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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/09/15The first part of the week was marked correction of recent declines that took place last week. On Tuesday, there was a failed attack on the resistance level of 1.1368. Demand reached only to the level of 1.1333 and then the supply has led to declines. The weakness in demand we have seen also during Wednesday's session, when the EUR / USD retreated despite weaker economic data from the US (non-farm employment change in the ADP 190K, with market consensus at 201K). On the demand side weakness may be affected by several factors. First of all, remember that on Thursday Mario Draghi will take part in a press conference after the ECB meeting, which will discuss the current economic situation and present a macroeconomic projections. It is worth mentioning that the recent problems of the Chinese economy adversely impact the entire EU economy. President of the ECB will signal whether any additional action (to increase the current QE), if a stronger slowdown in China? To summarize the above sentence, it is worth remembering that a weak recovery in the EU is far from perfect, the strong slump in China could squash them. Another reason for limiting the growth expectations of investors who are counting on heavily hawks records at the next Fed meeting, which will take place on 17 September. In this case, we can assume that a rate hike should occur within the next 6 months. On Thursday, in addition to an ECB President Mario Draghi, we will see a variety of data from Europe and the US. The outlook for EUR / USD: On Thursday, we should see the clearance of lateral trend, what is discussed currency pair. Pro downward signal may be weak data from Europe and a press conference by Mario Draghi. If you also get better data from the US, the supply should not have a problem with breaking the next support levels at levels 1.1179 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement increases of 1,1016-1,1712) and 1.1155 (minimum of 28 August). Subsequently, the next props should be 1,1113-28 area (peaks in late July). In the long-term, natural target remains 1.1016 level. In an alternative version, the currency pair will be supported by the data and the comments of the ECB President will support common currency, which will lead to strong growth. In this case, you must reckon with increases in the vicinity of the last peak at 1.1333 and 1.1368. Previously, however, demand will also have to deal with resistance at 1,1277-86. In my opinion, a variant with a predominance of decline appears to be a variant more likely.
by RobertPapon
3
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD pair on 08.04.15Summary Monday: The dollar gained slightly today despite better data from Germany and the Euro zone. Data from the US were much worse than expected but did not harm the dollar. Finally, none of the parties have failed to lead to a decision, no key levels have not been punctured. Minimum today recorded at the 1.0940 level which is above the major support at 1.0916. Economic Calendar for Tuesday: 9:00 EUR Performance unemployment rate in Spain 16:00 USD factories Orders (m / m) (Jun) Forecast for Tuesday: The situation remains unchanged. The market at the moment is suspended between the support at 1.0916 (major support 1,0808-31), and resistance at 1,1113-29. Investors tomorrow do not have too much data and in turn, should not favor any side. It seems that the market will await Wednesday's data, which can outline the direction for the currency pair discussed. Therefore, we have to wait to overcome, one of the levels. If it comes to overcome the resistance level at 1,1113-29 will try to bring the market to test the level of 1.1218. Otherwise, overcome support at 1.0916 will lead to a decline in support for 1,0808-31 area.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (03.08-07.08)Summary of last week: Neither side could not take the initiative, which resulted in minimal appreciation of the euro against the dollar. The opening took place at the level of 1.0971, and closing the week slightly higher as at the level of 1.0988. On the one hand, we had information that supported the dollar (the basic contract of fixed assets and records of the FOMC, which suggested that the US economy is strong and ready for a possible interest rate hike in 2015. Partially dollar supported the statements by members of the IMF, who suggested that the International Fund Currency can not take part in the next tranche of aid for Greece). On the other hand, we know better than expected Ifo index of German and Friday's surprisingly weak US data that indicate what the truth better improvement in the labor market. However, better readings from the labor market does not go hand in hand with wage pressure, which translates into poor inflation readings. The economic calendar for next week: Monday: PMI Manufacturing indicators for individual European countries and the PMI collectively for the entire Euro zone. Then we will get data from the US: ISM and PMI; Tuesday: factory orders in the US; Wednesday: PMI services for individual European countries and the PMI for the services for the entire euro zone, further data from Europe is retail sales in the euro zone and the PMI according to Markit. Then we will change the ADP non-farm employment in the US as well as ISM and PMI for services in the US; Thursday: from Germany will flow data on factory orders. USA shows the number of declared pre unemployed; Friday: industrial production in Germany and the German trade balance. Then, in the US we will average hourly wages and the change in nonfarm employment. We will also unemployment in the US. Forecast for Monday: The currency pair after Friday's growth impulse, once again returned below the downtrend line, which is presented on the chart. At the moment there will be no settlement, which could indicate further, unequivocal direction. On the one hand, we are below the important and strong resistance of 1,1113-29, on the other hand, we are more than strong support 1.0916. It is worth mentioning that a significant level of support at the moment, is the level of 1,0808-31. Taking into account indicators and technical analysis we can conclude that the market is in equilibrium and only further macroeconomic data, they can affect the direction of the currency pair discussed. Comparing the data tomorrow in one piece, keep in mind that data from the US have a stronger meaning, due to market expectations towards the Fed. Accordingly, the market will work according to the scheme better data from Europe and the US worse will support the single currency and vice versa. In the case of strong readings from Europe and weak in the US, the market will try to address the euro towards recent highs at 1,1113-29. Only you raise this level will test the level of 1.1218. In another case comes to inheritance, because better data from the US will strengthen the dollar and the increased expectations on the September interest rate hikes. Supply should not have a problem with piercing support at 1.0916 and referral toward the next support levels at levels 1,0865-80 and 1,0808-31.
by RobertPapon
Commentary for USD / CAD.The currency pair reached last week to the resistance zone located around the level of 1.3101. Recently such high price levels we saw on July 24, and in 2008-2009. Strong gains last week were caused by poor GDP reading for Canada (-0.2% at the forecast 0.1%). It is not without significance for the Canadian dollar remain further declines in oil prices, to which the Canadian economy is strongly linked. It is also worth mentioning the good readings from the US, which always increases the chance of an interest rate hike in the US. In my opinion, may be acting out recent increases. What, then, points to a correction? 1) RSI indicates the possibility of a trend reversal (negative divergence) 2) On the weekly chart appeared candle "hangman", which is a signal of a possible change in the trend; 3) strongly sold out pus, which soon should be directed to higher price levels. At the moment, oil is trading at around 47$. Demand should lead to increases in the vicinity of 51$, which automatically will be a strong support for the Canadian dollar. Investors interested in this currency pair will surely follow in the next week, data from the US and Canada. On Monday we will know the ISM and PMI in the US. Then on Wednesday we will see US data on ISM and the PMI for the services. Important data from Canada will be announced on Friday, when it will be presented the data on the PMI unattended and the unemployment rate. Note: in case of very good data from the US, can lead to further increases. In this case, the correction starts with a higher price level. Any adjustment if it will take place, will only pause in further increases.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 30.07.15Summary Wednesday: Today most of the day the market behaved fairly stable waiting for the FOMC notes. To greater volatility occurred after the announcement notes. The currency pair after breaking the resistance level at around 1.1065 eventually turned south, breaking the 1.10 level. At the moment, the minimum recorded in the second support around 1.0966. The Fed today confirmed that it is ready to raise interest rates. Reach them most likely in September. The Fed statement confirmed moderate economic growth and a steady improvement in the labor market and reducing unemployment. Inflation is still below expectations, but should in the medium term aim objective of 2%. Economic calendar for Thursday: 9:00 EUR in Spain CPI (y / y) (Jul) 9:00 EUR Spain's GDP (q / q) (Q2) 9:00 EUR HICP in Spain (y / y) (Jul) 9:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jul) 9:55 EUR German unemployment rate (Jul) 10:00 EUR ECB's Economic Bulletin 14:00 EUR German CPI (m / m) (Jul) 14:30 USD GDP (q / q) (Q2) 14:30 USD GDP deflator (q / q) 14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed Tomorrow we have a very important US data namely the GDP for the second quarter. Investors certainly will expect better readings which should reinforce expectations for a quick increase in interest rates in September. Also noteworthy data on German unemployment change which will give the answer in what condition is the German economy, given the recent turmoil with Greece. Forecast for Thursday: Yesterday the market back below the downtrend and today repelled from the resistance level at 1.1065 and there was a further decline. Support for the supply of the FOMC are records that suggest possible rate hike in September. The preferred option tomorrow, it will be a variant with a predominance of declines. Market after the defeat of support at 1,0966-69 (50% fibo level drops 1,1218-1,0808), should direct towards the next support level of 1.0916 that is. Lots of tomorrow will depend on macroeconomic data from the US. Every good data will support the dollar and confirm the thesis of the rise in interest rates. Otherwise, if we know the good data from Germany and the US worse possible will increase the area of 1.1065 and 1.1129 levels. Note: The market certainly will assume the September term and this should support the dollar in a wider horizon. It is a possible strengthening of the dollar in August as an attempt to discounting and overtaking facts.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 07.29.15Summary Tuesday: Strengthening of the dollar today was due to profit-taking after reaching yesterday's highs at 1.1129. Additional support for supply was dodarcie to the trend line drawn on the tops of 29 June and 10 July. Today also begins a two-day Fed meeting at which decisions may be adopted about interest rate hikes. Market expectations assume increases in the September deadline. Minimum recorded at the level of 1.1021. Economic calendar for Wednesday: 8:00 EUR GfK consumer climate in Germany (Aug) 16:00 USD Sale of real estate in progress (m / m) (Jun) 20:00 USD FOMC Statement Tomorrow, the calendar does not have too much data but the most important figure of the day will be the FOMC meeting records that may point the way for the dollar in the coming months. Members of the Fed suggested several times recently that there is a chance to raise interest rates (0.35%?). Mystery remains a term in September. If the deadline will be pushed during the euro will gain. To sum up this year's macroeconomic data from the US, we can conclude that the US economy is worse moments behind him and after a weak first quarter, other data were in line or better than expected. It is worth noting that the project assumed the Fed macroeconomic developments. In addition, it is worth recalling recent statements by Janet Yellen, who confirmed in their speeches that the US economy is ready for the next step which is the rise in interest rates. The question at the moment is whether the increase will take place in September or until late autumn? The forecast for Wednesday: On the currency pair EUR / USD has today been reversed and return below the downtrend line. Supply led to a break of support at 1.1065 and then remained below this level. It looks like that: yesterday's breakout was false and a variant of the ongoing correction is still valid. However, tomorrow we will know the Fed's economic projections, which significantly affect the currency pair. Taking this into account, do not suggest to tomorrow only technical analysis. Accordingly, analysis of tomorrow can be considered in two aspects: The first option involves rapid increase in interest rates (September?). Such information greatly strengthen the dollar and in a sense is consistent with the assumptions of investors. In this case, no problem will break the supply of further support to 1.1029 / 1.0969 / 1.0916 / 1,0865-80. An increase in interest rates will affect the strengthening of the dollar in the broad market and target for EUR / USD will be this year's lows 1.0456. Earlier, the market will have to deal with a zone of support levels at 1,0808-31. The second variant: the Fed gave at the time of interest rate hikes, which automatically supports the common currency. Here, demand should have no problems with yesterday's attack on the 1.1129 peak and will attempt to go higher. After breaking the resistance level will further aim of 1.1218. In this case, it seems quite real strengthening of the euro, even to the level of 1.1456 or higher over the next session or weeks. Tomorrow will flow as data from Germany and the USA but they will have an indirect impact on exchange rate fluctuations, as the market waited records will be the FOMC. NOTE: Tomorrow's FOMC notes may determine the future direction for the currency pair in a broader horizon.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD pair on 27.07.15Summary Monday: Today, we saw strong growth in around 1.1129. In the first part of the demand a good data from Germany. The Ifo business sentiment index was better than expected, which was a surprise given the recent turmoil with Greece. Then we got to know better US data that has been ignored by the market. Euro at the end of the day it was still strong and hovering around 1.11. The strength of the common currency today once again wonders, especially since today has been to overcome the 1.1065 level demand also led to test the level of 1.1121 which is the 76.4% fibo declines 1,1218-1,0808). Why the euro is strong at the beginning of the week? On Wednesday we will know the records of the FOMC meeting, which will show how much the Fed is determined to lead to increases in interest rates in September. The market is likely implies a possible increase but at a later date, leading to a sell-off of the dollar. Please note that any information rejecting rate hikes in September will support the euro. Economic calendar for Tuesday: 15:45 USD PMI index for services (Jul) 16:00 USD Consumer confidence by the Conference Board (Jul) Forecast for Tuesday: The situation with the correction strongly became complicated, because on the one hand stepped over the barrier 1.1065 (61.8% fibo recent declines 1,1218-1,0808), on the other hand, it has been to break the downtrend line (red line on the graph) . At the moment the currency pair reached a strong resistance and is fairly heavily subscribed, which may result in the return movement in around 1.1065 (this level is at the moment quite important) If today's output over the trend line we have seen as a wrong move, it's on tomorrow we should go back to around 1.1050 and 1.0969. In this case, a variant of correction is still valid. Good data should support the dollar but on Thursday, the market ignores the information from the US, which can be seen after the power supply whose actions are chaotic. Otherwise, technical analysis assumes a slight return movement in the vicinity of 1.1065 and another strong wave of rising in the vicinity of the summit on 7 July. This will mean that the correction has been completed and the currency pair EUR / USD will test the level of 1.1218.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (27.07-31.07.)Summary of last week: The euro strengthened against the dollar which may slightly surprising, given the recent readings from Europe and the USA. It is worth mentioning that the readings from Europe were worse or mixed, while data from the US good and agree with the notion that the US economy is doing well. The opening took place at the level of 1.0831 and at the end of the week we watched the closing at 1.0984. Maximum recorded around 1.1020 (50% fibo of 1.1218 drops - 1.0808). Why, then, the market does not favor the dollar? Analyzing the dollar index, we can see that the market after reaching the resistance zone at 98,00-98,30 led to a small correction. Assuming that in the near future we will once more good data from the US, the Fed certainly will be talking more boldly to raise interest rates in the US later this year. In addition, it should be noted that the European economy is far from reflecting a further support for Greece, may not be sufficient without cancellation of part of the debt. This mix of information will support the dollar. Economic calendar for next week: Monday: Ifo business sentiment index in Germany, then the United States will be presented to the underlying contract assets; Tuesday: PMI services and the consumer confidence index of the Conference Board in the US; Wednesday: GfK consumer climate in Germany, the sale of real estate in progress, the FOMC statement; Thursday: change of unemployment in Germany, the economic bulletin the ECB, GDP in the US; Friday: CPI and unemployment rate in the Euro zone, the Chicago PMI index and the index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan; Forecast for Monday: At the moment the currency pair is in the process of adjustment falls in the level of 1,1218-1,0808. Last week there was a test level of 1.1013, which coincides with the level of 50% fibo recent declines. Taking into account a purely technical analysis, we can assume that there is a chance to attack and test the level of 1,1061-65 (61.8% fibo recent declines 1,1218-1,0808). In my opinion, the level of 1.1065 seems to aim maximum, if growth is to be only a correction. At this altitude the game should turn to the supply side, and we should return to the strengthening of the dollar in a wider horizon. Is variant of test 1.1065 level is the preferred option? In my opinion, possible in the case of receipt of tomorrow good data from Germany and worse readings from the US. Otherwise, you come to the end of the correction at the level of 1.1013 in this case will witness the strengthening of the dollar, which will aim to recent lows. Supply in this case should overcome support at 1.0969 and 1.0916. In my opinion, taking into account the economic situation in Europe, the problems in Greece as well as the good condition of the US economy and worse, recent readings from China, you should expect flight of investors towards the dollar.
by RobertPapon
3
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD pair on 07.23.15Summary Wednesday: Today's session is slightly decreasing, despite better data from the US. The market today has not used the chance to lead to stronger price reductions on the EUR / USD pair. In my opinion this is only a pause, and if tomorrow's US data, confirm the improved condition of the US economy is certainly see lower price levels. Today, the minimum recorded at 1.0870 and at the moment we are around the level of 1.0909. Economic calendar for Thursday: Tomorrow's calendar is empty but it will be worth to pay attention to US data (ascendant declared to the unemployed). Better-than-expected reading will reinforce expectations of an interest rate hike. Forecast for Thursday: The technical situation at the moment appears to be a stalemate. The currency pair is just below resistance at 1.0916, which in my opinion loses its value. Therefore, you should wait for the right moment to take a position. For me, this signal will overcome the resistance zone at 1,0969-10 (poor data from the US?) Or to overcome support at 1.0870 (better data from the US), which may lead to a re-test recent low of 1,0808- 31. In the case of insurmountable level of 1.0969 will direct demand towards 1,10-1,1013 (50% fibo recent declines). If, and this resistance is defeated, then the demand will have a chance to attack and test the level of 1,1061-65, (61.8% fibo recent declines). In my opinion, the level of 1.1065 seems to aim maximum, if growth is to be only a correction. Note: For test support at 1,0808-31 know the answer about the future and direction of the currency pair. Any defeat of support will have serious consequences in a wider horizon, as the market will open the way for this year's lows at 1.0456. The downward variant appears to be a variant more likely in a broader horizon, due to the increasing expectations for interest rate hikes
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (13.07-17.07.)Summary of the week: The beginning of the week began with the strong appreciation of the dollar, but the euro during the week worked out losses and ended the week up by 1.1% against the dollar. Quite unexpectedly after Sunday's referendum, when Greeks voted to NO, the Greek Government led by Aleksi Tsipras, issued on Wednesday evening a new project of reform and savings. The market took this information with satisfaction that automatically led to the strengthening of the euro. It is also worth noting Wednesday's FOMC meeting notes from which were balanced. Fed assumes the possibility of interest rate hikes later this year, but must be met appropriate assumptions: an improvement in the labor market and solid and good readings from the US economy. Market is read as an offset increases over time, which further supported the European currency. The economic calendar for next week: In the coming week will dominate all the time, the situation around Greece and the mood around the new aid plan for Greece. Sentences are divided politicians Eurogroup and hard at the moment to assess whether a possible rescue plan will cure the problems of the Greek. If you are unsure dollar may gain. Monday : lack of relevant data, it is planned Eurogroup meeting; Tuesday : ZEW economic mood in Germany and US retail sales and import price index and US export Wednesday: PPI from the US and the statement of the President of the Fed, Janet Yellen, also will be announced production rate for NY and beige book; Thursday: get readings on the CPI in the Eurozone, then the ECB will decide on interest rates. It is noteworthy that the President of the ECB press conference. Mario Draghi will refer to the recent situation in Greece. On the other side of the ocean will be announced industrial indicator of Philadelphia; Friday: The most important data will flow from the US: building permit, the base CPI and Michigan consumer sentiment index. Forecast for Monday: Last week there was to break up with the downward channel in the vicinity of 1.1040. Support for the growth was the improvement in sentiment around Greece. The currency pair reached a strong resistance level at 1,1210-1,1230 then came to realize profits. Assuming that soon we will see the final and positive resolution of the case Greek, there is a fairly high probability of further gains in the pair EUR / USD. Technical analysis allows for correction around 1.1080 and then we should see an attack on the 1.1210 level. If it comes to overcome this level will open the way for further increases. In this case, the goal will be the last maxima at 1.1456. Variant growth appears to be a variant, which has a greater chance of success. After reaching there should be a decline. In an alternative version comes to inheritance after piercing the 1.1080 level which could trigger a resumption of the recent low of 1,0916-54. Keep in mind that at the moment on a pair EUR / USD is very high variability caused by mixed information on Greece and this should be taken into account in its strategy.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 08.07.15Summary Tuesday: According to the forecast, today there was a decline on the EUR / USD pair. At the moment not established anything new on aid or bankruptcy of Greece. The whole situation introduces nervousness on the markets thus escape towards safe currencies such as the US dollar. Today there was a break important support at 1.10 and then the market had settled zone support levels at 1,0954-70. Minimum recorded much lower at 1.0916 which confirms the weakness of the single currency. A few words about Greece: At today's meeting of the Eurogroup Greeks did not put forward any new proposals. Germany does not see opportunities for further dialogue, without decisive changes in the new program improvement. The situation is difficult and can lead to Greece's exit from the Euro zone. In the event of submission of the EU towards Greece next in line for the money of the European Union will be Spain and Portugal. The economic calendar for Wednesday: 20:00 minutes of the FOMC meeting; Tomorrow's calendar is empty but the market certainly will keep track of the records of the FOMC meeting. At the moment, we know that the data from the US, which we received recently were good but not sensational. This could cool the enthusiasm of members Fed to raise interest rates in the autumn in the US. At the moment, the market expects a rate hike at the end of the year or the beginning of 2016 years. If we receive information about the possibility of introducing higher rates earlier this dollar strengthened. The forecast for Wednesday: Today, it dominated the world market supply, which broke the important support at 1.10 and then the market had settled zone support levels at 1,0954-70. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis supports the continued declines. In my opinion, the road was opened towards the levels of 1 June and 27 May. The supply should maintain the strength and lead to declines in the direction of today's low of 1.0916. The next targets will be the levels 1,0880-90 and 1.0820. (An important resistance is the level of 1,0954-70 and 1.10. (In this area should outweigh the supply side, a large part of the players will certainly be here to open short positions)). The downward variant is in my opinion the preferred option but be careful because the rumors or the fixing of aid for Greece may be associated with strong movements. Already, at present volatility is at 90% and this should be taken into account in its strategy. Note: Please note that in case of positive news on Greece comes to strong increases but it is unlikely at the moment. In this case, the targets should be the level of 1.1120 and a resistance zone 1,12-1,1240 If the analysis you liked please click thank you.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 07.07.15Summary Monday: The Sunday session has opened up a gap trend (1.0995) as a consequence of information that sprang from Greece. Minimum seen at 1.0970, and like a week earlier demand led to the closure gap. Maximum dropped out at the level of 1.1096. Currently, the currency pair is trading at 1.1050 indicates weakness in demand. A few words about Greece and the referendum The greater part of the Greeks (61.31%) voted for NO, which is tantamount to a rejection of its self-imposed reforms of the European Union. The result is a surprise for the markets but above all a great shock for the Germans, who for the last few years quite firmly dictate their conditions to the Greeks. "Domino" is package elaboration and nobody currently knows what will be the effects of decisions Greeks. At the beginning resigned Greek Finance Minister - Janis Warufakis. Negotiations will have to start from scratch and now we know that 85% of Germans are opposed to aid. The results of the referendum is support for the current work of the Greek government but as you know, none of the parties will not forgive. The consequence of such actions could be a Greek exit from the euro zone or even leave the European Union. Economic Calendar for Tuesday: 8:00 EUR German Industrial Production 12:00 EUR Euro Group meeting 14:30 USD Trade Balance 18:00 EUR Euro zone leaders meeting Forecast for Tuesday: The currency pair is still under pressure and tomorrow's market can ignore the readings. Tomorrow, another meeting of the Eurogroup on Greece and the attempt to find a compromise between Greece and the EU. Technically looking at the situation in the EUR / USD pair, we can conclude that the euro is weak and the strong resistance level is 1,11-1,1120. It was not until his defeat may lead to some significant increases in the levels of around 1.12 and 1.1240. Assuming that the Greek issue is not resolved, the more likely it seems the next move downwards. In this case, there should be a break through support at 1.10. Then the next goal will be to overcome aids zone between 1,0954-1,097. If the last minimums are defeated it will open the way to further declines in around 1.0820. The downward variant seems more likely but keep in mind that all rumors about Greece may introduce confusion in the market. On the currency pair there is a large variation at the level of 77%, therefore, be careful and take this into account in its strategy.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (06.07-10.07.)Summary of last week: The currency pair opened one of the largest gaps downward in recent years. This was the result of uncertainty related to Greece. Markets remained constantly on the alert which led to strong fluctuations and even incomprehensible movements. After opening the trend we saw the bottom of the 1.0954 level and then, without major problems has led to the demand side closing the gap and establish a high of 1.1279. At the end of the week the euro gained slightly against the dollar by 0.24%. It is worth noting, however, that despite the many negative reports that appeared last week we saw the strong depreciation of the EUR / USD, which may confirm that the market still believes in the positive outcome of the Greek case. A few words about Greece: In the last week of negotiations on the EU - Greece has been interrupted as a result of disagreement. The situation looks much complicated, because both sides do not want to give way. Greece has not repaid on June 30 creditors more than 1.6 billion euros. At the moment, we are waiting for the results of the referendum, which will indicate the Greek journey. If the Greeks will talk in a referendum in favor of continuing austerity, the European Union will help Greece and allocate billions more in aid to the country. If the Greeks say NO, in this case may lead to a crisis on the Brussels - Athens. It is difficult to predict what will be the consequence but one possibility is assumed to return to its own currency by Greece. Whatever they see the election results Greeks are in a very difficult position. The latest survey results: Poll GPO Mega TV - Yes: 44.1% vs. NO: 43.7% Bloomberg / University of Macedonia - Yes: 43% vs. NO: 42.5% Ethnos / ALCO - Yes: 44.8% vs. NO: 43.4% As you can see, each survey is close to the margin of error. Economic calendar next week. The coming week is full of many important events, but they may remain in the shadows of the situation in Greece. Monday: The contract factories in Germany and the PMI and the ISM index in the US; Tuesday: Industrial production in Germany and the US trade balance; Wednesday: Minutes of FOMC meeting; Thursday: German trade balance and declared to the ascendant unemployed in the US; Friday: no important data Forecast for Monday: Because of the referendum in Greece, do not take into account a purely technical analysis. It is worthwhile to consider what the consequences might bring any results. The market assumes positive outcome of the referendum, which will start next tranche of aid to Greece. In this connection, it should gain the euro. Very likely it is that we see today at the opening of the next gap. If the Greeks say yes in this case we can see the euphoria and gains in the EUR / USD pair. The objectives should be 1,1150-70 zone and 1.12 and 1.1240. It was quite possible that as a result of market euphoria will seek to recent highs at 1.1279 and in case of their breakthrough opens the way to levels around 1.1456. If the Greeks say no, then we should see the euro Sale, as in this case, the Greek government will get strong support and emphatically reject any imposed reform. Such a situation will introduce nervousness in the markets and discussed the course of steam should act in the first place towards 1.0954 or 1.10 and lows from last week. One should expect a strong sell-off and a deterioration lows as well as the large gap downward. At the moment it is hard to determine how the currency pair will behave tomorrow, and therefore I would suggest to stay out of the market until clarification of the situation. If my analysis interested in, please click thank you
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (29.06-03.07.)Summary of the week: In the last week the single currency was weaker against the dollar by 1.35%. To a large extent this is due to the uncertainty around Greece and the future of the whole euro area. The dollar also was supported by good data from the US, which reassures the market in the belief that the first increases in interest rates will fall. In the coming week, investors will focus their attention on Greece, which must not only find a compromise in the negotiations but also to repay 1.6 billion to its creditors until 30 June. At the moment the situation is not optimistic, because on Saturday the negotiations were broken off, and the Prime Minister of Greece proposed a referendum on July 5, in which Greek citizens have to make a decision on acceptance or rejection of solutions imposed by the European Union. In case of a negative outcome to be expected from the bankruptcy of Greece, and in this case you can do without panic in the markets. Do not forget to macroeconomic data, which will be announced next week. It should be noted: On Monday we will know the data on inflation in Germany and Spain. From the United States we will get data on real estate sales; On Tuesday we will know fairly important data on unemployment change in Germany and the CPI for the Euro zone. At the end of the day we will know the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board On Wednesday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries, while the US will flow data on non-farm employment change in the ADP and ISM index for the industry. On Thursday it will be published minutes of the meeting of the ECB and important US data on unemployment and changes in nonfarm employment. On Friday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries as well as data on sales in the Euro zone. The forecast for Monday. The currency pair is still under pressure and the market will be waited for the end of the talks between Greece and the EU. At the moment, we can expect nervousness, which will surely be conducive to the dollar. The most important economic data tomorrow will flow from the US. Looking purely technically on a currency pair, we can say that in the last week there was a clearance of consolidation and break down the level of 1.1170. Accordingly, the currency pair after breaking down should turn around in 1,1170-75 and then supply should take the initiative and lead once again to test recent support levels at 1,1129-34 levels. Overcoming aids zone will pave the way for lower price levels. The first objective should be the next support level of 1.1080 or lows of June 5-7. In an alternative version (poor US data and positive news on Greece) should lead once again to test levels of 1,12-1,1240. The downward variant seems to be the preferred option but should be vigilant, because any rumors on Greece could lead to severe mood swings, which subsequently translate into a currency pair. Uptade: The currency pair traded before the opening of the market is already after 1.10. The Sunday session opens downward gap!
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 06.25.15Summary Wednesday: According to yesterday's analysis, today we can include as a correction of yesterday's strong declines. According to the forecast I assumed increases in the vicinity of 1.12 and 1.1240. The maximum we could see at the level of 1.1236 and then saw profit-taking, which caused declines in around 1.1170. It is worth mentioning that the weaker economic data from Germany and the details of the US, which were in line with market consensus. At the moment lasts a meeting of the Eurogroup, which are discussed possible solutions for Greece. Calendar for Thursday: 8:00 EUR GfK consumer climate in Germany 14:30 USD Core consumer expenditures price index (PCE) 14:30 USD Core consumer spending price index (core PCE) 14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed 14:30 USD Personal Spending 15:45 USD PMI index for services Calendar is not too rich in macro data and it is worth noting that tomorrow's data is not crucial for the EUR / USD pair. Tomorrow the market will pay attention to data on unemployment and PMI. Forecast for Thursday: Currently we are in the correction of Tuesday's inheritance and strong resistance is the 1.1240 level. I think that there should be no overcoming it, unless late in the evening we will know the new facts on the agreement between Greece and the EU. Personally, I think that none of the parties will not forgive and agreement is not reached. In this case, bankruptcy hanging over the market of Greece and fairly large uncertainty about the further situation in the Euro zone. Looking from a purely technical perspective, we can reach conclusions that after today's rally may lead to another wave of strengthening of the dollar. In this case, the supply should head towards levels of 1.1170 and then towards yesterday's low of 1.1134. The ultimate goal should be the support level of 1.1080. (this version would be compatible with the assumption that there was a clearance with a wedge of growth and then after a little adjustment, the supply leads to further declines) In an alternative version will lead to increases in demand over 1.1240 to should lead to another test of 1.1280 and the recent highs. Note: in case of positive news from the meeting of the Eurogroup will gain euros.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 05.06.15Summary Thursday: According to yesterday predicted, the EUR / USD corrected yesterday's first increase in the support area 1.1230 and then demand has led to successive increases and defeated yesterday's high of 1.1286. This led to increases in the vicinity of the resistance zone 1,1350-90. Currently, the realization of profit, which got support in the form of better US data. The economic calendar for Friday: 8:00 EUR Order factories in Germany 11:00 EUR GDP (YoY) Q1 11:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) Q1 14:30 USD Average Hourly wages 14:30 USD Change in employment in non-agricultural sectors 14:30 USD Participation in the labor market 14:30 USD Private sector employment excluding agriculture 14:30 USD Unemployment rate 18:30 USD speaks FOMC member Dudley Tomorrow addition to the data from Europe also very important to know the data on the US labor market. It is the most important figure of the day, which will seriously affect the exchange rate of a currency pair discussed. Good data will be confirmation rebound in the US economy, despite the worse ISM reading this week. If the data turn out to be worse market will not have illusions that the Fed will try to postpone raising interest rates. Forecast for Friday: From a technical point of view, the currency pair is heavily subscribed, which should lead to a correction in the near future. However, keep in mind that the correction signal may be better readings from the US economy tomorrow. Otherwise, data worse than expected, will result in increases in the vicinity of today's peaks or even exceeding them. If my assumptions are correct then you should tomorrow be considered as follows: 1) If US data turn out to be worse this demand should lead to growth in the 1.1315 area and then head for the resistance zone, we tested today (Thursday) or 1,1350-1,1381. The natural purpose of this case, the above should be peaks of May in the area of 1.1456. If the US data will prove to be considerably weak, this may affect the EUR / USD rate in the medium term. 2) If the US data will be good or very good it will terminate the current increases and direct course to the south. Declines in this case should test the recent support level of 1.1225 that is. After piercing the support of supply should head towards 1.1189 and 1.11. This may mean that once again we will head towards the level of 1,0880-1,09. Note: Do not forget about tomorrow's data from Europe and the ongoing negotiations between Greece and the EU. Tomorrow's data are crucial for the EUR / USD market, which may lead to changes in expectations about interest rate hikes in the US. In addition, the market can be traced to the weaker readings in the future which negatively affect the readings of GDP in the US.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 06.04.15A brief summary of Wednesday: Today pierced 1.1225 level and this means that the first variant was realized yesterday's analysis. In this case, we will move towards recent highs at 1.1456. The fuel for growth was weaker ISM index reading for the services. Data from Europe have proved to be better, as confirmed also by Mario Draghi at a press conference, stating that the situation in Europe is going in the right direction. The ECB president also did not hide his satisfaction with the QE program, which in his view positively supports the economies of Europe. Accordingly, the demand had problems with piercing resistance level at 1.1225 and set a peak of 1.1286. Economic Calendar for Thursday: 14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed 14:30 USD Non-agricultural Productivity 14:30 USD Unit labor costs 18:00 USD speaks FOMC member, Tarullo The market certainly will follow US data tomorrow, but they should not have a significant impact on movements in the EUR / USD pair. Note, however, that the market will read them according to the principle: better data support the dollar, worse support the euro. Forecast for Thursday: After piercing the 1.1225 level opened the way towards 1.1456. However, at the moment the currency pair is heavily subscribed, which may lead to a temporary correction. The supply should push the quotation EUR / USD towards support at 1.1225 and 1.1189 (peak on Tuesday). Then demand should attempt to attack the resistance at 1.1315 (76.8% fibo of 1.1456 decline to 1.0818). The next resistances are peak in May, which 1,1350-90 levels. The aim in this case will be around 1.1456 level. In an alternative version may be exacerbated correction below 1.1189 in the vicinity of 1,11-1,1130 At present embodiment growth seems to be the preferred option. Note: At the moment the market, based on the lives of optimism and assumes that Greece speaks to the creditors. You should be vigilant, because at the moment we know that the current aid plan may be jedunie temporary and will pay off Greece's debts by the end of June. Any negative news on Greece to strengthen the dollar. I encourage everyone to comment and wish you many successful investments.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 03.06.15A brief summary of Tuesday: Today we recorded very strong growth that exceeded their most optimistic strength. The demand received support in the form of better CPI reading from the Euro zone. However, the biggest driving force for growth were informed of the imminent agreement with Greece's creditors. Demand without any problems broke resistance and led the course in around 1.1189, where it recorded a maximum. Today's killing can be treated as part of the abolition of inheritance from 1.1456. The economic calendar for Wednesday: 9:15 EUR PMI index for services in Spain 9:45 EUR PMI index for services in Italy 9:50 EUR PMI for services in France 9:55 EUR PMI index for services in Germany 10:00 EUR Aggregate index by Markit PMI 10:00 EUR PMI for services 11:00 EUR Retail 11:00 EUR Unemployment rate 13:45 EUR decision on interest rates 14:15 USD ADP Employment Change in non-agricultural 14:30 USD Trade Balance 14:30 EUR ECB Press Conference 15:45 USD Aggregate according to Markit PMI 15:45 USD PMI index for services 16:00 USD ISM index for services dot. Employment 16:00 USD ISM index for services 16:30 USD Crude Oil Stockpiles 20:00 USD Beige Book Tomorrow we have a number of important data from Europe and the US, therefore, it can lead to very strong movements on currency pair discussed. The most important figure of the day will obviously be a press conference by Mario Draghi, after the announcement of the decision on. Interest rates. Not without significance are data from the US, which should give an answer in what condition is the US economy. The forecast for Wednesday: At the moment the currency pair is just below an important resistance level at 1.1225. Due to the tight complicated situation tomorrow and a large amount of data from Europe and the US analysis should be considered as follows: Firstly, we can count the puncture level of 1.1225. In the event that we get better data from Europe and the US, of course, worse. Additional support may be Mario Draghi to confirm that QE in Europe does not need to be increased, because the program works perfectly and macroeconomic projections for Europe are better. If this thesis is correct is to overcome the 1.1225 level will open the way towards peaks in mid-May (1.1456). Secondly, one should expect declines when data from Europe will prove to be worse, while the US data definitely better than expected. (Market once again increase expectations on interest rates). If Mario Draghi will surprise negatively, it should accelerate declines. In this case, resistance at 1.1225 should hold out and demand should take the lead in pushing the exchange rate towards 1.1060 or lower. Thirdly, a number of important data could be mixed and this in turn will lead to high volatility in the market. At the moment, volatility in the EUR / USD pair is 65%. Note: Due to the potential high volatility tomorrow, you'd better stay away from the market and wait for a better time for the opening position. It should also be remembered that in addition to macroeconomic data, we can obtain the information or rumors about Greece. I encourage everyone to comment and wish you many successful investments.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 06.02.15A brief summary of Monday: Today there has been a decline, without the expected correction in the vicinity of 1.1040. This means that the alternative embodiment, which assumed no test zone decreases resistance was today realized. To a large extent the impact of the weakness of the euro have today, weak data from Germany and a good reading of ISM for industry in the US, which was a key figure of the day. Euro remains weak, because everyone a better reading of the USA brings us closer to a rate hike in December. In addition, the uncertain situation of Greece, will escape the dollar. Minimum recorded at the level of 1.0886. Economic Calendar for Tuesday: 9:00 EUR change in the unemployment rate in Spain 9:55 EUR German unemployment change 9:55 EUR German unemployment rate 11:00 EUR Core CPI 11:00 EUR CPI 16:00 USD Order factories Tomorrow the market will certainly keep track of the data that will flow from Europe in particular, the CPI for the Eurozone (forecast assumes a rebound to 0.2%). Forecast for Tuesday: Euro still remains weak, not a situation in negotiations between Greece and the EU leads to a high degree of uncertainty. In this case, you should expect that the market will promote the US dollar as a haven. Very good ISM reading today awakens the appetite for interest rate hikes and lets assume that the earlier weaker readings from the USA were temporary. With this in mind it should be assumed that further declines a matter of time. At the moment, we find ourselves at the level of 1.0930. As long as we continue to be above 1,0860-80 (the level of support I marked in gray), you must reckon with the possibility of movement towards 1,0980-1,10. In this area once again to the game should enter the supply side, which pushes 1,0880-1,09 course in the area. Currently, the currency pair is very high volatility of 76%. For people who want to obtain reliable information about the input line with the trend, I suggest you wait to pierce a key level of 1,0860-80. Breaking the support should lead to a test of 1.0670 levels and 1.0520. In an alternative version the market once again will head straight south, without correction recent declines. Note: The currency pair is under pressure and any output up, they will be treated as a good opportunity to open short positions. I encourage everyone to comment and wish you many successful investments.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (01-06.06)A brief summary of May: The dollar weakened slightly last week, in large part because it was a strong sell out on a pair of EUR / USD. Macroeconomic data from the US were mixed but they were not bad, it may suggest that growth at the end of the week, they are only a short correction before further declines. It should also be noted that the euro has weakened over the entire month against the dollar by 1.89%. Strong impetus for the dollar in May, was due on the one hand by Greece, which is on the verge of bankruptcy. Negotiations on aid to Greece, actually stalled and it should be noted that Greece without the assistance of the EU does not repay in June, more than 1.6 billion euros. The second impulse, which weakens the single currency, there are expectations on interest rate hikes in the US. The market has shifted expectations for the fall in December. In a similar vein they speak as members of the Fed, who quite earnestly trying to explain that the slowdown in the first quarter is temporary and in the near future, the US economy should disperse. Next week will bring a number of important data and some of them may prove crucial. What do I mean? On Monday we will know the ISM Manufacturing index in the US that if it appears weak or average, may unsettle expectations about interest rate hikes. On Wednesday we will know the ISM index for services in the US. It is not without significance will also be readings from the labor market, which may shed light on the state of the US economy. The market certainly will also follow statements by members of the Fed. On Monday, his speech have Rosengren and Stanley Fisher. On Friday, Dudley will speak. The market certainly will also keep track of the data that will flow from Europe. On account will deserve PMIs for industry and services, particularly from Germany. Data will be informed whether euro zone's largest economy is beginning to have problems. Not without significance are data on the PMI for the entire Eurozone, and data on inflation. We will also data on retail sales in the Euro zone. The most important figure of the week remains a press conference after the ECB meeting where Mario Draghi will present the current economic situation in the euro zone and the ECB bank's forecast for the future. At the end of Friday we will know the data on industrial orders in Germany. Forecast for Monday: The currency pair after selling out quite strong and reached a low of 1.0818 currently corrects declines. At the moment, we find ourselves at the level of 1.0989. In my opinion, the growth may stop in the vicinity of strong resistance at the level of 1,1040-1060 that in March constituted a strong barrier, which demand could not cope. This level coincides with the 61.8% fibo declines from 1.1208 to 1.0818. However, before the market reaches the aforementioned resistance, should first deal with the level of 1.10. In my opinion this is the maximum range of adjustment. In a broader horizon remains the preferred option further declines. In an alternate embodiment reaches the test zone decreases without resistance. Note: The currency pair is under pressure. The most important data will flow from the US - ISM index for the industry.
by RobertPapon
NZD / USD in the medium termThe currency pair broke through the resistance level of 0.7420 and reached a strong resistance level at 0.7550, which was slightly exceeded. An attempt to break through this resistance should not go. The increases were initiated by the occurrence of Governor of the Bank of New Zealand, who hinted that the probability of interest rate hikes in June. An additional stimulus for growth, were Wednesday's US data, which proved to be weak and drifting during hike in US interest rates. Currently kiwi is pretty much sold out, which should support the supply side. It should also be noted that the pair is in a downward trend and further falls in prices of dairy products and weak economic data from New Zealand and China, should have a negative impact on the currency. (Nearby important data is already PPI May 19). The market has before him a vision of cuts in interest rates in the second half of the year (June 11 ??), which in the medium term should lead to clearer declines. The objectives of the moment should be support levels 0.7420 then 0.7319 and 0.72 which is the goal of supply.
Short
by RobertPapon