Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?USO/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 60.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 62.00
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 56.89
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Oil
Oil prices still face systemic downside risks.Although the geopolitical situation in the Middle East (the conflict between Israel and Iran) may support oil prices in the short term, market sentiment is still dominated by supply pressure. Technically, WTI has broken below the key support level of $60. The MACD death cross and the oversold RSI suggest that the bears are in the dominant position, and the next support level is expected to be $54.80. Barclays Bank has lowered its price forecast for Brent crude in 2025 to $66. Weak demand and the expectation of the resumption of shale oil production in the United States further suppress the medium - term trend.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Trading Strategy:
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TP:57.6-58.1
WTI OIL May be closer to $50 and below than a recovery.WTI Oil (USOIL) is having a strong green 1W candle but remains on a strong selling sequence since the January 13 2025 rejection on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). So far this is technically the Bearish Leg of the Channel Down that started after the March 07 2022 market top.
The Bearish Leg that was initiated then, declined by -48.60% so if the current one repeats this we are looking at prices close to $41 by the end of the year or beginning of 2026. Technically, as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, the immediate Targets within a 3-month horizon are $50 and $46.
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Can it hit the bottom and rebound?Fundamental Analysis: Driven by the trade concerns sparked by Trump and the risk aversion sentiment arising from the global economic slowdown, the trajectory of oil prices has been shaped. Additionally, OPEC+ convened an early meeting on Saturday and confirmed an increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day in June. This decision has indubitably intensified the market's apprehensions regarding the oversupply of crude oil 📉.
Technical Analysis: Technically speaking, the price of crude oil has persistently lingered below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, distinctly indicating that the bearish trend is in the ascendancy 📉. Last week, on the weekly chart, it closed with a substantial bearish candlestick, exhibiting a downward tail pattern, and in the short term, the price has been fluctuating within a trading range 📊. As for the upcoming week's trend, whether the support level established by the previous double doji bottoming formation will be broken through effectively will be the focal point of market attention 👀. Nevertheless, once the price reaches the crucial support level, there exists the potential for a technical rebound. Investors should closely monitor the variations in trading volume and the response of the moving average system 📈.
Market Situation: It is crucial to note that due to the holiday factor in the Asian market next Monday, market liquidity is anticipated to decline significantly. Under such circumstances, the oil price is likely to encounter a higher risk of more pronounced volatility, further escalating the uncertainty of the market situation ⚠️.
⚡⚡⚡ USOIL ⚡⚡⚡
🚀 [email protected] - 57.0
🚀 TP 59.0 - 60.0
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟
WTI Oil H4 | Swing-high resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 59.68 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 62.30 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 56.05 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
"US Oil Spot / WTI" Energy Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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USOIL trading opportunities.After the "OPEC+ continued to increase production" on Monday, USOIL continued to fall to a four-year low near 55. However, it rebounded after opening low on Monday. It continued on Tuesday. Is it no longer able to fall?
Ludvig believes that it will continue to fall. Because the decline is caused by the growth of production capacity. The rise is caused by geopolitical strategic reserve materials. One of these two directly affects the trend of OIL, and the other indirectly.
The trend of economic data API/EAI will continue to be released. If the geopolitical weakening situation, the oil price data released is roughly negative, so it will continue to fall. But if the impact of geopolitics intensifies, this is a positive factor.
So the current trading direction that can be determined is to continue to short.
In terms of trading, traders with large funds can sell at the current price, and those with small funds can wait until the market returns to above 59 to sell.
The band trading center continues to update new real-time trading opportunities. If you don’t know how to trade, or don’t want to miss the next real-time trading opportunity, remember to follow me.
$MSFT BEST TRADE EVER? SUB $400 incoming by Mid JuneHey everybody, I hope that rally didn't kick your arses the way it did mine. You know, it's like I'm allergic to taking upside atm due to how bearish the MACRO is. Of course, with time, I'm going to assume I get most of my downside Price Targets in the next several years.
If you refer to the previous 23% Run to the 200DMA from the 50day in 2023 , NASDAQ:MSFT produced a 9 COUNT SELL SIGNAL , RALLIED for a week, and then dropped to new lows. That is what I am expecting here.
NASDAQ:MSFT looks absolutely ripe for the taking. We just rallied 17% and got the 9 COUNT SELL SIGNAL . Mind you, Gaps galore below. The Monthly and the Weekly both have Gaps . Charts do not like that, let me tell ya. I'm excited if you can't tell. NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:AVGO look great as well. I'm still cautious about a spike out but I figure if we continue higher, i will have opportunity to grab more for cheaper as I am very confident in this move. The price moved above the DEATH CROSS and above the 200DMA . Not ever a healthy move if it moves Vertically from the 50 day and Crosses above both MA's without a stop. Mid June NASDAQ:MSFT should be at new lows.
WTI Crude oil Holds Support Despite OPEC Production IncreaseWTI crude was on the ropes Monday morning following another surprise production increase from OPEC+. Yet despite the weak start to the week, oil prices held above the April low despite the bearish headlines.
Given we've already seen a -15% decline over the prior eight days and a bullish divergence has formed, I suspect some bullish mean reversion is due. Bulls could seek a move to the $60 area, near the April VPOC. Note that the December 2023 low might also provide some resistance along the way.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Brent under pressure: A rebound may be comingIn 2025, oil prices have come under significant pressure, falling more than 21% since the beginning of the year — from $75 to around $59 per barrel of #BRENT. This decline was driven by increased production from OPEC+ countries, weak global demand (particularly in Asia), heightened economic risks due to trade disputes, and rising output from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Brazil. Together, these factors created an oversupply amid stagnant demand.
Currently, the oil market continues to be shaped by a range of influencing factors. While accurately predicting prices remains a challenge, several key drivers are likely to steer oil price movements in the near term. Here’s a look at the main bullish and bearish factors:
• Geopolitical tensions (Bullish driver): Ongoing or emerging conflicts in key oil-producing regions (such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe) raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. Even without actual disruptions, the perceived risk leads traders to factor in a “risk premium,” pushing prices higher. Any escalation could trigger sharp price spikes.
• OPEC+ policy (Bullish/neutral driver): The alliance’s production decisions remain a major influence on supply. If OPEC+ maintains or tightens its current output cuts to balance the market or target price levels, this will support price growth or at least stability. Conversely, quota breaches or output increases would weigh on prices.
• Global economic outlook (Bearish/bullish driver): The trajectory of global economic growth directly affects oil demand. Signs of GDP slowdowns in major economies (U.S., China, EU) tend to weaken demand and drag prices lower. On the other hand, if economic growth proves more resilient than expected, it would support oil demand and prices. Uncertainty over the growth path of many countries persists in 2025.
• Non-OPEC+ output growth (Bearish driver): Countries outside of the OPEC+ alliance — including the U.S. (shale), Brazil, Guyana, and Canada — continue expanding their production. Significant output increases from these nations could offset OPEC+ efforts and lead to market oversupply, applying downward pressure on prices.
• Energy transition and underinvestment (Medium-term bullish driver): ESG pressures, the global shift toward renewables, and uncertainty around long-term fossil fuel demand have led to underinvestment in new oil exploration and development. If existing capacity declines faster than new projects come online, a structural supply deficit could emerge, supporting higher prices even amid the energy transition.
FreshForex analysts believe that, given ongoing geopolitical risks, strict OPEC+ policies, and underinvestment in production, the oil market is nearing a potential upward reversal. A modest uptick in demand or increased tension could be enough to put oil back on a growth trajectory.
What adjustments will be made to oil prices?If traders don’t know how to trade, they can refer to the strategy of the Swing Trading Center. Earlier, it was announced to sell at 57.24. The lowest price reached around 56.3, and now the oil price has returned to 57.24. How to trade? If you are also confused, you can refer to the views of the Swing Trading Center.
At present, the supply of oil prices exceeds the demand, and some oil-producing countries will continue to increase the production of oil prices. The market has never recognized that oil will become a slow-selling product. Oil prices can be allowed to fall. But oil is not allowed to have no production capacity. I like this sentence.
Oil prices are expected to be mainly adjusted in the short term. The clear trading instructions have been announced in the Swing Trading Center. Stay tuned. Prevent missing good trading opportunities.
After a period of fluctuation, it will continue to decline.WTI crude oil has recouped part of the decline from the sharp drop at the start of this week. It was quoted at $57.55 per barrel during intraday trading. OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased production again, and WTI crude oil has continued the bearish trend that has gradually taken shape since March. With the increase in global supply and the rise in macro risks, the downward price range has emerged once again. If the tensions in the Middle East escalate further, it may trigger market volatility. The eight core member states of the organization, led by Saudi Arabia, have agreed to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels in June, which is the same as the unexpected production increase in May. The cumulative production increase now exceeds 800,000 barrels per day, marking an important step towards canceling the target of the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day that has been promised since 2022. Crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling today. After breaking through a new low, the upward movement continued. It faced resistance after reaching
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
USOIL Is Going Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 57.535.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 61.620 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil TumblesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Tumbles
WTI Crude oil is down over 10% and remains at risk of more losses.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $60.00 support zone.
- A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $57.25 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $60.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $58.00.
There was a steady decline below the $57.75 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $56.20 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $55.00 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $55.01, and the price is now consolidating losses.
There was a minor move above the $55.50 level. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $56.10 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $59.49 swing high to the $55.01 low.
The next resistance is near the $57.25 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $57.25. The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $59.49 swing high to the $55.01 low.
The main resistance is near a trend line at $57.75. A clear move above the $57.75 zone could send the price toward $59.45. The next key resistance is near $62.25. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $63.20. Any more gains might send the price toward the $65.00 level.
Immediate support is near the $55.00 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $53.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $52.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $50.00 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 55.204.Colleagues, I believe that the price will continue its downward movement. At the moment we are observing a combined correction. I expect the completion of wave “Y”. Even if it is already completed, the price is still waiting for a downward correction to the support area of 55.204. Therefore, I think that 55.204 is the 1st minimum target.
There are two possible ways to enter the position:
1) Market entry
2) Pending Limit orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into a swing-high resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 59.71 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 62.30 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 55.10 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Oil on high time frame
"Regarding WTI oil, the price trend on high time frames is bearish, especially on the daily chart. After completing its pullback on the 4-hour chart, there are indications of further downside potential.
The market's volatility may be influenced by geopolitical tensions and political factors between Iran and the USA, as well as tariff issues. Despite these fluctuations, candle formations suggest the potential for prices to drop towards the $58 zone."
If you require more assistance or have any specific questions, feel free to ask!
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears defended the breakout area and kept the market in a bear trend. Bulls tried to print a higher low with a decent bull reversal bar on Thursday. Now what? No idea. Oil below 60 is a big thing and staying below is somewhat low probability, given the past 6 years. The chart is still pretty bearish and if you want to be a bull and look at this, would you be thrilled to buy it at 58? I’m not sure. If you could hold below 53 and add lower as well, sure but as of now, bulls have not done enough to convice me this is a credible bottom.
current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily
key levels: 54 - 65
bull case: Bulls want to keep Thursday the higher low and go up from here. Above 60 they are slightly favored to test 62/64 again but one could also draw another bear trend line from 71.66 to 63.9 from last Monday. So buying here is not favorable, no matter how you look at this chart. Only above 65 do bulls take control again and can test the next bigger bear trend line around 67.
Invalidation is below 54.
bear case: Bears kept the bounce around the breakout area from the W1 low. Now they need to make lower lows to confirm the acceleration of this bear trend. If they fail, this will become fuel for the bulls to test back up to either 67 or even the W2 high at 71.66. My line in the sand for the bears is a daily bull bar close above the daily 20ema. If bulls can get that, I think more bears will give up. Until then, bears are slightly favored, especially below 56.29 to test 54.48 again.
Invalidation is a daily close above 62 and for sure anything above 65.
short term: Neutral around 58. Below 56.29 I think we can do 54.48 or lower and above 62 I expect more upside for 64 or higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
WTI TRADE IDEAhello everyone
From the previous oil movement, the entry at 58.52 moved up by 80 pips before hitting breakeven. For the upcoming open market, if the trendline and support or resistance break out as shown on the M30 chart, it could signal an opportunity to enter the market.
Ensure strong confirmation before acting, and keep an eye on shifts in market structure.
Thanks a lot for your support & best of luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Analysis and Layout of Crude Oil at the Opening of the MarketThe international crude oil market has experienced intense fluctuations. Both Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil have recorded significant declines, dropping by 8.31% and 7.58% respectively. The expectations of OPEC+ production increase, the trade concerns triggered by Trump, and the market's risk aversion sentiment due to the global economic slowdown have become the key factors dominating the trend of oil prices.
The crude oil has corrected and broken below the support line, and there is a high probability that the bearish trend will enter a further acceleration stage. After the initial rise followed by a fall, the demarcation line between the bulls and the bears is around 59.4. If it comes under pressure again, it will indicate the continuation of the future trend. The moving average system is in a bearish arrangement, and it is suppressed by the 30-day moving average. Objectively, the short-term trend direction remains downward. Next week, consider taking short positions around 59.4 and expect further decline.
Analysis of the Market Trend for Next WeekThe price of crude oil futures declined on Friday, falling by approximately 1% during the session, giving back the gains brought about by a brief technical rebound. Bearish demand signals continued to dominate traders' sentiment. The price of crude oil is likely to drop by more than 7% this week, which reflects the growing concerns in the market about the weakening of global demand. Traders remain cautious ahead of the crucial OPEC+ meeting scheduled for May 5th. It is expected that some member states will push for an acceleration of production increases before June. There are reports that Saudi Arabia has hinted that it has no intention of supporting oil prices through a new round of production cuts, which has further intensified the downward pressure on oil prices.
In terms of demand, the market remains skeptical about potential trade negotiations. The Ministry of Commerce of China stated that it is evaluating the proposal put forward by the United States to resume tariff negotiations. Analysts said that the trade environment remains unstable and fraught with uncertainties.
Crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling today. At the same time, the oil price correction broke below the support line, and the bearish trend of oil prices is expected to enter a further acceleration stage. After the rise first and then the fall, the demarcation line between the bulls and bears of oil prices is around $59.3. If it is under pressure again, it will indicate the continuation of the future trend.
USOIL What Next? BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on USOIL and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 58.35 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 60.83
Safe Stop Loss - 57.06
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 58.463 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 59.265 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️