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Onchain_analysis

Watch Ethereum's MVRVThe MVRV is a metric that compares the current market value of an asset to its realized value, offering insight into potential overvaluation or undervaluation. This is a great indicator because it helps identify points of extreme market sentiment—whether assets are trading above or below what most investors paid for them. When MVRV is high, assets are generally overvalued, signaling potential profit-taking phases, while lower MVRV values often indicate undervaluation and possible buying opportunities. Currently, CRYPTOCAP:ETH MVRV hovers around 1.2 , suggesting that Ethereum’s market value is slightly above its realized value. Historically, ETH has bottomed out when MVRV dips below 1 , as it indicates capitulation among investors and a favorable accumulation phase. If ETH's price trends lower, it could suggest an upcoming period of opportunity for value-focused investors . On the flip side, MVRV readings above 2— particularly in the 2-3 range —indicate an overheated ETH price. At this level, ETH tends to be overextended, marking a range to watch for potential rallies nearing their peak. Keeping this threshold in mind can help spot when a cooling phase might be on the horizon.
INDEX:ETHUSD
by IntoTheBlock
Strategic Bitcoin Accumulation & Market Insights: October 2024 Current Price : INDEX:BTCUSD $61,898 🚀 --- 1. Overview of Price and Market Dynamics Price Action : Bitcoin is trading at $61,898 , showcasing strong momentum. Market dynamics reflect a balance between whale accumulation 🐋 and short-term speculative movements 📊. The price has consolidated after breaking key support, with large holders dominating market activity. --- 2. Accumulation Zones 🛑 Whales have been steadily accumulating in the $55,000 - $58,000 range 🐋, signaling strong confidence in future price appreciation 📈. This zone will act as a significant support level in case of any pullbacks. - Accumulation Zone : $55,000 - $58,000 - Observation : This zone has the highest concentration of buy orders, making it a critical support area. --- 3. Distribution Zones 📈 The primary resistance zone is located between $65,000 and $67,000 . Sell-side pressure is expected to increase as short-term traders take profits 💰. Watch for increased volatility in this zone. - Distribution Zone : $65,000 - $67,000 - Observation : Significant resistance at this level could trigger a short-term pullback. --- 4. Accumulation Strategy 📊 Where : The ideal accumulation range is between $58,000 - $60,000 , where whales are heavily positioned. Large holders are removing Bitcoin from exchanges and storing it in cold wallets 🧊. When : Accumulate during periods of low volatility. Exchange outflows indicate fewer people selling Bitcoin, providing a strong buy signal 🔥. How : Use a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach between $58,000 - $60,000 to mitigate volatility. Set stop-losses below $55,000 to protect your capital. --- 5. Distribution Strategy 💡 Where : Consider selling around $65,000 - $67,000 , where strong resistance is expected 🛑. This area has previously seen significant sell orders, creating a potential distribution zone for traders. When : Look to distribute as Bitcoin nears the $65,000 resistance level. Failure to break this level will likely lead to a pullback 📉. How : Use limit sell orders slightly below $65,000 to maximize profits. Long-term holders can consider partial distribution to lock in gains while riding the next potential wave upward 🚀. --- 6. Whale Activity and On-Chain Metrics 🐋 Whales have been accumulating Bitcoin steadily between $55,000 - $58,000 . The reduced exchange inflows indicate large holders are moving assets off-exchange 🧊, preparing for a long-term hold. Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) have been increasing, further confirming long-term accumulation. Actions : - Accumulate with Whales : Buy within the whale accumulation zone between $58,000 - $60,000 . - Monitor Exchange Inflows : Decreasing inflows are a bullish signal for future price appreciation. --- 7. Key Technical Indicators 📊 - Support : $55,000 - $58,000 - Resistance : $65,000 - $67,000 Volume : Volume is building around the $58,000 - $60,000 range, indicating steady accumulation 📉. RSI : RSI is neutral, meaning Bitcoin is not yet overbought. Momentum is building for a potential breakout above $65,000 . --- 8. Derivatives and Open Interest Analysis 📈 Open Interest : Bitcoin open interest remains elevated in futures markets, signaling heavy speculative activity. A potential price move above $65,000 could trigger liquidations 🚨. Funding Rates : Funding rates are neutral, meaning long and short positions are relatively balanced. This suggests that traders expect further price gains, but not extreme volatility. --- 9. Take Profit and Stop Loss Levels 📉 Take Profit Levels : - $65,000 - $67,000 : Ideal take-profit zone for short-term traders 📈. - $70,000 : Secondary take-profit target for those expecting a strong breakout. Stop-Loss Levels : - $55,000 : Place stop-losses just below this level if accumulating around $58,000 . This ensures capital protection in case of a downside move 📉. --- 10. Final Observations and Strategy Summary 🔍 Why : Whale accumulation, decreasing exchange inflows, and strong on-chain activity suggest that Bitcoin is entering the final stages of accumulation. A breakout above $65,000 could drive prices toward $70,000 . Where : Focus on buying in the $58,000 - $60,000 range and aim to sell near $65,000 - $67,000 . Long-term holders should continue holding. When : Look for accumulation during periods of low volatility and outflows. Distribute near resistance zones and take profits at critical levels. --- Strategic Actions : 1. Buy : Accumulate between $58,000 - $60,000 . 2. Sell : Take profits near $65,000 - $67,000 . 3. Hold : Long-term holders should maintain positions, as whale activity points to future upside 📊.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradeGod_1111
Hamster Combat (HMSTR) Analysis: Acc, Dist & Whale Activity 💡 Overview : Hamster Combat BITGET:HMSTRUSDT.P is currently presenting some strong opportunities for both accumulation and distribution . Based on key technical indicators and on-chain analysis, we have identified significant support zones for buying, as well as resistance levels for taking profits. --- Price and Market Dynamics: 📊 Current Price Levels : HMSTR has recently traded between $0.0045 and $0.0065 , showing that the market is cycling between accumulation (buying) and distribution (selling). - Accumulation Zone : This is where buyers are entering the market, typically in the price range of $0.0045 - $0.0055 . This zone is a support level , meaning the price tends to bounce off these levels because there is high buying demand. - Distribution Zone : This is where sellers (including large holders or whales) are exiting their positions, pushing the price down. For HMSTR, this zone lies at $0.0060 and above . This is a resistance level , meaning that as the price rises, it tends to hit this ceiling and fall back down due to increased selling pressure. --- 📈 Accumulation Strategy: - When to Buy : Accumulate HMSTR in the range of $0.0045 to $0.0055 , where it's supported by buy orders and the market sees it as undervalued. - Why this matters : This is a low-risk entry point because the downside is limited by the strong support here. - How to do it : Place buy orders in the accumulation zone and plan to hold through the coming upward move. --- ### 📉 Distribution Strategy: - When to Sell : The distribution zone lies at **$0.0065 and above**, where whales start to exit their positions. If you're holding, this is an ideal zone to take profits . - Why this matters : Selling in this zone locks in profits before the price faces resistance and selling pressure pushes it back down. - How to do it : Sell a portion of your holdings as the price approaches $0.0065 - $0.0070 , where we see heavy whale activity. --- ### 🐋 Whale Activity: - Whales (large holders) have been accumulating between $0.0050 and $0.0060 , signaling their belief in the asset's long-term value. When whales accumulate, it typically means they expect the price to rise. - However, whale outflows are being observed near $0.0070 , meaning these large holders are taking profits here. This creates strong resistance at that level. --- ⚙️ Key Technical Indicators: 1. MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) : - Low MVRV signals that HMSTR is undervalued , a prime accumulation opportunity. - Action : Buy when MVRV is low for long-term growth. 2. NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transaction Volume) : - A declining NVT means the network is growing faster than the transaction volume, often signaling a bullish market. - Action : Look for long positions as network strength increases. --- 📊 Take Profit and Stop Loss Levels: - Take Profit : - Short-Term : Sell at $0.0065 (previous resistance). - Medium-Term : Sell more at $0.0070 (whale exit point). - Stop Loss : - Conservative traders should place a stop loss at $0.0047 . - Aggressive traders can place it at $0.0050 for tighter risk control. --- Derivatives and Open Interest Analysis 📈: - Open Interest is rising, indicating that more traders are entering the market, particularly in the derivatives space . - Positive funding rates further suggest that long positions are dominating . - Action : Expect potential price volatility due to this interest; ensure you're managing risk with stop losses and setting take profits at key resistance zones. --- Mini Report: Hamster Combat (HMSTR) is showing clear accumulation and distribution patterns based on whale activity and technical indicators. Accumulation is ideal between $0.0045 and $0.0055 , where whales and long-term holders are buying in. The distribution zone begins around $0.0065 , with selling pressure intensifying near $0.0070 due to whale outflows. Key technical indicators, such as the MVRV Ratio (signaling undervaluation) and the NVT Ratio (reflecting network growth), support a bullish outlook in the short term. However, risk management is essential, with stop losses recommended at $0.0047 for conservative traders. Actions Explained: : - 📉 Accumulation (Buying) : This is when you want to enter at lower prices, like the $0.0045 to $0.0055 range, because the market sees value here. The price is supported, and there's more buying pressure. - 📈 Distribution (Selling) : Here’s where you take profits as the price hits $0.0065 - $0.0070 because whales are selling, creating resistance. - 🐋 Whale Activity : Whales are big players who can move markets. When they accumulate, it’s a bullish signal, but when they sell at $0.0070 , it creates resistance . - 💰 Take Profits and 🛑 Stop Losses : Set take profits at key resistance points to lock in gains and use stop losses to protect yourself from market drops. --- This detailed plan, backed by on-chain data and whale activity, offers a roadmap for navigating the HMSTR market. 📊 Follow the price zones and manage your risk , and you'll be set up for a successful trade... TradeGod_1111...
Long
by TradeGod_1111
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders' Selling Stagnates: A signal to WatchLong-term Bitcoin holders currently control approximately 12.6 million CRYPTOCAP:BTC , and historical patterns make this group a key indicator of Bitcoin's market cycle phases. As Bitcoin approached its new all-time high earlier this year, there was a sharp decline in the holdings of long-term holders. However, this decline has recently stabilized, suggesting a potential turning point. While this could be a temporary pause, it's valuable to compare this pattern with similar historical periods. The marked periods in 2019 and 2013 show a similar trend , where a multi-month drawdown followed a rally. In both cases, despite the downturns, Bitcoin eventually went on to establish new highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IntoTheBlock
Bitcoin On-Chain: Is The Cycle Over Already?In this analysis I want to discuss a (most likely) unpopular view on the market. Namely, that the "cycle" is already over and that the peak is in for now. Preface This is not my most likely outcome for the markets. You can find my most likely outcome below: Still, it's always advised to keep an open mind and explore different potential outcomes. Overview When we look at the last 7-8 years of Bitcoin's newly created addresses we can see that this value follows a clear boom-and-bust pattern. It peaks (green) during mania when everyone wants to step into the market and it declines after the market has topped (red). For the people who are wondering about the November 2021 peak: on-chain data peaked in Q1-2021. What this chart suggests is that the "mania" phase of the market cycle is over and that the top is either in or very close. Once the mania phase is over, crazy gains are more rare and trading is more difficult. I'm interested to hear your thoughts on this idea. Like I said, it's not my most likely outcome, but it's possible that we've topped after the ETF mania.
BShort
by FieryTrading
35
🚀 Catch the Classic Rise: ETCUSD Long Trade Alert! 🚀Hello, Traders! Looking to spice up your portfolio with a flavor of classic gains? Let's break down why Ethereum Classic (ETCUSD) is gearing up for a notable uptrend and why you might not want to miss out! Current Summary for ETCUSD Currently, there's no direct news about Ethereum Classic, but we can contextualize its position in the broader crypto market. Recent significant crypto transactions involve a whale depositing a substantial amount of ETH into Binance. This action signals potential volatility or strategic positioning in the market, which indirectly affects all related cryptocurrencies, including ETC. For example, a whale deposited 11,550 ETH into Binance, worth about $37 million. This move might suggest a preparation for price movement or a strategic shift in holdings. Such large-scale activities often impact market sentiment and can lead to price fluctuations across the board, including for Ethereum Classic. 🐋 Although these activities primarily involve Ethereum, they reflect general market behaviors that could influence Ethereum Classic, given their shared blockchain heritage and investor base. Why Go Long on ETCUSD? Ethereum Classic's transaction value in USD recently dipped to a noteworthy low of $523.06. Why care? Historically, such lows have been the catapults for upward price trends. This isn't just a hunch — data dives deep! Big Data Insights 📊: On-chain metrics have shown a pattern — when certain metrics fall, ETC tends to bounce back stronger, much like a phoenix rising from its ashes. Here’s the scoop: Transaction Value USD : Below $1150.6 Puell Multiple : Below 1.3 (52-day change below -0.1) Total Fees in USD : Below $70 Each time these conditions were met historically, ETCUSD saw a median price increase of 24.19% over the following three months. We've crunched numbers from 11 similar past events, showing an impressive 85% of those periods ended in price surges. 💹 Price Projections: 1 Week : $27.4473 📈 2 Weeks : $27.9672 📈 1 Month : $30.4003 📈 3 Months : $33.7996 📈 6 Months : $36.3007 📈 Trade Strategy: Take Profit: $34.7601 Stop Loss: $24.605 🌟 Why Follow This Trade? It's backed by consistent historical data, promising a high accuracy and attractive risk-reward ratio. This isn’t just trading—it’s trading with the wisdom of the crowd, refined through big data! Let's ride the wave of historical momentum with Ethereum Classic. Are you in? Drop a comment, share your views, or toss a like if you're ready to catch the classic rise! 🌊🏄
BINANCE:ETCUSDLong
by WealthRay
🔥 Bitcoin On-Chain: Completely Normal Correction!In this analysis we talk more about yesterday's analysis where I discussed the completely normal correction that BTC has been seeing. Furthermore, chances are that we will see more of those correction in the coming months. As seen on the chart, Bitcoin sees multiple deep corrections (>20%) during bull-cycles. Sometimes they are less excessive, but >20% is generally the bottom. Currently, BTC is trading around 11% from the ATH. It's not great, but looking at previous bull-cycles it can certainly get much worse. For now, there's not a real reason for the bulls to worry. Yes, BTC is not really doing great at the moment, but did we really expect a move from 40k > 100k without any corrections? Patience will reward you.
BLong
by FieryTrading
8
🔥 Bitcoin On-chain: You're Still EARLY This Cycle 🚨In this analysis I want to dive deeper into on-chain analytics, namely the amount of the BTC supply that has not moved in over 1-year (read: investors that hold BTC for >1 year). This metric is important because it gauges the amount of hodlers in the market. Historically, the amount of hodlers always goes up during bear-markets and goes down during bull-markets. Take a look at the previous three cycles. Hodlers only really started selling after BTC has made a new all-time high. Seeing that the white line has only just started going down, we can safely assume that we're still early into the real bull-market and that we likely have another 6-12 months of bull period (historically) ahead of us. Don't worry if you missed the boat on your favorite altcoin, you're still early.
BLong
by FieryTrading
18
Is something wrong? The halving come early?We are looking at a chart of bitcoins entire history against the stock to flow. The stock to flow is the orange line that price action tends to follow. The green line on the lower part of the chart with the what looks like speed bumps in is the deviation of the stock to flow. Well, the deviation in the past has made moves higher almost precisely the halving. Yet here we are over a year away from the halving and it's signaling something. What is it saying? or could it possible be broken? or is there another underlying issue? Let's take a look. First off the stock to flow is sitting right at 52.6k and right now and the price of bitcoin is at roughly 16k. This is the biggest deviation from the stock to flow it has ever had in a bear market. The price now is so detached from the S2F that it could be literally telling us that bitcoin could be as cheap to by right now as it is right before a halving. This is all backed up by the RSI indicator on the bottom that is showing us bitcoin has never been this over sold on the monthly ever before. OK, BUT WHY? why is it so cheap right now? Good old fashioned fear could be the answer. Or is there something else wrong? Is it something nefarious? Only time will really tell the answer to that. From what I see , I think we are waaay over sold, so much that the S2F has deviated more than ever and the RSI says the same thing. So does this mean the bottom is in and we won' t go lower ? No, we actually can go lower, What it could mean is that this a very rare anomaly that might just might never happen again. It could be the norm in bitcoins future as it grows. Or it could be the buy of a lifetime and could explode higher in the weeks. One this for sure... it's a damn good time to buy. Legend S2F Model Value S2F Bands Deviation RSI let me know what you think in the comments below Thanks for looking WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed! The RSI is also the most oversold
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
10
Matic: Sell in May and go away 🐻⁉️📆 We can see that the month of May is a crucial month. The range contained in the 🟥 red rectangle has already been tested several times, and in May last year we had a sharp drop. Here we are again in the month of May, on top of that range. Will it fall again? I don't know. But if it drops again, I would bet on a drop to some Fibonacci region drawn on the chart, and after any reversal signals I would look for an entry. But before that, I believe that there will be a spike in the rise, and depending on the context, it will not even fall as expected. Just having a crystal ball to know. 🔎 Doing a complementary analysis using on-chain data, we can see that Uniswap's liquidity pools suffered a relevant decrease in the month of May: 🔎 And the total trade volume on Uniswap (in USD) also has this setback: 🔎 Another item that I found interesting to point out, looking at the on-chain data, is the "New address created with non-zero starting balance" in the blockchain, which broke down an important level: 🟢 Despite everything, I remain bullish. It's not because the last month of May was bad that we will necessarily now have a bad month too. The last three arrows in the red rectangle indicate that there was a test in this region, and the price did not break down, which could indicate that at least we will have a rebound if there is a stronger drop. Another thing to note is that the TVL (Total Value Locked) in blockchain seems to be showing signs of reversing:
MLong
by andre_007
2
Why BTC Remains Profitable: SOPR > 1, but Caution is AdvisedGiven the current stability of BTC prices, I wanted to shed some light on an important metric that indicates Bitcoin's profitability and discuss the significance of HODLing for the long term. As many of you know, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is a widely recognized on-chain indicator used to determine the profitability of Bitcoin transactions. When the SOPR is greater than 1, it suggests that the average investor is selling their BTC at a profit. This metric has proven to be a reliable tool for assessing market sentiment and predicting potential price movements. Recent data indicates that the SOPR for Bitcoin has consistently remained above 1, indicating that investors are making profits from their BTC holdings. This finding serves as a testament to the resilience and profitability of Bitcoin as a long-term investment. However, it is crucial to approach this information with a cautious mindset. While the SOPR > 1 is undoubtedly a positive sign, it is essential to consider the broader context of the market. The stability of the BTC price plays a pivotal role in ensuring the sustained profitability of Bitcoin investments. Therefore, I urge you to exercise prudence and carefully monitor the market conditions before making investment decisions. In light of this, I strongly encourage you to consider the long-term HODLing strategy for your BTC holdings as long as the price remains stable. The inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market often tempts traders to capitalize on short-term gains. However, we can reap substantial future rewards by embracing a patient and strategic approach. By maintaining a long-term perspective, we can navigate through market fluctuations and capitalize on the potential growth of Bitcoin. Remember, the true power of BTC lies in its ability to act as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial systems. In conclusion, while the SOPR > 1 indicates the profitability of Bitcoin transactions, it is crucial to exercise caution and consider the stability of BTC prices. Embracing a long-term HODLing strategy and diligent market analysis can help us make informed decisions and maximize our returns. Let us move forward with a sense of responsibility and awareness, ensuring that we make the most of the cryptocurrency market's opportunities. Together, we can navigate these uncertain times and emerge as successful traders and investors. As a fellow trader, I encourage you to adopt a long-term BTC HODLing strategy, provided the price remains stable. Let's stay vigilant, monitor market conditions, and make informed decisions to secure our financial future.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Supply ZoneHello traders As you know bitcoin started to turn bullish weeks ago, market greed has increased, and dominance is above 42%. On a day to day charts and the short term, Bitcoin hit a supply zone that is pretty strong in every timeframe. I see a rejection from that zone, and I think this rejection might create a bearish momentum for the short term; in other word, I will call it a correction for a bullish trend. I screenshotted a metric from Glassnode called realized Profit/loss Ratio, which shows that most of the network wallets are currently in profit. This is a risk for a price. Note that this is an Intraday analysis and is only valid for a couple of days or even hours. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ What is your opinion? Comment below. If you like the idea, please hit the boost button and follow me so you will get the updates. The information given is never financial advice. Always do your research too. Good luck.
Short
by Crypto_MD
Total amount of stable coins transferred on-chain vs Bitcoin📝Overview This indicator measures the total amount of coins transferred on-chain. Only successful transfers are counted. (Glassnode) 📈Analysis In this chart I put the main stable coins. Looking at the on-chain volume, the highest volume so far was reached on Nov 08, 2022, at the bottom marked in the red circle. Looking at it, the break of this support would be accompanied with a new record in volume. 🔎Binance Looking at Binance's stable coin in isolation, we have a temporary new all time high.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by andre_007
FTX and the end of an eraThe fall of FTX will go down in history as something similar to the crash of 2008. On Friday, 11/11/2022, a court-supervised reorganization was requested, the first step towards filing for bankruptcy. In this chart, we can see the balance of assets belonging to the hodlers of the FTT token, used on the FTX exchange. Surreptitiously, on September 26, someone with inside information already knew the boat was going to sink. And these managed to get a lifeboat before everyone else... This can be proven by comparing the same type of chart in other cryptocurrencies, where nothing absurdly out of the ordinary is noticed: BTC ETH AAVE ADA BUSD (Binance) COINEX Curve dYDX GUSD (Gemini) HT (Huobi) HUSD (Huobi) KCS (Kucooin) CRO Polygon Magic Internet Money OKB (OKX) QuickSwap (Polygon) USDC USDT ------------------------- Another indicator that demonstrates the problem to come is the Volume of transactions with a value of $100,000 or greater in USD . On FTX’s FTT token, there was a strangely unusual volume, ahead of other cryptocurrencies: FTT BTC ETH USDC (note that high volume happened just days later, in the desperation of multiple withdrawals and moves) ------------------------- The Amount of asset held by Whales is another indicator that I bring here to compare some exchanges, but not all of them are available. FTT (FTX) BUSD (Binance) (this information does not exist for BNB) Coinex CRO dYDX GUSD (Gemini) HT (Huobi) (⁉️) HUSD (Huobi) KCS (Kucoin) OKB (OKX) USDK (OKX) Uniswap Better times will come.
INTOTHEBLOCK:FTT_HODLERSBALANCE
by andre_007
On Chain Analysis using glassnodeThis is a quick description for using the Bitcoins Active Addresses from glass node. This chart is typically not something that makes much sense as it jumps back and forth with a-lot of volatility. However, apply a 14 Day SMA and you can get idea of the average of all the noise. I will explain briefly what the noise could mean. The number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted. When bitcoin is performing well through its bullish market the average of the BTC_ACTIVEADDRESSES will perform well along with bitcoin. Being that BTC is all the hype and the number of unique BTC users and active addresses is increasing alongside with bitcoins price. When bitcoin has reached or near reached its peak this number in the past has started to consolidate prior to BTC high. This may be a sign that "BTC Hype" may be reaching is heigh. Meanwhile a good spike up after a bear market could also potentially indicate the end of a bear market. Plot this ticker on your graph for yourself and add a SMA 14, is what I used or something similar in nature. See if this could help you in the future in understanding the current strength of CRYPTO market. Add a BTC chart to a split display to make it easier to compare. PS - The spike before the lunar Collapse around the 16 of May was a sign that people were actively changing money around. INDICATOR IDEA - Place a SMA and an Indicator on the SMA around Above 950K. That would be a nice indicator that more people are consistently coming into the network and it is becoming more active, and this also give us a New Higher-Low.
B
by Ryan1993
Onchain: Miners,banks and whales did not support the bull market A look at various Onchain metrics shows that miners, banks, and whales do not support the increase in the price of Bitcoin. Banks continued to reduce their Bitcoin reserves and the miners sold their bitcoins. Bitcoin Exchange Wall Ratio has also shown the increase in the entry of Bitcoin into the exchanges by whales. On the other hand, With the reduction of network difficulty and mining cost, we saw an increase in Bitcoin sales by miners. These show the market still does not have enough support for the price increase at the moment
by cryptoonchain
1
Where is the bottom of the market?In this post, I want to examine the market bottom area based on technical indicators and onchain metrics. Technical indicators: 1- RSI: In the last two cycles, the RSI value in the market bottoms has been between 43.6 and 44.8 in the monthly timeframe. RSI Value is 46.94 now. this is not far from the previous two values, but they were slightly less than this value. If we find the same value (46.9) in the previous two cycles on the chart, Bitcoin has dropped in price by 18% to 30% at the bottom of the market. If we consider 18% the market bottom will be about $ 24,300. 2- Pi cycle Bottom: The P-Cycle Oscillator is an efficient way to determine the top and bottom of the market. I used the bottom Pi cycle here. As you can see, this oscillator has performed well in previous cycles. Although the price is above the last trendline, it does not signal a market bottom. based on this oscillator, it seems that the downtrend continues. 3- 200 weeks moving average: The 200-week moving average has always been good support for Bitcoin in previous cycles and indicates the market bottom (If we do not consider candlewick). Although Bitcoin is close to this moving average, it has not yet crossed it. The value of this moving average is currently $ 22,100. 4- 300 weeks moving average: Although the 200-week moving average has shown good support for the bitcoin price, in the last cycle, candlewick fell to the 300-week moving average. This moving average value is currently around $ 16,600 The bottom of the market based on onchain Metrics: 1- Realized Price: One of the most important metrics for determining the bottom price of bitcoin is the realized price. In the previous bottoms, Bitcoin has fallen below this price. Bitcoin has dropped in the historical chart to the 730-day moving average of this metric. the realized price is 23760$ now and its 730d MA is 16300$. 2-CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. When coins pass from an old investor to a new investor, the transaction carries a USD value and also destroys an amount of HODL time by the previous holder. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as a ratio to the age of the market and divided by 6 million as a calibration factor. CVDD value is 15240$ now
by cryptoonchain
5