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Trade Log NIFTY July 16In my July 15 post, I had said Again tomorrow may be a pause ,range bound day with indecision candle. I don't expect it to cross above 10760. The lower bound is again 10560. The other possibility is continuing the trend towards the 10500 level. NIFTY paused and stayed in the large range of 10580-10760. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Trades today I did not trade today. My Observations for the day NIFTY formed hammer~doji , indecision candle, since it was an inside day as well. It closed 1.15% higher. BANKNIFTY was in sync with 1.2% gain. VIX was down 3.5%. Advance Decline ratio was neutral - 26 to 24. Open Interest showing the same buildup for the range 10500-10600 to 11000 Not much to conclude today. The larger picture does not change. I’ll trade when NIFTY breaks out of the 10550-10820 range. Some intra day short opportunity only below 10640.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 10In my yesterdays post I had said Even though the chart looks good, I have a bearish bias for tomorrow and Monday. This is mostly because the whipsaw we saw yesterday. If NIFTY manages to close above the new high by Monday, I’ll be wrong again. I’ll not short, but mostly observe if it crosses 10850. I’ll short NIFTY below 10730. Nothing changes in my view and I carry forward my view to Monday. My trades I did not trade today, as none of the levels I was watching were clearly broken. Observations for the day NIFTY sideways for the day, ultimately closed 0.42% down. BANK NIFTY down 2.22%. VIX mildly up 0.12% Advance Decline ratio is 14 to 36, in line with negative closing. Option data tilted for mild bearish bias. Overall, NIFTY did not do badly because of Reliance. BANK NIFTY trend is near bearish, NIFTY sideways for near term. NIFTY’s consolidation can be an intermediate topping pattern or consolidation. It can be confirmed only when NIFTY closes below 10560 levels. I’ll do a detailed post over the weekend on my next week’s view. Have a great weekend ahead! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My July 9 Post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 30My yeterdays trading Log Nothing to mention. Consolidation in the range. Neither of the trading range boundaries were broken today. My Trades today I did not trade today. My Observations for the day 1. 4th consolidation candle. NIFTY closed -0.10%. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 0.05%. 3. VIX at 29.12. 4. Advance Decline 20 to 29. 5. FII data turned bearish yesterday. 6. Option data suggesting downward bias. 10000-10400 is the range market players are expecting for this expiry. My view for tomorrow 1. As i have said in my weekly view, I am more on bearish side and I think this consolidation will result in break of 10240. 2. I'll short on break of 10240. My bearish bias is wrong if NIFTY closes above 10420. If NIFTY has strength of its own, today could have been the day when NIFTY climbs and breaks above 10400. It could not. It had similar opportunity on downside on Monday. Overall NIFTY had 3 touchdowns to 10240 level, next touch should probably breakdown. Hence I'm taking that view.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 29My weekly view My trades today 1. I did not trade today. Observations for the day 1. Typical consolidation day on gap down.NIFTY closed -0.68%. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -1.08%. 3. VIX gained 0.61%. There was fear of greater slide down in the morning session, but this did not happen. 4. NSE Advance Decline is 38 to 12. My view for tomorrow 1. Today's price action does not change my view. Overall it is getting tight consolidation range. Flag formation is visible on minutes and hour chart. If NIFTY breaks above 10400, the bias will shift and it will try to chase the recent high of 10550. If it breaks 10224, it may drift. 2. I'll wait for this breakout to happen before I update my view.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 26In my trade review post I had said, 1. NIFTY consolidated after the fall. To assess, if the fall on Wednesday was corrective or start of a new swing, I need to wait till Friday. 2. Friday, if NIFTY continues downwards journey, It may quickly succumb to pressure and move towards 10050 area soon. Closing above 10390 again, will confirm the consolidation. 3. I have a bearish bias for Friday and I will not take any trades on long side unless I see NIFTY trading above 10390. For point 1, it is now looking like corrective action of previous swing. I was wrong on bearish bias, but I do not change it yet as 10390 level is not crossed today. My trades today I did not trade today. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed 0.91% up. It made higher high and higher low. 2. BANK NIFTY 0.40% up. For yesterday and today BANKNIFTY lagged NIFTY. 3. INDIA VIX 3.34% down. 4. Advance Decline ratio 28 to 21. 5. Open Interest data mildly bearish. 10500 is the resistance level traders are betting on. From price action today. 1. NIFTY is still in consolidation. For now, it may try and go towards 10500, I am not sure how far it'll travel. 2. Till NIFTY breaks the new range 10180 - 10550, I assume this as sideways market. I plan to do detailed post over the weekend for next week's view. Have a great weekend!
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY June 25I'll review what I anticipated in my post yesterday 1. Today's price action can be a swing high formation. We need to wait till Friday EOD to confirm. 2. Overall now I assume the trend is consolidation with bearish bias. 10500-10600 is significant resistance, even if gets retested, it will be hard to break it quickly. 3. Tomorrow, being expiry, I dont have idea how it'll go. NIFTY may consolidate a little or fall further towards 10200 levels. I am assuming rather broad range of 10180-10430 I did not make clear statement, but overall action looks consolidation as trend dictated. My trades today I did not trade today. Mostly because of many trading moves we had so far this month. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY moved in the relatively narrow range this expiry. It closed -0.16% lower. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 0.37% higher. 3. VIX is below 30. It gained 0.51% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 16 to 34. That is bad. 5. Option chain again showing bias towards consolidation in range of 10000-10500. My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY consolidated after the fall. To assess, if the fall on Wednesday was corrective or start of a new swing, I need to wait till Friday. 2. Friday, if NIFTY continues downwards journey, It may quickly succumb to pressure and move towards 10050 area soon. Closing above 10390 again, will confirm the consolidation. 3. I have a bearish bias for Friday and I will not take any trades on long side unless I see NIFTY trading above 10390. Overall, I see today and next 2-3 sessions as key price action sessions. On weekly chart, I observe clear contraction of price range. This may lead to breakout/ breakdown soon. And usually this time break (which will likely to be on downside) has higher chances of leading to good swing move./b]
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 17In my yesterdays post, I had said 1) Considering the volatile moves for last 3 sessions, I think we may have relatively calm market for next two sessions. 2) I maintain my bias , consolidation with little bullishness. 3) The current situation is NIFTY has formed support around 9600-9700 region. And it has multiple resistances from 10000-10300. The move from 10000-10300 will be choppy. Review : NIFTY had relatively lower swings than previous two sessions. Neutral candle, consolidation. My Trades I did not take any trades, mainly because I was not clear about the levels I want to trade and near 9700 - 1000 is a narrow zone, where volatile moves, up down happening which may be difficult to catch. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY formed indecision candle inside the large move of Friday. NIFTY lost 0.33%. 2. BANKNIFTY lost 0.47%. 3. VIX rose 1.18% 4. Advance Decline ratio for NIFTY is 22 to 28. 5. Tomorrow is expiry day. 9500 to 10000 is the range what NIFTY option traders are expecting. 10000, 10200 are resistance. My View for tomorrow, June 17, 2020. 1. This is more looking like consolidation of upswing which happened from 8800. Since context swing is up, we have to assume the breakout is more likely on upside. 2. Again 10000 is the level, break of which can start this up move. This can happen tomorrow or Friday. 3. I plan to trade with positive bias and avoid creating short positions as long as NIFTY is trading above 9810-9830 levels. I'll change my bias when NIFTY closes below 9810. Completely bearish below 9600. Reference: My yesteradys post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 10In my trade log yesterday, I had said 1. NIFTY is in consolidation. It is likely to see some downside tomorrow as well. 2. This is not a simple dip, This is likely to form range. 3. 10300 is firm resistance, any upside is possible only above that. 4. NIFTY is now searching for lower end of the range - first candidate for that is last swing low 9950. This is view is not yet changed. I am going to assume range of 9950-10300, till it is broken on either side. My trades today. I did not take any trades, as none of the levels in my plan were hit, also NIFTY did not move in the direction I assumed. Observations for the day 1. NIFTY formed the inside candle. It closed with 0.69% positive. 2. BANK NIFTY did better with 1.81% gain. 3. VIX fell 2.5%. 4. Advance Decline slightly in favour of advance in broader market and NIFTY. Some Ideas for tomorrows session 1. Today was a typical consolidation day. Nothing much to read about for me. 2. IF NIFTY goes below 10020 tomorrow, it has not still found lower boundary of the range. 3. If NIFTY moves fast towards 10280, there could be failure of that bounce in 10300 area. 4. I assume 9900 to 10300 range for tomorrows expiry.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 13I did not trade today. I was mostly watching my 9500 CALL position, which is still open. I had said 1. NIFTY has touched the 9050 region and reversed. It may now try to retrace and go towards 9440, upper bound. This may be successful or not. 2. From overall price action today, buying the dip in NIFTY or BANK NIFTY would be good strategy for coming days. Given to big bang stimulus announcement, NIFTY did not take time to touch the other extreme of the range, but It could not sustain above the range. NIFTY Opened gap up above 9550 and fell immediately to 9350. This is either failure and back to large trading range of 9050 - 9450 or may be new range is in the forming. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY opened gap up and sustained the gap. 3. VIX rose little over a percent. 5. BANK Nifty outperformed. I read this action as 1. Somewhere market players are doing the maths and estimating that the impact of stimulus in the short term is minimal. Otherwise the range breakout would have been sustained. 2. The series of FM conferences will create some sector specific action, but overall stimulus bounce is behind us. 3. Since we are on the top bound of the range, the obvious bias is to again short till we breakout the range, that is close above 9450.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
EURUSD - Expecting a turn around 1.1310Price fell nicely as expected. We should see price turn back up around the 261.8% level. The following move might be a simple ABC correction, as labeled, or we might start to rally higher again. In any case, there is no clear possible trade here, for now, there are a lot of easier ones, trade them. I suggest cross pairs. PS : This chart was posted on my Telegram Channel a few days ago. Subscribe to have future charts right away (it's free!) Don't hesitate to like, share my ideas and Subscribe to my FREE Telegram Channel for more updates t.me
by ElliottWaveBelgium
AUDUSD idea update See chart notes for why we're still in a Bearish shape and why I'm not looking for an entry anymore. Yes, retests are nice areas to get in. No, I don't care for wide stops nor do I have the patience to sit through vague ideas finding clarity. We could easily come back down to the pink zone and then bounce back up. D1 is hugely important for healthy analysis. And if you've gotten into a strong move, managing the trade for a longer term move on the D1 is a great strategy to minimize your trigger happiness. I need one more step of analysis THEN look for trades on my timeframe. So please don't take blind entries -- bias does not equal "get into a position".
by structuredtrader
Battling Pitchforks Put ETH in a No Trade Zone Previous analysis /position: Wasn’t feeling good about long position and moved stop loss to breakeven. Patterns: Battling pitchforks. h&s + bear flag on 1 hour Horizontal support and resistance: R: $465.32 S: $452.21 ETHUSDSHORTS: Nearing the all time lows, making a short feel very attractive 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -1.29% 26: -2.97% and angling down 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -8.24% 128: -16.45% and just made bearish cross on 1h. Finding resistance at the 50 day MA. FIB’s: 0.382 = $560.88 0.236 = $359 Candlestick analysis: 12h shooting star called the top Ichimoku Cloud: Back below kijun on daily. Still a c clamp. Recently fell out of bearish 12h cloud. TD’ Sequential: Combo 13 on the daily. Green 1 on the weekly Visible Range: Support cluster at $360. Showing very little resistance above. When looking at 2018 it shows $429 -$470 as largest volume and very little until $660 Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band on daily, just fell through MA. Just found resistance at 3d MA. Trendline: Still supporting hyperwave that connects the top of 5/3/17 to 7/4/18 Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: 4 down fractals at/around $412. Recently broke 2 up fractals. Next one is $554. On Balance Volume: Has remained flat throughout this bear market. Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI: 46.97 Stoch: 52.71 Sentiment is a sell - strong sell (counter trade). Conclusion: No trade zone between $400 - $512. If it breaks above $512 then I expect it to rally to $680. Setting a stop entry at $516 would be a high probability long. If it breaks down below $400 then I would expect a move to $275 - $300. Setting a stop entry to at $394 would be a high probability short sale. I would not open a short right now due to the combo 13 on the daily chart.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC and The iH&SThis is a small guide and clarification on Key points how to identify and trade a Head and Shoulders pattern. First off A head and shoulders is made of three key components A) Left shoulder B) Head C) Right shoulder In this formation at the attempt of reversal from BTC 5.40% , we can clearly identify these components. Some counter arguments have sprouted around where they are saying this is an invalid H&S pattern because the Head is not just a V shape but rather a double bottom . This argument is easily solved by knowing that there are COMPLEX H&S patterns. Complex H&S patterns involve instances where we have double shoulders on each side, or a double head ( Current Case ) With that in mind, Let's Analyse the volume on each peak. Left shoulder low was of significant volume . The downtrend was still intact and sell pressure was still the majority. Head low had lower volume thus signaling that sell pressure is diminishing. At this point the downtrend is broken and we have a break of recent low. Right shoulder low has even lower volume than head which further assures the pattern. One major thing to keep in mind when trading this pattern is, UNTIL the Neckline is broken, the pattern is NOT complete. Buying before break of Neckline is premature buying in attempt to get a better position but a riskier bet since the pattern CAN FAIL at this point. We can see there were many premature buyers with the right shoulder. This often happens when the price meets the low of the left shoulder. Until we break the neckline this pattern is unconfirmed and can fail. However the volume along with the lows seems promising as diminishing sell pressure is happening. The next important part for complete H&S should be a massive influx in volume upon breakout, and unfortunately right now the volume is still very low even in this Daily candle showing us that there is not the needed power to complete the H&S . Best Trades here are: Short at neckline with SL above neckline Long on neckline breakout with very high volume OR Neckline drawback. Till these criterias are met any trade right now is a gamble on future prediction, Happy trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Dyviumld
Bitstamp: #BTCUSD AnalysisObserving where the #BTCUSD is likely to bottom. The wedge in the chart shown maybe diverted to be something totally different in the coming couple of months. For now, however, the support and resistance boundry lines are valid till proven otherwise. current support zone 5,500 - 6000 but no #entry should be made before #downtrend confirmed turnaround. I really need to note that as a #trendfollowing trader, I follow the trend after it is confirmed/valid. Prediction for the sake of thinking only and not to overanalyze the situation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by tatrader77
Btc will go up or down..Don't trade on anyones chart at the moment. There is really no clear direction imo and anyone giving 1 path BTC will follow is doing nothing but guessing or comparing bitcoin to previous years. We are in a weird zone where both sides aren't showing too much strength, Bears just a little stronger at time of making chart. -Purple line above may be used as resistance. -3 yellowish lines are all support / bounce areas -Purple line below can be potential support if Bitcoin falls that low.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by tokeylokey66
1