Oilshort!
I've just sold OILI've just sold OIL right now.
Oil is ranging into some sort of a range into a downtrend. We are now at the higher part of this range and yesterday we got a nice pinbar on the daily chart.
The bottom of this range is 53 so it give us a decent reward/risk ratio.
On the 1H chart we are just below the pivot and we have a great divergence with the MACD.
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Oil - Zig Zag Correction to $32Between October 2017 and the beginning of 2019, we have seen a 5 wave move from the mid 70's to the low 40's.
Any move that starts with a 5 wave move will end with and at least an equal 5 to complete what is called a Zig Zag pattern.
The was a correction back to test the bottom of the previous wave. This didn't complete a 5 wave move, therefore this must be a 3 wave corrective move, which is the pattern that
sits in the middle of a Zig Zag. An equal move for the top of the 3 wave pattern put the target for oil at $32.
This is confirmed by the RSI failing to get over 60 and forming a double top formation. The entry begin the crossing of the RSI moving averages.
We also saw a large move in the Composite Index, were price did not follow (purple arrow) and a divergence with the RSI giving weight to the analysis.
Any time a indicator moves a great distance and price does not move, and your position is in the direction of the indicator, you are on the wrong side of the market.
This target of $32 is very conservative, as some Zig Zag patterns can run to 1.618 % of the first 5 wave move.
We won't see oil sit a this level for very long, as Zig Zag corrections are a quick and fast way for the market correct, before making a
larger move higher.
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From the chart we can see that this week price broke though our trend line after respecting our resistance zone yesterday, price fell out the sky yesterday afternoon the bears must have been in a hurry, but now we can see bulls taking over for a while and pushing price back up to retest our trend line which just happens to fall in our resistance zone making this a strong setup for a sell.
So we are looking for a re test of our trend line before entering.
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From the chart we can see that this week price broke though our trend line after respecting our resistance zone yesterday, price fell out the sky yesterday afternoon the bears must have been in a hurry, but now we can see bulls taking over for a while and pushing price back up to retest our trend line which just happens to fall in our resistance zone making this a strong setup for a sell.
So we are looking for a re test of our trend line before entering.
US Oil Retracement (61.01/bbl sept 2019)We should expect to see oil drop. We are approaching almost oversold conditions (RSI), Stochastic is showing the cycle is coming to an end. It's a safe bet we will retrace to the nearest Fib level, which is currently at 61.01/bbl. Time frame: end of September of 2019 into the winter months. This trade is aligning off my prior trade I posted in February for July with 67/bbl price target. Oil companies have to make money this summer, so we should expect to see the price stay relatively the same, and then start cracking to the fib level.