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Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines. The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into. Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
WTI looks set to bounce above $80Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone. A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near. A bounce to $84 could be on the cards as part of a technical retracement against its prior move lower. Bulls could enter live around current levels with a stop beneath $80, or seek dips towards it in anticipation of an eventual move higher to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
WTI remains on the 'buy the dip' statusMarket positioning data from the COT report shows that asset managers and large speculators are piling into longs, yet shorts remain subdued. The price on the 4-hour chart also shows an established uptrend within a bullish channel. Prices have not yet completed a 3-wave retracement against the trend, hence the bias for a slightly deeper pullback before its trend resume. Also note that RSI (14) has not yet dipped into the oversold zone (which is now 40 given the strong uptrend). Any pullbacks towards the internal trendline or $84 will pique our bullish interest for new longs, in anticipation of its next leg higher on route towards $90.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Breakout for crude oil in focusCrude oil has been grinding higher since the December low, but after a 4-week period of choppy trade momentum has turned higher. Whilst $80 has been a tough level to crack in recent week, we suspect a breakout is now on the cards - 200-day MA has provided dynamic support - Falling wedge into 200-day MA - Bullish range expansion out of the falling wedge - RSI (14) curling higher from the neutral zone (50) Prices are teasing the $80 level during a quiet Asian session. Bulls could either look to enter the breakout above $80 alongside rising volume, or seek dips down to the $79 handle / 2023 open price in anticipation of a breakout. The bias remains bullish above the $200-day MA with $84 now in focus
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
WTI crude looks set to bounceMomentum has clearly been in favour of bears over the past week for WTI traders, but given it has fallen over 10% from the January high it could be argued the move is oversold (at least over the near term). A doji formed on Monday to show bears are losing their grip, and the fact it is forming a base above the 2023 open price and $72 handle adds to the case for a technical bounce. Moreover, bears entered around the January highs but volumes declined as prices fell to suggest the move is running out of steam, and RSI (2) was oversold on Friday. The bias is for a bounce towards the weekly and monthly pivot points around 74.50 - 74.80 whilst prices remain above Monday's low.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
1
Crude oil could rally from $72Price action has been very choppy on the daily crude oil chart, but if we place a line chart over the top is shows prices are trying to break out of a small triangle / pennant. Whilst these are usually expected to be continuation pattern, they can also make decent reversal pattern. And this case, we've see prices hold above $70 on a closing basis, and the lower candle wicks made a series of higher lows. Momentum is now turning higher. Bulls could seek dips down to $72 (yesterday's low) or a break of its high, with an upside target around $78, near the 200-day MA and 100-day EMA.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
US Oil ~ Macro Headwinds > Market Intervention (1H)TVC:USOIL chart mapping/analysis. Crude Oil reversing all gains manufactured by OPEC+ production cuts & Middle-East conflict premiums, while threatening to further capitulate due to growing macro headwinds leading into 2024.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish resurgence = rally above horizontal resistance line (yellow dashed) into 23.6% Fib & upper range of descending parallel channel (white) / re-test ascending trend-lines (green dotted) confluence zone. Bearish continuation = break below previous low (~68.80) towards ~67 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / descending trend-line (light blue / lower range of descending parallel channel (white) confluence zone. Neutral scenario = further sideways chop until next OPEC+ catalyst / key macro economic development.
TVC:USOILShort
by BlueHatInvestor
Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA V2 (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes. What's on the chart: Converging parallel channels (light blue) aka diamond box pattern, framing price action into a pennant formation on higher timeframe. Descending parallel channel (white) emphasizing current downward trend since late September peak. Fibonnaci levels highlight key support/resistance zones. Short-medium term outlook: Sharp reversal (short-squeeze?) from over-selling after breaking out lower range of parallel channel (white). Bullish reversal = rally back above 50% Fib. Bearish continuation = further selling below previous low towards 78.6% Fib / lower range of parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone. Watch for commodity trading trend/sentiment in either direction - leading into upcoming OPEC+ decision re: 2024 supply cuts, TBC.
NYMEX:CL1!
by BlueHatInvestor
Crude Oil Futures ~ Golden Pocket Support (2H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! intraday mapping/analysis. Crude Oil Futures finding support on Golden Pocket + lower range of descending parallel channel (white dashed) confluence zone after flat bottom break, while hovering above lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) + 66% Fib confluence. Price action accumulating while digesting recent sell-off Bias leaning towards bullish reversal to re-test break aka "return to scene of crime", TBC Heavy confluence zone(s) underneath to keep price elevated (unless wrecked by major economic/geopolitical news catalyst) Breakout above accumulation to validate bullish reversal &/or tap parallel channel (green) + 66% Fib confluence & rip back up to trigger fake dump/liquidity grab Eyes on US Yields for correlation (linked via Related Ideas) Set alerts - wait for trade to setup - hyper-awareness for potential oil manipulation by either OPEC+ or US (SPR refill narrative)
NYMEX:CL1!
by BlueHatInvestor
Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes Crude Oil Futures capitulating from early October rally despite ongoing Middle East tensions & geopolitical uncertainty. Only macroeconomic narrative/headwind that would override war escalations is increasing probability of global recession-induced demand destruction, IMO. Notes: Flat bottom pattern development = bias towards bearish price action, TBC. Crude Oil = highly manipulated trade with ongoing short-risk from Saudi Arabia &/or Russian market intervention - trade at your own risk to capital.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BlueHatInvestor
Crude Oil ~ 4H Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). Notes: - Further write-up on Daily Swing V2 Chart - Faded out longer TF parallel lines (light blue) TradingView has a sh*tty chart bug where any trend-lines drawn on longer TF become misaligned when you switch to shorter TFs. Temporary workaround = set "Opacity" on affected lines to "0%" before publishing & restore afterwards so you don't have to manually erase/re-draw...just remember where you drew them to begin with lol.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by BlueHatInvestor
Crude Oil ~ Daily Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE has done an amazing job respecting its upward parallel channel since June. Could see period of consolidation (foreshadowed by prev price action) into lower trend-line before deciding whether to push higher towards Golden Fib (break upper trend-line), or capitulate to global recession fears & collapse towards 200DMA/23.6% Fib, TBC. Price action would be biased towards upside given OPEC+ bullish manipulation, however OPEC+ would also be hyper-vigilante on excessive Crude Oil prices which could threaten demand destruction - hence why they opted to review production cuts on a monthly basis to maintain price/economic stability.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by BlueHatInvestor
WTI prints key reversal day ahead of FOMCWhilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term. WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached overbought. With the potential for the Fed to be more hawkish than expected, it could provide the catalyst for a pullback on WTI. A break below $90 confirms the near-term reversal is underway, with $87 making an initial target around the volume node from its preceding leg higher. $85 could also provide support around the August highs, which might tempt dip buyers more focussed on the fundamentals currently supporting higher oil prices.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
1
WTI 's rally could just be getting startedThe more we look at market positioning on WTI, the more we suspect that oil may be dominating headlines as we head into 2024. In recent weeks we can see that large speculators and asset managers have been increasing long exposure and reducing shorts, which is the ideal scenario for a bullish trend. Yet net-long exposure for both sets of traders remains low by historical standards, and therefore shows no immediate threat of the move higher being extended. If anything, it could look underbought considering OPEC's desire to support prices. And when you consider oil is rising despite the stronger US dollar, you get to appreciate how strong the rally could get if the dollar's rally were to falter. Either way, with a rising US dollar and oil prices, 2024 could get messy and perhaps risk assets will get their reckoning once more.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Crude Oil ~ Snapshot TA / Bullish ReversalWell well, H&S Short Position was there ready to be taken - but unfortunately Price Manipulators were also ready to defend.. First warning sign was wick reversal beyond 38.2% Fib. Second warning sign was another reversal just underneath previous wick for the Stop Hunt. Price action has since rallied above neckline, consolidating just under 23.6% Fib. In hindsight, makes sense why Market Makers would intervene an imminent sell-off when globally significant news haven't hit wires yet (Powell/Jackson Hole). All you can do is highlight key levels, set alerts & wait for Trade Setup to come to you.. Ps, retained H&S Short Idea on chart as reminder & part hopefulness of potentially playing out lol...we'll find out soon. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE TVC:USOIL TVC:UKOIL NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:CL2!
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by BlueHatInvestor