29/4/25 Can Bears Get FT Bear Bar or Fail to Do So? FCPO
Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 28) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below.
In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears can create a strong bear entry bar closing near its low, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but lack strong follow-through selling, closing the candlestick with a long tail below or a bull body instead.
The market gapped down and formed a strong bear entry bar.
The bears want a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range (AFTER the pullback).
The bears must create a strong follow-through bear bar on Tuesday to increase the odds of a retest and breakout below the April 22 low.
If the market trades higher over the next several days, they want it to form a lower high (vs Apr 25), forming a double top bear flag.
The bulls want a larger second leg sideways to up after the current pullback.
They want the current move to form a higher low (vs Apr 22), a double bottom (Apr 22), and a higher low major trend reversal.
They want the current pullback to be weak, sideways and with poor follow-through selling.
The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low. It is currently underway.
Traders will see the strength of the move. If strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low.
If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by a larger second leg sideways to up after that.
So far, the market gapped up in the night market and is an inside bull bar.
For tomorrow (29/4/25), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar. If they do, it could lead to a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low.
Or will the market close as a bull bar instead? If this is the case, especially if it is a strong bull bar, it could lead to further profit-taking from the bears.
The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range.
That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
Andrew
