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Oilshort!

OIl market: the current state and perspectives in 20192019 the oil market meets in a kind of depressive state. Over the past two to three months oil prices declined more than 30%, so investors’ sentiment consequently is rather gloomy. A rather symptomatic phenomenon was the massive decrease in forecasts by analysts at the very beginning of 2019. For example, Societe Generale Bank lowered the price forecast for WTI in 2019 by $9 to $57.25 per barrel, that is, by 8.6%. Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered their forecast for Brent by 11%, and for WTI - by 14%. Causes of bearish sentiment Two key factors, which stimulate sales in the oil market, can be distinguished. Firs one refers to demand, the second one - to supply in the oil market. Talking about oil demand in 2019, the question arose about prospects of economic growth generally in the world, and prospects look bad. Accordingly, the slowdown of the world economy would provoke the decline of oil demand. Last economic data from China, which has been an engine of the global economy for many years, show that the Chinese economy is slowing down. Do not either forget about global changes in the world - the growth of the market of electric vehicles and sharp and active development of alternative energy. All these has its negative influence on the demand in the oil market. As for supply in the oil market, the key parties of the oil market (Russia, USA, and Saudi Arabia) produce the oil on the maximal historical levels. The US shales are in excellent shape, as evidenced by both the overall record volumes of oil production and export from the USA and the number of active drilling rigs. It is also significant to solve the infrastructure problem in the United States (pipelines have reached maximum performance and cannot pass more oil), which will allow increasing the volume of oil production in the United States much more. Besides, massive long-standing projects in Brazil and Canada allow precisely in 2019 considerably to build up the oil production in these countries. It means the supply in the oil market increases, and it has a defective impact on the oil quotations. What can make a difference The new OPEC+, in theory, can lead to a change in oil market conditions in 2019. Recall the countries have agreed to reduce oil production by 1.2 million barrels. And this is enough volume to change the balance in the oil market in favor of buyers. Negotiations between the USA and China are able to bury the trading war hatchet between countries, what may well lead to the improvement of the perspective of the economic growth not only in China and the US but in the whole world. This, in turn, will provoke an increase in oil demand and oil prices consequently. Besides, technically, the correction in the oil market is already overdue. Last but not least, in long- and mid-term perspective oil’s sales look the most preferred. But short-term dynamics will be determined by current market sentiment, which so far is more likely on the buyers' side.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
US Oil – Long Term DOWNThis is a wild guess, and I cannot be sure the same pattern will follow. It is for educational only and please feel free to share your opinion and thoughts, whether you agree or disagree with this observation. In 2008, oil fell from its all-time high from @ $144 to $36 (~75%), and then oil dropped again in 2014 from $107 to $29 (~73%). If the previous two drops are indicators of this one, we can assume oil going to $20, which is about 70% of its recent high and another 55% drop from current level. This cycle should complete within in the next 4-6 months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Master4
2
USOIL Possible Bear Continuation Targets USOIL is being well supplied after pulling back to the grand 45 degree line coming down from the top. If 5000-5050 area fails, the bear case becomes more relevant. Assuming pre mortem conditions, the inventory report turning this around and supply being dried up by incoming new demand, it is reasonable to look for entry opportunities on the lower timeframes. It's better to get out after being proven wrong shortly after entry than hold the bag for who knows how long.
TVC:USOILShort
by Zoen_Trieste
CRUDE OIL ON A SUPER BEAR TREND CYCLE? INSIGHT FULLY EXPLAINED!If you have been paying attention to oil then you would have noticed prices dropped from $76 to $54 in the space of a month and even more impressive is the very recent drop of $6+ in the span of around 24hrs, which was a jaw dropper for me. Just 2 months ago when market was still slowly climbing uphill I had outlined support areas for when market goes into retracement, which can also serve as resistance areas depending on your outlook. Little did I know we were soon to go into a huge and fast bear trend. Now as market has been dropping, it has smashed through much (though not all) of my support/resistance lines which are usually depicted with yellow lines on my chart. So upon observing this major drop, I had to take a closer look at market beyond the daily here to see what weekly and monthly depicted and I saw the bigger picture in motion. Prices were exactly at these levels in November last year so current prices is not a coincidence. Market is following its steps back and as a super bear trend, the chances of market to continue on path to its history looks very much likely. Bear trend was also confirmed on the weekly with the double top that played out when market hit mid $70s twice before finally taking an official downturn. You can see both tops are in alignment where the candle bodies are aligned, this is highlighted by my pink line in the chart and also labled. Double Top: The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation. The formation is completed and confirmed when the price falls below the neck line, indicating that further price decline is imminent or highly likely. en.wikipedia.org Now on the weekly based on it's history, the bottom of current support is $56 with the wick down to $54, hence why we see market swimming at current prices, but I believe this will not hold and after some retracement going up that is in high order, market will continue on its sinking path and the next support is at $45 with the candle wick all the way down at $41. After this, next support is $33 with wick all the way down to $25 and this ladies and gents is where the super bull trend cycle originally started it's journey. Also, looking at the CM_Ult_Macd indicator, this was first to highlight the bear trend, first on the daily, then weekly and past few days the monthly MacD just broke into a bear too, next indicator is the CM_Ultimate_MA, this usually depicts bear trend slower than the MacD but it is bear on the weekly, yet to depict on the monthly. Also prices are inside ichimoku cloud on the monthly which does not look good for the upside while the weekly and daily view have prices under the cloud which indicates market to be in bear trend on those outlooks. So it would seem prices are pretty much bear and the only thing barely holding prices up is monthly outlook. Now for the retracement going up(which is in high order), we may possibly see $58/59, but if a wick is decided to form on the monthly view it may take us into the $60s but would stick to the lower end of $60s. This retracement may or may not play out, so not guaranteed but hopefully it does so I can get a better sell position for more profit as I unfortunately exited my sell at $58 prior to seeing the bigger picture at play. Now I charted this using weekly outlook to show the double top and why market sits at current prices but will shortly update with the bigger picture that ties everything together, which is the monthly view. Here you should better see why the target prices are chosen on a further drop so stay tuned. Here is a chart i made putting together with a few well-crafted indicators by some great creators on tradingview. It allows you to tail trail oil market intraday on the 3 minute view. I hope many of you find this helpful, i use it to trade myself :) www.tradingview.com Here is a link to understand better what this little tail trailer will be showing you. en.wikipedia.org Furthers Tips; Alternative to trading Crude Oil is Brent Oil, this market moves like an identical twin to Crude they mirror images of eachother. Polar opposite to both markets is Natural Gas, this market moves in the complete opposite to Crude and Brent atleast 90% of the time so although I am yet to analyze NG market, it has not failed to meet expectations in contrast to crude movement in the past year of my observations. Also Apple Market is another market I've been trading the past 2 months, prices have been sinking and I see a bottom of 160s which should playout within the next 4months so watch that space closely. You can either get in on further drop or if not confident then wait for bottom and get in to buy market up when it gets back to bull trend. If you have enough funds and want to be like Warren Buffett, invest and HODL for the long term, then look for markets that have bottomed out, get in and hold for years because the only way is up, one of many I spotted is Platinum, which i will link my chart to this post, feel free to check it out. Oh and the period for crypto to take a turn for the upside is upon us again so look into that. If you notice, many markets are on a superbear cycle and I predicted beginning of this year that markets are due for a crash and once this happens, much of the money will jump into crypto. Now call me intuitive but I see this has started playing out in the past few months. Look at major stock markets! If it helps, I am a hodler in Tron, Bitcoin, Ripple and few others via binance platform. DISCLAIMER; Do set stop losses when trading but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders. All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire. IF YOU SUPPORT MY IDEAS THEN LIKE, FOLLOW & SHARE.
TVC:USOIL
by Dani0
4
Key oil market participants looking for decline in pricesYesterday oil hit the very important level of support, which is the reason for recommendations for its sales in itself. We’ve already noted that October was the worst month for oil over the last few years, what was linked both with an increased supply in the oil market and the slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in the world. According to the start of November, oil is waiting for another difficult month, and we recommend using it to earn. Today we want to pay attention to another interesting moment. Precisely, to the behavior of the key oil market actors. Mexico, which is among the ten largest oil producers in the world in 2018, spent about $1.2 billion on hedging oil supply prices. The government fears a decline in oil prices and is strongly ensuring its exports. Recall, in 2009, after the financial crisis, Mexico received $5 billion from the oil price hedging program. It also received a solid reward from the risk hedging program in 2015, has earned $6.4 billion from a drop in oil prices quotations. And in 2016 - $2.7 billion. Means, the Mexicans feel the oil market very well and manage their risks extremely successfully. We consider this is as another indirect signal, which confirms true to our trading idea - longterm sales of oil. Among other news reaffirming our position it’s worth noting that Russia expressed its willingness to the new post-Soviet’s records in terms of oil production (the current level has already reached 11.4 million b/d), as well as a signal from the United States that some countries will be able to buy Iranian oil without affecting (which partially alleviates market fears about the effect of the US sanction against Iran on the oil market). Well, keep selling the oil and make money on it.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Oil market: Arabia is gaining traction, the USA - inventoriesOil continues to be under pressure and it is well-founded. The last day of October ended for the oil bulls on a minor note, as, indeed, the entire month. By the way, the outcome of October was the worst one since July 2016. We’ve already announced causes: oil producents are gaining the production when the demand can’t keep up, and overall expectations in markets are depressed. Bearing in mind that the general fundamental background is conducive to sales, any news which confirms its feasibility, just make the situation worse. Here are some examples of such news: 1. Oil inventories in the US are growing. In yesterday's review we’ve noted that according to the API, oil reserves in the United States are increasing for the second month in a row. Yesterday's official data confirm this information. This is the sixth week of growth in a row. Such a protracted series of growth stocks in the US have not seen since March 2017. And it hurts oil buyers. 2. Saudi Arabia has brought oil production to 10.7 million b/d, which is close to historical highs. And it appeared, Arabia does not plan to stop there. The point is that Saudi Arabia freights more and more tankers. According to Charles R. Weber, the number of tanker shipments in October increased by 12% to a record 157 vessels, while the results of November may be even more impressive - the loading plan for the first 10 days of the month suggests an increase of 10% relative to October levels. The fact confirming this information is the sharp hike in the cost of freight for supertankers. If a month ago the cost was $18,000 per day, then in just a few weeks it has tripled (!) And now stands at $51,000 (the maximum level since 2017). And finally, let’s note yesterday's data on oil production in the US: in one week it has grown at 300K b/d (!) . The USA is producing 11.2 billion b/d so far. The best confirmation of our previous argument will be even difficult to find. As we can see, there are direct and indirect drivers pointed that the situation on the oil market has changed and changed radically, which means that oil needs to be sold . Actually, we started to voice this long-term idea back in September.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
The output rise in the oil market as a reason for salesOil continues to experience difficulties, and its prices are in the lowest values in the last couple of months. On the factors that pushed prices up in September, oil no longer responds. We are talking about US sanctions against Iran, as well as the continuing economic depression in Venezuela and a significant decline in oil production in the country. Instead of it, investors' concerns about the increased oil supply from key market participants: Russia, the United States, and Saudi Arabia came to the fore. All these countries are producing the maximum amount of oil so far. Moreover, as we wrote earlier, Saudi Arabia has recently pledged about a possibility to compensate losses of oil market due to the decline in exports from Iran. Recall, all this takes place amid investor and analytic concerns about the growth rate of demand in the oil market: the IMF predicts a slowdown in the global economy, and China’s GDP growth rate (the minimum over the last 10 years) shows that these fears are completely material grounds. Do not forget also that current high oil prices are cooling interest of traders in oil purchases. And it also negatively affects the amount of demand in the market. Note also that the problems of both Iran and Venezuela are temporary. That is, in the foreseeable future, we can expect a recovery in oil production in countries, which means that an additional 2-3 million barrels per day may appear on the oil market. This can radically change the balance of supply and demand in the market. Statistics about oil reserves in the USA nevertheless indicates that there is a surplus in the oil market. According to the API, oil reserves in the USA have been growing for 6 weeks in a row (!). So, amid when oil production is growing, while the growth rate of demand is lagging behind, it is reasonable to expect a surplus on the oil market, which will inevitably lead to a fall in prices. And there is a space for oil to fall. Let us remind that a year or two ago, oil prices were fluctuating around $40- $50 per barrel. So our medium-term oil trading recommendation is to sell.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
USOil ShortEntered a little late, but riding the bearish momentum between now and US crude oil news tomorrow (and might re-enter again afterwards). Setting up a short stop order few pips below the 0 fib line, with 1st TP @65.57 (previous 100 fib level in weekly chart, and R2 pivot line in the daily chart). Most likely will add a trailing SL and adjust TP between 60-65 if bearish momentum continues further especially weekly chart is showing a shooting star and double top. www.wsj.com edition.cnn.com Daily: Weekly: Confidence: B (might suddenly rally before the news tomorrow, will have to manually close before the crude oil news to avoid getting whipsawed and re-enter afterwards)
TVC:USOILShort
by aiza_belle
Why selling off oil?Yesterday oil reached its minimum in the past month. It happened amid the information from Saudi Arabia that the country made a pledge to compensate any shortage of oil in the market associated with the US sanctions against Iran. In fact, we are talking about a sharp increase in the production of Saudi Arabia. Which in turn, could trigger a new round of struggle for a share of the oil market, as it was already in 2014. How it ended then, everyone knows (just in case, we remind, oil ended down from $120 to $30 per barrel). Apparently, the United States completely took advantage of a situation with the murder of Saudi journalist at the Saudi Arabian embassy. States has been trying before to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, but the Saudis resisted. So now, it seems that in exchange for the tacit consent of the United States to hush up the murder, they receive from Saudi Arabia a promise to open the oil tap to the maximum. According to various estimates, it is about an increase in oil supply by 1-2 million b/d Taking into account all this is happening amid the IMF’s decrease of the global economic growth, and therefore the slowdown in oil demand, the oil market has all chances not only of forming a full-fledged correction but also of the long-term downtrend. Well, just in case, recall that oil reserves in the United States have been growing for the fifth week in a row and have grown by more than 20 million barrels over the last month. Current events completely fit our forecasts and estimates of the ongoing situation in the oil market. While the drop which we’ve been observing recently - it’s just a beginning of a long descent. So, it's not too late selling the oil and make money on its drop.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
4