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Oilshort!

Oil Dead Cat Bounce Looking for Proper RejectionThe recent oil dead cat bounce that started at the $45 support level has been struggling and has shown obvious weakness, but the bullish momentum is still intact. This is known by the sequential green count of TD indicator. We are now on a green 7 candle; two more green counts to complete a TD sell setup. However, there is major resistance ahead in the $60 to $63 zone. I will not discuss why I believe this is a dead cat bounce nor why I believe a bottom hasn't formed. The overhead resistance cluster comprises the following: Two established horizontal levels at $60 and $63. The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level when drawn from the $148 high of June 2008. The moving averages: 30-week around $60 and 50-week around $63. Price may either get rejected directly by this resistance cluster or get stuck in that zone until it is squeezed between the 30-week and 50-week moving averages into a golden cross, at which point we need to re-evaluate. However, I find it much more probable to be rejected given the weakness of the current dead cat bounce. If it is rejected, then I believe it will re-test the $45 support level. Check my linked idea on Brent oil futures.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by TechNerdOmar
USOIL 2 Week ForecastThe selling won’t be finished until we reach $50-$47 USOIL. A selloff to $51 USOIL coincides with about $32 OILD If we go below that, towards 50, towards 47, we could see $35+ OILD. For those of you who happen to see this, I’m legitimately curious, how many of you saw this selloff in USOIL coming at $66?? What I’m doing: Buy: anything below $28 really. 26 is good, 24 might not come but I’m gonna try for it. Sell or hold at $32, buy back/buy more on pullback to 27$, sell full @ $35+. This is not investment advice, do your own due diligence.
AMEX:OILDShort
by Hayekian_Fibonacci
2
USOIL 2 Week ForecastA lot more selling to come. Target of $48 USOIL. Consevative target of $50. It looks like this price target could come very fast. So far USOIL & OILD has moved much faster than I anticipated, which is good. What I thought would take 2 weeks only took 2 days (40% move on OILD). This is why its important to do most of your charting & creating your action-plan on the weekend! I’m gonna be short until USOIL hits $35 OILD. Not investment advice. Merely for educational purposes.
TVC:USOILShort
by Hayekian_Fibonacci
Elliott Wave View Calling for More Downside in OilElliott Wave view on Oil (CL_F) suggests a 5 waves decline from April 22 peak ($66.6) which ended wave (1) at $60.04. In the chart below, we can see wave (2) bounce ended at $63.32 at the blue box. The internal of wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from $60.04, wave W ended at $62.95, wave X ended at $60.66, and wave Y ended at $63.32. Oil has since turned lower in wave (3). However, it needs to break below wave (1) at $63.32 to confirm the next leg lower and avoid a double correction. The initial decline from $63.32 appears impulsive and ended wave 1 at $60.64. Wave 2 bounce is in progress to correct the cycle from $63.32 peak before the decline resumes. Potential target for wave 2 is 50% – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1 at $62 – $62.3. We don’t like buying Oil and expect sellers to appear in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at $63.32 stays intact. A break below wave (1) at $63.32 will confirm the next leg lower in CL_F. A 100% extension target from April 22 peak can see Oil reaching $55.3 – $56.8 at least.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
SPX500 Diverging with WTIThis chart tells us a number of important points. First, the S&P 500 is strongly correlated with oil prices, but is now diverging with equities gaining the most ground. This is either extremely troubling or the S&P 500 or quite promising for oil (which is down for today). Second, oil is flashing overbought with RSI oscillator. However, we could also be witnessing former resistance as support in the upward trending channel. Overall, quite divergent signals from oil and equities.
TVC:USOIL
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Commodities are Probably a Bad Way to Track InflationUS President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Stephen Moore, was on Bloomberg this morning touting his unconventional ideas on monetary policy. During the interview, he suggested the Philip’s Curve was broken (it somewhat is) and that instead the Federal Reserve should focus on the relationship between inflation expectations and commodities, a pitch that inevitably leads down the path towards the reintegration of the gold standard. This begs the question though, is there a relationship between inflation and commodities? It’s difficult to say since we do not have precise data, however we do have data on inflation expectations. Moreover, we can use the Western Asset Inflation ETF as a proxy which is a derivative of various inflation-tied assets such as inflation-linked treasury bonds in the US, a strong correlative with expected inflation. We can see that Moore is somewhat correct in his notion when it comes to gold, oil, and soybeans. However, there is a problem with this idea primarily that commodity prices can dramatically fluctuate on a weekly basis whereas consumer inflation (the primary measurement of inflation) does not. While expected inflation tends to be correlated with actual inflation, it is difficult to determine which commodities we should use to track inflation. The best which come to mind are obviously oil and gold, but beyond those two staple commodities its less clear. Soybeans are a good candidate, but perhaps we are suffering from confirmation bias since the correlation seems to be tight. What about lumber, sugar, or natural gas? Are these not commonly used commodities which could be used as proxies for price increases? Yes, but adding those to the mix significantly muddies this commodities-based approach and these are two commonly used commodities. Volatility is extremely high in these markets as can be seen with sugar spiking in 2016, lumber spiking in early 2018 and natural gas spiking in late 2018. This brings us to the crux of another problem with the commodities-based inflation relationship; just because prices increase on the market does not mean that prices are transferred to the consumer. This concept is called pass-through and the IMF found that very little pass-through occurs during commodity price shocks to the consumer meaning that you cannot actually use commodity prices as a proxy for actual inflation. The bottom line is that macroeconomics is quite complex. The Philip’s Curve and its counterpart the Augmented Philip’s Curve worked for a long time until they didn’t. Clearly, economists need to develop a better theory on what drives inflation. However, commodity prices are not that explanation. Time to keep looking.
TVC:USOIL
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
If Oil Continues to Surge, Bitcoin May As WellBITFINEX:BTCUSD is clearly a more interesting asset recently with a 16 percent surge in just one trading day. Another asset that displays similar attributes is oil. Both should be considered risk-on investments given the beta or variance (assuming a normal distribution in an ordinary least square model) which both assets display. While oil gives us more insights into global growth, Bitcoin can provide an alternative mode in which investors can diversify especially those younger investors looking for higher gains with higher risk given the time horizon for market departure/retirement. Obviously the relationship is not always consistently positive and when it turns negative it is not consistently oil increasing while Bitcoin decreases or Bitcoin increasing while oil decreases. Nonetheless, the relationship mostly exhibits a positive correlation coefficient in conjunction with similar standard deviations assuming an ordinary least square model. The question remains though as to how long this surge risk-on appetite can be maintained and if the growth in high beta assets is merely speculative and wrong-headed or if there are more broader and positive macroeconomic trends that are reversing the volatility that struck markets in December.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Either Stocks Crash, or Oil RalliesWe are basically exactly where we were at in October 2018. About the same things for US equities. But why the divergence with US equities outperforming oil? Look what happened last time stocks become too zealous in January 2018. Correction downward to a near parity in percentage gains. Either stocks are going to readjust or oil is just going to go crazy in the next few weeks. My question is, where is the conviction, where is the demand (weak EU, weak China, weak EMs) and what are the fundamentals driving markets forward? I'm really opened, but color me skeptical.
TVC:USOIL
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3