PGR Weekly Bearish Setup – 2025-06-13 Expiry📉 PGR Weekly Bearish Setup – 2025-06-13 Expiry
🧠 AI Model Consensus | NYSE:PGR
Despite a short-term bounce, multiple AI models signal a bearish bias this week for Progressive Corp ( NYSE:PGR ), driven by weak daily charts and heavy put interest around the $250 zone.
🧪 Model Breakdown:
🔹 Grok/xAI
• 📉 Bearish overall: Price < daily EMAs, negative MACD, oversold RSI
• 🟢 5-min chart shows temporary bounce
• ⚠️ Max pain & heavy put OI @ $250
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ market (target +50%, SL: stock > $272.50)
• 📈 Confidence: 65%
🔹 Claude/Anthropic
• 📉 Below all EMAs (5-min + daily), RSI oversold
• ⚠️ Max pain at $250, put dominance
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ ~$0.70 → PT: $1.40 (100%), SL: $0.35
• 📈 Confidence: ~66%
🔹 Llama/Meta
• 📉 Daily chart bearish, MACD down, near lower BB
• 🟢 Short-term bounce likely
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ $0.85 → PT: $1.275 (50%), SL: $0.25
🔹 Gemini/Google
• 🚨 Strongly bearish daily (MACD down, BB breakdown)
• 📊 Recommends $262.50P for better liquidity
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $262.5P @ $1.25 → PT: $2.50 (100%), SL: $0.625
• 📈 Strategy: Day-trade or short swing
🔹 DeepSeek
• 📉 Bearish across timeframes; RSI oversold, price < EMAs
• ⚠️ Max pain at $250, strong put skew
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ $0.85 → PT: $1.70 (100%), SL: $0.425
• 📈 Confidence: 75%
✅ Consensus Summary:
📉 Market Direction: Bearish
• Daily structure weak across all models
• Max pain + put OI @ $250 = downside magnet
• Short-term relief rally possible, but larger trend down
• $262.50P selected for best liquidity & execution
📌 Suggested Trade Setup
🎯 Symbol: NYSE:PGR
🟢 Strike: 262.50 PUT
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13
💵 Entry Price: $1.25
🎯 Profit Target: $2.50 (+100%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.625 (–50%)
📈 Confidence: 75%
⏰ Entry Timing: Market open
⚠️ Risk Factors
• 📈 Short-term RSI oversold → possible bounce
• 🟢 5-min trend relief rally could cause drawdown
• 🧊 VIX dropping → lower option volatility
• 💸 Liquidity better at $262.50 than $260 strikes
📊 TRADE JSON
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