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Oildowntrend

WTI Further downside risk? Commentary: WTI crude: The sharpe sell-off on November 28th may have strengthened the case for further weakness in the short term (5-25 days), the November 28th opening at $76.60 and intra day low at $73.93 followed by a closing price which was below the previous day’s high (November 27th) could be confirmation for a resumption of the November 7th - November 28th downtrend. Current price is below the 20 and 50 day moving averages (bearish); MACD is below its signal line (bearish); multi-week lower tops and lower bottoms on price indicate a downtrend (dow pattern), therefore, short positions can be technically supported for a potential downside target near the $70 round number, provided price can remain below the $83.4 resistance. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SKILLING:XTIUSDShort
by Skilling
USOIL: 80.00 🩸The chart shows the downtrend. After breaking for the second time the support of 87, it will test 86. We will see if it bounces towards 90 or we go to 83 Technical analysis: daily time frame The RSI is bearish. DISCLAIMER: This review is not intended to encourage the buying or selling of any particular security. Furthermore, it should not be the basis of any trading action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly recommended before entering into a trade.
FX:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn9051525
WTI Crude Oil: Bubble burst on the go? Or rocket to space? 25.4Let's be practical. There's 2 ways this can go. (refer back to my 19.4 update about the slip we see in the last few days) 1) Triangle consolidation since the peak of 128 back in March is with a 102.90 resistance level. A breakout above with a daily candle close confirms up-trend breakout and 105, 108, 115 would be immediate possible targets. 2) A breakout below cluster level of supports between 94-96 will be confirmed with a close below 93-94 with a daily candle. This would be high probability bubble burst similar to what we've witnessed back in 2008, 2014 and 2018 with massive $50+ declines. Immediate possible targets would be 88, 84 and 75. Fundamentally speaking, Chinese lockdown as well as India possibly also announcing restrictions soon provides bearish support together with possibility of reserve release from multiple directions (USA, China, SHELL, Aramco, OPEC, etc...). For the bullish fundamentals we have war escalating (already going for 3 month, most probable impact is priced in) and inflation (During 2008 inflation did not help oil keep above 3 figures for more than days). On a personal note - I believe there's higher probability for a breakout down considering above points. I encourage you to do your own research before trading this idea or in general :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow - It would mean the world to me :D I'm open for any question in private or as a comment , don't hesitate to contact me! My goal is to reach out and help as many traders as I can :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Exactus
6
US Oil Retracement (61.01/bbl sept 2019)We should expect to see oil drop. We are approaching almost oversold conditions (RSI), Stochastic is showing the cycle is coming to an end. It's a safe bet we will retrace to the nearest Fib level, which is currently at 61.01/bbl. Time frame: end of September of 2019 into the winter months. This trade is aligning off my prior trade I posted in February for July with 67/bbl price target. Oil companies have to make money this summer, so we should expect to see the price stay relatively the same, and then start cracking to the fib level.
NYMEX:CLM2019Short
by ZakaryP
WTI Oil topped and retraced from support, should shortTVC:USOIL Shorting oil with take-profit target of 50.348 and a stop loss of 52.938. According to the daily chart, oil topped and retraced from R1 resistance in classical pivot points, it hasn't been able to close above this resistance and a major candlestick suggests that, for the short term, oil won't surpass R1. MACD is algo turning bearish, its histogram is approaching to negative value and according to CCI, it's in oversold levels. The price also topped support made by Donchian channels, giving another reason for shorting oil. In the long term, OIl should increase, since Saudi Arabia, other OPEC nations and Russia already started to cut production since the start of the year, so expect this reversal to happen only for the short term
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by francisc11219
5 year oil price fragmentation analysis This is what I see in the future of oil prices Price falls in the long run Why?-How? There are so many things Factors and non-core factors can be mentioned ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Of the non-core factors that are at the bottom of the price starting Coming new technology for future New fuels in the next few years Discovering new oilfields in the world Less affiliates People to oil These are non-essential factors that are high and can not be cited ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- But the main factors that will occur in the future to decrease oil falling down price Can be pointed to: Gaining the value of the American dollar in the world 1) Compared to other countries currency in the world And the weakening of the money in other countries In the next few years Relative to the US dollar. 2) Stronger global knowledge To extract oil faster -Newer technologies to extract Applying new oil extraction technologies 3) Discover new oilfields for extraction with the help of new oil discovery technologies 4) Increasing world oil production 5) *A critical factor in lowering the price of oil in the future: The growth of the US economy and China And the saturation of economic growth between the two countries, the United States and China What is the saturation of economic growth? And what impact does it have on oil prices? The saturation of economic growth means that A country will grow at an over-growth rate When saturated Time correction And the downfall of economic growth And when economic growth goes down The demand for oil in the market also declines Because factories and industries need oil to produce their products And when the rate of economic growth is low Factories and industries reduce demand for oil purchases And this will reduce the price of oil 6) Global politics ---------------------------------------------------------------- So in general it can be In the future, oil prices going down Unless something else happens ---------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for reading ---------------------------------------------------------------- In case of support From analyzes You can help By paying bitcoin-Adress BTC : 3Fu1Uec5JZBcWYqwUGa1eUHYTxAHXG96DY ----------------------------------------------------------------
FX:USOILLong
by jeezyman
3
Multi-year oil price analysis According to price dataThis is what I see in the future of oil prices Price falls in the long run Why?-How? There are so many things Factors and non-core factors can be mentioned ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Of the non-core factors that are at the bottom of the price starting Coming new technology for future New fuels in the next few years Discovering new oilfields in the world Less affiliates People to oil These are non-essential factors that are high and can not be cited ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- But the main factors that will occur in the future to decrease oil falling down price Can be pointed to: Gaining the value of the American dollar in the world 1) Compared to other countries currency in the world And the weakening of the money in other countries In the next few years Relative to the US dollar. 2) Stronger global knowledge To extract oil faster -Newer technologies to extract Applying new oil extraction technologies 3) Discover new oilfields for extraction with the help of new oil discovery technologies 4) Increasing world oil production 5) *A critical factor in lowering the price of oil in the future: The growth of the US economy and China And the saturation of economic growth between the two countries, the United States and China What is the saturation of economic growth? And what impact does it have on oil prices? The saturation of economic growth means that A country will grow at an over-growth rate When saturated Time correction And the downfall of economic growth And when economic growth goes down The demand for oil in the market also declines Because factories and industries need oil to produce their products And when the rate of economic growth is low Factories and industries reduce demand for oil purchases And this will reduce the price of oil 6) Global politics ---------------------------------------------------------------- So in general it can be In the future, oil prices going down Unless something else happens ---------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for reading ---------------------------------------------------------------- In case of support From analyzes You can help By paying bitcoin-Address BTC : 3Fu1Uec5JZBcWYqwUGa1eUHYTxAHXG96DY ----------------------------------------------------------------
FX:USOILLong
by jeezyman
1
Key oil market participants looking for decline in pricesYesterday oil hit the very important level of support, which is the reason for recommendations for its sales in itself. We’ve already noted that October was the worst month for oil over the last few years, what was linked both with an increased supply in the oil market and the slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in the world. According to the start of November, oil is waiting for another difficult month, and we recommend using it to earn. Today we want to pay attention to another interesting moment. Precisely, to the behavior of the key oil market actors. Mexico, which is among the ten largest oil producers in the world in 2018, spent about $1.2 billion on hedging oil supply prices. The government fears a decline in oil prices and is strongly ensuring its exports. Recall, in 2009, after the financial crisis, Mexico received $5 billion from the oil price hedging program. It also received a solid reward from the risk hedging program in 2015, has earned $6.4 billion from a drop in oil prices quotations. And in 2016 - $2.7 billion. Means, the Mexicans feel the oil market very well and manage their risks extremely successfully. We consider this is as another indirect signal, which confirms true to our trading idea - longterm sales of oil. Among other news reaffirming our position it’s worth noting that Russia expressed its willingness to the new post-Soviet’s records in terms of oil production (the current level has already reached 11.4 million b/d), as well as a signal from the United States that some countries will be able to buy Iranian oil without affecting (which partially alleviates market fears about the effect of the US sanction against Iran on the oil market). Well, keep selling the oil and make money on it.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Oil market: Arabia is gaining traction, the USA - inventoriesOil continues to be under pressure and it is well-founded. The last day of October ended for the oil bulls on a minor note, as, indeed, the entire month. By the way, the outcome of October was the worst one since July 2016. We’ve already announced causes: oil producents are gaining the production when the demand can’t keep up, and overall expectations in markets are depressed. Bearing in mind that the general fundamental background is conducive to sales, any news which confirms its feasibility, just make the situation worse. Here are some examples of such news: 1. Oil inventories in the US are growing. In yesterday's review we’ve noted that according to the API, oil reserves in the United States are increasing for the second month in a row. Yesterday's official data confirm this information. This is the sixth week of growth in a row. Such a protracted series of growth stocks in the US have not seen since March 2017. And it hurts oil buyers. 2. Saudi Arabia has brought oil production to 10.7 million b/d, which is close to historical highs. And it appeared, Arabia does not plan to stop there. The point is that Saudi Arabia freights more and more tankers. According to Charles R. Weber, the number of tanker shipments in October increased by 12% to a record 157 vessels, while the results of November may be even more impressive - the loading plan for the first 10 days of the month suggests an increase of 10% relative to October levels. The fact confirming this information is the sharp hike in the cost of freight for supertankers. If a month ago the cost was $18,000 per day, then in just a few weeks it has tripled (!) And now stands at $51,000 (the maximum level since 2017). And finally, let’s note yesterday's data on oil production in the US: in one week it has grown at 300K b/d (!) . The USA is producing 11.2 billion b/d so far. The best confirmation of our previous argument will be even difficult to find. As we can see, there are direct and indirect drivers pointed that the situation on the oil market has changed and changed radically, which means that oil needs to be sold . Actually, we started to voice this long-term idea back in September.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
The output rise in the oil market as a reason for salesOil continues to experience difficulties, and its prices are in the lowest values in the last couple of months. On the factors that pushed prices up in September, oil no longer responds. We are talking about US sanctions against Iran, as well as the continuing economic depression in Venezuela and a significant decline in oil production in the country. Instead of it, investors' concerns about the increased oil supply from key market participants: Russia, the United States, and Saudi Arabia came to the fore. All these countries are producing the maximum amount of oil so far. Moreover, as we wrote earlier, Saudi Arabia has recently pledged about a possibility to compensate losses of oil market due to the decline in exports from Iran. Recall, all this takes place amid investor and analytic concerns about the growth rate of demand in the oil market: the IMF predicts a slowdown in the global economy, and China’s GDP growth rate (the minimum over the last 10 years) shows that these fears are completely material grounds. Do not forget also that current high oil prices are cooling interest of traders in oil purchases. And it also negatively affects the amount of demand in the market. Note also that the problems of both Iran and Venezuela are temporary. That is, in the foreseeable future, we can expect a recovery in oil production in countries, which means that an additional 2-3 million barrels per day may appear on the oil market. This can radically change the balance of supply and demand in the market. Statistics about oil reserves in the USA nevertheless indicates that there is a surplus in the oil market. According to the API, oil reserves in the USA have been growing for 6 weeks in a row (!). So, amid when oil production is growing, while the growth rate of demand is lagging behind, it is reasonable to expect a surplus on the oil market, which will inevitably lead to a fall in prices. And there is a space for oil to fall. Let us remind that a year or two ago, oil prices were fluctuating around $40- $50 per barrel. So our medium-term oil trading recommendation is to sell.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Why selling off oil?Yesterday oil reached its minimum in the past month. It happened amid the information from Saudi Arabia that the country made a pledge to compensate any shortage of oil in the market associated with the US sanctions against Iran. In fact, we are talking about a sharp increase in the production of Saudi Arabia. Which in turn, could trigger a new round of struggle for a share of the oil market, as it was already in 2014. How it ended then, everyone knows (just in case, we remind, oil ended down from $120 to $30 per barrel). Apparently, the United States completely took advantage of a situation with the murder of Saudi journalist at the Saudi Arabian embassy. States has been trying before to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, but the Saudis resisted. So now, it seems that in exchange for the tacit consent of the United States to hush up the murder, they receive from Saudi Arabia a promise to open the oil tap to the maximum. According to various estimates, it is about an increase in oil supply by 1-2 million b/d Taking into account all this is happening amid the IMF’s decrease of the global economic growth, and therefore the slowdown in oil demand, the oil market has all chances not only of forming a full-fledged correction but also of the long-term downtrend. Well, just in case, recall that oil reserves in the United States have been growing for the fifth week in a row and have grown by more than 20 million barrels over the last month. Current events completely fit our forecasts and estimates of the ongoing situation in the oil market. While the drop which we’ve been observing recently - it’s just a beginning of a long descent. So, it's not too late selling the oil and make money on its drop.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Kenji signals: sell OILToday, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily OIL chart generated a sell signal. Let's give some explanations on this signal. This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume . According to the indicator, the price of OIL is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow average is colored red). At the same time, current prices entered the sales zone, which led to the formation of a "sell" signal. This short position remains relevant until either the market conditions change (for example, the downtrend changes to flat or uptrend), or a signal to close it appears (a red cross indicating a strong divergence between the price and average values). Recall, work in a trend is one of the most comfortable and potentially successful trading options. For reference: The "Kenji" indicator is a brand new look at the average analysis. The main problem of most trading strategies and indicators based on the average analysis is a number of false signals in the case of flat and trend reverse (for example, frequent crossings of the averages, frequent changes in the direction of the averages, etc.). As a result, averages analysis cannot show its real power and effectiveness. The Kenji indicator using a unique algorithm avoids the most common average analysis traps and significantly improves the quality of signals by determining the current state of the market (using the color indication "Kenji" shows the current state of the market: red color - downtrend, blue - uptrend, green - flat). It generates signals for comfortable trading in a local trend. The indicator provides information on both the timing position opening and the moments of profit taking. It also helps to determine the level of aggressiveness of a signal. This makes the "Kenji" indicator a very useful tool both for novice and experienced traders.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
The "white" strip in the oil market is dragged outDespite the fundamental breakdown that brings the results of the last meeting of OPEC to the oil market, investors and traders do not have time and opportunity to reevaluate their views on market conditions due to a number of events affecting prices on the oil market. Last week, we already talked about the fact that the shutdown of the oil plant in Fort McMurray (Canada), as well as another oil repartition in Libya, led to the activation of buyers in the oil market. Sanctions against Iran also make market participants nervous. The effect of these news was reinforced by a record decrease in US oil inventories (by more than 9 million barrels, both from API data and official statistics). And the final blow was data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of oil rigs was reduced by 4 units. Note that in the case of statistics from Baker Hughes, the problem is not in the fact of reducing the number of drilling rigs, but in the fact that this information sharply activated conversations that oil production in the US reached its limit (we are talking about so-called infrastructure restrictions that are simply do not allow to move and store oil in large volumes without expansion of existing capacities). Against this background, any news in favor of oil sales were simply lost. These are the statements of Aramco about the intentions to bring oil production up to 10.8 million barrels per day in July. Or, for example, information that the export of oil from the US reached a record 3 million barrels a day. With a production level of 10.9 million barrels per day (only Russia produces more than 11 million barrels per day). Or here another news: BP June 28 announced the purchase of Chargemaster, Britain's largest network of stations for recharging electric vehicles. A number of similar purchases last year made Shell. Cause? The largest oil companies understand that the era of oil is coming to an end. According to their analysts, the market of electric vehicles will grow by 8800% (!) from 2017 to 2040 years. But the participants of the oil market are ignoring the future and prefer to live in the present. So far, buyers and optimism are ruling the oil market. Once again, we note that the soil of this optimism, in our opinion, is rather unstable and is of a temporary nature. Therefore, we continue to recommend the sale of oil. The only correction in the recommendations (relative to our previous report) is to wait until unrestrained optimism begins to weaken. And so, in general, prices have become only more attractive for sales.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
The pressure on oil continues and growsThe white strip for oil seems to have ended. Not a day passes without negative news for oil buyers. Last week ended on a rather minor note - the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US rose again (albeit very slightly, but this was the 11th consecutive week of growth) and reached its highest mark since early 2015. That is, American shale continues to grow. As a result, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Energy, the volume of crude oil production in the US increased by 100,000 barrels a day to a record value of 10.9 million b / d last week. At the same time in the OPEC +camp, on the contrary, reigns disorder and vacillation. The question of extending OPEC + in the current format for 2019 is no longer worth it. By and large, it has already been resolved - at least the format will change in favor of increasing oil production, and as a maximum the contract signers will quarrel among themselves and the agreement will cease to exist altogether. So, on the agenda now is the question of how much will increase the production. This question is no longer: do not increase it or not. And this is a very important shift in emphasis. That is, we have shifted from the stage of "negation" towards the "adoption" stage. Yes, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela threaten to block the initiatives of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but this is the battle of David with Goliath, and the biblical miracle in this case is not expected. So we should expect for the growth if the oil production. And from the side of Russia concrete figures have already been sounded - an increase in production of 1.5 million barrels a day. In fact, this is a waiver from OPEC + (recall, within the framework of the agreement, production was cut by 1.8 million barrels). Given that the growth in oil production in the US and so almost leveled off the efforts of OPEC +, now the bulls for oil will have very tough times. In connection with such a fundamental background and moods on the market, we continue to recommend mid-term sales of oil.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
8