Opening (IRA): IBIT July 25th 48 Short Put... for a .48 credit.
Comments: The highest 30-day IV on my ETF board (aside from USO and UNG). Laddering out, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Optionsstrategies
Opening (IRA): IBIT September 19th 50 Short Put... for a .52 credit.
Comments: Laddering out/adding at strikes better than what I currently have on, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Will generally look to roll up at 50% max at > 45 DTE (Days 'Til Expiration).
Opening (IRA): TLT September 19th 82 Short Put... for a .90 credit.
Comments: Adding to my position at strikes slightly better than what I currently have on ... .
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ASML:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 800usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-7-25,
for a premium of approximately $32.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
MP Materials Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MP before the previuos earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MP Materials prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.97.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Opening (IRA): TLT Sept 19th 83 Short Put... for an .88 credit.
Comments: Camping out with a strike slightly below the 52-week low, where the options contract is paying a smidge more than 1% of the strike price in credit.
I don't really need more TLT, but wouldn't mind being assigned more at a lower price than the stock element of my covered calls.
Opening (IRA): IBIT July 18th 51 Short Put... for a .59 credit.
Comments: One of the higher IV ETF's on my board at the moment. A starter position, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Will look to ladder out at intervals ... .
06/30 Weekly Gamma Exposure Outlook🧠 SPX Weekly Outlook — Gamma Breakout + Short Week Setup
The bulls finally broke through after weeks of painful grinding — and they did so with force.
📈 Thursday & Friday brought a textbook gamma squeeze as SPX sliced through the long-standing 6100 call wall , triggering sharp upside acceleration.
We are now firmly in positive Net GEX territory.
🔺 Entire GEX structure has shifted higher.
🎯 New squeeze zone at 6225 , with major call resistance near 6200 .
🔍 What Just Happened?
📊 The 6060–6120 zone acted as a tough resistance range for weeks — until last week’s breakout.
💥 Put skew collapsed , suggesting downside hedges are being unwound.
📉 VIX and IV keep dropping , confirming a shift toward lower-volatility environment .
🧲 Strong Net GEX across expiries created sustained upward dealer pressure → we’re in long gamma mode .
✅ Bullish Bias — But Stay Tactical
We're in a bullish gamma regime , so dips are likely to be bought.
Key pullback zone to watch: 6125–6060 .
🛠️ Strategy Ideas:
• Wait for a 6060–6125 retest before re-entering longs
• Use shorter-DTE bull put spreads or 0DTE gamma scalps above 6130+
• Scale out or trim risk near 6200–6225
⚠️ Risks to Watch
We’re overextended short-term.
🚨 Losing 6130–6125 could spark a quick flush to 6050 .
Bearish signals to monitor:
• IV spike or renewed put buying
• Loss of 6100 = no-man’s land without confirmation
• Consider short-term debit put spreads if breakdown confirms
🗓️ Short Trading Week Note
🇺🇸 U.S. markets closed Friday, July 5 for Independence Day.
This compresses flows into 4 sessions. Expect:
📌 Early week dealer hedging
📌 Possible positioning unwind on Thursday
💡 Weekly Trade Idea — Structure in Place
💼 Setup:
• Put Butterfly below spot
• 3x Call Diagonal Spreads above spot (5pt wide)
• Slight net negative delta , 11 DTE
🎯 Why it works:
• Leverages IV backwardation
• Profits from time decay
• Favors a stable or modestly bullish week
• Takes advantage of horizontal skew (July 11 vs July 14)
💰 Profit Target: 10–20% return on ~$1,730 risk.
Take profits before time decay kills the center valley — don’t overstay. 🏃💨
📌 Final Thoughts:
The 6100 breakout was technically & gamma-structurally significant ,
but big moves often retest before continuing.
Let price breathe.
Stay aligned with gamma exposure profile. 🔄
Why Palantir (PLTR) Could Be the NVDA of Government AI If you haven`t bought PLTR before the massive rally:
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is proving it’s more than just another AI hype play — it’s becoming a core piece of the secure AI infrastructure for governments and large enterprises worldwide.
Key Bullish Arguments
1) Strong Government Moat
PLTR’s deep relationship with the U.S. government, NATO, and allies provides sticky, long-term revenue streams. In an age of geopolitical tension, this is exactly the type of mission-critical AI spending that stays funded.
2) Expanding Commercial Footprint
The commercial segment is no longer a side project. Palantir’s Foundry and Apollo platforms help enterprises deploy AI at scale — securely, in-house, and without sending sensitive data to open systems. Recent deals in healthcare, energy, and critical infrastructure show they’re broadening their customer base.
3) Profitability & Balance Sheet
Palantir is GAAP profitable for six consecutive quarters, with strong free cash flow and zero debt. For a growth stock in AI, this gives it rare staying power if macro conditions tighten.
4) Technical Strength
The stock broke out above ~$125–$130 support and is now testing key resistance in the $140–$148 range. Weekly momentum remains bullish, and institutional accumulation (A/D line) remains strong.
5) AI Tailwinds Remain
While the general AI trade has cooled for some names, PLTR’s unique moat in secure and domain-specific AI makes it more defensible than generic “AI SaaS” stocks. New contracts or AI platform updates could reignite momentum this summer.
Possible Summer Catalysts
New multi-year government deals — especially in defense and cybersecurity.
Major commercial partnerships — especially in healthcare or energy.
AI platform upgrades — more integrations with LLMs or domain-specific AI.
Inclusion in AI-focused ETFs — or further index rebalancing inflows.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Max Profit: 5.13
ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04%
Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
Opening (IRA): SMH August 15th 215 Short Put... for a 2.50 credit.
Comments: A starter position in the semiconductor ETF on a smidge of weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Will generally look to add at intervals if I can get it at a strike better than what I currently have on.
Jade Lizard on PLTR - My 53DTE Summer Theta PlayMany of you — and yes, I see you in my DMs 😄 — are trading PLTR, whether using LEAPS, wheeling, or covered calls.
I took a closer look. And guess what?
📈 After a strong move higher, PLTR was rejected right at the $143 call wall — pretty much all cumulative expiries cluster resistance there
Using the GEX Profile indicator, scanning all expirations:
After a brief dip, the market is repositioning bullish
Squeeze zone extends up to 150
The most distant GEX level is sitting at 160
On the downside, 130 is firm support, with some presence even at 120 — the market isn’t pricing in much risk below that
📉 From a technical standpoint:
We’re near all-time highs
125 (previous ATH) and 100 are key support levels
The OTM delta curve through August is wide, and the call side is paying well — with a current call pricing skew
🔬 IVx is at 57, trending lower + call pricing skew📉 IV Rank isn't particularly high, but the directional IVx matters more here
💡 Summer Theta Play: Jade Lizard on PLTR
Since I’ll be traveling this summer and don’t want to micromanage trades, I looked for something low-touch and high-confidence — and revisited an old favorite: the Jade Lizard.
If you're not familiar with the strategy, I recommend checking out Tastytrade's links and videos on Jade Lizards.
🔹 Why this setup?
Breakeven sits near $100, even with no management
On TastyTrade margin:~$1800 initial margin ~$830 max profit
53 DTE — plenty of time for theta to work
Earnings hit in August — I plan to close before then
Covers all bullish GEX resistance zones
Quickly turns profitable if IV doesn’t spike
Highly adjustable if needed
My conclusion: this strategy covers a much broader range than what the current GEX Profile shows across all expirations — so by my standards, I consider this to be a relatively lower-risk setup compared to most other symbols right now with similar theta strategies.
🔧 How would I adjust if needed?
If price moves up:
I’d roll the short put up to collect additional credit
Hold the call vertical as long as the curve supports it
If price drops:
Transition into a put ratio spread
Either extend or remove the call vertical depending on conditions
🛑 What’s the cut loss plan?
I have about 20% wiggle room on the upside, so I’m not too worried — but if price rips through 160 quickly, I’ll have to consider early closure.
If that happens, the decision depends on time:
If late in the cycle with low DTE:→ Take a small loss & roll out to next month for credit
If early with lots of DTE remaining:→ Consider converting to a butterfly, pushing out the call vertical for a small debit→ Offset this with credit from rolling the put upward
As always — stay sharp, manage your risk, and may the profit be with you.
See you next week!– Greg @ TanukiTrade
APPLE BULLISH 26 JUNE 2025Apple looks ready to breakout.It is really well squeezed now and ready to form a Green candle.
Breakout is an expectation so dont trade blindly.
I will upload video analysis Asap.
I am bullish and my price target is a minimum $220 from here.
NOTE: RISK MANAGEMENT IS A MUST
DLTR: Range + Flow SetupDLTR – Trading Within Range Amid Strategic Evolution & Flow Anomalies
Dollar Tree (DLTR) continues to show strength post–Q1 FY2025 earnings, breaking higher as it pushes through its multi-price format transition and nears the Family Dollar divestiture. The stock is outperforming key peers (DG, TJX, COST) and trading above both the 50- and 200-day MAs — a signal of growing institutional confidence.
On the fundamentals: Net sales (ex-Family Dollar) jumped 11.3% to $4.64B, comps grew 5.4%, and gross margin expanded to 35.6% despite transitional headwinds. Full-year EPS was guided up to $5.15–$5.65, reflecting management’s conviction in sustained growth. Analysts responded by revising EPS to $6.12 (+13.5% YoY), validating the turnaround thesis.
Valuation-wise, DLTR remains notably underpriced. It’s trading at 16.66x forward earnings — well below the retail average and far cheaper than peers like COST (51.1x), TJX (26.9x), and DG (19.0x). The gap is especially compelling given DLTR’s momentum and shift toward higher-margin discretionary sales via the “3.0” format.
Unusual Activity Insight:
What caught my attention was a cluster of unusual options activity suggesting a short-term strangle strategy centered around the July 18 expiration — likely positioning for the stock to stay range-bound while capturing premium from elevated IV post-earnings. The structure and OI shifts imply smart money is playing both ends of the current price band.
Trading Range and Setup:
DLTR has been respecting a range between $92 and $102, consolidating after its post-earnings move. That behavior, combined with the flow signals, sets the stage perfectly for a defined-risk premium play.
My Approach: Iron Condor (July 18 Expiration)
- Sell 100 Call / Buy 105 Call
- Sell 95 Put / Buy 90 Put
This iron condor aligns with the projected range, offering attractive premium while keeping defined exposure. With theta working in our favor and volatility elevated, it’s a setup that thrives in quiet bullish chop — exactly what we’ve seen since the Q1 breakout
MSTR Bulls Reload on BTC ConvictionMSTR – Institutional Flow + BTC Correlation + Bull Vertical Spread Setup
MicroStrategy (MSTR), operating as “Strategy,” just went full throttle—adding 10,100 BTC between June 9–15 at an average of $104,080 per coin, totaling over $1.05B. With this, they now hold 592,100 BTC (>$63B), solidifying their status as the largest Bitcoin-holding public company. That’s a bold move amid the ongoing Israel-Iran macro uncertainty, signaling confidence, not caution.
This latest BTC buy was funded via STRK and STRF ATM offerings and the $979.7M STRD preferred IPO. Since initiating their Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, MSTR has soared over 3,000%, and they’re projecting a 25% BTC yield for 2025 after already clocking in at 13.7% YTD.
🔎 Flow Watch
Institutional activity around current price levels has been sharp—confirming conviction behind the recent momentum. With BTC hovering at critical support, I’m eyeing a potential short-term bullish reversal. Given the tight correlation between BTC and MSTR, the setup looks primed.
🎯 My Strategy
I’m targeting a bull vertical spread—buying the 382.5 call and selling the 385 call. This defined-risk, limited-reward setup positions me to capture near-term upside if BTC begins a rebound and MSTR follows suit. The tight strike range and elevated IV make it ideal for a premium-efficient directional bet.
MKC McCormick & Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MKC McCormick & Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $1.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DG Trading Setup: Capitalizing on RangeDollar General has experienced a stabilization phase following its Q1 2025 results, with same-store sales increasing 2.4% and revenue growing 5.3% to $10.4 billion. The company has regained traction in the discount retail space, mitigating previous challenges related to shrink and operational inefficiencies.
Institutional Flow & Market Positioning
Recent institutional flow highlights large orders in DG’s 115 call and 110 put, signaling either:
- A range-bound setup, where smart money expects the stock to stay between $110-$115 in the near term.
- Potential volatility, with institutions hedging both directions ahead of an unexpected move.
Considering the ATR (18) and standard deviation (7.353), this aligns with a low-breakout probability, making range-based strategies the optimal play. The absence of earnings between now and July further supports sideways movement expectations.
Options Trade Setup: Iron Condor
To capitalize on premium decay and IV contraction, I’m structuring an iron condor:
- Sell 115 Call / Buy 120 Call
- Sell 110 Put / Buy 105 Put
This strategy ensures limited risk while collecting premium in a high-probability range trade.
MU Options Insight: Bulls Eyeing $123Fundamental Overview
Micron Technology's $200 billion expansion plan aligns with the broader push for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The company is investing $150 billion in fabrication plants across Idaho, New York, and Virginia, while $50 billion is allocated for high-bandwidth memory packaging and R&D. This move strengthens Micron’s position in AI-driven demand and supply chain resilience.
The CHIPS and Science Act funding of $6.4 billion and eligibility for the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit further bolster Micron’s financial outlook. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasized that this expansion will create tens of thousands of jobs and reinforce U.S. tech leadership.
Technical Analysis
Micron’s stock is currently near a 12-month high, up 37% year to date. The momentum remains strong, with institutional activity suggesting bullish sentiment.
- Options Flow Insight: A vertical bull spread was spotted in Times & Sales, with 118 strike contracts executed on the ask and 123 strike contracts executed on the bid simultaneously. This suggests a bullish stance, as traders anticipate further upside.
- Expiration Consideration: The June 20 expiration (4 days away) indicates a short-term bullish outlook, likely targeting a breakout above $123.
- Institutional Positioning: The 500 additional contracts at 118 reinforce the bullish bias. If MU moves beyond $123, traders holding the spread still profit, confirming strong conviction in upside potential.
META June 2025 Monthly Support & Resistance Lines Valid till EOMOverview:
The purple lines serve as support and resistance levels for META stock throughout the month of June. When the price approaches these lines from either the bottom or the top, I will consider taking long or short positions in META stock, depending on the direction of the price movement.
Trading Timeframes
I usually use 30-minute candlesticks to swing trade options by holding 2-3 days max. Some can also use 3hr or 4hrs to do 2 weeks max swing trades for massive up or down movements.
I post these 1st week of every month and they are valid till the end of the month.
TSLA June 2025 Monthly Support & Resistance Lines Valid till EOMOverview:
The purple lines serve as support and resistance levels for TSLA stock throughout the month of June. When the price approaches these lines from either the bottom or the top, I will consider taking long or short positions in TSLA stock, depending on the direction of the price movement.
Trading Timeframes
I usually use 30min candlesticks to swing trade options by holding 2-3 days max. Some can also use 3hr or 4hrs to do 2 weeks max swing trades for massive up or down movements.
I post these 1st week of every month and they are valid till the end of the month.
Extra:
I added Blue Lines which are weekly line for June 16th to 20th.
Why Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX Could Be the NVDA of BiotechRecursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX is rapidly emerging as a transformative force in drug discovery, leveraging cutting-edge artificial intelligence and automation to industrialize and accelerate the development of new medicines. Here’s why RXRX could be the next NVIDIA (NVDA) of biotechnology and why its stock could soar by year-end:
1. AI-Powered Drug Discovery Platform with Unmatched Scale
Recursion integrates AI, machine learning, automation, and advanced data science to decode biology and chemistry, dramatically reducing the time and cost of drug discovery.
The company’s proprietary BioHive-2 supercomputer, built with NVIDIA’s DGX H100 systems, is the most powerful AI computing system wholly owned by any biopharma company, enabling Recursion to process biological data at unprecedented speeds.
By reducing the number of compounds needed for clinical candidates from thousands to just 136–200 and shrinking development timelines to under a year, RXRX is fundamentally changing the economics of pharmaceutical R&D.
2. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Validation
RXRX has forged high-profile partnerships with pharmaceutical giants such as Bayer, Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and Sanofi, validating its platform and unlocking milestone payments that could exceed $20 billion over time.
The company’s collaboration with AI biotech Exscientia in a $700 million deal further cements its leadership in the AI-driven drug discovery space, creating a pipeline of 10 clinical and preclinical programs with hundreds of millions in potential milestones.
NVIDIA itself holds over 7.7 million shares of RXRX, making it one of NVIDIA’s largest biotech investments and a strong endorsement of Recursion’s technology and long-term vision.
3. Explosive Revenue Growth and Strong Cash Position
Analysts forecast Recursion’s revenue to grow at a 65% CAGR from $58.8 million in 2024 to $263 million by 2027, far outpacing the broader biotech sector.
The company ended 2024 with over $600 million in cash, providing a solid runway for continued investment in R&D, platform expansion, and clinical trials.
Wall Street analysts expect more than 50% upside in RXRX stock over the next 12–24 months, with multiple clinical milestones and partnership announcements as near-term catalysts.
4. Disruptive Vision: The “Virtual Cell” and Beyond
RXRX is building toward a “virtual cell,” where AI models can simulate biological processes with such accuracy that wet lab experiments shift from data generation to validating computational predictions.
This approach could dramatically improve drug development success rates, addressing the industry’s notorious 95% failure rate and positioning Recursion as the go-to platform for next-generation drug discovery.
5. Market Sentiment and Institutional Support
RXRX has caught the attention of growth investors and major funds, including Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, further boosting its profile and liquidity.
Recent stock surges and high trading volumes reflect growing investor confidence in Recursion’s disruptive potential and the broader AI-in-biotech trend.
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline.
If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone.
SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to:
-USA domestic conflict
-International military conflicts
-Technical chart bearish divergence
-USA federal reserve interest rate news
-Government and corporate news
Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580.
Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615.
The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
Opening (IRA): SMH July 18th 195 Short Put... for a 2.23 credit.
Comments: Adding at a strike better than what I currently have on at the 205 ... .
