PEG
FLIR, somewhat undervalued technology stock on trend line watchFLIR Systems makes high-tech imaging systems. The stock has been selling off since its last earnings report, despite the fact that earnings and guidance both beat analyst estimates. Perhaps the selloff was because the company failed to issue forward guidance, or perhaps it was because free cash flow took an 18% hit last quarter and FLIR announced a 2.5% debt issuance in July. Regardless, FLIR now looks cheap, and sentiment has been improving lately.
Valuation
I expect that FLIR's dividend will yield 1.9% in the next 12 months. Its PEG is about 17, so not great, but not terrible. PSG ratio is 2.72. Again, not great, but not terrible. The real case for the stock being undervalued is that it's near the bottom of its three-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. Despite the decrease in free cash flow, the company has a 77/100 financial health score from S&P Global. S&P Global also rates the stock 72/100 for its valuation, meaning the stock is solidly, but not extremely, undervalued. One reason I like FLIR is its patent portfolio. Patents granted are a leading indicator of earnings growth, and over the last three years, FLIR has been granted and average of 16 patents per billion dollars of current market cap. That very respectable number puts its patents-to-market cap ratio in the same league as Intel, which ranked 4th in the nation for total patents granted in 2019. In short, FLIR is a leading innovator for its market cap size.
Sentiment and Technicals
Analysts have been steadily upgrading FLIR, and it currently has an 8/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score. Options traders are quite bullish on the stock, with a put/call ratio of just 0.29. The technicals on FLIR are still negative, but improved slightly today to "sell" from yesterday's "strong sell" reading on both the daily and weekly charts. I'll be watching for a bullish cross of the trend line FLIR has formed since February as my buying signal.
Northop Grumman a buy near trend line supportDefense contractor Northop Grumman fell hard toward trend line support both before and after its earnings report last Friday, despite a solid beat of analyst expectations. The fall has occurred as analysts adjusted forward estimates of earnings and sales downward for the next two years. Despite the downward revisions, Northop Grumman remains a growth company, with PEG ratio of 1.8.
The share price has fallen much faster than earnings expectations, making NOC a very attractive buy as it approaches support. Let's look at NOC's current price ratios compared to its three-year median price ratios on earnings dates. Here is the implied upside from the current price ratio to the median price ratios on earnings dates over the last three years:
P/E: 21%
Fwd P/E: 18%
P/S: 17%
Fwd P/S: 21%
P/D: 17%
Fwd P/D: 23%
P/B: 31%
P/FCF: 81%
Sentiment on NOC is positive, with an 8.3/10 analyst summary score (average rating Buy). The news environment for the company is good, thanks to several US government contracts recently signed, and several others recently successfully completed. Open interest on NOC is about evenly split between bulls and bears, but the 30-day average of trading volume favors the bulls.
NOC is nearing support from July lows and a seven-month trend line. I will look to make a buy around 287.
HPE sentiment is changingLast week I put up a post titled "HPE sentiment may change for the better," but the post got blocked because I had a link in there that the mods felt constituted advertising. Well, HPE sentiment has begun to change for the better, as I predicted, so I think this is worth an update and repost with the offending link removed.
I track metrics of both value and sentiment, and I usually only buy a stock if measures of both value and sentiment are aligned. I've noticed, though, that there's more money to be made if you can pick a stock with good value and poor sentiment that's about to improve. HPE may be a candidate for just such a positive change in sentiment.
Value
I've struggled with how to calculate PEG ratios post-Covid. I generally take my earnings growth rate from an approximately five-year linear regression line (three years past actuals, two years future estimates). But when you've got a black swan event right in the middle of your time series, what do you do with that? Do you use a continuous function that makes the growth rate look negative? Or do you use a piecewise function that makes it look positive? I've settled on taking the average of the two. So, keep that in mind when I tell you that I've calculated HPE's PEG ratio at 3.39 and PSG ratio at 0.36. I typically multiply the two values together to get a composite PEG*PSG ratio, in this case 1.23. Of the stocks I track, the only one with a better PEG*PSG than this is $HPQ.
HPE is also trading near the bottom of its 3-year valuation range in terms of forward P/E and forward P/S. It has generally traded at about .75 forward P/S. Right now it's about .47. Implicitly, there's about 59% upside from here. Do the same calculation with forward P/E, and the numbers imply about 40% upside from here.
Another thing I really like about HPE is how innovative it is. Over the last three years, HPE has averaged 50 patents granted per billion dollars of current market cap, making it more innovative for its size than any other company I watch save IBM. Throw in the fact that HPE is expected to pay 4.8% in dividends over the next 12 months, and you've got a stock that combines both shareholder returns and growth potential. That's rare.
Sentiment
HPE's Equity Starmine Summary Score improved from 1.6/10 to 3.7/10 in the last 24 hours, meaning that analysts are growing more positive on the stock. The upgrade caused a nice spike in the stock price today.
The sentiment change comes after HPE reported 3Q results and not only beat analyst expectations on earnings and revenue, but also beat analyst expectations on 4Q guidance. Analysts sharply increased earnings estimates for the next couple years after the earnings report. Perhaps even more importantly, HPE dramatically improved its financial health from the year-ago quarter. From the conference call: "Our Q3 free cash flow of $924 million was up $276 million year over year, driven by a record cash flow from operations as a result of our improved execution this quarter. . . . We generated cash flow from operations of approximately $1.5 billion. This is the highest level for the past 11 quarters, as we improved our operational execution." The company does expect cash flow to be sequentially lower next quarter due to restructuring, but the company is still in stellar shape financially, with an $8.5 billion cash reserve.
Given HPE's strong results, I expect continued analyst upgrades. And I'm not alone in thinking so; HPE now has a bullish put/call ratio of 0.51.
Technicals
HPE's technicals are neutral at the moment, with the stock in a triangle. A couple ways to play it would be to buy near the bottom of the triangle or wait for an upside breakout. I do think there's a good chance HPE will make an upside breakout in the coming weeks, overall market conditions permitting.
Allstate should make a bullish trend line breakAllstate is one of my top picks in terms of both value and sentiment. In terms of technicals, it's a classic potential trend line breakout play.
Value
After a significant selloff this year, Allstate is still trading near the bottom of its 3-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. The company is financially healthy, with a 78/100 score for financial health from S&P Global. It pays a solid, but sustainable dividend; I estimate 2.37% dividend return in the next 12 months, assuming the dividend gets bumped up to 58 cents in the first quarter of next year. In the last 12 months, the dividend was only 16% of GAAP EPS, which is a very comfortable level. The PEG ratio of 2.77 is pretty good, and the PSG ratio of 0.25 is extremely good. (Admittedly, analyst coverage is a little thin, so we're not working with very many different estimates of future earnings and sales.) In fact, the only value metrics by which Allstate looks a little lackluster are its ESG score and earnings surprise history, both a little below the market average.
Sentiment
Sentiment on Allstate has been improving over the last month, with a large increase in the Equity Starmine Summary Score to its current rating of 9.7/10. Allstate got a hefty settlement from PG&E last month, so the news environment looks good. The put/call ratio on Allstate is bullish, but not strongly bullish, at 0.69. (A put/call ratio under 1 is bullish; a put/call ratio over 1 is bearish.)
Technicals
Technicals are somewhat negative for now, but given the improvement in analyst ratings, I expect that Allstate will soon make a bullish trend line cross. For a swing trade, I am setting my profit target in the 105-106 range. I will go ahead and buy ahead of the trend line cross, but another way to play this would be to wait for a confirmed cross to place a buy.
ABBV buy the dip ahead of pharma seasonAbbvie's volume has slackened somewhat after its recent triangle breakout, and it has broken its steep upward trendline. We may see a small correction late this month as Abbvie pulls back toward triangle top. However, if healthcare and pharmaceutical sector earnings continue to deliver this month (as they have so far), then Abbvie should get some buying volume along with the rest of the sector.
And then in August, a period of seasonal pharmaceutical strength begins. In The Stock Traders' Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch makes an extensive study of seasonal stock market performance by sectors. His third-best-performing seasonal trade by average 10-year return (16.8%) is to go long biotech from early August to early March. I believe that's because this is the busy season for FDA drug application reviews.
The pharma sector does have an unusual level of political risk this year. Democrats have traditionally been hard on the pharma sector, and they look poised this year for a sweep. If the polls remain strongly blue, then we might see pharma underperform this year.
That said, I think a lot of the political risk is already priced in. Whereas most of the stocks I look at are at the very top of their 3-year valuation range in terms of forward earnings and sales, pharmaceutical companies like Abbvie and Merck are trading in the bottom quartile of their 3-year valuation range. With forward PEG ratio around 2, forward PSG ratio around 0.5, and a whopping 5% dividend, Abbvie looks really attractively valued. I've been doing a lot of deal-hunting lately, and this is one of the only stocks I've seen with both a strong growth story and a valuation I really like. The analysts and options traders like it too; Abbvie has a 9.9/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score, and near-dated options positions are heavily skewed toward calls.
A trading plan on MicrosoftOn its earnings report today, Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and guidance, but issued first-quarter revenue guidance slightly below the Wall Street consensus. The poor revenue guidance was partly, but not completely, offset by slightly better-than expected guidance for first-quarter operating costs. Overall, the magnitude of the earnings beat was much greater than the magnitude of the guidance cut, and my valuation metrics on Microsoft improved today: PEG dropped from 9+ to about 8.76.
Microsoft is still certainly overvalued, however, along with the rest of the FAANG+ stocks. It's about 30-40% above the top end of its traditional range in terms of forward P/E and P/S. For a long-term buy-and-hold play, I would want to see Microsoft drop all the way to my second volume support before I'd want to buy.
In the short term, Microsoft sentiment still looks pretty good. Options traders are net bullish in their positioning, and the Starmine Equity Summary Score for MSFT is 9.9. ESG has mattered a lot lately, and Microsoft earns one of the best ESG ratings I've seen. Thus I think we'll probably see a bounce from 203 either tomorrow or, more likely, Monday or Tuesday next week. A swing trade over the weekend might be a winner as the market holds out hope for vaccine and stimulus news.
In macroeconomic terms, we saw the "recovery" story start to change today. Initial jobless claims turned upward for the first time in 16 weeks. Lots of other indicators I watch are also starting to look a little more negative. Thus, we may be headed into a period of renewed market weakness until the South and Midwest successfully flatten their coronavirus curves and resume reopening their economies. I highly doubt we'll drop all the way to that lower volume support at $135 unless the Moderna, Pfizer, and Astrazeneca vaccines all fail in clinical trials, but a dip to the upper support around $183.50 in August or September after stimulus news fades may not be out of the question, and from there it'd be worth swinging for a bounce. I will target a small entry at $183.50 and a 3x larger entry for $135, contingent on macroeconomic news.
Hindsight Pig-Peg - A Single 15-min Candle = 1000-Point Rally?Hindsight Pig-Peg's are not as impressive as foresight Pig-Pegs. Even incorrect foresight Pig-Pegs (see all prior Pig-Pegs) are more impressive than anything made in hindsight.
Why do this then? Because I think it may provide crucial information for future market rallies.
Broadly speaking, this may also offer some insight into the true nature of reversals, and possibly, some things to look for.
If this is correct, then that means that the impetus for 1000 points worth of bullish price action can be pinned to a teeny-tiny, singular 15-minute candle.
SPCFD:SPX
Odd Coincidence + Piggish Peg = Potential PrecisionBasically stumbled upon a sequence of daily candles from June/July 2019 that looked identical to the 30-minute chart I was watching last night. I never use this timeframe and I also don't love watching tape until 1 AM, but today is an important day in terms of next month's direction.
Conclusion: See comments below for evidence, or simply wait and see if my Pig-Peg is right during the first two hours of trading. Recommend using it to trade the rest of the day, if so.
More importantly, If it turns out a near-exact resemblance, then that would provide empirical evidence for a very interesting concept about markets: that the S&P 500 Index is not only self-similar (for example, typically during a retracement of a pre-established area) but that when it does exhibit self-similarity on different timeframes (i.e. the Daily Chart at 3000 in 2019 is self-similar to current price movement at 3000), that it goes through the same sequence exact sequence at a accelerated pace.
Initial Thoughts if this Concept Backtests and Holds:
- Current 30-Min vs. 2019 Daily equates to a 48x decrease in the time it takes to complete the same sequence
- It is fair to posit that this particular instance is likely the largest timeframe differential in history because of how recently we crossed the 3000 threshold
- A fair example question would be "Does the time between newly established areas and retracement of a said area affect the time it takes to complete a given sequence"
- There are many other implications worth exploring and many other difficult questions that arise if this evidence holds up in any capacity
- It's not completely mind-blowing if you fully embrace the concept of fractals and harmonic price movements
Bottom Line: Nothing is proven until it is backtested, but feel that I have to share this publically in case it does have greater meaning.
On a less scientific note, if the Pig-Peg ties out, some serious cake can be made in the near future.
Let me know what you think and godspeed.
- The People's Pig
PIG-PEG for 5/28/20 - S&P AM Selloff, Bottoms 2991, Closes 3001SPCFD:SPX
According to a recently published study comparing the current S&P chart with a randomly selected 2019 time period from March to June*, there is a near-perfect correlation in candle height and form for this week's trend.
Apparently, the key to understanding what will happen tomorrow in 30-min increments is based entirely on what happened then, spread out through the corresponding, daily timeframe.
Pegs are set for a bottom of 2991 and a close of 3001. Intraday will be sideways and mostly gross,
If the peg is either very close or exactly correct, everyone on TradingView will have the temporary master key to market omniscience. Unlike the 5G master key, I am not trying to rip anyone off nor am I charging anyone! That's mainly because the article is almost definitely incorrect with the possibility of a total direction miss.
In any case, the peg is in and you get what you pay for EOD. Good luck.
I
BMY is worth buyingBristol-Myers Squibb says it has seen no major business disruptions and expects no decrease in global demand for its drugs this year. That means the 3.5% dividend yield should stay stable, and BMY is a great value at 1.3 PEG. BMY also just got FDA approval for a multiple sclerosis drug, which could turn out to be a pretty big deal.
Most of the market has been trading based on macroeconomics, but as individual companies like BMY issue quantitative guidance, I think we're going to see more trading on company specifics. I bought a small position here and will add the dip if BMY heads south with the rest of the market next week.
Nokia may be worth nibbling as it approaches supportFactset, an agency that polls analysts, released a newsletter today titled "S&P 500 NOW PROJECTED TO REPORT A YOY DECLINE IN EARNINGS IN Q1 2020." The newsletter shows that analyst estimates of S&P 500 earnings have fallen from an expected 7% growth rate in Q1 to an expected -0.1% growth rate, and they're still coming down.
However, the newsletter also breaks things down by sector, and when you slice it that way, things look more complicated. The hardest hit sectors are materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary, all poised for double digit earnings decline. A few sectors are still poised for earnings growth in Q1, including communication services, with a 13+% growth rate. Information technology and utilities come in second and third place, with projected growth over 5%. Also set to grow are healthcare and real estate.
Now, earnings expectations likely will continue to decline, and even the outperforming sectors will fall with the rest of the market. But the outperforming sectors will start to find support sooner, and they will get outsized bounces when the market rallies. I don't suggest putting a lot of money here just yet, but it's worth taking a few nibbles at attractively valued companies in these sectors.
Nokia has support from about $3.30-3.50. The company has an attractive PEG of about 0.73, and it's been signing lots of deals lately in connection with the rollout of 5G. It plunged after suspending its dividend last year, but as the company recovers I think we could see the dividend return.
Buying the dip on SGCSo TradingView is showing the wrong price on this; it's 10.90 right now, having dipped with the rest of the market mid-day after a strong open due to a large earnings and revenue beat. SGC's PEG is 0.8, according to Zacks, and its dividend yield is nearly 4%. That makes it a really good value. Unfortunately SGC offered no guidance, but the earnings and revenue beat today should bring some upward estimate revisions from analysts in the coming weeks. March 20 calls at the $10 or $12.50 strike wouldn't be a bad bet after today's report.
First-ever dividend on CURO is bullish long-termI'm uncertain what CURO will do tomorrow after its mixed earnings report, lowish sales guidance, and announcement of a share buyback and first-ever dividend. What I do believe is that the initiation of a dividend will be quite bullish for the stock in the medium-to-long-term. Stocks that initiate a dividend for the first time tend, over the next 6-12 months, to move toward a higher multiple than they've traded at in the past.
CURO currently trades at about 7.5 P/E and 3.5 forward P/E, according to data from Fidelity. Its PEG ratio is an extraordinarily low 0.3, making it one of the most undervalued stocks in the entire market. On CURO, I think it's reasonable to expect forward P/E to come up into the 10-15 range, at least, over the next year. That would require roughly tripling the share price from its current extremely undervalued level. The dividend yield, by the way, is a little over 2% at the current price, so you have that to look forward to as well. CURO's share buyback should also help boost the price, and then of course there's the expected 3.5%-10.5% growth of adjusted earnings next year.
All in all, I think the signs point toward a strong future for CURO, and I likely will add some January 1 calls to the shares I already own.
Alaska Airlines looks ready to pop this weekAlaska is rated the second-best Airline, according to the Wall Street Journal. It is extremely undervalued, with a PEG ratio of about 0.5. News has been extremely positive for Alaska lately. In terms of technicals, Alaska looks to be right above a volume support and ready to bounce. Another way to play Alaska earnings is to diversify risk by buying the JETS ETF.
Even if it misses its earnings target this week-- and it has a history of beating rather than missing estimates-- it might get a bump from raising its dividend. Alaska was one of five companies named in a Barrons article today titled "Comcast, Valero, and 3 Other Companies Expected to Increase Their Dividends Next Week."
Options buyers have neglected Alaska, with most of the open options being puts, but that just means that the bullish fundamentals aren't priced in yet. I will go long on Alaska Monday morning.
