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October2023

10/31 Trading Plan -Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap The last week has been tough for the SPX, with 8 of the last 9 days seeing red. After a relentless three-day sell-off, ES managed a 70 point relief rally from Friday's lows. Yesterday, the bulls managed to reverse it and reclaim the 4147-54 level, leading to a green day. The question now is, can bulls manage green day #2, and perhaps more? The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts US Treasury lowers it’s borrowing estimate for Q4 and Q1. Key Structures 4247-50: This was the zone where it all began last Wednesday. We broke this down on Wednesday morning following 2 days of basing here. It is now a key backtest level. 4225-30: Big breakout level back in August. 4205: This area was an important support way back in May. We tested it 3x between May 10 and May 24th and it started a significant multi-month rally. 4147-53: This zone was an important level back in March, April and May. It was an important resistance in March, which then became support in May and set the ultimate May low. Support Levels 4180-82 (major), 4171, 4162, 4147-53 (major), 4136, 4125 (major), 4112 (major), 4101, 4092 (major), 4075-80 (major), 4069, 4055-60 (major), 4043, 4037, 4025-30 (major). Resistance Levels 4213 (major), 4225-30 (major), 4242, 4248-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4268, 4279, 4285 (major), 4297-4300 (major), 4314. Trading Plan Bull case today: ES did put in the framework for another attempted relief bounce, and generally, this is in play as long as we are above 4153-47, and sensible targets would be 4225-30, then 4247-50. Bear case today: Begins on the failure of 4147-53. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt. Wrap Up In summary, bulls are attempting another relief rally. These have nearly all failed for the past month, but in general, as long as 4147-53 keeps holding, the attempt is alive. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt. As always, trade tactfully and avoid impulse entries. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/30 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap The week saw a continuation of the red streak in ES, with 8 of the last 9 days being red. The week was characterized by heavy selling, with ES losing its core bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows. Since then, ES has been in “sell the bounce” mode, with periods of basing interspersed by sharp sells lower for a total of 100 points down since the loss of this level on Wednesday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts Markets shrug off intensification of Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza. Key Structures 4225: It was a big breakout level back in August. 4205: An important support way back in May. It failed on Wednesday after hours, backtested from below on Thursday, and we continued lower. 4153: An important level back in March, April and May. It was major support on Thursday, and acted as support yet again last Friday before flushing after 5 tests. 4120-26: The zone we ultimately broke out from in late March 2023, after nearly a full month of basing. 4075-80: A critical support zone. 4050-52: A major channel support. Support Levels 4125 (major), 4117, 4112, 4102 (major), 4092 (major), 4076-80 (major), 4060, 4050-52 (major), 4045, 4025-30 (major), 4017, 4000-4005 (major). Resistance Levels 4136, 4141, 4147-53 (major), 4163, 4171, 4181, 4187-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4218, 4225-30 (major), 4237, 4248-50 (major), 4255, 4264-68 (major), 4286, 4297-4300 (major), 4314-16 (major), 4323, 4335-40 (major), 4346, 4355, 4366-68 (major). Trading Plan The bull case started today with the reclaim of 4147-54. The bear case begins on the fail of 4125. The best shorts are on bounces, not on chasing red at the lows. If we test 4125 again put in another tradable bounce/failed breakdown (perhaps to 4117) then lose it after, I’d be looking short perhaps 4116 for the next leg down to 4102 then 4092. Wrap Up Although bears remain in control, downside is heavily stretched here, and RSI extremely oversold. As long as 4154 holds, we can work down to that 4101, 4092 zone before trying to hammer a low and reclaim 4154. Since 4154 reclaimed off the bat today, we start up direct. We could see a few large green days in the day ahead, but no promises. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/27 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week was the longest stretch of consecutive red days in 2023, with the SPX experiencing 5 red days in a row for the first time this year. This week started off with a single green day, representing a 70-point bounce to reset after 5 days. We spent 3/4 of yesterday in sell mode, making it 7 out of the last 8 red days. The question is whether this bounce is another dead cat or the beginning of a sustained recovery leg. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly Major Global Catalysts Core PCE eases slightly in September Key Structures 4279: Connecting the two rising October lows acting as ultimate resistance this week. 4247-50: The key support zone for the last few days collapsed on Wednesday. 4205: Important support zone back in May. 4153: Important support zone in March, April, and May. Support Levels 4163, 4153 (major), 4147, 4135, 4126 (major), 4112, 4102-4106, 4092 (major), 4083, 4076 (major), 4060, 4048-50 (major), 4040, 4026-29 (major), 4016, 4000-4005 (major). Resistance Levels 4171 (major), 4185-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4220-23 (major), 4231, 4248-50 (major), 4259, 4268 (major), 4279 (major). Trading Plan The context remains very bearish as long as we are sub 4205. If we can hold 4153, we could see a relief bounce. If 4153 fails, we could see another deep leg lower that should see 4126 at least. For those looking for short reactions, 4220-23 and 4248-50 are the best probability spots to look for a dip. Wrap Up With Amazon earnings out, we should expect more volatility, and predictability may be difficult. However, if we can defend 4153, we could see a relief bounce with 4171 as a trigger. If 4153 fails, we should expect to continue lower to 4126, 4076. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/26 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap The past week has seen the ES experience an unusual streak of red days, with six out of the last seven days ending in the red. This rare occurrence was followed by a green day on Tuesday as part of a broader relief rally at the Sunday futures open. However, the bulls could not sustain this momentum, and we saw a return to the red. The ES has been base building between 4245 and 4275 but lost this support on Wednesday, triggering a bearish start to the session. The RSI is oversold again, suggesting a potential short squeeze may be on the horizon. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down a lot, China up slightly 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly down but rallying off earlier lows 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Mostly up Major Global Catalysts ECB holds rates steady for the first time in 10 meetings. The US House has a new speaker who’s expected to support a stop-gap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown in November. Key Structures The 4335-40 zone remains a major pivot, connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. The 4247-50 zone has been key support over the last few days, but this collapsed on Wednesday. The 4205 area was an important support in May and has been held so far this week. Support Levels 4214, 4205 (major), 4186-90 (major), 4173, 4163, 4154 (major), 4143, 4127 (major), 4112, 4108, 4101, 4093 (major). Resistance Levels 4221 (major), 4233, 4247-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4271, 4279 (major), 4290, 4297-4302 (major), 4310, 4322 (major), 4328, 4335-40 (major), 4349, 4355-59 (major) Trading Plan The bear case remains dominant until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on backtests, but for those looking at breakdown trades, the failure of 4205 and 4185-90 is key. For the bull case, a reclaim of 4220 is needed to start, then a reclaim of 4247-50. A reclaim of 4220 would open a retest of 4247-50, and from there, it's likely we could see at least a few green days back to 4300. Wrap Up While bears remain in control, there is a risk of a short squeeze, which is often sudden and violent. The general lean is that 4185-90 can hold, then try the reclaim of 4220 to push back to 4247-50, dip there, then try higher. If 4185-90 fails, we sell to 4163-53. The key is to remain reactive, trading level to level, and leaving any bullish or bearish big-picture outlook at the door before the trading day starts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/25 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap Yesterday, ES broke its 5-day red streak, the longest in 2023. The green day was expected as ES tested its primary bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows and put in a failed breakdown bottoming setup of last week's lows. This setup led me to go long on Sunday/Monday from 4215, adding to it at Monday's close at 4245. The market action played out as expected, with ES holding 4245 overnight and rallying to 4270s this morning. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts More stimulus rolled out to boost China’s economy. Key Structures Some notable structures/levels from highest to lowest include 4335-40, 4302-4297, 4275, 4245-50, 4220, and 4205. Support Levels 4268 (major), 4254, 4245-50 (major), 4238, 4237, 4220 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4196, 4185-90 (major), 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4144, 4126 (major), 4108, 4101, 4090-95 (major), 4076 (major), 4062, 4055, 4045-50 (major). Resistance Levels 4275 (major), 4280, 4297-4302 (major), 4308, 4314, 4322-25 (major), 4335-40 (major), 4347, 4355, 4366-70 (major), 4376, 4386 (major), 4395, 4402, 4408 (major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4436-39, 4449, 4460 (major). Trading Plan The bull case remains unchanged. As long as ES remains above 4245, the 4245-75 zone is considered a consolidation zone to set up a run to 4300ish, then onto 4322, 4335-40. For the bear case, 4245 needs to fail. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220. Wrap Up In summary, while tech earnings after hours yesterday could introduce trappy volatility, the general lean remains unchanged. As long as 4245 continues holding (and ideally for bulls now, 4268), we can push back to 4297-4300, perhaps dip, then onto 4322, 4335-40. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220. This level must hold for bulls. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/24 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week, ES ended with a rare 4-day losing streak, pushing the RSI(5) into oversold territory. Despite a short squeeze yesterday, ES failed to close green, ending the day around the same spot as Friday. However, a bullish hammer candle was formed, indicating potential for a bullish follow-up today. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Near unchanged 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts Yields finally pullback Key Structures The breakdown of the core uptrend line from October 2022 through March 2023 was met with a short squeeze that occurred yesterday due to a failed breakdown and hitting multi-year support. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300. Support Levels 4242-45, 4227, 4217-20, 4214, 4205, 4185-90, 4173, 4162, 4154, 4145, 4127-30, 4110, 4101, 4092-95, 4075, 4067, 4055, and 4047. Resistance Levels 4258, 4268-72, 4279, 4287, 4297-4302, 4314, 4322, 4327, 4335, 4342, 4355, 4365, 4372-75, 4385, 4396, 4404, 4408, 4412, 4418, 4427, and 4439. Trading Plan The bull case for today would see the 4242 level hold, with any dips below going no lower than 4220 and spiking back up quickly. If this level holds, ES could aim for a green day, re-testing 4270 before heading up to 4297-4300 and 4335. The bear case starts with the failure of 4220-17, with a possible short at 4217 after a clear trendline/structure forms. Wrap Up Despite 5 red days in a row, the bulls have shown potential with a failed breakdown of last week's low, a daily hammer candle, and defending the trendline from the COVID lows. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300. However, failure of 4245 could lead to a retest of 4217-20 and a new leg down to 4185-90. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/23 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap Last Friday, we saw the market slowly grind down through supports all day, with a few minor relief pops. This marked the fourth consecutive red day for ES, closing at the lows. At the same time, the RSI is nearly the most oversold this year, leading to speculation about a potential relief bounce. In this newsletter, we'll discuss the triggers and setups that led to last Friday's selling and break down the actionable trade plan for today. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts 10-year yield breaks through 5% Key Structures Last Thursday, ES lost support of a significant zone that I had been discussing daily for weeks. This zone was a confluence between the core rising bull market trendline from October 2022 and 4330-35, as well as an important horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. This zone has been referred to as the “bull/bear line” - bulls control above, bears control below. Support Levels 4215 (major), 4205, 4200, 4190 (major), 4182, 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4145 (major), 4134, 4127(major). Resistance Levels 4259, 4268-70 (major), 4279, 4287, 4297-4302 (major), 4313 (major), 4322, 4330-35 (major), 4342, 4346, 4355, 4365 (major), 4373, 4383-85 (major), 4395, 4399-4400, 4408, 4413 (major), 4424 (major) Trading Plan There is no bull case until bulls reclaim a resistance to make the case for one. The main one here is 4330-35, but this is quite a ways away now, and this is needed to set a “bottom”. Shorter-term, 4268-70 would be critical, and reclaim there should start a move back to 4300, then likely all the way back to 4330-35 for the backtest. Bears remain in control until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on bounces (backtests) rather than chasing at lows, especially when RSI is dangerously oversold. Wrap Up In summary, bears remain in control, but after 4 red days and with RSI buried, there is a risk of a short squeeze. The focus should be on reacting to the above plan, with a general lean towards a potential relief pop off 4245, before resumption down to a new low to 4222-4215 area. As always, trade what you see, not what you think. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
10/20 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap After being in corrective mode for several days, ES arrived at the technical equivalent of ground zero - the 4330-36 zone. This zone is significant as it defines the uptrend that ES has been in for exactly 1 year. The arrival at this zone resulted in some of the most volatile, trap-filled, bipolar price action in many months. The 4330-36 zone was tested 5x over the past 24hrs, with multiple liquidity grabs below and multiple resultant 30-40 point squeezes, before finally losing it late day and flushing hard. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts Jay Powell’s hawkish statements. China imposes restrictions on graphite used in EV batteries in retaliation for new US chip export controls. Key Structures Two lines have been discussed for weeks and months. One is the core bull market trendline from October 2022, which fell 4336 yesterday. The other the horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. These lines converged at the same spot at 4335-4330, causing significant price action. Support Levels 4296-4302, 4280, 4268, 4222, 4213, 4205, 4182, 4153. Resistance Levels 4330-35, 4355-57, 4373, 4385, 4413, 4418, 4439, 4460, 4468, 4480-85. Trading Plan For any "bull case" in a sustained sense, 4330-35 must reclaim. If we continue selling today, 4268 is the absolute lowest bulls can see, as below there we start down to new lows at 4222. In terms of spots to add on strength before 4335, reclaims of 4302 are of interest. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4296-4302. If ES accepts this zone overnight and clearly fails to push and builds a base - very low 4290s/high 4280s 1 spot to try a "breakdown short". The next "big short" for me comes on the fail of 4268. Wrap Up We have lost a major support at 4330-35 and put in a big red day. It is likely the level backtests from below now. My general lean is we can perhaps push lower to 4279 or 4268 lowest, then attempt to backtest 4330-35. If 4302 reclaims, we may backtest direct. New lows below 4268.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
10/19 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of intensive rangebound trading, making it one of the choppiest days in recent months. It ended with a late-day downward trend, following a 187-point rally from the October 6th low. The market spent nearly a week in consolidation mode, oscillating between 4366 and 4418. This range eventually tightened and peaked yesterday before finally breaking. The 4375-67 zone was a key battleground, with the market bouncing there twice before finally breaking down mid-day. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a lot 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts Yields and mortgage rates approaching two-decade highs. Key Structures The key structures to note include 4477-82, 4418, 4374-67, 4336, 4330, 4302, and 4268. Each of these represents important pivot points or trendlines that have influenced the market's movements. Support Levels 4343, 4335, 4329, 4322, 4314, 4302, 4292, 4286, 4279, 4266-68, 4258, 4251, 4233, 4227, 4224, 4213, and 4205. Resistance Levels 4356, 4367, 4373-75, 4385, 4394, 4404, 4412, 4416-18, 4432, 4338, 4449, 4458-60, 4473, 4480-85, 4494, 4505-07, 4515, 4525, 4532-35, 4542, and 4549. Trading Plan For bulls, the 4330-36 zone must hold, and 4373-75 must be reclaimed to set a "bottom". For bears, a fail of 4335 could initiate a bearish move. In both cases, avoid chasing and aim for entries close to recent highs/lows or near a recent base. Wrap Up The market is still in a corrective phase following last week's rally. The core bull market trendline from October 2022 at 4330-36 was backtested late yesterday and will be key today. If 4330-36 holds, we could backtest 4373-75 once more. If it fails, we could start a leg lower to 4302. The RSI is now extremely oversold, indicating a potential for a reversal. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/18 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This trend continued yesterday as the ES continued to build a base between 4360 and 4410-20. Despite a lucrative run today, ES has ultimately been displaying a lot of volatility to go nowhere, as we continue to base in the 4410-20 to 4360s range. This will inevitably result in a large trend move. But in which direction? The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up slightly 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts Markets nervous as Israel-Hamas war intensifies, Biden visits Israel, and Jordan cancels planned summit with Biden and Arab leaders. Euro area inflation declines. Key Structures Some big-picture structures/levels that are notable from highest to lowest include 4478-85, 4418-24, 4375-67, 4336, and 4327. These are not comprehensive and are simply major structures to take note of, and they are not predictive. Support Levels 4390-93 (major), 4375 (major), 4367, 4355, 4343 (major), 4335 (major), 4327, 4314, 4299-4302, 4288 (major), 4278, 4269-70 (major), 4263 (major), 4255, 4244, 4224-27 (major), 4212, 4205-08 (major). Resistance Levels 4403, 4408 (major), 4418 (major), 4424, 4430, 4439 (major), 4443, 4452-55 (major), 4462, 4471, 4478 (major), 4485 (major), 4496, 4505-07 (major), 4515, 4526, 4532 (major). Trading Plan We remain in a total chop zone, and I consider everything between 4418 and 4367-75 as being pure noise. It is not hard to trade - as long as you do not over-trade. Take your level-to-level piece and quit for the day. 4390-93 is first support and we are here as of writing. This is very well tested now. One could bid it at your own risk, or safer is to wait for it to flush and reclaim something like test 90 and pop above 93. Wrap Up In summary for today: We remain in chop and 4418-4367 is total noise and the action inside it is not predictable. My general lean is that as long as 4367 keeps holding though, ES can fill out this range more then attempt a break out to 4418, 4439, 4452-55. Ideally for bulls, 4390 can hold before this, but it is not fully necessary. If 4367 fails, we should see a good sell that sees 4342 at minimum. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/17 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week saw the ES snapping its five-week losing streak. The catalyst? A recapturing of its core bull market trendline from October 2022 on the 6th, triggering a robust 187-point rally. Though the week ended on a lower note, it presented a tactical buying opportunity. ES is currently in a 3-day limbo, fluctuating between 4410 and 4355 since last Wednesday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: On the Rise 🌍 Europe: A Mixed Bag 🌎 US Index Futures: Plunging 🛢 Crude Oil: Slightly Higher 💵 Dollar: Mild Gains 🧐 Yields: Strong Upward Trend 🔮 Crypto: Taking a Hit Major Global Catalysts US to Ease Sanctions on Venezuelan Oil Industry Middle East on the Cusp of Widespread Conflict Key Structures Some big-picture structures/notable levels from highest to lowest include 4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, and 4314. Support Levels 4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, 4314. Resistance Levels 4408-10, 4418, 4424, 4433, 4439-42, 4450-55, 4462, 4471, 4478, 4484-88, 4496, 4504-08, 4515, 4526, 4532, and 4543. Trading Plan The goal for Tuesday is to trade level to level, one move at a time. If we break higher today, I am not a big fan of counter-trending, but for those who enjoy it, the 4439 zone would be one spot, as would be 4450-55. If 4366 fails, I would consider a breakdown short after at 4362. Level to level profit takes. Wrap Up In summary, we had a great rally yesterday, and now it's time to build a base. My general lean here is that ES can fill out the 4408 to 4366 range. This would then produce another leg up to 4418, 4439, then 4450+. If 4366 fails, we work down the levels, likely to 4325. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/16 Trading Plan - Friday Recap and Week AheadRecap This week started off with a statistically significant rally, with 4 green days in a row, totaling a 187 point rally from last Friday’s low to this week's high. This made it the largest 4-day green stretch of the year. After 5 red weeks in a row, ES managed to put in its first green week, marking a reversal week. However, after reaching major resistance, ES began a corrective leg last Thursday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts China’s central bank boots liquidity, leaves rates unchanged. Key Structures There are several key structures to note. The first is the 4477 backtest of the yellow triangle structure that we broke down on September 20th. The next is the 4418-24 backtest of the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping blue trendline connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. The 4336 pivot is the backtest of the 9-month base we broke out on June 1st. Finally, the 4320-22 is the core bull market uptrend line. Support Levels 4358-55, 4336, 4320-22, 4302, 4277, 4258, 4227, 4200-05. These are the levels that I would consider bidding direct. Resistance Levels 4376, 4387-90, 4406-08, 4418-24, 4444-46, 4462, 4477, 4493-96, 4508. These are the levels where I would look for reactions short. Trading Plan For bulls, the big picture case is in play as long as we are above the core bull market trend at 4320-22. For bears, the case begins on the fail of 4320-22. I don't chase, so my goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base. The best shorts are on bounces or backtests, not on chasing red. Wrap Up In conclusion, as long as 4355-58 keeps holding (4345 on any quick spikes down) I favor ES continues to fill out this new three-day range. If we continue selling deeper, 4320-22 is the absolute lowest bulls can see. A failure there puts a retest of 4250 in play. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
10/13 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Looking AheadRecap Yesterday was a volatile trading day, with the CPI data release causing some significant market movements. The initial move down to 4393 was a trap for shorts, followed by a squeeze to ~4418, which trapped longs, and then a significant move lower. This pattern of trapping is common on data days, making them challenging to trade. The past week has been incredibly bullish, with four consecutive green days and a rally spanning 187 points from last Friday's low to yesterday's high. The trigger for this rally was ES reclaiming its 11-month bull market trendline last Friday at ~4315. A key development was the rising wedge pattern that formed and broke down on the 4-hour chart. This bearish pattern indicates increasing momentum to the upside within a narrowing range and decreasing volume, signaling a reversal when the uptrend line is broken. The breakdown from this wedge contributed to yesterday's selloff. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts Inflation fears are still in sight, as Thursday’s data showed an uptick Israel calls for evacuation of Gaza within 24 hours Banks kicked off earnings this morning, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo topping expectations. Key Structures Several key structures were notable in yesterday's trading. At 4438, we see a backtest to the wedge structure on the daily chart that we broke down on September 26th. The 4416-18 level backtests the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low, a key breakdown area. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping orange channel connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows, a key support level. Support Levels 4377, 4367 (major), 4360, 4352 (major), 4345, 4336 (major), 4318-22 (major), 4302 (major), 4296, 4278-80 (major), 4268, 4255 (major), 4237, 4226 (major), 4214, 4200-05 (major), 4190, 4179 (major), 4160-62 (major), 4153. Resistance Levels 4387-90 (major) 4399 (major), 4408, 4416-18 (major), 4425, 4436-39 (major), 4449, 4453, 4462 (major), 4468, 4473-76 (major), 4488, 4496 (major), 4507, 4515, 4523-25 (major), 4532, 4537, 4542 (major). Trading Plan For bulls, the plan is to see the late day attempted failed breakdown continue to hold. As long as the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold, a path higher could develop. For bears, the case begins on the failure of 4366. The goal is to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base. Wrap Up Yesterday was a volatile session, with bulls putting in a failed breakdown setup late in the day. This could lead to a tradeable bounce today, with a potential path higher if the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold. If 4366 fails, we may see a further retracement. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/12 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Looking AheadRecap In the past few days, the SPX has seen a massive uptrend, with Friday marking the single largest range green day of 2023. This was followed by two more rally days on Monday and Tuesday. As predicted, we saw a pullback and consolidation yesterday, with a dip mid-day to 4377. However, this was bought with force, indicating the strength of the bulls. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Down Major Global Catalysts Inflation prints down slightly from last month but very slightly higher than expectations. Key Structures The price action has several notable structures and levels. At 4438, we see a backtest to the orange wedge structure that we broke down on September 26th. The 4418-24 zone is an important breakdown area that we fell through thereafter. The 4377 level is the downsloping yellow channel connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. The 4336 level remains a major pivot and the 4316 level is the core bull market uptrend line. Support Levels 4407, 4400 (major), 4390, 4378-80 (major), 4366 (major), 4353, 4347 (major), 4336, 4322, 4316 (major), 4302, 4284 (major), 4274, 4255 (major), 4242, 4236, 4227 (major), 4217, 4213, 4200-05 (major), 4190 (major), 4178, 4163 (major). Resistance Levels 4418 (major), 4424, 4430, 4439-42 (major), 4453, 4462 (major), 4473 (major), 4488, 4497 (major), 4507, 4515-20 (major), 4533, 4542 (major), 4549, 4556-61 (major), 4575 (major). Trading Plan The bulls are in control. Trade accordingly. Wrap Up In summary, the bulls are firmly in control as long as we stay above the 4316 core uptrend line. A loose guess would be that if we can continue holding the above-mentioned supports, we could continue higher to 4439-42, 4462, then 4472. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
10/11 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Looking AheadRecap In the past week, we saw a significant technical shift with ES reclaiming the 4310 level, its core bull market trendline from October 2022. This put the bulls back in control and corresponded with the start of bullish October seasonality. The week had straightforward trading, with the market pulling back to the 4310 level before triggering a two-day rally of over 100 points. The rally was driven by the confluence of a failed breakdown on Friday and the reclaiming of the year-long trendline. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly Major Global Catalysts IMF projects soft landing for global economy. Key Structures The market is currently +175 points from Friday’s low, without a minor retracement. Key structures to note are 4472, 4418-24, 4377, 4336, and 4315. These structures are not comprehensive but are major ones to take note of. Support Levels 4389-93 (major), 4377-80, 4366-63 (major), 4347, 4336-38 (major), 4322, 4315 (major), 4302, 4289, 4276-78, 4268, 4258, 4250-54 (major), 4235, 4228 (major), 4220, 4213, 4200-05 (major), 4190 (major), 4177, 4163-65 (major). Resistance Levels 4404, 4418-24 (major), 4436, 4438-42 (major), 4457, 4473-75 (major), 4488, 4496-4500 (major), 4507, 4515 (major), 4526, 4531 (major), 4537, 4543 (major), 4549, 4556 (major). Trading Plan For today, I anticipate a period of messy, tactical, level-to-level consolidation/pullback. While a 3rd large uptrend day is possible, it's becoming less likely. I will be looking to give price a day or two to show some price discovery and build structure for its next leg. The first notable support on the downside is 4366-63. If we get down there, I’d consider bidding. One could also try the 4377-80. Wrap Up In summary, the past few days have seen clean, A+ uptrend, and traders have been very spoiled. Today, I anticipate a pullback and consolidation to work off the recent rally. Ideally, this would be something like 4377 or 4366 lowest. From there we can continue back to 4418-24, and break there starts the next leg to 4472, which remains the magnet. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
10/10 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Looking AheadRecap Friday was a significant day for the ES, with it reclaiming its core bull market rising trendline from the October 2022 lows at ~4310. This week began with a significant gap down due to weekend headline catalyst out of the middle east. However, the action at the open demonstrated just how powerful simple technicals remain even in the face of geopolitical headline risk. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up but Mainland China down 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Very near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts Israel promises all out war against Gaza. IMF raises US growth forecast. Key Structures The core rising trendline from October 2022's low is of utmost importance. The market agrees - Last Tuesday, it finally failed after 3 tests in the prior week causing a deep flush to 4235. Last Thursday, we backtested the line twice from below and rejected. Last Friday, it finally reclaimed, causing a monster short squeeze and putting bulls back in the drivers seat. Support Levels 4366, 4348 (major), 4336 (major), 4323, 4310-15 (major), 4302, 4291 (major), 4278, 4268, 4254, 4247 (major), 4238, 4225-30 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4195, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major) Resistance Levels 4375-80 (major), 4388, 4400 (major), 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4446, 4458, 4472 (major), 4488, 4497, 4507 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4530, 4542 (major), 4550, 4556 (major). Trading Plan The bulls are back in control as long as 4310-15 holds. Ideally for bulls though, ES could build a new consolidation range, between something like 4375-80 and 4336 and play ping pong in this range. For the bears, 4310-15 needs to fail for any proper bear case and fail there would start the leg to 4278 then 4247. Shorter term, 4336 fail would also likely present a good short. Wrap Up After two weeks of relentless selling, ES has reclaimed its core bull market trendline and held it yesterday, squeezing massively. The question now is whether there will be more follow-through. The key level to watch is 4310 - as long as this holds, the bulls are in control. However, a break below this level could signal a new leg down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
10/9 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Looking AheadRecap Last Friday, we witnessed a bullish breakout in ES. The movement was anticipated and played out well, running over 100 points from the day's low right to the final target of 4348 and beyond. The ES reclaimed its core bull market trendline from October 2022, which was necessary to set a low. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down but stable 🛢 Crude Oil: Up very strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Closed for Columbus Day 🔮 Crypto: Down Major Global Catalysts Israel-Gaza war raises global tensions amid knee-jerk reaction from financial markets. Key Structures Zooming out, ES accomplished a couple of things last Friday: It put in a failed breakdown and reclaimed its core trendline from October 2022. This means for next week, bulls firmly control as long as we are above the 4310 (4295 absolute lowest) zone. Support Levels 4348 (major), 4336, 4322-25 (major), 4310-08 (major), 4295, 4290, 4278-80 (major), 4265, 4254, 4245 (major), 4227-29 (major), 4213-16, 4205 (major). Resistance Levels 4348 (major), 4358, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4388, 4400-05 (major), 4418-24 (major), 4438 (major), 4448, 4455, 4463 (major), 4472 (major). Trading Plan For today, I will be sitting back and letting price discovery play out. My general lean is we can see some retracement/pullback, then ultimately head up to 4366, 4377-80. Likely dip there. Bulls cannot see lower than 4310-13 on any dip though. If we get a good tradeable bounce at 4310-13 though, followed by acceptance of the zone, something like 4304 may represent a higher risk breakdown entry trade. Wrap Up Bulls stepped in on cue last Friday reclaiming the core rising trendline from 2022s low. Predictability after a large move like this is very low, and I will be sitting back today and letting price discovery play out. My general lean is we can see some retracement/pullback, then ultimately head up to 4366, 4377-80. Likely dip there. Bulls cannot see lower than 4310-13 on any dip though. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/6 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking AheadRecap Over the last week, I've consistently referred to a single trendline in ES - the core bull market trendline from October 2022 in the low 4300 area. This week, almost every significant move was related to this simple trendline. On Tuesday, we saw a hard sell on the failure of it, triggering a deep sell to 4235. However, on Wednesday, we rallied to 4304 high of day. Key Structures 4377-80: The downsloping channel is connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. 4336: A major pivot that connects the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. 4308: The core bull market uptrend line in green. 4254-58, then 4227-31: Major levels below 4308. 4212-05: A critical level below 4227. Support Levels 4290, 4279-83 (major), 4269, 4254-58 (major), 4242, 4227-30 (major), 4212 (major), 4206, 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4154 (major), 4144, 4133, 4127 (major), 4109 (major), 4100, 4093, 4075-80 (major). Resistance Levels 4296 (major), 4308 (major), 4314, 4320 (major), 4336, 4348 (major), 4355, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4386, 4400, 4411, 4418, 4425 (major), 4439, 4450 (major), 4460, 4467, 4473 (major), 4480, 4496, 4507 (major), 4513 (major). Trading Plan The bullish setup here is that this entire range between 4296 and 4258 or so is a large consolidation to set up a fresh trend leg higher. The bear case would be that the stubborn 4254-58 needs to fail for there to be any true bear case. My goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base. Wrap Up Today, we have the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which adds a massive “wild card” to the price. My general lean though is that 4296-54 is a range to set up a move higher. This new leg should target 4320, 4336 then 4348 at least. Should 4254 fail though, then ES probably needs a new low and I would expect it to tag 4230 at least. There is high uncertainty here, and I’ll be reacting as per the above plan. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/5 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking AheadRecap Yesterday played out almost perfectly in ES. We had a big short squeeze after a final overnight flush, confirming our plan from the previous day. The final flush hit the 4230s, it defended, and then we saw a large squeeze to the 4304-08 final target. Today, we backtested the big multi-month support zone and ES put in a good green day with a large wick. The question now is whether the bulls can manage a second consecutive green day. Key Structures 4336 remains a major pivot and a battleground zone/magnet. 4308-13 is the core bull market uptrend line. It failed yesterday after 3 tests, and is now the new bull/bear line. 4254-58 and 4227-31 are major levels below there. Support Levels 4287-91 (major), 4278, 4269 (major), 4254-58 (major), 4240, 4227-30 (major), 4220, 4212, 4205 (major), 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4153 (major), 4146, 4135, 4128 (major). Resistance Levels 4308-13 (major), 4322, 4335, 4349-54 (major), 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4385, 4400, 4418, 4424 (major), 4433, 4440 (major), 4453, 4460, 4470-73 (major). Trading Plan Bull case: Bulls will need to defend supports on any dip off this zone. Ideally, this would be 4290ish, with 4267 being lowest. Below there, it is probably we need another leg down to a new low at 4230 before any sustained low can be set. Bear case: In order to see new lows tomorrow, 4354-58 must fail. A few options to trade this - one could front run it by trading the fail of 4269. The alt is waiting for 4254 to fail and shorting at 4252 or so. Target is 4230. Wrap Up We are at a major decision point now and the price discovery here overnight and tomorrow will be key. My general lean if I had to provide one is that ES can go for green day #2 tomorrow. This will likely start with a dip first though, and bulls will need to defend that 4269 lowest. Next targets up are 4313, 4322, then back to the big 4336 level. If 4269 fails, its a warning that we need a new low. React, don’t predict. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
1
Midweek Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The past week saw multiple failed breakdowns in the S&P futures market, with each day since last Wednesday offering actionable trading opportunities. Yesterday's traditional failed breakdown, following a significant low and substantial sell-off, resulted in a rally to 4335. However, the subsequent sell-off highlights the importance of level to level profit taking. The same setup triggered again at the close yesterday, offering two fine entry points before invalidation. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle which commenced the sell-off on September 20th remains a key feature. The downtrend line connecting the June 26th low with the August 18th low is a major victory for bulls. The most important level/pivot is 4336, which connects the August 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. The core bull market uptrend line, shown in red, is now a “must hold” to keep any further relief rally in play. Support Levels 4254-58, 4227-30, 4206, 4190, 4165, 4127, 4111, 4087-91, 4075. Resistance Levels 4290, 4308-04, 4336, 4350-55, 4380, 4400, 4418-24, 4448, 4472, 4496-4500. Trading Plan The bull case tomorrow hinges on the trendline at 4308 reclaiming, which should set the seasonal bottom. If ES defends 4230 on any further selling and heads back to 4290, 4308, this could signal the bottom. For a more direct bull case from the 4254-58 level, a test of 4254 in the morning followed by a spike back into the high 4250s could indicate a move up to the 4290, 4308 backtest. The bear case, which remains the default, would involve ES continuing lower to 4227-30, ideally with overnight relief bounces not exceeding 4280. For those looking to add on shorts, the key is not to chase. The best shorts are on bounces, and a fail of 4254 tomorrow morning could trigger a move down. Wrap Up After today's big move, predicting the market's next move is challenging. The focus should be on reacting as per the plan. Bears could potentially defend 4269, 4280 max overnight and see another leg down into 4241, 4230-27 before a bounce. However, traders should be mindful of short squeeze risk. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro