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Petrodollar

$DXY may be strong vs currencies but it's in trouble longer termWe've stated that TVC:DXY has been in danger for over 2 years. (Not here but on Twitter) The real purchasing power of US #Dollar has vaporized and has lost over 95% of its original value! The current system is on pace for a reset. Whether this is by design or not is irrelevant. There are trillions of dollars in derivatives, almost half was "compressed" recently to hide it, & debt. It's like tiny hole in a dam. - The Petro #Dollar could be on its last legs as Saudi Arabia wants to be a part of #BRICS. This alliance is gaining momentum. They are forming allies & many more want to join. Not only is #currency at play here but their dominance of the #energy market, which is critical, seems to be their endeavor, . #CBDCs #CBDC #GOLD #SILVER #BTC #Bitcoin
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Gold - $2,000 Is a Death TrapThis is a follow up to my June 2 call for a new ATH on Gold, that will be bearish, instead of bullish: Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped? In the process of tracking this, price action did not meet expectations (in the sense that it has not traded low enough), and so I began to reconsider the overall topography of the market. Also, right now, I have an open call on silver for $33: Silver - 33 Moons However, as price has not traded down the levels I regard as requisite to trigger a bull impulse, while I still believe that these high prices will manifest in the future, the market makers desire lower prices first. One thing to note about gold is both the monthly and weekly bars are actually bearish despite price having formed a long-term triple top: But in the shorter term (1H-4H-1D) candles, gold is clearly heading towards higher prices after bouncing exactly over $1,900. As I've said before, one of the problems with a metals bull market right now is that Xi Jinping and the Chinese government (the Chinese Communist Party) have amassed a large amount of gold in recent months. China's economy is doing extremely poorly following the decimation of the Party by Wuhan Pneumonia and the CCP faces threats on all sides, especially from the International Rules Based Order who now chatters about "de-risking" from China. Since the United States tends to be the market maker of everything, this is trouble for China's central bank. Large stocks of gold and a heavily declining price will put the regime in a great deal of trouble, depleting the money it has available for buying people off. And this is a huge geopolitical threat, for Xi Jinping has one Trump card to play: throw away the CCP in the middle of Beijing time, which is the U.S. night, and weaponize the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against Falun Dafa (Falun Gong) meditation, which was launched by Jiang Zemin and its band of toad cronies in Shanghai. Another thing to note is since the pandemic crash, BUT BEFORE 2022, gold has had something of an inverse covariance with the SPX and the SPX has an inverse covariance with the USD. But after 2022, gold has traded mostly in lockstep with the SPX, although in recent days and weeks that has begun to decouple. Looking at the daily covariance, gold and the USD have an inverse covariance with the overextended equities market: And I anticipate a USD rally, as I state here: DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Since I believe what the market makers have in store for us is a significant downtrend in the equities market until September: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Gold setting a new high right now doesn't make sense. And so what I believe will happen is the target for the algorithm right now is $2,030, and it amounts to a short squeeze/bull trap. This will both take out the June high and draw in buyside demand over the $2,000 level, since retail goldbugs are always pining for a new all time high. But the rally will fail, again, and the markets at large will fail again (except for Natural Gas). Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember Her And as the rally fails we'll see lower prices. Probably ending in the $1,800 range. This amounts to a 10%~ drop and is pretty painful if you're sitting leveraged long and even worse if you're leveraged on call options. If $1,800 is violated, then the top is probably already in, in my opinion. So, be careful and make sure you practice social distancing from atheism, Marxist-Leninism, the Theory of Evolution, QAnon, and the CCP itself. Long gold is about returning to tradition, and mankind's Heaven sent traditions are even more luminous than an entire vault of 100.00% pure AU.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LordWrymouth
1
LOOK AT THAT BEAUTIFUL WTHE MARKET STRUGGLE IS REAL. ACCOUNTS DON'T KNOW WHAT'S REALLY GOING ON. WHEN I POST THE "W" OF THE TVC:DXY YOU WILL SEE AN ASTONING "W AS WELL... BUT ON A LARGER TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ALL JUST A WAITING PERIOD FOR ALL MARKETS TO FINALLY ALIGN AND ATTUNE THEMSELVES FOR THE NEXT PHASE... AND IF TVC:DXY FLOATS AND STAYS ABOVE HKEX:104 THEN ACCOUNTS ARE IN FOR A RUDE AWAKENING. DON'T LISTEN TO ME JUST PAY ATTENTION AND LOOK HARDER BUT IN A MORE... SIMPLE WAY... STEP AWAY FROM THE SCREEN AND TAKE A LOOK. IT IS ALL GLARING AT YOU. Anyway, it's a late night. Off to dreamland. Rest up... we have a long decade ahead. Take care and be safe. #2026Mutation #DXY #BRICS #PETRODOLLAR #HYPERINFLATION #SOUTHAMERICANBANKINGEXECUTIVES #SHIBA #25SIGMA -----------------------------------1-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------0-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------0------------------------------------------------- Note: Full "W" swing in one twenty-four hour period. Nice job.
COINBASE:SHIBUSD
by NebulousMercuria
Petro Dollar - A controlled Demolition 🇺🇸 🛢 💸 Petro-Dollar chart to illustrate the inevitable collapse of the current world reserve currency: The U.S. needs cheap oil prices for the dollar to remain competitive globally and to retain the world reserve currency status 🇺🇸 🛢 💸 They accomplish this by controlling oil production globally, flooding the market with oil products, while synthetically increasing our reliance on the product. When oil prices get too high, it taxes other countries who need to trade their currency for dollars in order to buy oil 🛢 making these dollar transactions very expensive. If oil prices can't be negotiated lower, then they need to cause a financial crisis to weaken the dollar to make it cheaper to transact in. They create this liquidity by inflating the currency 🖨 i.e. "Quantitative Easing." If Trump & the BRICS Nations cut ✂️ the oil supply, the FED would soon bleed out as the dollar melts upward and runs out of liquidity. They'd be forced to cause yet another collapse and hyper-inflate the dollar away 💵 to make transacting in it competitive again. Risk assets would soar under these conditions, ending with the pop of the everything bubble. The Great Reset..... a planned demolition.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by sir_Cooley
Is this the End of US Dollar Dominance? The US dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged as countries become eager to insulate themselves from Washington’s influence. For decades, the dollar has dominated the global monetary system. Currently, about 60 percent of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks are in US dollars, and nearly 90 percent of all currency transactions involve the use of the dollar. However, the dollar's reserve status began to decline in 2014 when some major global powers began to de-dollarize their business dealings. The War in Ukraine, and the subsequent sanctions that it inspired have accelerated the de-dollarization process. For one, Chinese authorities were surprised by the seizure of the Russian central bank's foreign exchange reserves following the Ukraine invasion. In the event of a conflict between the US and China, Chinese assets could also be at risk. Recent de-dollarization events include: During a press briefing at the Davos forum in January, Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan surprised journalists by stating that the oil-rich nation was willing to consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar for the first time in 48 years. Last week, Chinese and French energy companies completed the first-ever deal on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China using the renminbi yuan currency. The trade involved the import of 65,000 tons of LNG from the United Arab Emirates and represents a significant milestone in Beijing's efforts to challenge the US dollar's position as the universal "petrodollar" for gas and oil trade. Brazil has also recently announced an agreement with China to trade directly in their own currencies, bypassing the US dollar as an intermediary. India is also making efforts to reduce the US dollar's dominance in international trade by launching separate programs to settle transactions in their own currencies. The Reserve Bank of India recently allowed central banks from 18 countries to open special Vostro Rupee Accounts (SVRAs) to settle payments in Indian rupees. Overall, the US dollar's share of the global market has decreased from 71 percent to 59 percent over the last two decades and could shrink even further in the future. The primary victim in this scenario is the United States, as currency usage in global trade is a zero-sum game. Each time a yuan, real, or rupee is exchanged on the global market, a dollar is not. If credible alternatives gain steam, the dominance of America in the global market will be compromised.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
⚠️ 🔥 Systemic Risks Alert & the 3 De-couplingsThis is long 20 min video. I think i reached the limit as i didn't manage to finish the recording but you will get the point. You better get the point or you might run deadly risks going Long or Short.... I am going to start with the 3 de-couplings: 1. China-US Decoupling 2. Banks - Crypto decoupling 3. Crypto-Indices decoupling I cover all 3 in the video plus i offer my insights on how to approach the trading part (hedge mode is ON). Potential Systemic Risk events: 1. Banks.. not looking good, it's quiet now but willit be under control? 2. Attack on the petrodollar. Will US lose the superpower status? Ask Saudi Arabia 3. War. Will it stay just in Ukraine? Combine it with (2) and it could be bad. Links: thediplomat.com www.middleeastmonitor.com news.sky.com tvpworld.com goldswitzerland.com Allow me to be worried..or if you don't agree with me you might want to agree with Ernest Hemingway: “the first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war” www.forbes.com Stay cool, this is just history in the making. The FXPROFESSOR (Bitcoin sounds like the best option)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FX_Professor
2
OIL ROAD TO $50 , CHEAP OILHello everyone, I have been using this chart ever since wave 2 and have been shorting OIL since $110ish. Why? We all know oil is overpriced and it went up parabolically after having crashed to negative prices. I believe oil has much more to go down as the PetroDollar is dying. China,alongside BRICS members, have united forces to create the PETROyuan and will definitely yield a problem to the PETROdollar. Prices may even go lower than what I especulate but it does not take rocket science to believe what I know. Some important facts about OIL we have to remember: -Oil is one of the most important commodities in the world, used for transportation, heating, and electricity generation. It is a global market with prices affected by supply and demand, geopolitical events, and global economic conditions. -The major players in the oil market used to be Russia and USA but its now China and mother Russia in an attempt to compete against the US economy. -The price of oil is typically quoted in US dollars per barrel but that is now changing as oil rich countries are looking for new relationships with BRICS. -Factors that can impact the price of oil include changes in production levels, geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and global economic conditions. -The oil market can be traded through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and individual stocks of oil companies. -When analyzing the oil market, it is important to consider both technical analysis (chart patterns, support and resistance levels, and indicators) and fundamental analysis (supply and demand factors, geopolitical risks, and economic data). Have a nice day everyone!
TVC:USOILShort
by CryptoGao1
1
Economic Outlook for 10-15 years aheadMy Economic Outlook for 10-15 years ahead The rare double-dip recession October CPI report shows Inflation slightly decreased to 7.7% and The Fed already made a statement to decrease The Fedfunds Rate. Potential Fed pivot approximately will occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. That will be the time of disinflationary period or maybe we are already in by now. What to be expected in disinflationary period is stock market drawdown will continue, rising unemployment, more business entities will collapse, fewer job openings, in short 2023 will be dark especially in the US. Technically it is a recession. The good news is inflation can be pushed back to 2% area and from there QE can be restarted. Most people that already tired by long economic drawdown are strongly craving for bull market. Productivity will rise again along with its economic and secondary leverage and a creeping up inflation leaving the 2% area. An inherent nature of capitalism. The question is what will be the destiny of Petrodollar as its losing control over the total international trade volume. The rapid change of global power dynamics which spearheaded by BRICS+ economy has substantially diminish the Dollar hegemony. The regional powers that have control over the world commodities are grouping up to create a new, commodity-backed currency. In addition to that there is a strongly rising tension between Russia and NATO. More than 50 years ago, the US left the Bretton-Woods System and to keep the US dollar relevant as global reserve currency, Petrodollar was introduced and rapidly embraced by the OPEC which consequently making the US Dollar became the world's most traded currency. That is the underlying value of the Dollar besides of debt. But the current astronomical $30+ Trillion of government debt and the weakening of Petrodollar globally has come to a critical question of what will be the next US decisive move? Chaos has to be applied first to disrupt any potential challenger to the US Dollar, and from there a revolutionary economic policy has to be implemented. Worst case scenario is the new Great Depression can manifest after almost 100 years since its first occurrence in 1929. Note: This economic outlook which also the same with any version of economic outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This post is mean for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPX
by derahmanov
US Dollar Resumes RallyThe DXY has rallied breaking through resistance at 102.86, which remained a hard upper bound to the price range established this week. The US dollar is at multi-year highs against many other major world currencies such as the Yen and the Euro. We have smashed through 102.86, finding immediate resistance at 103.82, which was our next technical level after 102.86. Currently, we appear to be breaking out further, into the vacuum zone between 103.24 and 104.00. If momentum persists, we should be able to test 104's, otherwise, watch for support at 102.86, then 101.70.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
DXY on Breakout Watch at the 618 - DXY Breakout = BTC BreakdownDXY on Breakout Watch at the 618 - DXY Breakout = BTC Breakdown Gold on breakout watch as well at the 618. Moving some crypto to PAXG S&P Possible bull trap - VXX and selling VXX Weekly covered calls has paid well since covid ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn7216011
[Advanced Education] Why the US Dollar is Going to DieThis post will be an extremely comprehensive and extensive analysis on the US Dollar. I’ll be explaining the history of this currency, the situation we are faced with today, and what this implies for our future. This post is lengthy, and can be difficult to comprehend if you're a beginner investor, but I've made it as digestible as possible and I highly recommend that you read through the entire post. Disclaimer: I am not a macroeconomist, or a forex expert. Even if I were, that would not imply that I would be able to accurately predict the future of a currency and the financial markets. This is for educational purposes only. Invest and trade at your own risk. Introduction - The entire world has been complaining about the difficulties that the USD has been causing as a key currency. - While there were benefits to having the USD as a key currency, this also meant that the US economy would take a smaller portion of the global economy, and that their trade competitiveness and employment rates would be negatively affected. - While the USD as a key currency provides benefits to major conglomerates and financial institutions, it causes problems to the average working-class people, instigating polarization and conflict. - While the USD’s status as a key currency remains solid, with increasing economic and political cost, the US would have reasons to voluntarily give up on this status. - Nixon gave up on the gold standard, Trump abandoned most international agreements. As history demonstrates, the USD could also be taken down from its place as a key currency as well. History The Beginning - During the mid-19th century, around the first world war, the United Kingdom’s Poud Sterling played the role of a key currency. - Back then, they used the gold standard, in which the currency was backed by gold. - In other words, if you took cash to the bank, they would exchange it for a certain amount of gold. - Around the UK’s end of its heydays in 1914, they were losing competitiveness due to massive gold outflow. (Since they use the gold standard, a trade deficit indicates gold outflow) - They halted the gold standard during WW1, and in 1925 attempted to bring it back. - But in doing so, they made a big mistake of using the same rates at 1914. - As a result, this lead to a even bigger, and faster outflow of gold from the UK, which ultimately led them to give up on their key currency status. - With the UK as the debtor, and the US as the creditor, the power dynamics shifts, and in 1944, the Bretton Woods system is established. The Bretton Woods System - This system defined all currencies in relation to the US Dollar, which itself was convertible to gold, effectively making the USD the world currency, as every other currency was pegged to it. - There were signs of this new system potentially being established. - Individuals were legally prohibited from owning gold from 1933 - The allied forces moved their gold to the US, in order to keep it safe. - With 70% of the world’s entire gold stored, the Bretton Woods system and the gold standard was implemented. (35 Dollars for an ounce of gold) The Triffin Dilemma - But there is a problem that comes with being a key currency, also known as the Triffin Dilemma - The USD becoming a key currency means that the entire world needs to use the dollar. - This means that the US needs to supply USD to the entire world. - But, if they print more USD for supply, the value of the Dollar drops. - If they don’t do so, in order to maintain the value of the Dollar, there won’t be enough Dollar for international trade The Fall of the Bretton Woods System - In the 1950s, with the emergence of the Japanese and European economy, the US faces a balance of payments deficit. - The US’ government expenditure increases significantly due to their War on poverty and the Vietnam war. - With the credibility of the USD begins to deteriorate globally, the world begins to change their dollars into gold. - The US faces a bank-run like situation, and Nixon abolishes the gold standard, implementing the fiat currency policy. Then why do we still use the USD? With the Gold standard, we were assured that we’d get an ounce of gold for $35. If fiat currency isn’t backed by a commodity, and is based on credit, what motivates us to continue using it? In order to figure out why, it’s important to look at what happened between the US and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia - In 1933, not only did the US ban civilian ownership of gold, but they also established their diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. - US company Standard Oil of California obtains permission for the exploration of crude oil in Saudi Arabia (its subsidiary company is now Saudi Aramco, an oil company with the largest market cap in the world) - Then came World War 2. - Saudi Arabia wanted to remain neutral during WW2, but with Italy’s attack on the country, they had to find a country they could rely on. - The US realized the strategic importance of oil around this time, and decided to remain good friend with Saudi Arabia. - In 1970, the US’ aid to Saudi Arabia amounted to $16 million. - After the gold standard was abolished in 1971, the US’ aid to Saudi Arabia increased by 20x, reaching $312 million. - In 1974, William Simon, a former bond trader from Wallstreet, goes to Saudi Arabia to conclude a secret agreement - The agreement states that the US would provide military aid to Saudi Arabia, and import their oil. - In return, Saudi Arabia would purchase US Treasury Bonds. - This agreement was made secretly, due to the US’ relationship with other Middle Eastern countries, and Saudi Arabia secretly purchased US Treasury Bonds over 41 years. The Petrodollar System - Hence, the Petrodollar system was born. (Petroleum + Dollar) - This is a system, simply put, allows the US Dollar to be loosely backed by oil. - The US found a way to force other countries to use the USD by setting oil prices in USD. - This means that if Japan were to purchase oil, they would first have to exchange Japanese Yet (JPY) to USD. - As the Bretton Woods System falls, the USD is able to maintain its status through this new system. Why did Saudi Arabia purchase US Treasury Bonds? - If Saudi Arabia doesn’t purchase US bonds with the USD they received, this leads to an increasing amount of Dollar in circulation, devaluing the currency significantly. - By reaching an agreement in which Treasury bonds would be bought, the US would be able to operate with a massive government deficit. The Fundamental Issue of the Petrodollar System - However, the Petrodollar system also encompasses the Triffin Dilemma - The US needs to supply USD to the entire world in order to allow countries to purchase oil - A constant supply of USD means that the currency flows outside the country, indicating a trade deficit for the US - As you probably know from Economics 101, when a country is at a trade deficit, it indicates that their products are relatively cheaper in the international markets - The depreciation of the country’s currency leads to an increasing competitiveness in exports. - But in the case of the UK, because their currency was pegged to gold, a trade deficit led to gold outflow. - But that isn’t the case for the Petrodollar system. - Instead of gold outflow, damage was caused to the manufacturing industries in the US. - This is what explains the Rust Belt. Detroit, which once prospered, became a dead city. So What Does America Gain? - Why would the US want to keep the USD as the key currency? - There are also major benefits to keeping the Dollar as a key currency. - Despite the increasing supply, the value of the currency hardly depreciates. - There are benefits to multinational companies going overseas. - With the increasing demand for US Treasury bonds, foreign capital flows into the US - With this, the US is able to keep the interest rate on the bonds at a low rate. - In other words, the government is able to borrow money for a cheap price. - With this all combined, the US’ financial industry gains a competitive edge. Can this system last forever? - I personally believe that this system cannot last forever, and it’s only a matter of time until we see a huge paradigm shift. - There are mainly five reasons as to why this system cannot last forever. 1. Unnecessary Military Expenditure Post-Cold War - The US played the role of a world police during the Cold War. - But after the end of the war, massive military expenditure was deemed unnecessary and burdensome. - The US continued to play the role of a world police – leading up to the Trump administration – for oil and to keep the USD a key currency. 2. The US Shale Revolution - Then came the US Shale Revolution, in which the US significantly increased its production of oil and natural gas. - As a result, from a country that imports oil, the US becomes a country that exports oil - This indicates that there is no need for the US to play the role of a world police in order to secure oil. - Ultimately, while military expenditure fulfilled three main interests of the country (cold war, oil, and USD as a key currency), it’s only left with one purpose of keeping the USD a key currency. 3. China’s Rise - During the Bretton Woods system, the US GDP covered over 40% of the global GDP. - Currently, it barely covers 20% of the global GDP. - This indicates that the US needs to bear more financial instability in order to keep the USD a key currency. - In other words, the cost of maintaining the USD a key currency increases, in relation to the country’s GDP. - China also created the Petroyuan, which is China’s attempt to overthrow the existing Petrodollar system. - Lastly, China was once had the largest treasury bond holdings, which indicates that they could cause a shock to the US economy by selling huge chunks of their position. (Although this would also entail that China’s remaining Treasury bond holdings would lose a lot of value as well) - China has been exploiting the Petrodollar system’s leeway by not abiding by the conventional rules - In the Petrodollar system, foreign countries are able to build export competitiveness, and gain USD, which they return back to the US by purchasing US Treasury bonds. - China, instead of abiding by the rules, decided to purchase real assets and global infrastructure with the USD they gain. - This way, the FED has to support the US’ national debt, which destroys the benefit of having the USD as a key currency. 4. Political Instability (Socioeconomic Polarization) - As mentioned above, with the rise of American financial institutions and decline of the manufacturing industry, socioeconomic polarization is taking place, and it’s getting worse - There’s a discrepancy between economic classes, industries, and countries. - It’s no surprise that polarizing figures like Trump from the right, and Sanders from the left have gained interest from the general public. 5. The Fall of Labor-Intensive Industries. - In the past, the US was no match against China’s labor power. - But, with the 4th industrial revolution, automated robots and artificial intelligence is replacing labor, thereby providing a potential opportunity for the US to gain potential competitiveness in exports. - They could potentially let go of the USD’s status as a key currency, allow the USD to depreciate, and gain a competitive advantage in exports. - While it would take a long time before something like this happens, I believe that the foundations are being laid for such a transition. For these reasons, I believe it’s highly probable that the USD will stop playing the role of a key currency. How to Profit from this Crisis - With massive change comes massive chaos, and the ones who are able to remain unperturbed, and make the right decisions will be the ones to see opportunity in crisis. - I believe that Bitcoin can be one of the best ways to protect your wealth, as the USD collapses. - For an in-depth explanation on why I think so, make sure to check out my previous post: Conclusion In summary, the fall of the USD is a question of when, not if. As to what would happen in the next decade or two, I have no clue. However, the red lights giving warning signs are certainly getting clearer and clearer. You can either risk losing everything from a crisis that might come sooner than we expected, or be prepared for a situation like that, and capitalize on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
TVC:DXY
by Michael_Wang_Official
21
DXY - US Dollar Macro OutlookWelcome to my series of macro outlooks where I put together threads focused on long term perspectives for major asset classes. My goal is to provide you with a long term view that I update on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis so that you can have the means to make wise and calculated trades in the shorter term. I have threads for assets that are typically viewed by investors and traders as market leaders. Having an idea where the market leaders are heading will give you a compass to make decisions in smaller cap assets that tend to follow. I will do my best to keep these threads purely technical in nature. The Dollar Milkshake Theory The dollar milkshake theory, coined by Brent Johnson, is the theory that before any type of hyperinflation occurs, countries must pay off their debts. Since the dollar has historically been the global reserve currency, the majority of debt is held in US dollars. As we enter the stage of retracting economies and deflation, liquidity will get sucked into the dollar. The Petro Dollar The US dollar has been the standard for oil trading. From 1971 to present day, if you want to buy oil, you need dollars to do so. Countries have been trying to get around this. We have seen countries like China swapping oil for gold and other savvy moves. This hasn't become the dominant way of trade to avoid a type of war, I'm assuming. The Forex Markets The forex markets are pairs of national currencies trading back and forth. Each currency "price" reflects the strength of that country's economy against the countries currency it is measured against. The $DXY for example reflects the US dollar against a basket of currencies such as the Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc, Etc. Understanding the forex market, specifically the DXY will give you a snapshot of what the country's economic condition is in. Enjoy!
TVC:DXY
by micahjmiller
3
DXY THEORY YOU HAVEN'T HEARD YET!THE DXY IS ONLY MADE UP OF 6 MAJOR CURRENCIES MEASURED AGAINST THE DOLLAR: EUR (57.6% OF THE WEIGHTING), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%) A MISTAKE MANY PEOPLE MAKE WHEN PREDICTING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH IS USING THE DXY AS A GAUGE FOR ALL CURRENCIES' PERFORMANCES AGAINST THE DOLLAR! EMERGING MARKET AND MANY OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY! RECENTLY, PETER SCHIFF PLACED A BET WITH BRENT JOHNSON ON THE DIRECTION OF THE DXY, STATING THAT THE DXY WOULD BE WEAKER THAN 99 IN JANUARY 2021, WHILE BRENT JOHNSON PREDICTED IT WOULD BE HIGHER! PETER'S THEORY CLAIMS THAT THE CURRENCIES OF PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR FOR MANY OBVIOUS REASONS, WHILE BRENT CLAIMS THAT THE MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF U$Ds WORLDWIDE WILL ACT AS DEMAND ON THE DOLLAR, INCREASING IT'S VALUE AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES! I BELIEVE THEY COULD BE BOTH RIGHT, AND THAT PETER MAY HAVE MADE A MISTAKE IN USING THE DXY AS A BAROMETER: BRENT JOHNSON IS RIGHT BECAUSE: THE WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL ABSORB ALL U$Ds CREATED, AND EUR, GBP, CHF AND CAD WILL ESPECIALLY SUFFER BECAUSE OF THE EURODOLLAR SYSTEM! WESTERN ECONOMIES COULD ALSO WEAKEN SEVERELY WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THEIR CURRENCIES IN ADDITION TO A EURODOLLAR SQUEEZE! PETER SCHIFF IS RIGHT BECAUSE: AS COUNTRIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY DIMINISH THEIR TRADE WITH THE U.S.A., AS THEY CEASE USING THE EURODOLLAR TO SETTLE FORMS OF TRADE NOT INVOLVING THE U.S.A. (MAINLY OIL), AND AS THE AMOUNT OF U$Ds' CREATED IN EXCESS OF THEIR DEMAND FOR DOLLARS INCREASES, PRODUCTIVE ASIAN AND EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES WILL ABSOLUTELY STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR, BUT THIS WILL NOT APPEAR IN THE DXY! IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETS THE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR DOLLARS, AND THEN SOME, WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THE DOLLAR AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES, AND I BELIEVE THIS IS THE CASE, BUT I DO NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY EXPLAINED ABOVE!
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Waiting for Price ActionSeveral confirmations pointing in that direction But there ultimately waiting on price action whether it happens on the support or ceiling. Marked as a neutral signal due to confirmations in both directions. Honestly, Id rather reacts to the market than to try to predict it. I have directions for you for either way the market goes. Waiting for the break of support or Resistance on 1 hr The retest of Support/Resistance on the 1-hour candle or Higher Time frame 2 consecutive 15 min candles in initial breaks direction Projected Entry for Buy EP 1574.85 SL 1564.24 TP1 1579.07 TP2 1587.57 TP3 1596.89 TP4 1614.35 Projected Entry for Sell EP 1556.33 SL 1563.88 TP1 1552.44 TP2 1544.89 TP3 1531.43 TP4 1511.96 I have confirmations for both directions. So this is a Neutral call I will be moving in either direction after price action. Also to add... it's not uncommon to hit TP1 in one direction and TP4 in another. This is not an either or signal. I will take priceaction in either direction. How to read my chart TP's are marked in Green The zone is marked Orange hover over note pins for price action Entries
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Current32sa
Silver : Negative Interest Rates, QE4, End of PetrodollarAll long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold . Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 2006 in the case of these investment trusts. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index ( TDI ) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio. Silver is sitting on top of the .382 fib level support shown in the chart, which is where the current cost of production resides around $14.75/oz. Low risk, high reward - this is a perfect setup for those interested in making an inflation play going toward negative rates, QE4 and the end of the petrodollar agreement. % Returns Analysis: Silver below Gold -> Silver undervalued Fibonacci Level: Strong support at cost of production near $14.75/oz TDI: Bullish divergence in formation Gold/Silver ratio: 83:1 -> Silver undervalued Note: SLV is not equivalent to owning physical silver. Trade SLV at the risk of fund insolvency and loss of investment - most holdings are suggested to be physical.
AMEX:SLVLong
by Derivati_Capital
Oil is a worthless liquidWith global growth slowing down, with oil production being really hard to restrain and with lots alternative sources of energy being able to be exploited, oil is no longer black gold. Especially if the US stops bombarding other countries, while Iran and Russia move of the Petro dollars, then things could get even worse. Technically it looks tragic. It could actually take some time to revisit the 10-25$ range (hence I created the orange waves). No matter what fractal you take, these big sudden drops usually don't stop easily. Oil's bubble popped and now it could even revisit some old levels where real support and the VP HVN lies. I am not a fan of Elliot Waves, I just used them to show my point and what could be lying ahead.
FX:USOILShort
by BitcoinMacro