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Payrolls

Why is the 147k Beat in Payrolls Data Not as Strong as it Seems?Yesterday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in above expectations, but a closer look at the details reveals a less encouraging picture. Despite the headline beat, market reactions quickly faded. For instance, gold initially dropped from 3350 to 3311 in the first 15 minutes after the release but has since recovered more than 75% of that decline. So why is the June jobs report not as strong as it first appeared? According to the BLS report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 147k in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 106k. However, when breaking down the numbers, private payrolls rose by just 74k, well below expectations. Most of the gains came from government and healthcare hiring. Government jobs accounted for 73k new positions, and 63k of those came from the education sector alone. Some analysts suggest the high net hiring in education may be due more to a lack of firings, a consequence of a tight labor market in that sector. Meanwhile, the 59k increase in healthcare jobs is part of a long-term trend. Over the past two years, the U.S. has added an average of 70k healthcare jobs per month. This growth is largely driven by the needs of an aging population and reduced payrolls during and after the pandemic that have yet to fully recover. If you exclude government and healthcare hiring, U.S. payrolls increased by just 15k in June. The unemployment rate also came in better than expected, falling to 4.1% from 4.2%, while markets had anticipated a rise to 4.3%. However, this decline was driven by a drop in the labor force participation rate, which fell to 62.3% from 62.6% in just two months , a worrying sign that fewer people are actively participating in the labor market. In the first 15 minutes after the data came, gold fell to 3311 from 3350. In the following 18 hours, gold recaptures 85% of the loss. Gold is still over the broken bearish trendline in 1-H timeframe. With tariff deadline in 9th July and incoming 10-12 tariff letters coming in from Trump in the next few days, gold could have potential to go upwards with market understands this jobs data is not strong as it seems.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ftdsystem
Pound slips as UK payrolls slideThe British pound continues to show sharp swings this week. After a spectacular 1.3% gain on Monday, GBP/USD has reversed directions and is trading at 1.2233 in the European session, down 0.68% on the day. The UK payrolls report, a reliable indicator of employment growth, showed a sharp decline of 47 thousand m/m in December 2024. This was the largest decline since Nov. 2020 and follows a revised -32 thousand in November. The back-to-back declines are a result of the government's new payroll taxes in the budget, which is causing businesses to release workers. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) remains hot and increased to 5.6% in December, in line with the market estimate and higher than the 5.2% gain in November. While the weak employment data will be a headache for the UK government, it supports the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in order to kick-start the flagging economy. The BoE held rates in December and meets next on Feb. 6, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 85%. Inflation has remained sticky and the jump in wage growth is a reminder of the upside risk of inflation. The BoE may be looking at rate cuts in the coming months but it will have to do so cautiously, ever mindful of inflation. In the US, the strong nonfarm payrolls report for December is raising the possibility that the easing cycle may be over. The Bank of America doesn't expect any rate cuts in 2025 and says the risks for the next move are tilted towards a hike. The Fed started the easing cycle with a bang in September 2024, chopping rates by a half-point, but the strong economy means Fed policy makers may have to consider rate hikes in 2025. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2278. and is putting pressure on support at 1.2211 1.2395 and 1.2462 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
US Unemployed to Employed as Indicator of Job Market HealthIn this chart, we use the following symbols: ECONOMICS:USNFP , FRED:UNEMPLOY ECONOMICS:USNFP represents the number of jobs created in a month. FRED:UNEMPLOY represents the number of unemployed individuals for a month. Assuming exactly 1 payroll per person , the ratio 100 * ECONOMICS:USNFP / ( FRED:UNEMPLOY + ECONOMICS:USNFP ) estimates the percentage of previously unemployed individuals who transitioned to employment in the month. If enough jobs are created, the current FRED:UNEMPLOY should equal the previous month's FRED:UNEMPLOY minus ECONOMICS:USNFP , as the jobs created should correspond to the unemployed who found work. When sufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed decreases, and the ratio increases. A "healthy" value for this ratio is around 2.5% , indicating that approximately 2.5% of unemployed individuals transition to employment each month . Conversely, if insufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed rises, and the ratio decreases. Ratios around 0% or negative values are usually observed during or before recessions, indicating an unhealthy job market . For last two consecutive months, the ratio has been 0.17% , suggesting an unhealthy job market . Similar patterns were observed before the DotCom and GFC recessions. If this trend continues for several months, it strongly suggests that the US is either on the verge of or already in a recession. Historically, when the 30-week SMA crosses below the 50-week SMA, it signals a recession. This signal was triggered in June '24.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by eugene_sea
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/7/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023 - PR High: 15211.50 - PR Low: 15211.50 - NZ Spread: 38.75 Big open interest jump Discount brokers adjust margin req.: 08:30 – Average Hourly Earnings - Nonfarm Payrolls - Unemployment Rate 50% intraday retracement off RTH inventory - Holding daily range, half-back Evening Stats (As of 1:35 AM) - Weekend Gap: +0.09% (closed) - Session Open ATR: 217.38 - Volume: 22K - Open Int: 253K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -9.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 15533 - Mid: 15247 - Short: 14675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQU2023Long
by mv3trader5
Pivoting to Jobs, Inflation, and Interest Rates?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/02 We started last trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles". With the Senate passing the debt ceiling bill, the curtains are now drawn on that drama. With the much hotter than expected NFP numbers, the markets could soon be pivoting to a focus on the macroeconomic factors again. Currently, our directional models indicate no bias and are in an indeterminate state. Positional Trading Models: Following the trading plans published yesterday, our positional models went short at 4225.83 with a hard stop at 4242. If the stop is hit, the models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for FRI. 06/02: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4250, 4231, 4206, or 4197 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4247, 4227, 4194, or 4184 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4189. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling, #china, #nfp, #jobs
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Silver - Long Above Key SupportWe see Silver moving higher and continuing its recent uptrend from September lows just above $17 whilst it is above key support at around $21. However, we await key data releases such as the Q3 US GDP growth rate tomorrow and non-farm payrolls on Friday. This could indicate whether FED chair Powell will continue with aggressive rate hikes or increase market expectations that he would pivot as the US economy slows in particular with the recent lower than expected inflation data. A more dovish stance would boost Silver demand both as a safe haven and in it's use for industrial production.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by KQMarkets
Silver - Still Neutral Pre Non Farm PayrollsWe still hold a neutral view on Silver and feel that non farm payrolls on Friday could trigger significant price action and enable us to form a directional view. The precious metal has failed to consolidate above resistance around $28 over continued fears of rising inflation and the possibility of the FED raising rates. Therefore a greater than expected payroll number could increase the odds of a FED rate hike and result in Silver prices breaking below support $26.6.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by KQMarkets
1
Dax - Short - Pre PayrollsThe Dax could move lower towards support around 14,000 as equities continue to look shaky over inflation fears and subsequent comments by Yellen that as a result rates may need to be raised sooner than previously anticipated by the market. Additionally, the RSI is at 65 indicating the index could start to become overbought as we await non farm payrolls on Friday, which could highlight further that the US economy is overheating and inflation will overshoot the FED's target rate.
XETR:DAXShort
by KQMarkets
2
The news is all bad for the economy, good for goldThe economic news this week is pretty much all bad, with payroll data, manufacturing data, and non-manufacturing data all showing a broad slowdown across the whole economy. The dollar is showing real weakness amidst the slowdown. Both the dollar's weakness and the return of fear to the economy should be good for gold. Here are the critical levels to watch in the dollar. A break below the channel/trend line would signal an upward breakout for gold.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Will today’s Non-Farm Payrolls push the USD/JPY below 108.00?As we head towards the weekly close, our focus will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls, and by extension, the yield-sensitive currency pair, the USD/JPY. After the drop back below 109.00, brought on by Monday’s announcement that US president Trump is to restore tariffs on steel and aluminium shipped from Brazil and Argentina, in addition to his administration proposing tariffs "up to 100%" on certain French goods (about $2.4 billion worth) in retaliation to France's digital services tax, a risk-off kicked in and 10-year UST yields dropped alongside the USD/JPY. In addition to that, mixed US data releases over the last days, such as the ADP (usually known as a solid indication of NFP performance) coming in at only 67,000 against an expected 140,000, made it likely for a disappointing NFP reading today, and a drop below 108.00 in the USD/JPY. If Non-Farm Payrolls print below 150,000, the way that market participants priced the Fed to not move in regards to their interest rate level next week, could result in a sharper shift and bearish catalyst for the USD/JPY. While we still don’t see the Fed shifting policy even if NFPs disappoint today, but increasingly dovish rhetoric becomes likely, and would drive the USD/JPY lower. Ready to start trading the live markets? Then open a free account with Admiral Markets - 8,000+ instruments to choose from, some of the market's tightest typical spreads, and the world's #1 multi-asset trading platform. www.admiralmarkets.com Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Short
by Admiral_Markets
Ahead of NFPBy Andria Pichidi Yesterday’s contraction signal from the disappointing US Manufacturing PMI rekindled concerns about the fallout from ongoing geopolitical trade tensions, while this adds further pressure on the upcoming Jobs report on Friday. The reading was an indication that trade and tariff turmoil continues to cast a dark shadow over the global economy. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped to 49.1 in August, weaker than expected, but not a surprise, after slipping 0.5 ticks to 51.2 in July. This is the first time in contractionary territory since August 2016, and it is the lowest since January 2016. Every component but supplier delivers is now below the 50 expansion, contraction line. Meanwhile, the Markit manufacturing PMI slipped as well, printing the lowest outcome since September 2009, as it holds above the contraction line. Significant is the fact that the employment sub-component fell to 47.4 from 51.7. This could be a negative singal for the upcoming jobs report from US on Friday, as a possible contraction in manufacturing sector may result to cut the number of Jobs in the particular sector. However, let’s flip back to the Non-Farm payrolls report which is expected to post a rise up to 165k in August after the in-line outcome seen last month with a 164k increase. This forecast is well below the 223K seen in 2018. The jobless rate ticking down to 3.6%, alongside gains of 0.3% for both hours-worked and hourly earnings. Initial claims remained firm in August, while most consumer confidence eased to still firm levels. Most producer sentiment measures rebounded slightly, but vehicle assemblies could moderate from an elevated June-July pace. Meanwhile, yesterday, US reports revealed a surprisingly large August ISM-NMI bounce to 56.4 from a 3-year low of 53.7, alongside a similar ISM-adjusted bounce to 56.1 from a 3-year low of 53.0. The employment gauge fell, however, to a 2-year low of 53.1 from 56.2. The July factory goods report largely tracked assumptions, with a weak -0.1% nondurable inventory figure but a firm 0.8% gain for nondurable factory shipments and orders, alongside only minor revisions to the durables data for orders, equipment, shipments, and inventories. We saw a big 195k August ADP rise but a 1k uptick for initial claims to 217k. Yesterday's August vehicle sales figures revealed a 1% rise to a 17.0 mln clip that beat estimates, though we expect a vehicle assembly rate pull-back to the 11.3 mln area after a three-month climb to 11.6 mln in July. The Q2 productivity report revealed no revisions in previously released gains of 2.3% in Q2 and 3.5% in Q1, though we did see upward revisions in the already-robust 2019 compensation figures. We still see balanced risk for our 165k August nonfarm payroll estimate. All of today's data are tracking an economy that is exhibiting continued moderate growth, despite the market's slowdown fears. We still expect a Q2 GDP boost to 2.1% from 2.0%, followed by 2.4% growth in Q3. FX Markets so far today: The dollar majors have remained within respective Thursday ranges, though some yen and Swiss franc cross rates have clawed out fresh highs, with GBP-JPY and AUD-CHF, for instance both seeing new one-month highs. The backdrop remains one of a cautious risk-back-on sentiment, with investors finding tonic from the U.S. and China's path to another round of face-to-face trade negotiations, and by market-favourable political developments in both the UK and Italy. There are, of course, good reasons to be sceptical with regard to the prospects for a breakthrough on the U.S.-China trade front, given the multiplicity of past disappointments and with Beijing seemingly of a mindset, unencumbered by an election cycle, to use its tactical advantage of patience through to the U.S. presidential election in November 2020. On the Brexit front, Labour, the principal opposition in the UK, has made it clear they won't support PM Johnson's call for a new general election until after the no-deal bill is passed, and not until October 19, which is the date -- assuming, as looks 100% certain, there hasn't been a new Brexit deal agreed in Parliament or that Parliament doesn't vote in favour a no-deal exit -- that a 3-month Brexit extension will become the legal default. Labour reportedly wants to delay an election until after October 31, in fact, thinking it will damage Johnson politically as he would have failed to deliver Brexit "no its or buts" by Halloween. This should keep the pound underpinned, for now, though the spectre of a no-deal Brexit hasn't disappeared as Johnson and his Tory party could of course still win in an election. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex