NASDAQ’s update Congrats to us 4 our previous trade, great come back, 2 TP smashed. Now are waiting for activation of sell stop or selle limit 💪🏾 .
DM for exactly signals
Nq_f
New update on NQSo excited for Monday!
Alright, so as I mentioned last Friday about the possible pullback, we saw that when Trump signed the $2 trillion bill. And as predicted, the price fell. Currently, wave 3 has the same length as wave 1, but I am really excited by the strong rebound from NQ. NQ is now at the territory, meaning a high possibility of wave 3 extension, implying a way stronger bearish trend ahead. My suggestion now is to grab more puts/shorts, whatever you wanna call it, and be ready to loot on Monday morning! Target price below 7k.
GL to Y'all
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq Correction In ProgressNasdaq Index (NQ_F) ended the cycle from February 20, 2020 high at 6628.75 as wave (a). Internal of wave (a) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from February 20 high, wave I ended at 8126.25 and bounce in wave II ended at 9002.50. Index then resumed lower in wave III towards 6810 and wave IV bounce ended at 7629. The last leg wave V of (a) ended at 6628.75.
Wave (b) is currently in progress and it is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 6628.75, wave a ended at 7761 as 5 waves impulse. Wave ((1)) of a ended at 7316.25 and wave ((2)) of a ended at 6760. Wave ((3)) of a ended at 7757.75, wave ((4)) of a ended at 7371.50, and wave ((5)) of a ended at 7761. Pullback in wave b ended at 7295.24. The Index has resumed higher in wave c which should unfold in 5 waves.
Up from 7295.24, wave ((1)) is proposed complete at 7893.25. Expect wave ((2)) pullback to hold above 7295.24 for more upside. Dips should find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 7295.24 low for further upside.
𝗘-𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $ES_F Daily. Bear Attempt #23337.5 ended up being exact fib level, but stimulus from #PBOC prevented big drop end of Jan. Attempt #2 looks set to begin
Elliott Wave View: NASDAQ (NQ_F) Continues Marching to All-Time Short term Elliott wave view in NASDAQ (NQ_F) suggests the Index ended the cycle up from February 1, 2020 low in wave 1 at 9687.50 high. The index then corrected that cycle up in wave 2 as a zig-zag. Wave ((a)) of 2 ended at 9655.50 low. The bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 9669.25 high. It then resumed lower in wave ((c)) of 2, which ended at 9536.85 low. The index has since broken above wave 1 high and has resumed higher in wave 3. The internal subdivision is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure.
Up from wave 2 low at 9536.85, Wave i of (i) ended at 9677.75 high. It then corrected in wave ii and ended at 9652.25 low. From there, wave iii rally ended at 9748.75 high and wave iv pullback ended at 9719.75 low. The index then resumed higher and ended wave v of (i) at 9763 high. Currently, the index is doing a pullback in wave (ii) to correct the cycle from February 18 low (9536.85). While above 9536.85 low, the dip is expected to continue finding support in 3,7, or 11 swings for further upside.
𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁: $SSEC Daily (or $SHCOMP). Hitting resistanceConfluence of resistance here. Worth watching to see if straight-line DCB continues and #PBOC liquidity pumps remain effective
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TSLA Daily. Parabolic StillAssisting $NQ_F a bit today. Hit 300% fib extension in what remains an epic short squeeze. Safest to wait for parabola break to try short
𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵: $SPY Monthly Rare to see a shooting star at upper bolli with divergence in play ... only 3 in the past 25 years 👀
𝗘-𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $ES_F Daily. Top looks to be in3337.50 (261.8% fib) clipped exactly on 1/22/2020. Possible fakeout following FOMC tomorrow with real move starting Friday and / or next week
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq Short Term SupportElliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ_F) suggests the rally from October 3, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 45 minutes chart below, wave (3) of the impulse structure ended at 8907.25. Pullback in wave (4) ended at 8679.58 as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Wave A of (4) ended at 8735.25, wave B of (4) bounce ended at 8894.75, and wave C of (4) ended at 8679.58. Nasdaq has resumed higher in wave (5) with internal subdivision as 5 waves of lesser degree.
Up from 8679.58, wave ((i)) ended at 8831 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 8679.58. Wave ((iii)) ended at 9055.5 and wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 8966.25. Index then resumed higher and ended wave ((v)) of 1 at 9114.75. It’s currently within wave 2 pullback to correct cycle from January 8, 2020 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and expect dips to find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside as far as pivot at 8679.58 low stays intact. Next potential short term support area is 8949.51 – 9005.91 where the Index can end 7 swing double three correction. From this area, Index can extend to new high or bounce in 3 waves at least.
NQ1!, Buyers: How High One Can Fly...Relentless grind is today's market theme. The market is in a melt up mode. Shorts get run over and only add to the upside move. They are the best buyers after all. One need to understand the current backdrop: massive buyback and QE. All that effort is directed to prevent the last year December fiasco and to make sure that Santa rally is on the way. Until that backdrop is negated pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Use Fib ext from recent upswing to project most immediate targets. It works just fine.
11/28/2019
Happy Thanksgivings!
NQ1!, Short Term Weakness, Indecision, Short Week Ahead For the last several days the market remains in indecision state. The daily 20 MA was tested several times. The buyers continue to defend it. The larger timeframe bullish bias prevails. The short term bias is neutral. That invites both side to trade while creating momentum trades off inflection points with the help of headlines. Fake outs are quite common when the market is in consolidation phase.
The next week is a holiday week. It is expected even less participation and contracted volatility. However, it could change quickly if a headline triggers a turmoil. Best is to watch the inflection points and understand what should cause either a waterfall selloff or a melt up. 8230 level is important - a decisive break and hold below would be a sell signal. A break of the recent balance would set a new all time high.
Last year this time the market was in a sell off mode. I think the Fed does everything in their power to prevent it. They don't need any volatility. Consider that as a backdrop. A short term weakness would be addressed with powerful V-reversals.
11/23/2019
NQ1!, Market At Projected LevelThe market has reached the projected level making a new ATH. One can admire how the market structure and geometry continue to provide a valuable inside ahead of the price movement.
A few things to consider going into the next week:
- The market formed a balance at the current top. Its breakout would suggest a continuation to the next projected level 8350. A breakdown may lead to a retest of the channel bottom.
- The Nasdaq CBOE Volatility Index tagged Mar 15 low with extreme overbought RSI reading.
- The narrowest RTH range.
I'm inclined to see a downside move and spike in volatility.
While visiting a grocery store today I overheard a conversation between two cashiers.
One told another about S&P at all time new high and being very excited. I doubt he was considering a shorting opportunity :) It is said when the last mailman puts his wages into the market the top is defined. We shall see.
Don't predict. Wait for the price action confirmation. If it wants to go higher then there is no reason to fight it. If a sell signal is presented then it is time to sell.
Have a great weekend.
11/15/2019
NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointThe sellers made an attempt to break the channel bottom today. With a low volume and lack of participations they failed to follow up. Responsive buyers managed to reverse the entire move and push back into the broken channel. Piled shorts got squeezed. The market is closed at the resistance. Tomorrow is option expiration Friday. It may spike much needed volatility. A break of the resistance would lead to a new all time high. A downside scenario would unfold if the sellers succeed in breaking the bottom of the channel again. Despite a diminishing momentum and negative divergences there is no sell signal. Fake outs are costly for the shorts. Until the table turned around it is less risky to buy pullbacks. Bulls are in control above 8200.
11/14/2019
NQ1!, Marginal New All Time HighThe buyers were active right off the opening and pushed to a new all time high. One can see how the geometry and the structure shown on the chart represent the price action well. An exhausted move to 8300 found some profit takers who managed to push back below the previous ATH. Watching that action I was thinking that it looks like there were no new buyers who decided to buy at high prices. Perhaps the move up was orchestrated to attract the buyers chasing the price and when the volume did not pick up they sold it back. Just a wild thought.
From price action perspective a pull back to the channel bottom should attract buyers for a push back to the channel top. The sentiment would change if the channel gets broken downside decisively.
Active traders can participate in the price action regardless of the direction as long as they understand the inflection points of the structure.
The momentum is not supporting the upside continuation, however, there is no sell signal either.
11/12/2019
NQ1!, The Market Never Drops When Everyone Anticipating ItThe market remains resilient and the bulls are active to defend the recent accomplishment 8200 level. Perhaps reaching and breaching the next 8300 milestone is in their minds.
Jokes aside the price moves up not because there is a strong desire to acquire the product. Put it simple: there is no strong supply met yet. This is e-trading. The volume is low and the momentum is diminishing.
On the chart is the current market structure. Watching the inflection point gives a clue where the price might go next. I found this is an objective view to trade the market and a chance to avoid your personal bias.
Regarding the last session. On Friday, a normal action was interrupted by 2 conflicting headlines. It made the environment challenging but also offered trading opportunities depending on your view and style.
What to expect:
The session ended at 8260 level which is a resistance to watch. A break and hold above it would be in line with the current bullish sentiment. A grinding up action to new highs would be the theme.
A return back to 8200 and hovering in that area would suggest a short term weakness and potential breakdown targeting the next level below. The larger timeframe bias won't change because of that but a spike in volatility is expected.
I mentioned it many times the price action is the only way to gauge which side is winning short term. For example. on Friday the sell side managed to break 8200 level for a very short period of time. Shorts started to pile up and the expectation was to see a sell off. But the price action suggested otherwise and going long at 8200 was a correct play. I tweeted that in real time.
Stay nimble. Trade the market not what you think about it.
11/10/2019
NQ1!, All time Highs, Uninterrupted Buying SpreeThe market continues to exhibit a strong bullish bias. Small pullbacks are bought. Any attempts to start a bigger correction are met by headlines. Nevertheless, one can observe the harmony in those movements and predictability of projected targets. For people who wants to shorts those opportunities are there. The market, through its price action, tells exactly where to do that. Don't initiate a short if the message is not clear. Despite negative divergences, which are only indications of slower momentum, the market can continue its upside journey. The backdrop that fuels that move has not changed.
Stay nimble. Longs are less risky.
Tomorrow is Friday. There is a tendency to mean reversion. 8210-20 is this week point of control. Let's see if the prices ends the week by retesting that level.
11/7/2019
NQ1!, This Market Needs a Reason to SellA grind to a new all time high is a recent theme of this market. Fueled by China news and NFP the market had yet another risk free Friday. One need a patience of a monk to sit through the grind. One of the solutions is "set and forget" while doing something more productive. This market needs a reason to sell. Technicals are important, but not enough . Whoever shorts this market gets squeezed and only adds to the next leg up. One of my projected levels was tagged on Friday. The projected levels are good as targets rather than resistance levels to initiate a short.
There is no doubt that the long side gets overcrowded. The upside reward is questionable as well. Nevertheless, the active traders are in position to capitalize on relatively small swings that are available every day.
My scenarios going forward:
- a pullback to an aggressive support and a bounce to a new all time high
- a pullback to the channel bottom and a bounce with a potential break of the channel
If you are interested in the intraday ideas you can follow me on Twitter. I usually share my thoughts pre-market and intraday when some inflection points are in play.
Stay nimble. The market does not care what we think. Trade the market not the economic outlook.
11/2/2019
NQ1!, The Last Stop Before Open SkyA strong move up has broken the recent balance, outlined on the chart, and came very close to the all time high. This is a momentum move off 2 weeks point of control (7940) that took many shorts by surprise and caused the squeeze forcing them to buy. There are no better buyers than trapped sellers.
At this point we need to watch whether it was one time Friday's deal or this breakout is going to stick. Ideally, the bulls should keep the price up and start moving towards the edge of the projected area which is 100% ext of the most recent balance. The existing all time high is a weak high and it could be taken out easily if the momentum continues. However, if the price starts coming back to the existing balance, 7940 is a big magnet, we may see a false breakout pattern playing which may create a liquidation move targeting 7800 and below depending on the momentum.
Next week the remaining mega tech companies will be reporting, there will be an FOMC announcement, month end - all of those are market moving events. However, there is no need to predict. Watching the inflection points gives some clues where this market could go next.
For now the bulls have priority. Usually, a breakout momentum does not die immediately. The market is in the breakout mode.
Day traders would find opportunities on both sides though.
Stay nimble. Remember that rationality has no meaning for the machines. They are trend following algorithms. If the trend is reversed for whatever reason, they reverse the position and continue to make money. No emotions, no hard feelings.
10/26/2019
NQ1!, Reversal in ProgressRetest of the resistance and failure led to a liquidation move. Breaking the recent wedge added to the downside momentum. Since the move happened off the top of the balance it got exhausted half way to the stronger support. The buyers took advantage of that and pushed back. The market closed at the inflection point. Ideally, we should see a reaction and continuation to the downside to retest Friday's low and potentially reach the support. Watch for a double bottom first.
Whether we see the beginning of a bigger correction or not remains to be seen. Before the mega tech companies are done with the earnings and FOMC meeting announcement it would be low odds to see a big change in the market structure.
A few high level scenarios are outlined on the chart. The market may choose to deliver something in between especially waiting for the outcomes of the above mentioned events.
Day traders would find opportunities on both sides regardless of the scenarios.
10/20/2019
NQ1!, Upside Target is TaggedMultiple headlines triggered the upside rally for today's session. Most of the movement happened in the overnight session. The day session retested the resistance level and found responsive sellers. Could be a risk off going into the weekend. Such a strong move created an overbought condition with a negative divergence. Next week would be telling whether the buyers would like to retest the all time high or would take some time off consolidating between the inflection points.
Several times I mentioned that the bias established within a day session usually remains unchanged. Unless, some news that makes a strong reversal of the sentiment. Keep in mind that the machines are designed to follow the trend. There is no much intellect behind that and definitely no rational regarding the value. Overbought/oversold conditions are warning signs but they don't stop the machines from trend following. Contra trades require precise entries since the risk/reward is limited. If you are not seeing where to enter then better to wait for a pullback and ride the trend. That would be less risky.
Notice the current structure and the steep trend line. This is something to watch. Without a strong break of the trend line a potential scenario is to see a consolidation before a new directional move either upside or downside starts.
10/11/2019
NQ1!, Bulls Want to Close the Week in GreenA wild price action in the overnight session driven by mixed headlines but the RTH session resumed the intended upside move. The market was primed for the upside by forming a balance at the edge of the bigger balance. The breakout happened right off the opening. A strong move into 7780 resistance while being exhausted offered a short opportunity as well.
A lucrative day for both sides.
At this point I would give the bulls a priority as long as they hold the price above 7720. They may try to retest the previous week high.
10/10/2019
