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XOM : Open long before the Flag breakout !Exxon Mobil, major oil company, has just published its quarterly results. Its profits went down (2.7b$ vs 4.2b$ the previous year). Its cost reduction has not compensated the lower margins due falling oil prices. Due to this, the stock has opened today with a bearish gap and has drawn a shadow at 85.50$ which is the lower bound of the flag. Technically, we can now expect the stock to go up for the few next trading sessions because : - mid term trend is upside , as shown by the ascending trendline support - the flag is a continuation pattern ; the stock entered it from below, thus it is likely to exit by the top (theorical target indicated on the chart) - the today's bounce took place at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upside wave (first blue arrow). Here is the long strategy : - open long at current price (86.09$ approx) - stop @ 84.20$ (just below the 62.8% retracement, i.e. the last bottom) - target @ 88.80$ as a security (expecting the theorical target of the flag to be reached seems to unlikely to happen) Feel free to leave a comment about this idea !
NYSE:XOMLong
by AlexandreNygal
2
Total (FPP) : Open short ! The major resistance blocks buyersThe french blue chip Total (FP, 111b € of Market Cap), from the oil industry, is inside a bearish dynamic since June 2014. This is characterized by lower tops and lower bottoms. Currently, the buyers seemed to have taken back the advantage, but the Major resistance area at 45.00€ is still preventing the stock from going higher . As long as this level is not passed, the long term trend such as the mid term one will remain bearish. The 200 days Moving average shows that Total is still inside the downside direction ; it does not reverse durably. For the blue trendlines : I always consider horizontal levels as the most important ones for trading ; the blue trendlines are just to show the pace of dynamics. A breakout of this type of line is not a sufficient indication to make a trade. Because we are still in a bearish trend , with in addition to that the proximity with a major resistance area , it seems to be a great opportunity to open a short trade at the current price (44.15€ approx.) : - stop @ 45.20€ - first target @ 43€ (to close 50% of the position) (Reward/Risk = 1.09) - second target @ 41.60€ (to close the other 50% of the position). (Reward/Risk = 2.42) Don't hesitate to share your view about this stock in comments !
EURONEXT:TTEShort
by AlexandreNygal
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future. Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by runningalpha