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XAU/USD – Long off Lower Channel + Fundamental Tailwind📌 Bias: Bullish (technical + macro alignment 🔹 Trade Setup Entry Zone - 3 245 – 3 255 Stop-Loss - 3 240 TP1 - 3 375 (Last Month High) TP2 - 3 475 (Upper Channel) 🧠 Technical Rationale - Price is respecting a clean ascending channel - Confluence at entry: lower trendline + last month’s low + hidden order block - Liquidity sweep expected below 3 245 before bullish continuation 🌍 Fundamental Tailwinds (July 2025) 🏦 1. US Dollar Collapse - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 10.8% YTD, its worst start since 1973 - Driven by: - Trump’s erratic tariff policies and fiscal expansion - Loss of confidence in US Treasuries as a safe haven - Moody’s downgrade of US credit rating “The dollar has transformed from a safe haven into a symbol of instability.” – ING strategist 🪙 2. Central Bank Gold Demand - Global central banks continue accumulating gold to hedge against dollar devaluation - This institutional demand underpins long-term bullish momentum 🔥 3. Geopolitical Risk Premium - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East (Iran–Israel, Gaza) and Russia–Ukraine keep gold attractive as a safe-haven asset - Even with temporary ceasefires, the risk premium remains embedded in price 📉 4. Fed Dovish Shift - Fed Governor Waller signals a possible July rate cut, citing weak labor data and easing inflation - Lower rates = weaker dollar = stronger gold 🧠 Final Thought This setup isn’t just technically sound—it’s fundamentally explosive. You’re riding a macro wave of dollar weakness, geopolitical hedging, and central bank gold demand. If price reacts cleanly at 3 250, this could be your high-conviction entry of the month.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Billionaire_bills
#AN019: Digital Currencies (CBDCs) Will Change Forex How the world of official digital currencies (CBDCs) is already impacting Forex, opening up new opportunities rarely considered elsewhere. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo. On the one hand, Shanghai is evaluating countermeasures against stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, including yuan-backed currencies, while China is moving closer to a reasonable transition to its own "soft" stablecoin, after years of restrictions on crypto trading. On the other, Pakistan is launching a pilot CBDC, aligning itself with a momentous shift: it is now shaping its own digital monetary system, with direct impacts on inflation, reserves, and currency pairs. These initiatives are not isolated. They are part of a global phenomenon: over 130 central banks are studying or testing CBDCs, with Europe, China, and the Middle East at the forefront. American hostility (e.g., the ban on digital dollars) risks pushing others to consolidate their own digital currencies as a geopolitical and financial shield. In Forex, these developments could generate repercussions even in the short term: EUR/CNY or INR exchange rate: Retail and wholesale CBDCs will facilitate direct trade, reducing dependence on the dollar, and potentially giving rise to new flows in Asian crosses. Reduced cross-border costs and times: Systems like mBridge (China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE, Saudi Arabia) will allow instant transactions and cross-border digital currencies, breaking down SWIFT's dominance and encouraging lower demand for USD payments. New interest rate paradigm: CBDCs may include fixed interest rates, creating competitive pressure on swaps and futures, and forcing traditional central banks to clarify their strategies. Digital Safe Havens: If EUR or CNY become globally interoperable, new forms of safe haven currencies could emerge, impacting crosses such as EUR/USD, USD/CNY, and INR/USD. Actional conclusion for Forex traders: We will soon enter uncharted territory: it will not just be a matter of evaluating central banks and SMEs, but also of understanding if and when official digital payment systems will have a real impact on currency routes. For those who want to anticipate flows: Monitor CBDC pilots in Asia and the Middle East. Keep an eye on retail adoption in the BRICS countries: in the coming quarters, we could see direct flows from USD to digital CNY, INR, and AED. Evaluate potential longs on digital-friendly crosses (e.g., USD/INR digital) and shorts on USD linked to interest in stablecoins. Forex is entering its new digital era: the question is only one: are you ready to navigate it?
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
#AN018: Summer shock, tariffs, Fed delays, and the dollar's shif In recent days, the forex world has experienced a sequence of key events that could redefine the global currency landscape in the coming months. Risk to the dollar has become structural, the threat of tariffs is multiplying again, and the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy creates an extremely risky mix for exchange rates. Let's start with the Fed minutes: Jerome Powell attributed tariff risk to the main reason for postponing possible rate cuts. Market expectations are realigning toward a longer rate cycle, fueling a climate of global uncertainty. At the same time, Goldman Sachs warns that the dollar is increasingly moving as a "risky" currency, correlated with equity markets—an emerging market rather than a safe haven. On the geopolitical front, President Trump has relaunched the trade war: announcements of tariffs of up to 35% on Canada, up to 20% on Europe, and 50% on copper from Brazil have caused futures volatility to soar and sent the dollar into a short-term rally. But Deutsche Bank is sounding the alarm: the summer period of low liquidity and rising trade tensions represents a potential trigger for prolonged currency turbulence. The Financial Times envisions a scenario in which the dollar loses ground as the dominant currency, ushering in a multipolar currency world in which the euro, renminbi, gold, and even cryptocurrencies could gain ground. The impact on Forex: USD: The narrative is changing: no longer a net safe haven, but an asset correlated with political and risk cycles. The weakness of the DXY index in the first half of 2025 (-10%) reflects this transition. EUR/USD: Potentially favored if the dollar continues its consolidation. However, new tariffs and US-EU uncertainty could provide temporary support for the greenback. USD/JPY and USD/CHF: These crosses will be subject to greater volatility, with the next catalyst being the Fed minutes and the timing of tariffs. Safe-haven currencies strengthen during periods of uncertainty. CAD, AUD, NZD: penalized by tariffs on Canada and Brazil and a weak dollar. OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions could boost commodities, but data confirmation is needed. Commodity cross-correlation: USD/CAD could rebound if oil loses momentum, while AUD/JPY is sensitive to both the RBA and increased global risk. Conclusion: The current currency environment appears unstable and sensitive to political and trade developments. Summer volatility could persist, and those who can read the macro and institutional signals (Fed, tariffs, geopolitics) will have the opportunity to enter accurately. Until a stable direction emerges, EUR/USD looks like the most interesting cross to capture a potential structural correction in the dollar.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
#AN017: Dirty Levels in Forex: How Banks Think In the world of Forex, many retail traders are accustomed to seeking surgical precision in technical levels. Clear lines, pinpoint support, geometric resistance. But the truth is that the market doesn't move in such an orderly fashion. I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, and I thank my Official Broker Partner in advance for supporting us in writing this article. Institutions—banks, macro funds, hedge funds—don't operate to confirm textbook patterns. Instead, they work to manipulate, accumulate, and distribute positions as efficiently as possible. And often, they do so precisely at the so-called "dirty levels." But what are these dirty levels? They are price zones, not individual lines. They are areas where many traders place stop losses, pending orders, or breakout entries, making them an ideal target for institutional players. The concept of a dirty level arises from the fact that the price fails to respect the "perfect" level, but breaks it slightly and then retraces its steps: a false breakout, a trap, a hunt for stops. Banks are very familiar with the behavior of retail traders. They have access to much more extensive information: aggregated positioning data, open interest in options, key levels monitored by algorithms. When they see concentrations of orders around a zone, they design actual liquidity triggers. They push the price just beyond the key level to "clean" the market, generate panic or euphoria, and then initiate their actual trade. How are these levels identified? A trader who wants to operate like an institution must stop drawing sharp lines and start thinking in trading bands. A dirty level is, on average, a zone 10 to 15 pips wide, around a psychological level, a previous high/low, or a breakout area. But technical structure alone is not enough. It's important to observe: Volume density (volume profile or book visibility) Aggregate retail sentiment (to understand where stops are placed) Key option levels (especially gamma and maximum pain) Rising open interest (as confirmation of institutional interest) When a price approaches a dirty level, you shouldn't enter. You should wait for manipulation. The price often briefly breaks above that range, with a spike, and only then does it retrace its steps in the opposite direction. That's when banks enter: when retail has unloaded its positions or been forced into trading too late. The truly expert trader enters after the level has been "cleaned," not before. This type of reading leads you to trade in the opposite way to the crowd. It forces you to think ahead: where they want you to enter... and where they actually enter. And only when you begin to recognize these invisible patterns, when you understand that the market is not linear but designed to deceive you, do you truly begin to become a professional trader. Conclusion? Trading isn't about predicting the price, but predicting the intentions of those who actually move the market. Dirty levels are key. Those who know how to read manipulation can enter profitably, before the real acceleration. And from that moment, they'll never look back.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
#AN016: Markets Brace for Tariffs, Forex Reaction Markets have taken a cautious tone this week, as investors digest new developments on global trade and central bank prospects. A mix of US tariff threats, higher OPEC+ oil production and surprisingly strong eurozone investor sentiment is shaping currency flows. I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, and I want to thank our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE in advance for helping me put this article together. Investor confidence in the eurozone surged to a three-year high in July. This positive sentiment is reducing the European Central Bank's room to cut rates further, even as inflation remains subdued. Meanwhile, US President Trump has ordered letters threatening tariffs of up to 70% for nations that fail to conclude trade deals by August 1, creating fresh uncertainty in diplomatic and trade circles. Asian markets and BRICS currencies have already shown signs of weakness, while US futures have weakened on the threat. Oil markets have also reacted sharply to OPEC+’s announcement of a higher-than-expected production increase of around 550,000 barrels per day from August, which has pushed Brent below $68 and US crude below $66. On the European inflation front, the ECB is opting to postpone further rate cuts. Estonian Minister Madis Müller confirmed that the ECB can afford to put monetary easing on hold, given stable inflation and solid growth. reuters.com Forex Impact – What Traders Should Watch The combination of strong eurozone sentiment and looming trade tensions is driving significant currency dynamics this week: EUR/USD: The euro has room to strengthen further. Optimistic sentiment and a pause from the ECB reinforce the bullish bias, but tariff uncertainty could trigger safe-haven demand for USD. USD/JPY and CHF: The dollar could find support amid global risk aversion, pushing JPY and CHF higher. Commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NOK): Under double pressure: higher oil supply and rising trade risks could weigh on crude-related currencies. Emerging market currencies: BRICS currencies could remain under pressure due to threats of additional US tariffs; Indian rupee and other currencies could depreciate further.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
#007: LONG EUR/MXN Investment OpportunityHi, I'm Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about this long investment opportunity on EUR/MXN. After a careful analysis of institutional flows, market sentiment and macroeconomic dynamics between Europe and Mexico, I have identified a potential medium-term long opportunity on this currency pair, often overlooked by retail traders but closely followed by professional operators for its hybrid technical-fundamental structure. I would like to thank in advance the Official Partner Broker PEPPERSTONE who supported us in creating this technical analysis. 🔍 Technical and strategic context In recent days, EUR/MXN has shown typical institutional accumulation behavior: prolonged congestion on key levels, progressive decrease in volatility, increase in volume anomalies on bearish spikes and presence of clear defenses on strategic support areas. All this while retail positioning remains strongly unbalanced short, with over 75% of retail operators selling this pair in the current area. Historically, when such extreme levels of imbalance are reached, the likelihood of an institutional-driven reversal increases significantly. 🧠 Expected Behavior and Institutional Dynamics Large financial institutions – including global banks and hedge funds – never enter “on cue”: they enter when the market is ready for them to win. This often happens after retail has positioned itself heavily against the upcoming move, and that is exactly what we are seeing these hours. EUR/MXN is a high-yielding pair: the Mexican peso often benefits from favorable carry trades, but is also highly exposed to geopolitical tensions (such as the current US-Iran turmoil) and the overall direction of the US dollar and the euro. In this environment, with a stable euro and rising systemic risk, the natural flow tends to move away from the Mexican peso, making long EUR/MXN particularly attractive. 🎯 Operational positioning and objectives My entry occurred on a well-defined compression zone, with a protected technical stop loss and a target calculated on structure, volumes and previous similar breakouts. The target is an area around 22.73, where institutional profit taking is likely to arrive. It should be noted that the entire current structure is built on protection zones generated by passive orders: we know that in EUR/MXN these levels have historically caused strong rebounds when reached. 📊 Conclusion This trade is not simply a directional bet. It is the thoughtful execution of a model based on the behavior of large operators, market psychology and advanced analysis of capital flows. It is not about "predicting the future", but positioning yourself at the same time as the strong hands do, exploiting their own rules. My goal is to operate like a hedge fund does, and in this trade on EUR/MXN I see all the conditions for this to happen.
Long
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
#AN013: USD and AUD under pressure, Euro advances 1. India: New strategy on FX volatility The Indian Respondents' Bank (RBI) is allowing more volatility on the USD/INR exchange rate, prompting many companies to hedge with forward contracts. This is the highest level of coverage since 2020. We thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE who supported us in writing this article. FX Impact: Potential weakening of the rupee in the short term, but increased stability in the medium-long term. Volatility on USD/INR, EUR/INR, JPY/INR ? opportunities for carry trades and short-term shorts if the dollar strengthens. 2. Australia hit by extreme storms Severe storms hit New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria: 100 km/h winds, torrential rains and blackouts on over 30,000 homes. Australian economic sentiment pressured ? AUD weak. Opportunities on AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD from a short perspective. Monitor agricultural and insurance developments ? risk of extended downside. 3. Iran: Fordow nuclear site severely damaged US strike hits Iranian nuclear site. In response, Iran has threatened to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil transport. Geopolitical volatility expected to rise. Increased flows to safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF and USD. Also impacting CAD and AUD due to oil ? risk of short-term upside but corrections if stalemate persists. 4. US $3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion Senate considering mega stimulus plan. This fuels fears of new debt ? dollar falls to 4-year low against euro. EUR/USD long strengthened (break above 1.17 already underway). GBP/USD and NZD/USD potentially in push. Risk of FED rate cut? increased volatility on dollar and bonds. Strategic Conclusion Recommended operations: long on EUR/USD, short on AUD/USD, long on USD/INR (only with confirmation). Watch out for the next 48 hours: possible spike on CHF, JPY and CAD. Institutional timing: probable fund inflows on EUR and USD in case of confirmed breakouts; stay ready but avoid front-running. Stay updated for other news.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
#006: EUR/NOK SHORT Investment Opportunity Hi, I'm Andrea Russo and today I want to show you this SHORT investment opportunity on an often undervalued but extremely interesting pair: EURNOK. I would like to thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in creating this article. The Euro / Norwegian Krone exchange rate has reached an excess area, with a recent high in the 11.79 area, showing signs of bullish exhaustion on multiple timeframes. Prices are currently above the EMA200, but this data is not enough to justify a further extension of the rise, especially considering the behavior of institutional operators and the macro weakness of the euro. Technical context The price structure shows a congestive lateral phase, with upper spikes that do not find continuation, signaling a probable distribution phase. The level of 11.8530 has acted as an upper protective zone, often defended with declining volumes and passive orders. The target at 11.5800 corresponds to a historical cluster of volumes, and is supported by protections at the level of options and open interest. In the event of a break of the local lows, an acceleration of the bearish movement is plausible. Fundamental context The Norwegian krone is currently benefiting from an improvement in domestic macro data, while the euro is suffering from a fragile context with divergences between member countries and signs of slowdown. Market sentiment shows a balanced positioning by retail traders, indicating a possible expectation of institutional investors to strike forcefully in the opposite direction to any future imbalances. Stay tuned for more updates.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
2
"Gold’s War Cry: XAUUSD Eyes $3700 Amid Middle East Turmoil"PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD Gold is once again stepping into the spotlight as global markets reel from escalating geopolitical tensions. With President Trump confirming a full-scale U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—the world is bracing for potential retaliation and broader instability. In times like these, gold doesn’t just shine—it roars. 📈 My Bias: Strongly Bullish 🎯 Targets: - Primary: $3500 - Extended: $3700 These levels are not just technical aspirations—they’re grounded in the reality of rising global risk aversion, central bank accumulation, and a potential flight to safety as the Middle East teeters on the edge of wider conflict. 🔍 Key Technical Zone: - $3341–$3352: This is my immediate area of interest. I expect a pullback into this zone on market open, which could offer a high-probability long setup. - Break Below? If price slices through this zone, I’ll be watching the $3330–$3320 demand area for signs of absorption and reversal. 🧠 Macro Context: - The U.S. strike marks a historic escalation, with Trump declaring the nuclear sites “completely and totally obliterated”. - Iran’s expected retaliation could further destabilize the region, fueling safe haven flows into gold. - Central banks remain net buyers of gold, and with inflation still lurking, real yields remain a key driver. 📊 Confluence Factors: - Rising volume on bullish candles - RSI holding above 50 on higher timeframes - DXY showing signs of topping out - VIX creeping higher—risk-off sentiment brewing 📌 Final Thoughts: Gold is no longer just a hedge—it’s becoming a statement. In a world where headlines move markets, XAUUSD is poised to benefit from both fear and fundamentals. I’ll be watching price action closely at the open, ready to strike if the setup aligns.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Billionaire_bills
15
LINKUSD LINK USD CRYPTO CFD on PEPPERSTONE Higher local rejections aren't marked because they appear to be tested, if you're doubtful, mark them yourself. Initial lows, supports, untested spots marked with hotpurple box. Testing support currently, also a local low has been created, either we regain it and hold to continue with the move up.. or more likely, break below and push on to retest initial lows that created this whole trend up. Always refreshing charting a different ticker, removes imprinted biases, lets you acknowledge key spots, and removes all the bs. Anyways, i'll be watching this ticker over the next week or two. Once again LINKUSD LINK USD CRYPTO CFD on PEPPERSTONE gravy
PEPPERSTONE:LINKUSD
by gravy49
1
What's affecting JPY price?The price of the Japanese Yen (JPY) can be influenced by a variety of factors, including: 1. Macroeconomic factors: The value of the JPY can be affected by macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and unemployment. For example, if Japan's GDP grows at a faster rate than expected, this can cause the value of the JPY to increase. 2. Global market sentiment: The JPY is often seen as a safe-haven currency, meaning that investors tend to buy it during times of global economic or political uncertainty. When investors feel nervous about the global economy or the stability of other currencies, they may flock to the JPY, causing its value to rise. 3. Geopolitical events: The JPY can be affected by geopolitical events such as elections, wars, and diplomatic tensions. For example, if tensions between Japan and another country escalate, this could cause investors to sell off the JPY, leading to a decrease in its value. 4. Monetary policy: The Bank of Japan has the ability to influence the value of the JPY through its monetary policy decisions. For example, if the bank lowers interest rates, this can make the JPY less attractive to investors, causing its value to decrease. 5. Trade relationships: Japan's trade relationships with other countries can also affect the value of the JPY. If Japan's exports increase, this can cause an increase in demand for the JPY, leading to an increase in its value. Overall, the value of the JPY can be affected by a wide range of factors, and it is important to carefully monitor global economic and political developments to gain insight into its potential movements.
Education
by JackPepperstone
1
What's affecting the gold price?Gold is considered a safe-haven asset and is often sought after by investors during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. The price of gold can be influenced by a number of factors, including: 1. Global economic conditions: Economic conditions such as inflation, interest rates, and stock market performance can all affect the price of gold. In general, when economic conditions are uncertain or unstable, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset, driving up its price. 2. Demand and supply: The supply and demand of gold can have a significant impact on its price. While gold mining production can increase the supply of gold, demand from jewelry, technology, and investment can also fluctuate and impact the price. 3. Geopolitical events: Political instability or uncertainty, such as conflict or trade disputes, can increase demand for gold as a safe haven asset, leading to price increases. 4. Currency fluctuations: Since gold is priced in US dollars, fluctuations in currency values can also impact its price. When the US dollar weakens, gold becomes relatively cheaper for investors using other currencies, which can increase demand and drive up the price. 5. Interest rates: The price of gold tends to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. When interest rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower, which can increase demand and drive up the price. It's important to note that the price of gold can be volatile and can fluctuate based on a variety of factors. Investors interested in gold should do their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by JackPepperstone
BTCUSD reached a turning point for LongLooking at Bitcoin we can both notice that Bitcoin has been falling rapidly in the past few weeks due to China and Tesla refusing to accept Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell from 60k to 29k which was a bad fall but an opportunity for new investors to capitalise on by buying Bitcoin as it has already reached a turning point and gaining back it's momentum and value. So for every trader it's a good news because Bitcoin will go Long. For more accurate details you can check my Analysis
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by ForexKid101
Use the ECB meet to sell EURJPY ralliesTrade set up – Our preference is to sell rallies in EURJPY, placing a limit order at 128.30. With implied volatility spiking, predominantly in global equities, the JPY has strengthened, and we believe it will continue to do so, as traders flock to the guru of all safe haven currencies. Should the trade be filled, we would target 126.75, placing stops set at 128.75 (20-SMA dynamic resistance can be used too). Why we like it - With the JPY strengthening against all major currency pairs and the VIX index spiking to the highest close since February, we see risk appetite falling, which should result in further downside in EURJPY. Global equities have continued their decline, and it seems support levels mean very little here, and this is having the clear knock-on effect in FX, increasing uncertainty and moving traders to JPY. Tactically, there are risks of a small upside tick in the EUR with the ECB monetary policy statement coming later today, but we don't see Draghi changing his trajectory when it comes to QE and policy. With that in mind, any rallies are a selling opportunity as we ride the trend and leverage to elevated volatility. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
Short
by Pepperstone
1