Technical Analysis Forecast for NIFTY50 (25,191) (UTC+4) 1:11PM
1. Candlestick Patterns
Recent Structure:
If NIFTY50 closed near 25,191 with a long upper wick (shooting star/gravestone doji), it signals rejection at higher levels → bearish reversal potential.
A bullish engulfing/marubozu candle would indicate strength → upside continuation.
Key Observation: Watch for confirmation candles. A close below 25,000 invalidates bullishness.
2. Harmonic Patterns
Potential Setups:
Bullish Bat Pattern: If 25,191 aligns with the 0.886 retracement of a prior up-move (e.g., 24,800 → 25,191), it suggests a reversal zone for longs.
Bearish Crab: If 25,191 is the 1.618 extension of a prior swing, expect resistance → pullback to 24,900-25,000.
Action: Validate with Fibonacci levels. Break above 25,250 negates bearish harmonics.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Wave Count:
Scenario 1 (Bullish): If in Wave 3 (impulse), 25,191 could extend to 25,500 (Wave 3 = 1.618x Wave 1).
Scenario 2 (Bearish): If in Wave B (corrective), 25,191 may peak → Wave C drop to 24,600 (Wave A = Wave C).
Confirmation: A break below 24,950 supports Wave C; hold above 25,100 favors Wave 3.
4. Wyckoff Method
Phase Analysis:
Distribution?: If volume spiked at 25,191 without further upside, it suggests "upthrust" (smart money exiting) → downside to 24,700 (accumulation zone).
Re-accumulation?: If consolidating near 25,191 on low volume, expect breakout toward 25,400.
Key Sign: Watch for springs (false breakdowns) or upthrusts (false breakouts).
5. W.D. Gann Theory
Price & Time Squaring:
25,191 is near 25,200 (a Gann square number). Close above 25,200 opens 25,500 (next resistance).
Time Cycle: July 15–20 is a potential turning window (watch for reversals).
Gann Angle: Trade above 1x1 angle (e.g., 45° from June low) = bullish momentum.
6. Indicator Synthesis (RSI + BB + VWAP)
RSI (14-period):
>70: Overbought → pullback likely if diverging (e.g., price highs ↑, RSI ↓).
<50: Loss of momentum → risk of deeper correction.
Bollinger Bands (20,2):
Price near upper band → overextended → mean-reversion to middle band (25,000) possible.
"Squeeze" (narrow bands) → impending volatility breakout.
VWAP (Daily):
Price above VWAP = intraday bullish bias. A dip to VWAP (~24,950) is a buy opportunity.
Price below VWAP = bearish control → sell rallies.
Intraday/Swing Outlook
Bullish Case (Hold above 25,100):
Target: 25,400 (Elliott Wave 3 + Gann resistance).
Trigger: Bullish candle close + RSI holding 60.
Bearish Case (Break below 25,000):
Target: 24,700 (Wyckoff accumulation + BB lower band).
Trigger: Bearish harmonic confirmation + RSI divergence.
Key Levels
Type Level Significance
Support 25,000 Psychological + BB middle band
24,700 Wyckoff accumulation zone
Resistance 25,191-25,200 Current price + Gann square
25,400 Elliott Wave 3 target
Trading Strategy
Intraday:
Long if holds 25,050-25,100 with RSI >50. Stop loss: 24,950. Target: 25,250.
Short if breaks 25,000 on high volume. Stop loss: 25,150. Target: 24,800.
Swing:
Wait for daily close above 25,200 (bullish) or below 24,950 (bearish).
Hedge with options: Buy 25,200 Calls + 25,000 Puts for volatility breakout.
Conclusion
25,191 is a pivotal level. The confluence of:
Harmonic resistance + Gann square at 25,200,
RSI near overbought territory,
Price testing BB upper band,
suggests short-term consolidation/pullback is likely. However, a daily close above 25,200 ignites bullish momentum toward 25,500. Trade the breakout/breakdown with confirmation.
*Disclaimer: This analysis is time-sensitive (as of July 15, 2025). Monitor real-time volume/price action for validation.*
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
