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Bitcoin Hidden Bullish Divergence Post Halving: Hold or BuyThe Bitcoin halvening puts the price action of bitcoin on a four year cycle that so far has resulted in a higher high each cycle. Until that changes the best money to be made is by incorporation that periodicity into your trading plan and figuring out when to buy, sell, and hold. In a bull market you are suppose to "buy the dip, and sell the rip." But not all dips are equal, a nd one thing that sets dips apart is divergence. Divergence Primer Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator We clearly see that we have some hidden bullish divergence. We can also clearly see that the RSI is "oversold" just 65 days after the bitcoin halvening. Historically this is a great time to buy. A look at the 2016-2017 bull market shows buying hidden bullish divergence and/or when the RSI got to over-sold on the daily chart was a outstandingly simple but profitable time to put in some buys. Those price levels were NEVER reached again on a retrace. Without exaggeration and irony after this pull back bitcoin may never return to this price again, give or take a day or so for a base to be put in. At this point, the only reason I can see to sell bitcoin is to buy alts that look good or because you have some bills that you must needs pay to remain solvent. But of course, I am not a financial advisor and even if I was, I am not your financial advisor. My best call in a long time has been my FTM trade. FTMBTC recently itself just had the RSI go to over-sold and it looks like price action is turning previous wedge resistance into support. I have currently moved up the risk curve and am in a small cap coin that is out of the top 100 in market cap. So far its been painful but in the long run I think the rotation will pay off.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
Bitcoin Hidden Bullish Divergence Points to ImpulseIntroduction This is a birds eye view post. We have had the usual stall and consolidation after the halvening and things have started to get lively. Due to all of the tokenomics of bitcoin, with the havlvening, its periodicity, and so on the move is going to be impulsive and sustained. The charts reflect that. Important Indicator considerations A MACD crossing the signal line above zero is generally bullish. A chart displaying some divergences helps predict a MACD cross will be sustained. This is basic pattern recognition. We have hidden bullish divergence, which suggest we will have trend continuation. The timing on the pattern is perfect. Divergence primer Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator My plan I have moved into low cap alts. Those provide me outsize gains similar to playing the top 10 with margin but without the risk of being liquidated. My peace of mind is so much more stable up the risk curve so long as I won’t get liquidated. I have some rotations planned out and based on my how my account is doing I now have to start paying attention to the 2% Depth data on coin market cap to make sure I don’t have liquidity issues. I am also taking quite a risk because I am not sure some of these projects won’t become the next Luna or FTX token that goes to zero. There is zero percent chance I hold those bags through a bear market. For example, here is KAVA. I expect a quick move out of this triangle to the 0.618 retracement level. 4.6x for a 120-150 day move Very similar to my fantom trade. I of course was NOT able to nail the high but it was close enough.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
2
BTC Monthly IchiMoki Cloud and On Balance Volume look AmazingIntroduction I have been waiting to do this idea for over a year and it seems that the moment is finally pregnant. When I saw the W pattern I did some testing and concluded that the 1.618 would be a likely target. If the situation became properly bearish the reversal could possible take out the low of the W. Many harmonic and cypher patterns, upon reaching some intermediate targets, reverse to take out the W patterns. In this case we see that the price has found support on the previous ATH, consolidated, and continued it’s march upward. As such, the new target is now the 2.618 of the previous W pattern, with a suspected considerable consolidation at the 2 level. In other words, a move to about $390,000 with a major stall at $125,000 In a perfect world we would find price stalling within a golden pocket of 5% of the fib target. I cannot be that precise right now. Indicators Ichimoku Cloud I am by no means a cloud master or a sky walker. But I can recognize patterns and to me the pattern here is clear. The bitcoin price has returned to the cloud after a significant draw down and is in the process of powering through. It has taken out the conversion line and is facing the base line as resistance. I would hope to the vast majority of readers that it seems clear that the base line is going to be flipped and we should expect a breakout to the upside. The blue boxes on our chart show the previous examples of price interacting with the base line, conversion line, and the cloud proper and it seems clear that this situation is familiar to the previous two occurrences. If we look at the W pattern we can see price stalled at the base line and there was strong profit taking above it. There is a minority chance that we are in a similar position. I would say it is less than 10%. One of the main reasons why I believe such is the volatility in from 2018 to June 2019 was too high relative to the 2014-2016 bear market. I find that low volatility bear markets occur when smart money is buying very discreetly, trying to absorb supply as gently as possible without moving up the price much. The wild swings of the W pattern do not support that notion. All that is fine. We have to adjust to the reality we see. This bear market has been lower volatility. So I suspect a more protracted move to the upside with a slower start. On Balance Volume with SMAs To speak to all of the meme speaking zoomers out there, the On Balance Volume with SMAs is low key one of my favorite indicators, fr fr ong no cap. (If you have a suspicion, then YES, I am at the age when I use slang to embarrass my kids and the next generation for my own amusement). I kinda missed the April Fools Pump of 2019 and most of the ride up looking for a pull back. In order to make sure I did not do that again I looked for something I had missed. I suspected I had a missing tool I had neglected to put into my tool box. And I looked back on various time frames I saw an amazing tool in the OBV with SMAs. I have been using it on higher time frames to help verify bias ever since. Almost all of TA is founded in two basic analysis: Price action and volume action. Falling or rising volume often confirm or negate price action patterns. Having bearish or bullish crosses on OBV SMAs help confirm the volume action that verifies the chart formations. And even more simply, the OBV SMAs help verify tipping points in buying and selling pressure. When the OBV SMAs are staked bullish (OBV over the 10SMA which is over the 20) then buying pressure has obviously been bullish and the bias is towards upside. If the OBV is below the 10 SMA and that is below the 20 SMA the bias is basically bearish. Once you get that down you can add some complexity and divergence to figure out when you are in absorption or distribution. Right now the OBV SMA situation is clearly bullish. The bias is long What this all means I am biased bullish as far as cryptocurrencies are concerned. My previous ideas detail why I am avoiding the Ethereum ecosystem in favor of other layer 1 currencies but I still suspect it will experience some middling upside. As for me, I am using my pull back strategy to try and get good prices as we go up and to force myself to not buy highs but to rather buy dips. I have my preferred alts right now and I have a few that I am waiting for to see how they handle their patterns. My linked ideas on fantom and link will show some pretty good calls. My largest bag is in fantom, and I wish it had more liquidity. But I would rather build a position in fantom over time and get outsized gains rather than dumping more money easily into a higher market cap coin. You do you. Free chart Price landed on the monthly 100 EMA perfectly. I have a strong suspicion that the next bear market will reach the 200 EMA. The chart below shows that we don’t even have a 200 monthly EMA yet. We only have about 170-ish periods. But in the next bear market I will be there, posting my buy the dip ideas and only getting a hand full of views because everyone is to bearish to believe the bottom is in.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
12
The NASDAQ and Yield Curve Inversion Battle PlanTL:DR The NDX & Yeild Curve Inversion Pattern suggests that price is bouncing very technically and logically at a long term support trend line. The bubble phase will be complete when price action gets a lot of "white space" between itself and the trendline and the yield curve inverts again in about 2 years. Introduction There is definitely a lot of uncertainty in the market and lots of divergent and conflicting opinions. Lots of conflicting news as to why price could go up, down, or sideways. Ideally TA is suppose to help people see through the noise to make rational decisions in the moment you find yourselves in. A lot of this is pattern recognition and probabilities and sometimes, trite sayings to reenforce deeper lessons. Some of the first trite trading sayings sayings you could have been exposed to: The trend is your friend until the end So long as the music is playing keep dancing bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered Lets keep those in mind going forward analysis There are several stages to a bubble and adept traders and investors will be able to negotiate the market with some understanding of what phase the bubble is in. Generally, there is a fair value stage of the bubble and I have that in the orange channels on the NDX and orange zones in the yield curve portion of the chart. Both orange zones go on for about two years and show lots of uncertainty or even chaos in the financial markets. The late 1988 to mid 1990 saw the end of the Saving and Long Crisis which was a pretty serious event. Looking back the dollar amounts seem relatively small compared to the money that is sloshing around now. The 2005 to 2008 yeild curve inversons kicked off the 2008 financial crisis and it took years for the NDX to return to the swing high of the yield curve inversion. Eventually the uptrend increases its angle of assent and the blue trend line appears. This becomes our long term support and so long as price action stays pretty close to the trend line the bubble can inflate for years. During this time yield curve inversions drive price action back down to the blue trendline. So long as the trendline holds you have a very logical reason to buy. The music is still playing and the trend is your friend until the end. There are many pull back systems you could use to buy the dip technically. Below is the NDX on the weekly with the 200 EMA. Every time it has hit the 200 EMA since 2010 it has been an outstanding buy. It is super easy to set stops down there as well. Whether you like that or not it is a very technical buy and very justified. You can buy dip bearing in mind that "Bulls make money.... pigs get slaughtered" The blow off phase of the bubble occurs when there starts to get a lot of white space between the blue trendline and price action. Once that happens you know that price is going to go below that level because that is how bubbles work. Quite frankly, when I see the white space and the yeild curve inverts again it is basically time to close longs within the next 30=60 days. There may be some more upside but it will be at the end of a bubble, no point in being to greedy and holding to long. Generalizations I see the United States stock market going crazy for the next two years to the upside and then crazy to the downside for another two years. I don't see precious metals having their run until after a lot of the damage from the NDX bubble pop happens. Gold futures bottomed about halfway through the NDX bear market and i think it would be fair to see that happening again. I see crypto going crazy to the upside along with NDX and then having an even crazier downside and that would be the first true bear market for crypto that occurs with a NDX bear market. There is going to be a lot of pain and misery and lots of projects getting the Luna treatment. My linked idea on the XABCD Butterly will show that disaster scenario. My trades I have taken a shining to a couple of cryptos, some new and some old. I still like DASH, DAOUSDT looks good, Kadena looks great. I hope to beat as much money out of these coins while the music is still playing and then hopefully get out before the financial market seizes up again. I think that if things go well for 2 years and my targets get reached before then should be able realize the gains before any catastrophe makes my funds unavailable. Last thing I want is my trades and equity be used to "bail in" the exchanges so they don't have to pay me out.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by This_Guhy
50
Monero Cup and Handle Just flipped the Monthly SARIntroduction I have been waiting for an OG coin alt season for over a year now. A lot of the top 10 or top 20 coins from 2015, 2017 and 2017 massively over performed compared to bitcoin and Ethereum and have had to go through an even longer cooling off period than those cryptos did. Monero has dropped to the 20s in coinmarketcap.com’s rankings and some of the coins I favor as trades and ideologically are a lot lower. I got a bit excited around February/march of 2022 but did not get the follow through that I was hoping for. Now that I have see a flip of the monthly parabolic SAR I am a lot more optimistic that a high probability move to the upside is beginning in Monero and my choice alts. Since they are lower down in market cap one cannot build a position as easily as one could in a top 10 or 20 coin. There is a lot of wicks and slippage when entering a position too enthusiastically or carelessly. I cannot just market into a margin position without creating a wick that immediately puts me under water and messes up my margin level. But if I am right the gains will be worth it. Main Analysis The Parabolic SAR is quite a nice indicator on the higher time frames. It was literally named Stop And Reverse and was designed to find places where price can take a U turn. If you are expecting a multi-month or multi-year to happen based on whatever (analysis, fundamenals, etc) a flip of the SAR helps clear “technical resistance” much in the same way clearing the 200SMA in a bear market is a sign that a bull market is brewing. Another technical resistance we have cleared is the resistance line of the flag. We popped through quite nicely and have been going sideways for about 10 days after the initial move began. While there is a chance that we can retest the flag’s previous resistance as support I think it is more likely that price pumps. A lot of biases of a lot of traders should have flipped to bullish with the SAR. The bull season is still in the early stages and there is still a lot of doubt but generally the bulls will be winning. Other Charts The monthly chart for both other times the Parabolic SAR flipped bullish look amazing when viewed with Heiken Ashi candles. Massive 50-70 percent pull backs don’t seem to matter anymore when viewed on the HA chart. The idea that I can get into this trade the first week it is happening is pretty exciting. The Parabolic SAR is usually used with some momentum indicator and the inventor of the Parabolic SAR liked to use another of his creations, the ADX. Here is a simplified version. Looks promising. The chart below shows the long term SMA situation. Price is winding up for its next move between the 200 and 100 SMAs. I think it will be to the upside in a big way. My channels chart set up has the gaussian and Keltner channel (1 and 2 ATR multipliers). Price is struggling at the guassian midline and I think we will see an upside resolution. The chart also shows that the keltner midline (the 20 EMA is a good place to buy pull backs on this uptrend if it is similar to the 2016 uptrend. Lots of people like to talk about price action but don’t spend enough time talking about volume action. One of the best indicators for volume is the On Balance Volume and with some moving averages it is really easy to tell when the long term buying and selling pressure has flipped. I am very optimistic that XMR’s OBV SMAs will flip bullish. Since volume can vary by exchange here is Binance as well Where is the money going to come from? Money has to come from somewhere to pump XMR and the other OG coins I favor. I think it is going to be rotated out from the ETH ecosystem. Many times a W pattern will have price pump to a double top or even all time highs and then price returns to the rise between the valleys. The chart below shows that both XMR and LTC had price return to the rise between the valley. Also, my linked ideas will have my bearish post on NDX. I think the equity markets will be howling here shortly as price retraces deeper. My plan I am looking to add to my positions with a simple pull back strategy. When both the Log MACD and Stoch are below zero know we have just had a pull back and that pull back will have generated some support and resistance lines. I will look to buy when price is again above that resistance line and catch some momentum. This will help me not buy and have the price continue to fall which is always nice. I will not be buying the bottoms though. I do not like the idea of buying things and having it be the same price six months to a year later. Much nicer to buy the pull back and watch price climb out of the hole and not return. I have this planned for a lot of the OG coins, many of which are now in obscurity. Zcash and Dash are in the 70s and 90s. Very low market cap. XPR, BCH and others are still rather big but not as exciting but they are going to be bought on pull backs just the same. XMR also topped over 200 days before total 2 did on this last uptrend. I have to be prepared to rotate out of XMR and into other coins if XMR reaches its major targets.
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by This_Guhy
25
Kadena breaking out for a +300% rallyKDA is up around 9% as of this writing and I think this move as a lot more to go. There is some resistance to cleared on the way up, as always, but ultimately I see a big multi-month move to $4.7. A couple of months ago price action finally broke out of the green "falling wedge" and did a whole lot of sideways as strong hand accumulated. I use quotes for falling wedge because it has a bit to much white space as drawn. The Kadena project looks really promising and interesting so I am not surprised that buyers stepped up. The indicator analysis is pretty simple. There is a lot of hidden bullish divergence on the weekly chart and I see that as being enough to get us to the 0.5 fib retracement level. We may even get over-performance to around the 0.786 but I shan't be greedy. I will be closing the margin around the 0.5 (4.7) target, Kadena versus Bitcoin One reason I foresee a longer term consolidation patter on KDAUSDT is the KDABTC chart. The log MACD is still way below zero on the weekly and there is a lot of resistance at the bold black line as well as the Keltner channels. KDABTC has about 33% to go until it faces the 2 standard deviation Keltner and I expect to see multi-month structure develop to get the price action strong enough to start to curve the channel upward. No matter what KDAUSDT is doing once KDABTC gets to the top of the 2 std dev Keltner I will have to access if I want to close out my margin to make it available for a btc margin trade. My entry and trade I am rather pleased with this entry. I got in two days ago at 1.003 There is a chance that this structure could turn into an ascending triangle and there may be a stall at $1.414 If that is the case then price could return to my entry. If that is the case I will take what profit I can get manually and wait for an entry on the third low of the ascending triangle. This would push out my time table for the move by several months. I don't want get to repetitive, but things are going to start to get crazy. Total2 is in a rising wedge and a move to the top of the wedge sees the market cap of altcoins hitting all time highs and going over 350%. There is even a chance it pops out of the wedge. I got into this trade with just my left over equity in my margin account. I hope to close 75% of it at target and the balance is going to go into holdings. Twenty five percent is going to my living and the other 50% is going to be used to continue margin trading.
Long
by This_Guhy
4
Battle Planning on Solana by looking at EthereumI have color coded where I see the similarities in Solana's current price action and Ethereum's historic price action from the previous bull run. I think the patterns and seminaries are pretty clear and while I see a lot of upside potential for Solana in the long run and I see lots of coins staged to begin their uptrends now I see one more leg down for solana. I am going to wait for Solana to come into my buy box and then really drill down on the time frames so I can put on a decent amount of margin on my trade. One price enters the green area there is a chance to grap a x4 move or higher move as price returns to the base of the bull trap. Price may even go into the bull trap quite a bit but for me I don't want to be greedy. I will be taking profits quite quickly on Solana at about $75. A lot of this is predicated on the black triangle on Solana breaking down as the Ethereum triangle broke down. If the black Solana behaves differently than the Ethereum triangle and breaks up instead of down my trade is negated (for now). The Solana triangle could form a rising wedge and then make it to target but I will be patient. If Solana goes off-scripts I may miss some gains but I really am looking for some chart clarity and due to the similarities I see I won't be taking any longs on Solana until I see how it behaves at the base of the previous bull trap. But fow now: patience. It is a way a way but I see a lot of potential of Solana to wreck a lot of people over the next 5 years, or make them quite wealthy. I tagged the chart neutral for now as I am still waiting.
by This_Guhy
2
Kadena is breaking out (Compare Sol)I have been in a position of KDA for a while now but the break out of this triangle consolidation has just begun. IF price reaches the red ray, I get liquidated on this trade. I see lots of upside for Kadena and my ultimate target is around $600 as shown by the draw below. In my analysis KDA is more bullish overall than SOL and if SOL can go from less than $2 to over $250 in one market cycle KDA can get to $500, Here is the KDA/SOL chart. It is easy to see that this has just been a time for KDA to pull back a bit against SOL and other cryptos before it goes to the upside in big ways. Here is a zoom out of what happened the last time price beat the 12h ema ribbon. That gains baby.
Long
by This_Guhy
4
Kadena to make bitcoin look like a stable coinKDABTC has a clear rising wedge structure and since it is at support the next move is primed to be to the upside. There is a lot of hidden bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD (and a host of other indicators) and the Stoch is showing momentum is breaking above the 20 level, which shows price is technically coming out of a downtrend on the weekly timeframe Drilling down several time frames, there is a inverse head and shoulders on the 4 hour that developed over the last 10 days. There is a strong possibility that that structure marks a the swing low and the price action will now go below that structure again. Price is poking above the orange trend line and if we can hold that break on the weekly time frame with a whole candle body above the gains are practically in the bag with some patience. This orange trend line also intersects the wedge support lower down and price action could see a retest of both on a pull back. KDAUSDT is in several bullish structures. First is a 50-day ascending triangle it is breaking out off right now And that ascending triangle is at support on a rising wedge that KDAUST had already broken out the top off before returning to support. I see KDAUSDT setting new all-time highs continually over the next several years.
Long
by This_Guhy
9
Comparing indicators from different bitcoin bear marketsTLDR: Indicator similarities suggest a strong buy for accumulators. Introduction Price actions causes indicator action and so you can see patterns on indicators stemming from price action. As price action tightens you can see different indicators tighten as well. Most tightening actions on charts is formed by triangles or wedges and as this idea will show, there has been tightening on the MACD Histogram and RSI. Discussion The MACD Histogram (on standard settings) tracks the distance between the 12 and 26 EMAs. A high positive value means the 12 is high above the 26, a 0 means the EMAs have crossed and a high negative value means the 12 is far below the 26. For the MACD histogram to tighten as it did in the 2018 to 2020 chart and the current chart that means the EMAS have been less volatile because price has been less volatile on the indicator. Of course the price action has been consistently bearish. There is no way for the gaussian channel to turn from green to red on such a high time frame without that downward price action. But just as narrowing price action suggest energy is getting coiled up prior to a release likewise a tightening MACD histogram suggests a large move is brewing The RSI provides us with some more information. In the last bear market the tightening on the RSI was mostly sideways which is why it was drawn as a triangle. We don't currently see the RSI going sideways, it is in a falling wedge. This falling wedge suggests that the RSI will ultimately break to the upside with price action. The fact that RSI hit oversold and is under a red gaussian channel is very promising for an upside move as well. It is also comforting for the bulls that the RSI is lower with price at about 19,800 than it was when the wedge began to form at support point 1 in august 2020 than it it is now. The RSI is even lower than during thr Covid dump. This higher low on price but lower low on an indicator is a clear example of hidden bullish divergence. Hidden divergences are my favorite kind of divergences and it is particularly comforting to see them with the RSI at oversold, below a red gaussian channel with a very tight MACD Histogram. There is a lot more stuff going on with the price action but I don't want to make this a post where I throw "Everything but the kitchen sink" at this idea but I will mention some things. Mr. Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands has pointed out that the price is resting on the monthly BB for the first time in bitcoins history. Followers of the NVT are looking at how undervalued bitcoin is compared to the value transactions on the network. Price is below the weekly Keltner channel which has been a historically great place to buy. Lots of "OG" coins like Dash and BCH are nailing in a higher low on multi-year W patterns. ETHBTC has found support on the 200 EMA and is now fighting resistance at 100 EMA and I think that it will beat that resistance. It appears that this has been a very technical sell off until we retested the all time high on Bitcoin and Eth and now this horizontal retest has been complete are premier cryptos are primed to have their new highs and then a real and proper multi year beak market. As an example of horizontal retests see silver and golds retest below, which happened in the 2008 financial crisis. Should price begin to move up taking profit before the 1.618 level seems to be weak handed based on what we can see happened with silver and gold. My Trades I have taken longs in ethe, dash, bch and trx. I like the older coins because I think targeting on them is easier than the newer coins and the can offer me enough gains that I will be happy with the outcome of the trades. But I think they will still be correlated with BTC so I have to watch BTC. I also see this move happening over the next 2-3 years due to how long the W patterns will need to play out on Dash, BCH and other "OG" coins. I mentioned Dash on a differnt forum and was pleased to hear so many people considered the project dead, just like many people are saying bitcoin is dead. That is a sign to me that these coins will be in the stealth phase for a while. My linked ideas go deeper into my rational and my trades.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
11
Quickpost: Massive gain potential on DAOUSDT W patternI am looking to find a entry on DAOUSDT to put on a fair amount of margin for this potential W pattern. Targeting is a simple fib draw from the swing high to the swing low price is currently putting in. The chart below shows the bullish divergence on the MACD histogram, and the RSI is tightening in a falling wedge with lots of potential for an upside move. A lot of this is predicated on my overall operation assumption that BTC has gone into accumulation. Please see the linked ideas below for more details. There are a lot of bullish formations forming on a lot of trading pairs so it makes the decision to be bullish based on all of the background information. I still need basic trade management but way less searching for indicators and divergences and the like.
Long
by This_Guhy
Bitcoin and the 200w moving averageThere are a lot of trash analysts out there that claim that bitcoin has never closed a whole weekly candle body below the 200-week moving average and they are using that lie combined with the fact that bitcoin is now under the 200-week moving average to create fear, uncertainty and doubt. Other trash analysists hear the lie and repeat it without verifying for themselves the truthfulness of the statement. The chart on the left clearly shows we had multiple candle bodies below the 200-week moving average late 2015 and that lead it is common knowledge that price ran up to over $19,000. Bitcoin is in the zone for accumulation for many different kinds of traders. My linked ideas will go over different signals for investors to accumulate. If you want more certainty one simple moving average strategy would be to buy bitcoin when the price gets above the 200-week moving average again. I am not going to go into all of the moving average plays, but there is also looking for a daily golden cross of the 50 and 200 week, but that won't be for a while. The chart below shows that from the high in 2013 to the low of 2015 price reached the 2.414 fib target. As I see it we are still looking to reach a target above the 2 level on the fib draw from the high in 2017 to the low in 2018. It makes sense to book some profits at each 2 level and once price slips back under the 20 week and price treats it as resistance just admit that the run is over. I have a few preferred alts I am buying. ETHE is still at a discount, and I expect to sell it when the premium is over 5 or 6x.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
2
Even more Bottom Calling on BitcoinTLDR: This and my linked post make a very strong case for limited downside, accumulation and reversal for the next several years. Don't get stupid with margin trading. Analysis I use the gaussian channel to find when an asset is undervalued for chosen time frame. Bitcoin has a history of going sideways under the gaussian channel and so far has never returned to levels below the Gaussian channel when it reenters and the channel has gone from green to red. Very simply price under a red gaussian channel means accumulate. Eventually that will not be a workable strategy but so far the logic is solid. The On Balance Volume with EMAs is a great tool to look at what is happening with volume over time. The indicator lets you set three different lookback periods and you can customize it to look for crosses to show when buy or sell pressure has shifted. I have made some mistakes with the OBV because it is hard to do some analysis on assets that are continually printing new "coins" like bitcoin does so you can't exactly use to look for divergences over large time frames. What you can do, however, is notice when the On Balance Volume is under a long term ema, like the 100. That symbolizes a whole lot of selling pressure and it suggests that the selling is about done. If you want to be a investor I suggest you do some tinkering with the On Balance Volume with EMAs because you can notice a a lot of things. On the chart below I have added the 150 EMA in red to the 100 EAM in green. In 2015 to 2016 the OBV was pinched between those two EMAS while the price action bottomed and made beautiful W pattern. That happened again at the low in late 2019 and early 2019. For the C19 dump the OBV lanced through and then recovered. Right now, the OBV is below the 150 EMA. That has never happened before. This is literally one of the best buying opportunities you could ever find for bitcoin using a simple OBV strategy of buying under a long-term EMA. It is as simple as value investors looking to accumulate under the 200 week on a asset they believe has the ability to recover, or people buying the base of the monthly Bolling band or kelter channel, or buying when the RSI has fallen below 20. And the RSI has fallen below 30, and it has done so bullishly! The RSI is lower now than it was during the dip in late 2018 but the price is currently much higher. A higher low on price but lower low on the indicator is hidden bullish divergence and it can mark great long term buying opportunities. Hidden divergences suggest price action will continue in the direction it was going when the divergence formed so in this case we would look for bullish continuation, or a higher high. Divergence Primer Classic Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicato For target setting I continue to think there will be major consolidation at the 2 level and a top at the 2.618 level from the draw on the chart below. You see that rising wedge formation? Guess what, targeting suggest we will go to the wedge apex then price will spill to the beginning of the wedge and bitcoin loses almost all of its value. What a hell of a ride. My linked idea will show I have been watching for this wedge to act as support for a while. There is a chance that price falls out of the wedge now, which would be painful, but we can limit that loss with stop losses. I don't see that happening right now on account of the bullishness I articulated in this post. There is a rising wedge on Ethereum as well. Linked ideas The linked ideas show a lot of bullishness in the market, whether it be ideas looking at similar indicators, or massive bullish patterns on other cryptos. and it really helps steady my hands going forward. Hopefully they will be of some use to you as well.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
2
Quickpost: Comparing Inverse head & shoulders on TRXBTC & ETHBCPretty simple idea. TRXBTC on the left is in a developing inverse head and shoulders and price action recently tested the 200 week as support and is now primed to begin to move to target. My trade is going to be on TRXUSD. The chart has the key details and it is pretty simple and fundamental. My main thing still is leaving my damn trades alone enough. I have entered a small position on TRXUSD but once I see it get above its current resistance I will begin adding to it pretty aggressively in the early stages of the move. Once we get above that resistance I will have a 23 risk reward ratio and I will be putting on some margin.
Long
by This_Guhy
1