Short Peso on break through support level targeting 17.40 levelAs OIL climbes higher, I favor shorts on this pair. If price breaks through support area - go short targeting
17.30 - 17.40 area (next level of support) with SL at 18.40.
Peso
Possible correction in the USDCOPThe inverse correlaion between oil and the dollar remains , therefore fell last week nearly 140 pesos.
With falls on Thursday and Friday a pattern of bearish candles known as "Techo en Pinzas" was formed. This move leaves the 3,320 as a resistance .
While the dollar does not close above 3,320 , there is a likelihood of a correction towards 3,120 or 3,060 ; Prices in this area are above previous minimum and the uptrend line , which act as support areas.
If the dollar closed above 3,330 , it is likely that the upward trend comes back and the dollars set a new high.
USDMXN SHORTThe resistence level of circa 17.2400 from August is being tested for the second time having failed to break it in September.
I'll take the Peso for $1,000 Alex!Keep the Mexican Peso on your radar screen if you are a currency trader. She is setting up nicely and should have a good two week move when triggered. Stay Tuned
Merval index: Bearish time at mode trend signal and fundamentalsIn this thread I'd like to discuss my current forecast for Argentina's Merval index.
Price expanded range down and crossed below the yearly average last week, after the Government was forced to make speculators use the official dollar rate to valuate their assets in the local market, beause of the decline of foreign reserve currency. Instantly many big speculators started selling and made the index crash 3 days ago.
This also impacted the unofficial exchange rate of the 'contado con liqui' dollar, which is a way to obtain dollars by buying stocks or bonds and selling them in foreign exchanges. With the strict government controls on foreign currency, there's a huge market revolving around this, which fuels the 'dollar blue' rates, which is a black market cash dollar you can buy without abiding by the government's limits and regulations.
The official rate is 70% lower than this last one.
Some key dates to keep in mind, from: bakerinstitute.org
"October 25 – Federal Election Day and Local Elections in 11 Provinces
On October 25 Argentina will hold its presidential election as well as elections in eight provinces to elect a total of 24 senators (one-third of the Senate) and elections in all 23 provinces and the city of Buenos Aires to elect 130 deputies (one-half of the Chamber of Deputies). Simultaneous gubernatorial, provincial legislative and mayoral/city council elections will be held in 11 of the country’s 23 provinces, including the province of Buenos Aires, which contains 39 percent of the Argentine population.
November 22 – Presidential Runoff Election
If on October 25 the first-place candidate does not win either more than 45 percent of the valid vote or at least 40 percent of the valid vote and at the same time finish more than 10 percent ahead of the second-place candidate, a runoff election between the top two candidates from the first round will be held on November 22. The candidate who receives the most votes on this date will be elected president for a four-year term and assume office on December 10."
I expect to see massive volatility in my local currency, the stock and bond markets in the coming months. Sadly it's not looking good at all.
On a technical basis, forecasting will be relatively easier once we clear the recent weekly low or high.
If price remains inside this range, then we might witness sideways action until the elections are out of the way (this is what I expect).
Regards,
Ivan.
USDCOP COLOMBIAN PESO ON THE ZONETHE COLOMBIAN PESO HAS BEEN IN THE 2600S ZONE 3 TIMES IN THE LAST 12 YEARS, AND IT HAS NEVER CLOSED ABOVE 2700. WE NEED TO SEE A BOUNCE IN THE PRICE OF OIL, OR AT LEAST SEE IT HANDLE THE 57-60 LEVEL AND EXPECT THE PESO GO TOWARDS ZONES OF 2200 FOR NOW. MAYBE THE POLICY MAKER OF THE COLOMBIA FINDS OUT WHAT IS OBVIUS AND LET THE PESO GET STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLAR. THE TECHNICALS SHOW THAT IT IS CLEARLY OVERBOUGHT, BUT THE PAIR DEPENDS A LOT OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ACTUAL GOVERNMENT IS REALLY KICKING DOLLARS OF THE COUNTRY AND THAT MAKES HARD THAT THE PESO DEVALUATES A LITTLE.
EVEN THOUGH IS AN INTERESTING THING THAT THE PESO HAS NEVER BEEN ABOVE 2650 LEVEL ALMOS IN THIS MILLENIUM.
USDMXN (Mexican Peso) and a bearish Elliott Wave PatternThe strong sell-off in the USDMXN over the past few days provides clues that bounces higher have been large corrective moves.
First of all, the pattern from May 2013 to Jan 2014 (maroon block labels) suggests it is a large 3 wave bounce higher.
The sell off since Jan 2014 could count as an impulsive 5 wave decline.
Secondly, the bounce higher starting in June 2014 is a clear 3 wave affair with current pricing overlapping the June 2014 high of 13.14.
As a result, two different 3 wave moves higher suggest the much bigger picture is positioned to the downside. Now, the question becomes where we find resistance to sell a bounce.
There is some resistance near 13.14. A bounce into that level could be a first look. Risk can be placed near 13.21
First target would be 12.90 with lower potential if this is a red wave (3).
