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November2023

11/29 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Today's market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with global markets showing modest gains. The anticipation of the COP28 Climate Change Conference in Dubai is influencing global sentiment, and the US Index Futures are trending upwards. Notably, crude oil is experiencing a strong surge. 🔄 Recap The S&P 500 Index Futures experienced a volatile day, initially surging to a high of 4597, then retracted to the 4555 level. This fluctuation indicates an ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish forces in the market. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The COP28 Climate Change Conference is commencing in Dubai, potentially influencing energy and environmental sector stocks. 🔍 Key Structures 4618: A critical upper trendline connecting key historical highs. 4573-75: A pivotal resistance zone that has capped recent rallies. 4555: Strong support level, consistently tested over the past week. 4534-36: Key support zone, previously a significant resistance. 4508, 4489-93, 4446, 4418: Other notable support levels to watch. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major) 4547, 4542 4534-36 (major) 4525, 4514 4508 (major) 4489-93 (major) 4484, 4473 (major) 4462, 4452, 4445 (major) 4437, 4430, 4424, 4418 (major) 4410, 4399, 4375-80 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4563, 4573-75 (major) 4580, 4588-90, 4597 4609 (major), 4618 (major) 4622, 4628-31 (major) 4642, 4648 (major), 4658 (major) 4668-70, 4681, 4692, 4700-05 (major) 4716, 4720, 4731 (major), 4741, 4754 (major) 📝 Trading Plan For Bulls: Focus on the 4556 and 4534-36 support levels. A rebound from these levels could indicate bullish momentum, offering opportunities to enter long positions. For Bears: Watch for a breakdown below 4556. A sustained move below this level could signal bearish momentum, with potential short opportunities at major resistance levels. 💡 Wrap Up With mixed signals and a failed breakout, today's market presents a challenging environment. Traders should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on key support and resistance levels for guidance. As always, maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy is crucial. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
2
11/28 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Current indicators suggest a cautious approach, with a lean towards a short-term bearish outlook amid mixed global signals. 🔄 Recap In today’s issue, we delve into the performance of S&P 500 Futures, analyzing the recent consolidation phase after a notable rally. We examine the tight trading range that has defined the market over the past week, emphasizing caution in these choppy conditions. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Hawkish Fed Governor Waller turns dovish saying rates are in the right place. European CPI inflation reports coming in lower than expected. 🔍 Key Structures We've identified crucial structures ranging from 4620-25 as a broad upside target, down to 4418, a pivotal bull market trendline. The ES is currently consolidating under 4580, indicating a potential move on the horizon. 📉 Support Levels 4536: A prominent horizontal zone, critical for maintaining the current bullish structure. 4508: A support level that played a significant role in sustaining the rally after the November CPI release. 4485: A pivotal support-turned-resistance that could be retested. 4445-37: Key support zones that could act as a staging ground for future rallies. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-25: A major trendline target, marking the intersection of historical highs. 4580: A strong resistance level that has been tested and held thus far. 4565: An immediate resistance that could dictate short-term price action. 📝 Trading Plan For Wednesday’s session, we focus on key support and resistance levels. The plan includes monitoring for base building above 4555 for a possible move to 4580+ while also considering short positions on breakdowns below key support levels. 💡 Wrap Up The market remains in a tight balance, with a persistent bullish undertone. It’s crucial to navigate this choppy phase with a disciplined trading plan, recognizing the potential for both upward continuation and downward reversal. Stay tuned for updates on major catalysts that may impact the market dynamics. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/27 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Recap Today's newsletter provides a comprehensive look at the current market situation, emphasizing the S&P 500 Futures and the essential strategies for upcoming trading sessions. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed Europe: Down a bit US Index Futures: Down slightly Crude Oil: Up a bit Dollar: Down slightly Yields: Up slightly Crypto: Up slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Saudi Arabia is actively seeking allies for a production cut before the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday. 🔍 Key Structures A significant breakout from a 4-month downtrend channel occurred on November 14th, influenced by CPI data. This bullish setup has sustained its momentum, with minor sell-offs being quickly absorbed. The S&P 500 Futures are currently consolidating under 4580, hinting at a potential upcoming move. 📉 Support Levels 4536-42: Crucial zone, acting as a major support. 4507: Notable support from mid-November. 4491-95: Key level from September's downturn. 4445, 4436-32: Secondary support zones. 4385: Represents the lower bound of a potential pullback. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-22: Ultimate target, connecting historical highs. 4580: Recent resistance, tested last Wednesday. 4565: Immediate resistance zone. 📝 Trading Plan Remain alert for support levels, especially around 4555 and 4535, to hold for continuing the bullish trend. Key resistances at 4580 and above may offer opportunities for adding strength. Watch for breakdowns below 4535 as a sign of a potential trend reversal. 💡 Wrap Up The current market condition is a blend of strong bullish trends and consolidation phases. It's vital to stay aware of major support and resistance levels and adapt strategies accordingly. The market remains in a delicate balance, with potential for both continuation and reversal of the current trend. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/25 Trading Plan - Friday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap In the past month, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) has demonstrated an unusual bullish trend, closing four consecutive green weeks. Notably, after breaking out of a downtrend channel on November 14th at 4425, the market has largely maintained an upward trajectory. This breakout signifies a classic technical analysis pattern typically seen in 4-month downtrend reversals. 🔍 Key Structures 4620: Represents a significant trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 most recent high. 4577-80: A major resistance level encountered back in late August/early September. 4536-42: A critical horizontal zone that served as key resistance during the summer of 2023. Other Notable Levels: 4507, 4488-90, 4445, 4436-32, 4408-11, and 4390. 📉 Support Levels The primary support levels to monitor include 4507, 4488-90, 4445, 4436-32, and the critical 4408-11 zone. These levels have historically played a significant role in the market's movement and will be crucial in determining future trends. 📈 Resistance Levels Key resistance levels to watch are 4577-80, the upper zone of 4536-42, and the overarching 4620 level. These levels have previously acted as barriers to upward movement and will be critical in assessing the potential for continued bullish momentum. 📝 Trading Plan Supports to Monitor: 4554, 4549, 4542, 4535, and other major supports down to 4408-11. Resistances for Potential Reversal: 4565, 4572, 4580, and upwards to 4620. Bull Case Scenario: Maintaining above 4542-36 on dips to continue the bullish trend. Bear Case Scenario: A breakdown below 4536-42 could signal a short-term bearish shift. 🔚 Wrap Up As the market transitions from the Thanksgiving holiday, traders should be prepared for potential volatility and abrupt changes in direction. The emphasis should remain on trading within pre-planned, high-conviction zones and reacting to market shifts rather than predicting them. The approach for Monday hinges on the market's ability to sustain support levels, particularly around 4542-36, to continue the upward trend or signal a bearish reversal if these levels fail. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/22 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap The S&P 500 futures (ES) are continuing the seasonally bullish trend of Thanksgiving week. Recently, ES exhibited a bullish triangle pattern around the 4536 resistance, leading to a breakout that aligns with our analysis from the last newsletter. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Trending Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down significantly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Four-day ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Drama ahead of the OPEC meeting after a sudden reversal of its cancellation. Decrease in Thanksgiving dinner costs by 4.5% from last year. 🔍 Key Structures 4622: Core trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. 4577-80: A major resistance level observed in late August. 4543-35: A critical resistance level, now the most important zone to hold. 4521-18: A vital support level that has been crucial in the recent rally. 4488: An important zone for back-testing as the first major support down. 4445-47: A key back-test support level post-CPI day breakout. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4556-58, 4542, 4536-38, 4521, 4488, 4446-48, 4400-4405. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4577-80, 4607-09, 4623, 4658. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Watch 4536-38 for potential bearish indications. Long-Term Strategy: Bulls remain in control; maintain focus on key supports for signs of sustained upward movement. 🔚 Wrap Up As we get closer to Thanksgiving, market strength is typical, yet vigilance is essential. Despite predominantly green indicators this month, cautious trading is advised due to potential shifts during the holiday week and overhead supply considerations. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/21 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Todays price action highlighted the power of technical analysis, with ES breaking out of a 4-month downtrend post-CPI, rallying 120 points. The market formed a bullish triangle pattern last week, which led to a breakout and an upward trajectory today, aligning perfectly with our analysis from the last newsletter. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts FOMC meeting minutes and NVDA earnings later today. 🔍 Key Structures 4622: Core trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. 4577-80: A major resistance level observed in late August. 4543-35: A critical resistance level, now the most important zone to hold. 4521-18: A vital support level that has been crucial in the recent rally. 4488: An important zone for back-testing as the first major support down. 4445-47: A key back-test support level post-CPI day breakout. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4556-58, 4542, 4536-38, 4521, 4488, 4446-48, 4400-4405. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4577-80, 4607-09, 4623, 4658. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Watch 4536-38 for potential bearish indications. Long-Term Strategy: Bulls remain in control; maintain focus on key supports for signs of sustained upward movement. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach Thanksgiving, typically strong for the market, we need to stay vigilant for potential shifts. The market's resilience with only one red day this month suggests strong bullish control, but caution is advised due to the holiday trading week and potential overhead supply. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/20 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Last week's newsletter accurately predicted the market's behavior with the CPI acting as a catalyst for a significant breakout from the core downtrend channel. This led to a substantial uptrend, marking one of the year's pivotal trades. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A significant event in the global market is the victory of the Libertarian candidate in the resource-rich presidential election of Argentina. This could have far-reaching impacts on global trade and market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures Upper Resistance: 4623, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. Notable Resistance Zones: 4580, 4556, 4535-43. Significant Supports: 4485-88, 4445, 4405. 📉 Support Levels Major: 3502, 3788, 3839 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4051, 4180, 4209. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Monitor 4514-07 as critical support. A break below could signal a short-term bearish trend. Long-Term Strategy: Maintain focus on the uptrend as long as the market stays above 4405, the core downtrend channel from August. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is showing signs of consolidation after a significant uptrend. Key levels to watch are 4514-07 for potential downward movements and 4535 for resistance. The market remains in a strong uptrend, and any pullbacks should be considered within this context. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/17 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed performance. Europe: Strong upward movement. US Index Futures: Mixed strength but generally up. Crude Oil: Price increase. Dollar: Slight decrease. Yields: Marginal decline. Crypto: Mixed trends. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Yesterday, President Biden signed a temporary government spending bill, preventing a government shutdown. This move has implications for market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures The ES has entered a post-trend consolidation phase, with key structures ranging from 4507-10 to 4543+. The market is currently in "Mode 2," characterized by basing, chop, and pattern formation. The current pattern forms a bull flag with a 60% upside resolution bias. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4507, 4484-86, 4445, 4418-24. Minor: Various levels between 4507 and 4418. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4625, 4556-58, 4543. Minor: Levels ranging up to 4543. 📝 Trading Plan Supports: Focus on 4520, 4514, 4507-10, 4485-87, 4444. Resistances: Watch for 4524, 4535, 4543, 4557. Bull Case: Maintain control above 4507 for an upward trend. Bear Case: A breakdown below 4507 could lead to a short-term dip. Strategy: Emphasis on level-to-level trading within the 4507-4535 range. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach today's trading session, the focus remains on the 4507-10 support level and the 4535-40 resistance zone. With the market in a consolidation phase, traders should be prepared for choppiness and focus on level-to-level trading strategies. Remember, today is OPEX Friday, so expect pinning around key levels and limited follow-through on movements. Stay informed, trade smart, and let's navigate the markets together. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/16 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Biden-Xi meeting concluded with a mix of agreements and tensions, impacting global market sentiments. Notably, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) showcased remarkable resilience this November, defying the typical seasonal trends. 🔍 Key Structures 4625: Upper green line, connecting January 2022 and August 2022 highs. 4556-59: Channel resistance and notable September area. 4543: A recurrent resistance level in June and July 2023. 4518: Trend line resistance from early to mid-September. 4442-45: Post-CPI rally's critical support level. 4418-25: Breakout point of the downtrend channel from August 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4507-10, 4496, 4484-86, 4476, 4462, 4452, 4442-45, 4430, 4426, 4418, 4413, 4403, 4390, 4385, 4375, 4366, 4353, 4348, 4341, 4333-35. 📈 Resistance Levels 4518, 4525, 4535, 4543, 4549, 4558-60, 4566, 4577, 4580, 4587-90, 4596, 4610, 4625, 4632, 4638-42, 4648, 4658, 4667, 4674, 4687, 4699, 4705, 4722, 4734, 4744. 📝 Trading Plan Thursday's focus is on pivotal support at 4507-10. A break below could initiate a rare red day, while holding this level might extend the bullish trend. Resistance levels to watch include 4543 and 4558-60. Trade management will be strictly algorithmic, focusing on level-to-level execution without emotional bias. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is currently in a post-trend consolidation phase, requiring traders to be adaptable. Key points for Thursday include maintaining support at 4507-10 and watching for potential resistance challenges. The long-term bullish outlook remains as long as the breakout level at 4418-24 holds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/15 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap In our previous newsletter titled “SPX Is About To Break Out A 4 Month Downtrend”, we anticipated a significant move in the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES). On Monday, ES demonstrated a breakout from its 4-month trendline channel, driven by CPI, resulting in an impressive 100-point surge. This movement aligns with historical trends observed in November 2022. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts President Biden and President Xi are set to meet today at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. Their four-hour discussion will cover bilateral and global issues. The US House has passed a stop-gap spending bill to fund the government until January 19, preventing a government shutdown. The bill is expected to pass in the Senate. 🔍 Key Structures The ES experienced a breakout from its major downtrend channel that originated in August. This breakout is now the primary focus for potential future movements. We observed a bullish “megaphone” pattern formation on Monday, which set the stage for the current surge. 📉 Support Levels 4484: A crucial support zone, previously acting as resistance. 4439-40: A pivotal level, marking the liftoff point for today's CPI-driven movement. 4418-25: The breakout point from the downtrend channel and a significant area for dip buying. 📈 Resistance Levels 4543: A major resistance level, previously encountered in mid-2023. 4517: Trendline resistance connecting recent lows. 4596: Though not identified in our latest analysis, this level remains a key watchpoint for potential resistance. 📝 Trading Plan Continue monitoring key support and resistance levels. Emphasize the importance of holding runners in trading strategies. Focus on level-to-level trading, staying alert for breakout points and channel resistances. 🔚 Wrap Up Today's market movement, especially with CPI as the catalyst, highlights the importance of understanding technical structures like channels and the strategy of holding runners. As we continue to monitor these developments, our approach remains agile, focusing on data-driven insights for informed trading decisions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/14 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap In yesterday's trading, ES finally bumped into resistance after an 80 point monster short squeeze on Friday. The level of resistance was no coincidence, as it was noted last week that we were closing just above the most significant resistance in ES at 4418-25. This level is the core downtrend line from the August high. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Exploding higher 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints below expectations. Today is CPI day, which is often one of the most volatile, random, and difficult-to-trade days of the year for ES. Key Structures Key structures to note include 4484, 4418-25, 4400-05, 4385, and 4330-36. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-24 (major), 4410, 4400-05 (major), 4386 (major), 4375, 4366 (major), 4360, 4348, 4335 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302, 4290-95 (major), 4279, 4268, 4250-55 (major), 4243, 4233, 4225, 4213 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439 (major), 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-85 (major), 4496, 4507 (major), 4514, 4517 (major), 4525, 4534, 4543 (major), 4550, 4557-60 (major), 4566, 4574 (major), 4581, 4591 (major), 4596, 4610-14 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the megaphone discussed above holding at 4400-05. The bear case generally begins on the failure of 4400-05. On a normal day, there would be a possible breakdown short here, but on CPI day it is very hard to execute without getting trapped. Wrap Up CPI day, expect traps, and failed breakdowns are your best friend. If you over-trade on these days, you are almost certain to lose. Predictability on CPI days is essentially 0, so I can only provide a lean based purely on the structure. My general lean is the megaphone fills out, then plays out. This would look something like defend 4418-24, 4400 lowest, then test 4439, then higher into 4460-63. Megaphone fails at 4400, it gives bears a chance at a proper pullback finally. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/13 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week, we saw a major squeeze to the 4418-24 upside target. Triggers for this squeeze were a failed breakdown of the 4377-85 level, which was then backtested and cleared on the second attempt, leading to a rapid squeeze higher. The largest, fastest moves often come from failed breakdowns, and this system is built around exploiting this edge. The RSI provided "fuel" for the squeeze, suggesting substantial energy already available for another rally. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down very slightly 💵 Dollar: Up very slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts Moody’s changed the outlook on US government debt from stable to negative. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and APEC Economic Leaders’ Week is underway in San Francisco all week. Key Structures The notable structures and levels from highest to lowest include: 4418-25, 4399, 4381-86, 4330-36, and 4302. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. They are not predictive, but will form the basis of level-to-level trading. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-25 (major), 4412, 4399 (major), 4394, 4381-86 (major), 4367,4355, 4347 (major), 4331-36 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302 (major), 4290 (major), 4279, 4268, 4255-58 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4460-63 (major), 4472, 4480-85 (major), 4497 (major), 4502, 4514 (major), 4525-28, 4534, 4540-43 (major). Trading Plan Today, the plan is to continue holding the long runner from high 4380s and allow for price discovery to unfold. If we begin a dip today, 4418-25 is first support down. If last Friday’s late-day breakout was a trap, we could sell quite hard starting today. If 4385 fails, we will sell deeply. All shorts are high risk knife catches. Wrap Up In summary, after last Friday's monster rally, it's time to step back and let price discovery reveal what is next. As long as 4418-24 holds, we can continue up the levels to 4439, 4445, 4460-63. If 4418-24 fails, we likely need to dip to 4399 at least. We get a proper leg down only when 4381-86 fails. The aim is not to catch every move, but to catch the portion of the daily moves that correspond to your edge and your pre-planned setups. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/12 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap After an incredible eight-day green streak for ES, we saw a shift on Wednesday as the consolidation range finally broke down, triggering shorts. This was the first real pullback since October 27th, marking the first red day after eight green ones. This week's price action has normalized, and we've settled back into more typical price action, with the 85/15 ratio generally holding before an afternoon trend to the downside yesterday. The Markets Overnight “We are not confident we've achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate.” Jay Powell in a prepared statement for yesterday’s global economy panel discussion. Some US Treasury market settlements were affected by ransomware attacks. Major Global Catalysts 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up Key Structures The core structures/big zones to engage include 4425, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4356, 4347, 4327-35 (major), 4314, 4306-4302 (major), 4290, 4280-83 (major), 4268, 4255-58 (major), 4242 (major), 4231, 4221, 4214 (major). Resistance Levels 4366, 4377 (major), 4386, 4399 (major), 4412, 4418-25 (major), 4430, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4462-65 (major), 4477, 4483 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525, 4530-33 (major), 4542 (major). Trading Plan The general lean is that we can defend 4377, head down to 4336-27, and then bounce. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. Any bear case mentioned here is purely short-term. Generally, though, the bear case is in play as long as we are below 4377ish. As long as it is below it/as long as it holds on any backtest, ES likely dips to 4335-27. Wrap Up It's the first red day after eight green days, but bulls remain firmly in control, and the RSI suggests energy for a squeeze with the right trigger. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. As always, the solution to trading the above action is reactive level-to-level trading. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/9 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap In Tuesday's newsletter, we discussed the historic rally of the ES, which saw 7 green days in a row for the first time since November 2021. While there was a slight dip yesterday, this “red day” was quickly bought up, with ES closing only marginally off the recent highs. The extreme magnitude of this recent 8-day rally was demonstrated by yesterday’s 31-point micro-dip, the largest we have seen since October 27th. ES has spent since Friday in consolidation mode around the 4385 level, likely producing another large move. The Markets Overnight Eurozone finance ministers meet for the Economic and Financial Affairs Council. The council coordinates the economic policies of the 28 member states, and their initiatives and decisions can have a widespread effect on the Eurozone's economic health. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in San Francisco today in an effort to improve relations and economic ties. Major Global Catalysts 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Key Structures The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels Several big-picture structures/levels are notable from highest to lowest. These include 4425-30, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These structures are not comprehensive, but they provide some major ones to note. Resistance Levels 4398 (major), 4410, 4418, 4425-30 (major), 4439, 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-84 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525-30 (major), 4537, 4543 (major). Trading Plan For today, there are two main scenarios to consider. In the bull case, we expect the ES to continue defending 4385 4375 supports, then push higher up the levels to 4410, 4418, 4425-30. In the bear case, we would need to see a failure at 4375-78, which could trigger the significant unwind many are waiting on. As long as above there, though, we continue basing for further upside. Wrap Up We remain in extreme uptrend mode. My general lean is as long as 4386-88, 4375-78 continues to hold on dips, and the rally continues with 4410, 4418, and 4425-30 magnets. If 4375 fails, we can finally begin a pullback. It should be substantial when it triggers. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/7 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap The market has seen an extraordinary seven green days in a row, with ES not only recording its largest single green week since the first week of November last year but also forming a clear bull flag. Yesterday was largely a consolidation day, but it continued the green streak, making it an even rarer six in a row. Today, we tested 4368-66 in the morning, rallied to 4399 minimum, and then rejected there. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down Key Structures The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4387-85 (major), 4376, 4367-71 (major), 4356, 4343, 4338 (major), 4326, 4321 (major), 4314, 4302-97 (major), 4290, 4279 (major), 4268, 4258, 4253 (major), 4243 (major), 4230, 4215 (major), 4205. Resistance Levels 4399-4401 (major), 4412, 4418, 4424 (major), 4430-32 (major), 4440, 4447-52 (major), 4462 (major), 4473, 4481-84, 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4520, 4525, 4532 (major). Trading Plan The bull case for tomorrow depends on the bull flag continuing to defend, meaning bulls want to hold above 4385, 4367-72 at the absolute lowest. If these hold, ES may have one pop left in it, with the obvious magnet being 4424, 4430-32. The bear case generally begins on the fail of 4367-72, with 4385 failure being an initial warning shot. Wrap Up In summary, any upside from here is purely a bonus. Setups are quite scarce up here, but the general lean is that as long as the bull flag defends (4385, 4367-72) ES can see a pop up the levels to 4424, 4430-32 then try a dip. If 4367-72 fails, we dip direct. In higher, we could expect some short-term consolidation to build up energy before heading higher. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/6 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap We witnessed an impressive stock market rally, marking the largest green week since the inception of the current bull market in October 2022, and a record not seen since November 2020. Every trading day experienced significant gains, driven by a strategic short squeeze following a preceding sell-off period. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Near unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirm commitment to oil production cuts. (link) KOSPI exchange index soars 5.6% after South Korea bans short selling until June 2024. Key Structures The pivot began post eight consecutive red days, fueling the rally through a significant buying pressure indicative of a short squeeze—a momentum mirrored only by the market's robust ascent since October 2022. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Continued strength as we head into next week would further solidify the case that this bull market still has room to run. Support Levels Major support levels: 4378, 4367-65, 4336, 4313, 4290, 4279, 4250-53, 4236, 4213-16, 4184. Minor support levels: 3929, 4060, 3798, 4453, 3536. Supports at 4367-65 are pivotal, having been tested last Friday, and now presenting potential weakness. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels: 4385, 4398, 4418-24, 4440, 4485-89, 4496, 4508, 4514, 4537-42. Minor support levels: 4135, 4020, 3906, 4595, 4480 The major resistance zones at 4418-24 could be critical for establishing the market's short-term trajectory. Trading Plan The initial support to watch is at 4367-65. A break below could signal a pullback, with 4335-38 as the next critical juncture for potential long positions, reflecting last Friday's breakout point. Wrap Up While the market's direction seems to sustain its ascent, caution is paramount given the unpredictable nature of this 'melt-up' phase. Watch for a potential dip to 4335 as a litmus test for the market's strength; a failure here may precipitate a retrace towards 4290. Maintain a reactive stance, ready to adapt to the market's signals. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/3 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap In the past week, we saw an impressive rally of 180 points, marking one of the best trades of the year. This was largely due to a textbook failed breakdown bottoming setup triggering on Sunday evening, demonstrating the power of the short squeeze. The rally continued for four days straight, reaching a peak at a major pivot point of 4336. This marked the largest rally since the broad correction began on August 1st. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Down Major Global Catalysts Non-Farm Payrolls come in light showing a slower jobs market Key Structures The market's structure is currently framed by several crucial levels that demand attention. The most pivotal of these is the 4135 level, which has emerged as a significant point of contention between buyers and sellers. This level served as a major resistance point and is now a key marker to watch for potential support. The 4020 level is also of note, having previously acted as resistance. As the market dynamics evolve, this level could be tested again, potentially reinforcing or invalidating its role as a resistance-turned-support. Moreover, the levels of 3928 and 3797 are essential to monitor as they have provided substantial support in the past. Any movements towards these levels could indicate a market seeking stability. The market has reached an important juncture today, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Continued strength as we head into next week would further solidify the case that this bull market still has room to run. Support Levels The foundations of our market are clearly defined by critical support levels. Our analysis highlights key supports at 3928, 4059, and 3797. These levels are pivotal, having been tested and held firm under market pressure, signifying their importance. It's imperative for investors to monitor the 4452 and 3535 zones as these levels have also served as significant support. Their role in historical price movements has been substantial, and they remain crucial for the market's underpinning. Resistance Levels As for the upside barriers, our analysis identifies resistance at 4135 and 4020. Overcoming these levels could signal strength and a potential bullish continuation. The minor resistance levels at 3905, 4594, and 4479 also pose hurdles for price advances and should be watched closely by traders. Trading Plan In the context of recent market movements, it is paramount to focus on preserving capital. The period following a significant price trend is often marked by uncertainty, making it a challenging trading environment. Caution is advised, with a preference for observing the market's reaction to key levels rather than committing to new positions. Wrap Up After a period of gains, the market appears to be entering a consolidation phase. Although the momentum is with the bulls, there is a palpable risk of pullback. Close observation is required to see if the critical support at 4269-71 holds, as it was instrumental in the last upward movement. Conversely, if the 4302 support gives way, it could lead to a notable decline, offering opportunities for bearish positions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/2 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This week started off with a firm yes rallying 100+ points from Friday’s low to yesterday’s high. The rally was triggered by a reclaim of 4154 on Monday, which put in a failed breakdown bottoming trigger. This led to three large green days in a row. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up except Mainland China down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down considerably, TLT up very strongly 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts FOMC does not raise interest rates Apple set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Key Structures Several big picture structures/levels stand out, arranged from highest to lowest. Notable levels include 4594 (minor resistance), 4479 (minor resistance), 4368 (major resistance), 4335 (minor resistance), 4307 (major resistance), 4279 (major resistance), and 4250 (major support). These are key levels to monitor, providing a snapshot of major structural points within the market. Support Levels 4250 (major), 4230 (major), 4214 (major), 4205 (major), 4135 (major), 4112 (major), 4321 (minor), 4452 (minor), and 3535 (minor). These levels are pivotal, with major supports being more critical junctures and minor supports offering additional layers of potential price stabilization. Resistance Levels 4594 (minor), 4479 (minor), 4368 (major), 4335 (minor), 4307 (major), 4279 (major), 4250 (major), 4135 (major), and 3905 (minor). These represent significant barriers to price movement, where we might expect sell-offs or reversals, with major resistances likely posing stronger opposition to upward trends. Trading Plan Following the significant rally, caution is advised against immediately purchasing at the first support. Watch for failed breakdowns, which could be opportune moments. The 4230 (major) zone is the first substantial support level for potential entry. Should the price dip further, 4214 to 4205 is another key area with a higher chance of a rebound. Wrap Up After three consecutive days of gains, it's prudent to adopt a more cautious stance on long positions. Preferably, a period of consolidation or a slight pullback would be healthy. The bull scenario hinges on holding key levels, especially around 4230 (major) and potentially 4214 as the lowest dip locations. Maintaining these levels could pave the way for an ascent to 4279, followed by a potential retest, then upward to the low 4300s, which seems to be the next target. The bulls retain the upper hand for now. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/1 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This week began with ES breaking the deepest sell cycle of 2023, which saw 8 of the last 9 trading days red before Monday. The market finally capitulated and put in a green day Monday, followed by another green day Tuesday. This was in line with my plan for the week, which was to get long when 4153-47 reclaims. We reclaimed this level on Monday, back-tested, and have been moving up since then. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up slightly, volatile 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly Major Global Catalysts FOMC day! US Treasury, FOMC, Jay Powell, and macro-economic data in focus today. Key Structures There are several key structures and levels to note in the current market landscape. These include 4280, 4247-50, 4230, 4203, 4154-57, and 4113. Each of these levels represents critical resistance or support points that will play a significant role in determining market direction. Support Levels 4203-05, 4190, 4182, 4171, 4163, 4154-57, 4147, 4135, 4125, 4113, 4103, 4090, 4075-80, 4064, 4055-60, 4043, 4025-30, 4011, 4000-4005, 3987, and 3976-79. Resistance Levels 4247-50, 4262, 4268, 4277-79, 4290, 4297, 4302-05, 4314, 4322, 4336, 4341, 4350-55, 4366, 4376, 4381, 4387. Trading Plan Given the volatility and complexity of FOMC days, my strategy is to size down and focus on failed breakdowns. I am looking for a level/key low to flush, trap, reclaim, then I get in. I will be trading the plan below, level to level, one move at a time. The bull case remains in play as long as we are above 4154-57, with 4247-50 being the obvious magnet. The bear case begins on the fail of 4154-57, with a new low down to 4112 quite likely if that support goes. Wrap Up Today is FOMC day, which is notoriously the most volatile, complex, and defining day of the year. It is essential to be reactive and not to predict the action in advance. 4213-4215 was a big resistance that cleared, as seen in the 4-hour chart. My lean is we can defend 4180 on any flushes then head to 4250 target. However, I will react to whatever path price chooses - I follow price, not tell it where to go. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro