD on a bullish breakout of the symmetrical triangle comes with a healthy R/R at about 5.5. This target #1 also coincides with a D completion on a bearish bat pattern at that same level. A full send move on strong volatility to a target #2 at only $40 comes with a whopping 18.46 R/R. Both scenarios assume a stop loss set at minimum $2.15 In any event, my target is north of $100- then things start to get interesting. Good Luck!
BINANCE:LSKUSDLong
by ninjabenja
10
Bitcoin still on track for 120k+It's been a few years since I've posted anything and I don't intend to start up again with any regularity. Posting this Weekly Log scale analysis of Bitcoin by request. The chart was created two and a half years ago, and we featured it along with in-depth analysis on an episode of our show. (I've posted a link to it below). The TL;DR is that bitcoin is still on track for bullish continuation as of todays date. It's my theory that when/if Tether implodes we could see some dramatic volatility but even in such an event- it ultimately changes nothing. Bitcoin is just as scarce, just as secure and just as usable at sub 10k as it is at 100k and beyond. The difference now vs. back when this chart was created (other than how much Tether has inflated the price) is that we have much greater visibility and exposure to the public, extreme interest by mega corps who are tired of watching thier USD value melt, and massively larger whales scooping up vast amounts- more than ever before. 1 nation down, 194 to go. #BTFD. Cheers! Link to the segment on Youtube - youtu.be
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ninjabenja
5
Cardano (ADA) Nearing Bullish Gartley CompletionSince I haven't been following or trading Cardano for some time, I have no fundamental data to chase the technicals here. Trade is based on raw pattern identification. Typically I would say to place stops below X, but in this instance it might make the R/R unfavorable for the trade, so use your best judgement based on support levels. For more information on what the Gartley Advanced Pattern is and/or how to trade it, see below. In a two target set up, PRZs are identified on the chart. Best of luck! www.tradingview.com
ALong
by ninjabenja
1
ANOTHER Lisk bullish Cypher on the DailyIf you were waiting for an "optimal entry" and were dumb enough to miss the last round; amazingly we're getting a second look. I would expect to see a push lower, (hopefully) to the $15 range but with indies bottomed and embedded it could get crazy with a panic spike low. It's worth noting that SCMR is still printing red trend candles. Typically stops would be placed somewhere south of X, or under the $12 zone. See previous published chart for more detail on the Cypher advanced pattern. Cheers! TLDR: Traditional targets : Target 1 : 0.382 retracement of CD leg Target 2 : 0.618 retracement of CD leg
LLong
by ninjabenja
2
LISK - Bullish Cypher pattern Market opportunities like this don't come along very often. By definition, higher time frame charts are typically better indicators of over all trend than anything intra-day. Oddly, I find not very many traders utilize them. The bullish cypher pattern just completed on Lisk is a strong signal that we'll see a correction. Remains to be seen if it will be sustained but the entry remains a good R/R nonetheless. For more information on the Cypher advanced pattern, take a look at Nico's publication: TLDR: Traditional targets : Target 1 : 0.382 retracement of CD leg Target 2 : 0.618 retracement of CD leg Opinion and disclosure: Lisk has - serious - potential for 2018. I do not trade Lisk, only buy more when and where I am able. I still chart it for patterns and entries, much as I do with many other pairs I follow. I have (as of 9 days ago) sold half my EOS position to buy more LISk. Be smart with your trades, and best of luck to you.
LLong
by ninjabenja
1
EOS starting to signal a bullish trendI've been evangelizing the chat to annoyance, so I thought I'd post a public idea on the issue. About two years ago, after reading into the night (for many nights) on this thing called "ethereum" I was super excited about the tech and it's potential. I'd post about it constantly in the chat, suggest people buy in or at least look into it and give it an honest review. I really wanted it to be successful, not explicitly for my profits (as I bought pre-sale) but for the desperate need for such a technology to exist and to thrive. Unfortunately after a myriad of Ethereum based ICOs, it's become painfully clear that the tech we got, was not the tech that we need or which will last. Each new ICO on the ethereum network exposes more flaws, mainly being: it will never be able to scale to real-world business transaction needs. The network grinds to a halt, causing transactions to take hours or days at best, or to just fail completely at worst. Hell, look at the needs of a network like Facebook for that matter: 510,000 comments are posted, 293,000 statuses are updated, and 136,000 photos are uploaded -- PER MINUTE. Visa can do 24,000 transactions per second... Ethereum is crushed by 10. 10 per second is it's top and it's not even able to handle that in reality. I explained that, to tell you this: I have FULLY divested from Ethereum, and am buying heavy into the tech most likely to swallow it whole - EOS. Do your own research on EOS and get educated. The price is very attractive right now and as the chart shows, it is signaling the start of a bullish trend. I will not sell my EOS for at least two years. I want it to fully succeed and I'm looking at the investment- as an investment - into a product I want to use. I have NO targets for EOS, and will be buying in at many different levels. The green line on the chart indicates my average entry to date. Please save your tirade about how Ethereum is never going away- for someone who cares. I'm making no claims as to the continued existence of the Ethereum network, only that I'll no longer be supporting it. Good luck out there. add also: medium.com and this: www.coindesk.com
ELong
by ninjabenja
10
ANTshares / NEO Symmetrical triangle BreakoutNot a lot to say about this at the moment. There are fundamental influences at work which have forced a break out of the symmetrical triangle to the up side. Standard target on this pattern is a measured move from the first bottom touch of the pattern to the top resistance line. A conservative take profit level would be at #1, where we see an extension of the lower support trend line off the first top touch of the pattern. A more aggressive profit target would be at #2, which is the typical termination level for such a trade. The green horizontal line on the chart represents my average entry.
ALong
by ninjabenja
4
XRP Doom Target short, then long. This is a bit granular but I like the way the 4 hr looks. This long trade setup is the coupe de gras on the symmetrical triangle break down. When our long-shot long failed from back on the 7th ( see published chart ), it confirmed the short trade off the triangle. An aggressive entry would have been a candle close below the pattern on higher time frames. More conservative entries can be taken at our current level or at a break below the previous structure low. If price gets below that level, the final pattern target is a shoe-in. It's also worth noting that we have an overlay of Bitcoin price action ( which I explain here ) Admittedly The T/P and buy target is shown on the chart and spans the measured move from the opening of the pattern, as is typical.
Short
by ninjabenja
3
XRP Price action overlayJust an interesting observation. While looking at the structure of a number of different "Alt" coins I started to see a pattern. Granted, markets move the way they do because of the actions of the participants- which are more often than not going to be similar to other participants. This is why fibs work, and why there is a known bubble cycle. People are predictable. Case-in-point: This higher time frame bitcoin price action overlay onto the XRP (Ripple) 12hr chart. I've posted this in the chat a number of times in an effort to show others what seems to be a working road map, having been consistent now for months. I originally produced the overlay at the break of the symetrical triangle. The targets shown were drawn in PRIOR to the addition of the overlay, which shows a potential confirmation of the pattern target. Take from this what you will.
by ninjabenja
Bearish Bat Pattern off an *Easy* range trade. The support at this level has been impressive, forcing price to trade in a tightening range for more than a week. What's more impressive is the R/R on a long position from this level (however unlikely). I make no apologies for not being a fan of Ripple and wouldn't mind if it just died, but if we get a break out to the upside it should prove to be a dramatic and profitable move. Originally I had been charting a symmetrical triangle on the last two weeks of price action (daily TF) but we've pushed so far to the end of the triangle, I no longer consider it truly valid. More appropriate and safer, is a taking a trade off the "range box" in either direction. Because of the reasons stated above, I'm aiming at a long. A conservative (smart) entry would be taken at a candle close outside the box. An aggressive entry would be taken at our current level with stops at a or below the 'A' point of the bearish bat pattern. My recommendation for a "safe trade" is to wait for the confirmation candle to close outside the box and then enter. If we break below, targets would be previous SCMR Support zones, illustrated by the dots on the chart.
Long
by ninjabenja
3
Weak Gartley completion at lower trendlineSo I need to start by saying, this bullish Gartley Advanced Pattern is not truly valid. A proper Gartley of any flavor requires a precise .618 retracement of the XA leg, and as you can see, this one missed it's mark by .03. Decide for yourself if you think that's a deal breaker. The 'D' completion point of the pattern sits right on top of the lower trend line. Also be aware that the trend lines define an ascending wedge on higher time frames, so, while I can see a pull back to find resistance- ultimately I expect we will fall out of the wedge as it is a bearish pattern. Be that as it may, our lower time frame trade will have us short to the pattern completion, then long off the bullish gartley. Best of luck.
Short
by ninjabenja
2
Stratis looking down the barrel of a bullish GartleyIn the last week, price bounced in-between two SCMR dynamic levels seeking a direction: first off support, then back down from resistance to test and break previous support. This has set us up for possible completion of a bullish Gartley advanced pattern at or near the 'D' point price of 0.00153730 BTC. I could certainly see a panic stab down to the next SCMR support level at .00125797. Recomended conservative trade is a buy in the PRZ with target #1 at previous SCMR resistance near 'B' point of the pattern. Target#2 would be at or near the real candle body previous structure high. Typically we would put our stops below X. Best of luck!
SLong
by ninjabenja
6
XMRBTC Triangle breakout Could lead to Emerging Bat PatternThis is a similar set up to the XMRUSD chart I just posted, but the pattern has yet to properly define itself. In this instance, we would be looking for a break above/close above of the triangle consolidation pattern for a conservative long entry. TP on that long and also a perfect Short entry, will be at the D completion point of a confirmed bat pattern. Target 1 for Bearish Bat Pattern = .382 of the CD move @ .01840btc Target 2 for Bearish Bat Pattern = .682 of the CD move @ .01489btc
Long
by ninjabenja
2
Short opportunity on Stamp 4hrMany people will tell you (vehemently) that this is a bearish cypher pattern because it looks similar, with 'C' extended beyond 'A' to a 1.13 extension of XA. You'll even see the 1.13 'XA' extension for 'C' listed under the Cypher requirements on some websites. *This is not correct*. As Akil Stokes and others from Tradeempowered.com have clarified, the Cypher is defined in part by 'C' being a minimum 1.272 extension of 'XA', with a 'D' completion at .786 of the distance 'XC'. Take these requirements as fact since TradeEmpowered was the team who discovered the pattern. Remember also, that the TV advanced pattern tool does not work for properly identifying a Cypher, as it pulls the extensions from the wrong points. You have to use the fib extension tool. So then, if it's not a Cypher what is it. Anything? ... here's where I'll get a little - ambiguous. The Shark advanced pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2011 is one of the newest advanced patterns, and is said to be an emerging 5-0 pattern. It also happens to look a lot like a Cypher. I've never attempted to chart or trade the Shark until now, so allow me some room for error but here is my understanding of the requirements: Shark Pattern Basics • Different from the M-type and W-type alignments in the other patterns but the same Harmonic Trading principles apply. • Comprised of two independent price segments – 1. Failed Harmonic Impulse Wave 2. Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave • The Shark Pattern is dependent upon the powerful 88.6% retracement and the 113% Reciprocal Ratio. • Represents a temporary extreme structure that seeks to capitalize on the extended nature of the Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave. • Demands immediate change in price action character immediately following pattern completion. • Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave utilized depends upon location of 88.6% level – these are minimum requirements. Bearish reversal is expected. Targets are .382 and .618 as listed on the chart. Stops would be above 'X' or above the 1.13 extension of X'A'. Here is more information on the Shark pattern: harmonictrader.com ...and here is information on the 5-0 pattern: www.harmonictrader.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
2
Batten down the hatches, bitcoin could be taking on waterThe larger bearish trend appears to have won out yet again, with price slumping away from what was a half hearted attempt by bulls this past month. On the horizon is this beautiful bullish Gartley and even now price is curling in towards 'D' point completion at just above $180. I tend to post quite a few screen shots to TradingView chat. These are made up of more "spit-ball" ideas not typically worth/worthy of publication. However, I wanted to share one since it's relevant to the implications on this chart. Here we see prior instances of consolidation on a weekly scale. Shown circled are three consecutive weeks of price consolidation, yielding lower with each new candle close. Of note is the sharp sell-offs which have followed. We are now emerging from the sixth such consolidation, this time lasting 4 weeks. RSI illustrates clearly where we have broken bullish momentum in previous circumstance and in each instance the end result being a new lower low. Trade Plan: Short to 'D' completion where we take profit and await confirmation for a long entry. Typical targets on a gartley pattern are .382 and .618 of the distance XA,. Pattern becomes invalid once price violates X. For more on Gartleys and how to trade them, check this out: www.harmonictrader.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
6
Symmetrical triangle break down looming + Advanced patternsThere is a lot going on in the chart above. The larger pattern (light green) is a symmetrical triangle which will break in the direction of the over-all trend, about 75% of the time. Confirmation will be a daily candle closing either above or below the pattern. Inside the triangle we've got two measured moves AB=CD (green arrows and red arrows) as well as an incomplete Bullish Bat pattern and incomplete Bearish Cypher. Price is threatening to drop out of the triangle which would lead us to expect a price decline to support. Based on the SCMR dynamic levels, that would be near $227 and then $217. If the Bat completes at point D, bullish reversal targets are at .382 and .618 of the distance XA. (See chart in comments for recent example) ... If the Cypher completes, targets are .382 and .618 of the distance XC. For more detailed information on bat patterns go here: www.harmonictrader.com ... For more on Cyphers, go here: youtu.be Target level for trading the symmetrical triangle is drawn from the the first touch on the lower line to the top of the upper line, then that distance is taken as a measured move from where price breaks out of the pattern. In this instance, that would be around the $180 level. ... For more on Symmetrical Triangle patterns, see here: stockcharts.com We've had some real strong bullish opportunities lately and to a one, they've rotted on the vine. On May 4th, the first bitcoin hedge fund (GBTC) went live, trading hundreds over market price for the equivalent of 1 bitcoin, with 1 share being equal to .1 btc. The week of trading which preceded the launch saw only a $19 move up in price. Week of the launch, saw an over-all price decline. We've also now seen a Swedish ETN launch with little to no major movement in market price. Instead, what we're seeing is price beginning to steadily slump.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
9
Long opportunity on Bitstamp & Bitfinex 4hr chartThis chart is Heiken Ashi with SCMR Trends. Long/Buy entry is at a break above the potential bullish reversal candle (blue) with stops below previous candle low. Once the trade is underway, if price action prints a neutral (gray), stops should be moved up to the low of that candle to reduce risk. I might also consider moving stops up to structure around 240 if we break through the double top @ $242. Take profit will be either a cross down of TSI or completion of our advanced pattern, which ever comes first. The set up here is pretty good as far as R/R from our entry. Also, Date Range Forecasting™ (see below) says we need to break 228.77 in the next 4 days, 16hrs- or we should expect higher highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ninjabenja
3
Bearish Gartley, BITFINEXAdvanced pattern setups on Finex. We can see the pattern is forming within what appears to be a rising wedge formation. The rising wedge is a counter intuitive pattern which typically breaks in the opposite direction of the short term channel. The thesis here, is that once/ if we complete our Gartley at 'D' (about $233-4) we would watch for a break of the wedge. edit : initially i had posted that the completion of the Gartely would help to lead us into two other potential patterns, not taking into consideration that the price action to the Gartley's 'D' point, would invalidate them. Rookie mistake. I left them posted below. Regardless, I'm pleased to see that the pattern completed. Looking for retracements to .382 and then .618 of AD for our TP levels. (about $229 and $224.50)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by ninjabenja
5
SCMR Trend change tradeEdit : If you kept your stop at $251.52 ... then the stab down to $252.50 just stopped you out. Perhaps my T/P level was too ambitious but in all I'm happy with how this trade went. After speaking to SPYderCrusher about this trade he explained, when trading SCMR Trends in this way, it is advised to pay special attention to follow up trend color changes (see below). For example: price spiked to $262.90 (still green bar) and then price immediately pulled back lower to follow with an orange pivot bar. At that point we should have moved our stops to reduce our risk, as the trend was no longer constant green/bullish. Aggressive stop would have gone below the pivot bar low @ $257.64; conservative stop would have gone below the first gray bar low @ $254.80. In both cases we would have been stopped out of the trade, still in profit. See chart posted below. Original : We've crossed up on Stochastic 4hr, SCRM trend changed from neutral (gray) to bullish (printed a "weak" bullish candle, dark green) and we just got the long entry signal by price breaking above the first green "signal" candle. We've already challenged the last dynamic resistance level and I've got a potential t/p on the trade at historic horizontal resistance @ $265, just under the 200 MA (yellow line)... and also aligns with a volume gap. Stops under previous gray candle at 251.52
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ninjabenja
6
Bullish Cypher reaching for completionLong trade entry would be taken at the 'D' completion of this pattern; at $249.24. There are actually a couple of patterns working together right now. The Bearish Bat Pattern (link to chart below) appears to be pulling us down into the completion of this Bullish Cypher. Or, I suppose you could just say that it was fundamentals that sponsored the "unforseable" and sudden drop in price, via yet another btc market which ran off with user funds (goo.gl). Whichever you like. Typical targets for the Cypher pattern are: #1 @ .382 retracement of CD; #2 @ .618 retracement of the distance CD.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ninjabenja
5
Bearish Bat Pattern on the DailyThis pattern will be valid at a touch of $298.32 on Stamp. If you front run your trades a few pips like I typically do, then the current level is sufficient to consider a short position. The Bearish Bat Pattern is a deep retest of resistance around the 'X' level. The 'B' point retracement should be between .382 and .50. The 'D' point reversal is observed at the .886 of the distance 'XA'. If a Bat Pattern fails it can sometimes morph into a Crab pattern, where 'D' exceeds 'X' to complete at 1.618 of 'XA'.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
4
Bullish Butterfly, lower time frameI don't often go to the 1hr time frame, but I'm hunting around for a better long entry on a retracement. This is just something to keep on the radar for the time being. A move above 'C' will invalidate this pattern, and really both 'C' and 'B' are ever so slightly not "perfect" (see below). On the whole this looks to be a well formed pattern. This would be a long trade/buy opportunity, which would only be taken at the 'D' completion point... if price gets there. The butterfly contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a significant low (X) or high. This pattern is found only at significant market tops or bottoms. Requirements: 'B' point should be a .786 retracement of the XA leg 'C' point should be either .382 or .886 retracement of AB Swing from A to D should be a 1.272 or 1.618 extension of XA 'D' Must be below 'X' A valid ABCD must be observed in the extension move (AD) *Ideally*, the two triangles will be nearly equal in time, XAB and BCD. Otherwise, look for BCD to complete between 1.272 and 1.618. A move beyond 1.618 renders the pattern invalid and suggests a strong trend continuation in progress.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ninjabenja
2