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Oil(wti)

OIL: After death of Iran's President The recent death of Iran's President might initially impact oil prices due to concerns about Middle East instability. However, this effect is likely to be temporary for several reasons: Limited Presidential Power: In Iran, the President's role is more executive, with real power concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, the President's death does not signify a major shift in governance or policy direction. Supreme Leader's Influence: The President, including the late Ibrahim Raisi, is essentially elected by the Supreme Leader. This ensures continuity in Iran's political landscape, reducing the likelihood of significant instability. Market Realization: Any initial market reaction based on fears of instability is expected to be short-lived. As the market realizes that the Supreme Leader's authority remains unchanged, confidence should return, stabilizing oil prices. In summary, while there may be an initial reaction in the oil market, it is unlikely to result in long-term chaos or a significant deviation from the current market direction.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by AliSignals
Oil setting itself up for a rebound after six days of sellingAmid a quick change in the market sentiment in mid-April 2024 and subsequent weakness in stocks, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (USOIL) retreated from its highs to $78 per barrel. In the process, USOIL broke below the lower bound of the ascending channel, and the daily time frame turned bearish, with MACD crossing below the midpoint, Stochastic falling into the lower area, and RSI approaching 30 points. The weekly time frame also turned slightly bearish, with MACD, Stochastic, and RSI reversing; nevertheless, it must be noted that MACD remains in the bullish zone, and ADX contains a relatively low value, hinting at a neutral or very weak trend on the medium time frame. As for the monthly time frame, technicals indicate a sideways-moving market as well. From a bigger perspective, USOIL appears in the range that has been under development since early 2023, defined by roughly $83 on the top and $70 on the bottom. In the smaller picture, USOIL experienced a decline of approximately 11% just within the past six trading sessions, potentially setting it up for a rebound; should it occur, close attention will be paid to the resistance level at $79.72, which has acted as a barrier on multiple occasions throughout the past half year. In the event of a failure, the attention will be shifted to the support at $76.82 and $75.56, where buying interest might emerge. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows USOIL’s daily chart. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the channel. Illustration 1.02 The illustration above depicts the daily graph of MACD. The yellow arrow highlights a crossover through the midpoint, normally a bearish development. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish (weak trend) Monthly time frame = Neutral OPEC’s workshop As a result of the directives of the OPEC’s meeting held on 3rd April 2024, member countries with outstanding overproduced volumes were required to submit detailed compensation plans by 30th April 2024. In accordance with that, OPEC held a workshop on 3rd May 2024 to share compensation plans for Iraq and Kazakhstan for their outstanding overproduced volumes for the months of January, February, and March 2024, which totaled about 602,000 barrels per day for Iraq and 389,000 barrels per day for Kazakhstan. Houthi’s aggression Yemen's Houthi attacks on commercial shipping are escalating and spreading beyond the confines of the Red Sea. After the targeting of the MSC Orion on 26th April 2024, positioned 600 kilometers (375 miles) off Yemen's coast, another assault occurred merely two days later, on 29th April 2024, hitting the ship Cyclades near Mokha, Yemen. This increasing aggression highlights the region's growing instability, compounded by the United States and its allies' failure to curb the situation through airstrikes on Yemeni targets earlier this year. Hamas-Israel negotiations After months of stalled negotiations, Hamas representatives arrived in Cairo, Egypt, over the weekend for another round of ceasefire talks with Israel. Major media outlets reported that a truce is closer than ever before. Nonetheless, significant hurdles remain beneath the surface as both sides hesitate to make concessions. Hamas is adamant about the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and obtaining a guarantee from the United States that Israel will not launch a ground invasion of Rafah. Meanwhile, Israel maintains its stance that it will proceed with the invasion regardless. In addition to that, Israel’s hawks are vocal that even if a ceasefire deal is reached, it will not mark the end of the war. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
2
Israel strikes Iran againIsrael retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA). Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral) Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello, My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside. At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go. The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines. Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY. - R2F
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Road_2_Funded
2
Oil could go to $90 and higher if this happens...Since the eruption of the war between Hamas and Israel in early October 2023, we have been occasionally reporting on some of the developments in the oil-rich region. In one of the more recent articles, we outlined how Israel’s deadly airstrike against Iranian generals in Damascus, Syria, was likely to provoke retaliation from Iran and its proxies. On Saturday, Iran followed through and launched a large-scale attack on Israel. Per media reports, Iran sent approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles, most of which were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace with the help of Israel’s allies, including the United States. The attack sparked a discussion of retaliatory strike against Iran within Israel’s war cabinet, with officials not being able to agree on a timeline. Initially, it was announced Israel would reciprocate aggression in a window of 24 to 48 hours. However, just shortly before the futures market opened on Monday, Israel’s officials backtracked their plans, noting the country was not looking for significant escalation of the conflict while leaving a possibility of payback on the table. Besides the attack, there was also news concerning Iran’s seizure of the Israel-linked MV MSC Aries cargo ship (operated by Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping Company and owned by Gortal Shipping) off the Strait of Hormuz. At the moment, it does not seem very probable there will be some sort of disruption to cargo or tankers transiting through the area, but keep in mind that about 21 million barrels per day were transiting through here in 2022, which is about three times more than oil passing through the Red Sea before the start of the Israel-Hamas War. All in all, the geopolitical situation in the region progresses from bad to worse, carrying many unknowns. But judging by how things are unfolding, there is a high chance of a conflict passing beyond a point of no return, which, in turn, has profound implications for the oil market and could see the oil price rise above $90 per barrel (and potentially to the upper $90 per barrel). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Oil traders are making big bets..ooh, no...not really so🛢🔴Oil traders are making big bets amid geopolitical uncertainties! 3 million barrels worth of options contracts were snapped up by speculators, with 3,000 lots of June $250 call options in US crude oil trading for just 1 cent each. Is this a Hail Mary or a well-calculated move?🤔 (Source: www.bloomberg.com). The headline is very clickable, however let's look at the actual data from the exchange. It is evident that 25 putts were traded at the same time. This raises the question of whether oil prices will decline further or if we are facing a similar situation to March 2020. It is unclear what the player's expectations are and whether this is related to foreign policy or part of an arbitrage strategy.
TVC:USOIL
by ClashChartsTeam
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area of 88.00.Dear Colleagues, we expected the price to decline, but it seems that the upward movement is not over yet. I expect the completion of wave "5", then a corrective movement in wave "B" of higher order in the area of 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels (83.62), after which I will consider only long positions to the resistance area of 88.00. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
TVC:USOILLong
by Hellena_Trade
12
USOIL Nearing Resistance Trendline Area: Breakout or Pullback?USOIL prices have been on an upward trend in recent weeks, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The price has approached a key resistance trendline area, where a breakout or pullback could occur. If the price breaks above the resistance trendline area, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend, with potential targets at 93.21 and higher. A breakout could be fueled by further supply disruptions or escalating geopolitical tensions Alternatively, the price could pull back before breaking out. A pullback could find support at the 67-70 levels. If the price rebounds from support and breaks above the resistance trendline, it would still be considered bullish.
TVC:USOILLong
by DNP-FX
Oil unaffected by the Port of Baltimore's closureAfter breaking above the ascending channel and reaching its highest value in nearly six months late last week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil retested the upper bound of the channel during yesterday’s trading session. The outlook continues to look bullish on daily and weekly time frames. Nevertheless, multiple indicators flash overbought signals on the daily chart, implying this might not be the best spot to enter the market on the long side, and instead, it might be preferable to wait for a more substantial correction. While waiting for such an event, we would like to address a recent tragedy in Baltimore that captured national headlines and caused the closure of the Port of Baltimore. Some analysts proclaimed this to be the start of bigger problems for various supply chains. However, despite the event's emotional weight and social implications, its impact on the oil market has been minimal. That is mainly because the port’s imports are not made up of crude oil but rather petroleum-derived products, including biodiesel, asphalt, and numerous fertilizers (along with different non-petroleum products). Therefore, the port does not hold considerable significance to the oil market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and the upward-sloping channel. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
WTI CRUDE OIL: Starting a new Bull Cycle. $200 possible.WTI Crude Oil appears to have completed a multi decade Bear Cycle that started during the 2008 subprime crisis. Such long term trends and patterns can only be viewed on monthly timeframes and for this analysis we have chosen the 3M. Technically Oil is only neutral on its 1M technical outlook (RSI = 54.985, MACD = 2.990, ADX = 14.499), which indicates its strong long term bullish potential. As you can see both on RSI terms and pure candle action, Oil seems to be making a bullish reversal after the decline in early 2022, as it held the 3M MA50 on consecutive tests. This price action is very much like the January 2002 rebound, which evolved into a six year Channel Up towards the All Time High of the 2008 Crisis. See how before the 3M MA50 rebound, both patterns rebounded on their 3M MA200. We have to filter out the March-April 2020 monumental collapse to even negative price levels amidts the OPEC-Russia production war. Both eras lasted for approximately the same time: 5571 days now as opposed to 5844 days in the past. This remarkable symmetry can lead us to a Channel Up rally well above $200 in the next 6 years. Even though fundamentally less realistic based on the current news structure, this is definitely technically plausible, in fact for us is a very probable reality, especially if inflation eventually starts picking up pace again. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
WTI OIL Big rally ahead unless it breaks below the 1W MA100.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our long-term 82.50 Target last week, a call made early this year (January 12, see chart below) when the price was still at $74.33: At the moment, the price sits above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of October 23 2023, as the week opened above it. This calls for an upward extension similar to the September 04 2023 1W MA100 bullish break-out. As long as the 1W candles close above the 1W MA100, we will stay bullish, targeting the 18-month Resistance Zone (red) at 92.50. If Oil closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA100 though, we will take the loss and open a short instead, targeting the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and Higher Lows trend-line at 79.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
Oil hits YTD peak. What are the risks now? Oil prices reached their highest level in seven months, partly driven by worries that escalating tensions in the Middle East could constrain supply. Iran has warned of a potential "serious response" against Israel following a targeted strike in Damascus that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals. This incident has raised concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East, following over five months of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Furthermore, Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive by targeting Russia's oil infrastructure. Although the attacks have so far reportedly only caused minimal damage. Ukraine's objective is to disrupt Russia's main financial support for its invasion of Ukraine. Better-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from China and the US have also buoyed optimism in the oil market. Because of this, investors might anticipate increased demand in the manufacturing and industrial sectors of both countries. WTI has now found support just above $84.00. The 100 SMA is above the 200, potentially indicating that support is likely to hold. However, caution might be warranted as the market nears overbought conditions. If the $84.00 level fails to provide support, the subsequent target could be slightly below $81.00, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the low in March to the recent peak. Alternatively, a less significant pullback might see buyers stepping in at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci levels.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
UKOIL daily XABCD bulls 20% upside BUY/HOLD🔸Hello traders, let's review the daily price chart for UKOIL. Speculative XABCD in progress, with 20% upside potential based on the current price action / fundamentals. 🔸XABCD structure is defined by point X at 95.60, point A at 73.20, point B at 92.50, point C at 77.00, point D/PRZ at 105.00, currently most points validated, point D/PRZ pending in May/June 2024 (PRZ/D = 105.00) 🔸Recommended strategy for UKOIL traders: accumulate near market price using low leverage. TP Bulls is 105.00 +20% gains. swing trade setup. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
1
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area 80.22.Colleagues, the price has redrawn the waves a bit, I was waiting for it and at the moment I assume that the price may update the wave "C", then I expect the price to decline to the support area of 80.22. This movement should update the minimum of the wave "B", then I will make a markdown and expect an upward movement, but for now I am considering only short positions. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
TVC:USOILShort
by Hellena_Trade
8
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area (maximum of wave C).Dear colleagues, I suppose that the upward movement is not over yet! The price is forming Multiple Zigzag. I expect the price to reach the support area at 79.00, having finished wave X, after which I expect the upward movement to continue at least to the resistance area - the maximum of wave C at 83.00. I do not recommend entering short positions! We are looking for a good entry into a long position. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
TVC:USOILLong
by Hellena_Trade
13