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Canadian dollar starts week higherIt was a week to forget for the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD jumped 1.51%, marking the Canadian dollar's worst weekly performance since mid-August. The currency is in positive territory, as USD/CAD is down 0.31% on the day. Canada releases the Raw Materials Price Index later today. The inflation index is expected to decline -1.3%, following a -1.1% beforehand. This week's highlight is GDP for November, which will be released on Tuesday. In the US, the week wrapped up with mixed numbers. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, rose in December 4.9% y/y, up from 4.7% and above the forecast of 4.8%. This marks the highest gain since 1983 and reinforces expectations that the Fed will act aggressively to curb surging inflation. However, personal income rose 0.3% m/m, less than the 0.4% consensus. Consumer spending declined by -0.6%, less than the forecast of -0.7%. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment fell from 6.8 to 67.4, its lowest reading since 2011. These numbers point to weakness in consumer spending and confidence, which makes for a confusing picture, given that inflation is running rampant. The markets are having difficulty figuring out how many rate hikes are on the way, and Fed policymakers also have differing views on the subject. How hawkish will the Fed be? It is unclear, with forecasts ranging between 3 and 7 hikes this year. A March liftoff seems assured, with the likelihood of a quarter-point hike at 84%, and a 50-bps rise priced at 15%. Traditionally, the Fed raises rates in 0.25% increments, and that's likely what it will deliver. However, a 0.50% hike cannot be ruled out, even though the Fed hasn't implemented such a large hike in twenty years. Such a dramatic move would send a decisive message to the markets that the Fed means business and is determined to stamp out high inflation. The Fed could use a credibility-booster after Jerome Powell stuck to the 'transient inflation' script even when it was glaringly evident that surging inflation wasn't going anywhere. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2857 and 1.2948  There is support at 1.2615 and 1.2464
by OANDA
Current inflation has nothing to do with the FedWith the most anticipated FOMC announcement in a long time coming tomorrow I'm throwing out my prediction: the Fed will be surprisingly patient with their tapering. This chart shows a few reasons why: 1. M2 growth does not have anywhere close to the same effect as it did on inflation in 1970. From the 3 decades 1970-2000 the CPI Growth/M2 growth was in the range of 0.65-0.75. Something happened in the next decade that broke this ratio down where it has been declining ever since - QE. Quantitative easing allowed the Fed to flood bank reserves into the system to protect from a liquidity crisis. This is what people refer to as "printing money" but in reality it that money is not being injected into the real economy. Banks reserves need to get loaned out and circulated in the economy to have an effect on inflation and this appetite for loans is not something their QE controls. Lower rates may have a limited affect but the majority comes from aggregate demand factors that are difficult to control. The second chart shows the first derivate of CPI/M2 over a 12 month period. Comparing the levels in the 1970s to our current period should make it clear we are not seeing even close to the same effects on CPI that we did then. We are still in an era more similar to 2010-2020 than 1970-1980 and the Fed doesn't even need to stop purchases to see the growth rate slow. 2. The dollar has not has barely been effected and already looks to have bottomed. The last chart shows how drastically the dollar index plunged in the two CPI spikes of the 1970s. This preluded the actual CPI numbers which is intuitive - the dollar plunging takes time to actually reach the consumer. This current cycle we haven't seen anything close to that. The dollar has held steady and is relatively unchanged since 2014. The dollar is not seeing a massive decline relative to other currencies like we did in the 1970s. 3. Supply issues have clearly had an effect on CPI It's not a surprise that Covid severely damaged the worlds supply chains. Pretty much every earnings call from a company that is exposed to the global supply chain mentions this. The New York Fed has a gauge here if you want to see for yourself. Luckily, it seems to be peaking but we are not sure of that yet. In summary, the inflation numbers we've seen are likely not being caused by monetary policy and the Fed knows this. Supply pressures look like they are starting to ease but we are not out of the woods. A drastic measure by the Fed may not even work to stop the inflation if my my assumptions are correct and it would induce a much more damaging stagflation. I predict the Fed is extremely cautious with their moves and we will not see anything drastic in tomorrows statement.
INDEX:DXYLong
by Seth-Goldberg
The start of a long train of correlationsSorry for the late post, I had to tweek this chart here. This is a comparison chart showing real disposable income to personal consumption expenditures, personal savings and corporate profit. Notice how the top two are now inverted. It's not 100% but that is your inflation. Less disposable income, higher priced expenditures. On the bottom I was tracking savings vs Corporate Profit. This was caused by the hand outs during the pandemic. This has now reverted back to pre 2020 levels after all that savings caught up in peoples accounts during the pandemic was needed after the money stopped flowing. But, how does this correlate to the previous bonds chart? Well in a subtle and curious way. As the correction in savings happened, inflation kicked up. This is highlighted by a date range. Red date ranges are 08 and the pandemic and the yellow is the inflation start. The key to the bond chart correlation being inflation. Now I get the obvious here, No I dont think the free handouts caused all this inflation, that would be crazy, just something I was tracking is all. In reality there are WAYYYYYY to many things going on to put inflation into a chart. Metals are still close to short supply, tech is hurting bad, the supply chain is still semi frozen and governments are still flip flopping between open and closed.
FRED:DSPIC96
by Joshuakm
XAUUSD - EOM July 2021We have been playing the corrective bullish market sentiment since EOM June by taking advantage of bullish momentum. We have fallen again inside the previous OB (Order Block) created at the beginning of the month between 1795 KL and 1812.500 KL and I believe it is to position itself for the next impulsive move the market might have this upcoming week for EOM + lot's of fundamental data to be released. Let's look at the agenda for this up and coming week: Fundamentals: Tuesday - CB Consumer Confidence Wednesday - FOMC Statement Thursday - Advance GDP / Unemployment Claims / Pending Home Sales Friday - PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Each piece of news is all highly correlated to interest rates, inflation and overall economic health. The Federal Reserve's statement will have a lot do with the impulsive moves the market will undergo specifically taking about the US Index (DXY) and safe haven XAUUSD (Gold). Remember, what is good for the US Dollar means bearish momentum for Gold and viceversa. Technicals: Buys 1795 - HRHR Buys if price fails to break and close below KL with intraday candle closures (30M/1H/4H) 1803 - MRMR Buys looking to break above 1803 and re-test to easily re visit previous intraday highs at 1812.500 whic is a nice 90-100 pip range to scalp a good 20-30 pips. 1812.500 - Break andd re-test at 1812.500 KL would mean safer buys to move towards next KL at 1920 1836 - Safest buys due to final BOS to move towards clean traffic to the left and re-visit 1852 KL. Sells 1795 - Only looking for safest sells below 1795 KL with intraday candle closures to confirm buyers exhaustion, sellers jumping in and fundamental data (FOMC, GDP, PCE) to be hawkish creating good market sentiment towards the US Dollar and liquidity being taken from Gold to invest into DXY currency safe haven + Global Equity Markets. 1829 - HRHR Sells if we re-visit and fail to break these previous Highs It will be a week filled with fireworks so like always stick to your trading plan and manage risk accordingly and appropriately. For fundamental data releases be cautios of position sizing and always have a SL in place to prevent heavy drawdowns. Do not look for trades on Monday since it needs to better position itself for the weeks fundamental data. Happy Weekend /// #lumafx #fxluma #xauusd #gold
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lumafx
The Put/Call Ratio in a NutshellWhat is the put/call ratio? The put/call ratio (PCE) is a popular barometer of market sentiment, which shows the ratio of trading volumes of Put vs Call options. However, with distortions in the current price of nearly every instrument off the back of "free money," and persistent market intervention by policy makers, we're not quite seeing the price discovery we're used to, which has made it more difficult to make sense of the Put-Call, and other technical indicators as well. What is a derivative? To understand the value of the put/call ratio, we must first understand the derivatives market. A derivative is a (leveraged) instrument, which gives the holder a right to either buy (call) or sell (put) a specific amount of a stock (or other instrument), at a specified price, and timeframe. If your'e holding a put, you're likely expecting the price of the stock to fall, while holders of calls are expecting the price to rise. Puts are usually used as a solid hedging tool, while calls are more often related to speculative behaviour. How to use the put-call ratio? When the put/call rises above 1, it indicates that market sentient is shifting more bearish. At the moment, we're looking at a put/call of around 0.46, which indicates that market sentiment is very bullish, and actually, it's been bullish for quite some time as you can see in the chart. When we see a massive shift in the put/call back above 1, naturally it would be showing that investors and traders are becoming more defensive.
USI:PCEEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
32
Canadian dollar rises on strong Manufacturing PMIThe Canadian dollar has kicked off the trading week with strong gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2669, down 0.55% on the day. US yields moved higher last week, particularly the 10-year treasuries, which rose as high as 1.6% per cent. This move boosted the US dollar against the major currencies, and USD/CAD climbed close to 1% last week. However, bond yields have since stabilised. Yields on the US 10-year treasuries are back around 1.40%. I expect bonds will continue to fluctuate and cause further volatility in the currency markets. The US dollar index fell below support at the 90-level late last week, but the greenback has flexed some muscle and the index is currently at 91.08. The US economy continues to show signs of recovery, and expectations are high that first-quarter growth will be strong. A major driver behind economic growth is consumer spending, and the January Personal Spending release came in at 2.4%, its best read in seven months. Personal income levels were also up sharply, but inflation levels still remain muted. The Core PCE Price Index, which is believed to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, remained at 0.3%, a level not exceeded in over 10 years. There are concerns that the massive stimulus program of USD 1.9 trillion could cause higher inflation, and with it the danger of the US economy overheating. After strong gains by USD/CAD late last week, we are seeing a reversal on Monday, with the pair losing ground. Resistance remains strong at 1.2787, as this line has held since the first week in February. Above, we find resistance at 1.2842. USD/CAD is putting pressure on support at 1.2632. If the pair breaks below this line, it could fall sharply, with no support until 1.2532. This is followed by a swing low at 1.2468, which the pair touched late last week.
by OANDA
Canadian dollar rises on strong Manufacturing PMIThe Canadian dollar has kicked off the trading week with strong gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2669, down 0.55% on the day. US yields moved higher last week, particularly the 10-year treasuries, which rose as high as 1.6% per cent. This move boosted the US dollar against the major currencies, and USD/CAD climbed close to 1% last week. However, bond yields have since stabilised. Yields on the US 10-year treasuries are back around 1.40%. I expect bonds will continue to fluctuate and cause further volatility in the currency markets. The US dollar index fell below support at the 90-level late last week, but the greenback has flexed some muscle and the index is currently at 91.08. The US economy continues to show signs of recovery, and expectations are high that first-quarter growth will be strong. A major driver behind economic growth is consumer spending, and the January Personal Spending release came in at 2.4%, its best read in seven months. Personal income levels were also up sharply, but inflation levels still remain muted. The Core PCE Price Index, which is believed to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, remained at 0.3%, a level not exceeded in over 10 years. There are concerns that the massive stimulus program of USD 1.9 trillion could cause higher inflation, and with it the danger of the US economy overheating. After strong gains by USD/CAD late last week, we are seeing a reversal on Monday, with the pair losing ground. Resistance remains strong at 1.2787, as this line has held since the first week in February. Above, we find resistance at 1.2842. USD/CAD is putting pressure on support at 1.2632. If the pair breaks below this line, it could fall sharply, with no support until 1.2532. This is followed by a swing low at 1.2468, which the pair touched late last week. .
by OANDA
3
Recession Watch: PCE growthHere is a chart of quarterly PCE growth, which gives another useful 'recession watch' indicator. It is currently at a critical level and worth keeping a close eye on. Commentary from "The Recession Playbook" from Morgan Stanley: "With growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) below 2.5% sending a reasonably consistent recession signal. Each of the last 5 recessions has seen real PCE actually shrink on a y/y basis by the end of the recession, but leading into the recessions a large decline in the growth of PCE is also very consistent. Given the heavy reliance of the US economy on the domestic consumer, slowing consumer spend is perhaps an obvious precondition for any recession." The chart data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Data site (FRED). fred.stlouisfed.org It can be studied in Tradingview using the ticker: 'QUANDL:FRED/DPCERO1Q156NBEA'
TVC:US10Y
by dime
3