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Next PI Cycle Top and BottomApproximately every four years, we observe a PI Cycle Top, and similarly, every four years, we see a PI Cycle Bottom. This means there is roughly a two-year gap between the PI Cycle Top and Bottom. Based on historical data, the next PI Cycle Top, expected in 2025, will likely fall between $130K and $160K. Following this peak, we can anticipate around two years before reaching the next PI Cycle Bottom. Historically, the PI Cycle Bottom tends to align closely with the previous cycle's Top, which would place it in the range of $58K to $68K. However, it's important to note that these are not fixed predictions but rather a brief analysis based on historical trends.
BNC:BLX
by seoco
2
Cycle Top Indicator [CTI] | Deep Dive AnalysisIn this post we will look at some of the long-term trends identified with the tracking of the CTI indicator (Red and Green Moving averages in the price chart), and what we can learn from the observed behaviors over Cycle 1 / 2 / 3 and possible implications for Cycle 4. INDICATOR RECAP The CTI indicator attempts to model the cycle top based on observed historic price over extension from Cycle 1 / 2. Indicator marks a cycle top when the 'Fast MA' (Red Line) crosses above the 'Slow MA' (Green Line). I.e. the condition where both MAs price value is equal. I should be noted that this condition was achieve for every cycle to date so far, and that the condition was met twice for the experienced 'double peak top' in Cycle 1 but was only met for the first of the two peak tops during Cycle 3. OSCILLATOR: % DISTANCE MODELLED BETWEEN SLOW (GREEN MA) & FAST (RED MA) – NORMALISED TO PRICE The below oscillator models the %Distance away from each other the Green Line and the Red line gets over BTC's cycles (Normalised to Price). * RED HORIZONTAL LINE: When the oscillator is equal to 1, this models the price value of the Green and Red moving averages as equal (or the CTI cycle top condition) * ORANGE HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark the maximum over extension the Red MA exceeded the Green MA during a cycle top condition. * GREEN HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark low levels of the oscillator, indicator maximum distance of the Red MA below the Green MA during each cycle. BLACK SLOPING TREND LINE(s): Represent the diminishing trend of overlap between the Green and Red Mas each cycle. * VERTICAL RED AND GREEN LINES: Show cycle tops and bottoms as triggered by the CTI and CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicators) – NOTE: CBI moving averages not shown. SIGNIFICANCE OF ORANGE HORIZONTAL & BLACK TREND LINES It is observable that each peak of the Oscillator is lower than the previous cycle peak (each peak is marked with an Orange horizontal line). This diminishing trend is shown with each orange line marked lower than the line before, and modeled with the Black downward sloping trend line(s) connecting the peaks. A reminder that the Red Horizontal line shows the condition with the CTI models the cycle top and conditions above the Red Horizontal line show the % distance the Red MA reaches above the Green MA each cycle. For example: * Cycle 1 Peak = 1.58 * Cycle 2 First peak = 1.25 * Cycle 2 Second peak = 1.20 * Cycle 3 First peak = 1.07 The diminishing trend of this relationship over each cycle (if historic behavior continues) suggest that the CTI overlap condition for cycle 4 my not eventuate. This would be modeled by our oscillator not exceeding the red line in Cycle 4. The learnings for this analysis could suggest that waiting for the CTI indicator to Fire may result in a non-event for Cycle 4. SIGNIFICANCE OF GREEN HORIZONTAL LINES A surprising finding from this analysis show for all cycles to date that when the modeled oscillator reaches levels between -1.11 and -1.82 and particularly for Cycles 2 / 3 & 4 between -1.50 & -1.82 (Red MA % distance below the Grean MA), Historically BTC has found its cycle bottom. These findings are summarized below for quick reference. * CYCLE 1-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.11 <> -1.82 * CYCLE 2-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.50 <> -1.82 Feel free to include any other observations I may have missed in the comments below. i intend to do a similar analysis for the CBI indicator when I find the time.
BNC:BLX
by Brodie
An updated look at BTCUSD’s pi cycle If I was a betting man, it seems to me like the top white line of the pi cycle indicator (350ma) is very likely to reach the full breakout target price of the cup and handle pattern bitcoin has broken up from (at $133282) long before the lower yellow line of the pi cycle (111ma) has a chance to catch back up to it and cross above it for the pi cycle top. In fact I have a feeling we won’t even be close to the yellow one even being near the white line by the time the white line reaches that level, suggesting that we have far more upside left to go in this bull cycle. In the past most if not all pi cycle tops have happened after price action gets above the white line, so if that trend should continue we can look at whatever the white lines price action is and know theres a high probability that that means the top price bitcoin reaches this bull run wll be even higher. *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
When Will Bitcoin Hit Its Next Peak?The BTC weekly chart with the Pi Cycle Indicator has historically been a reliable tool in predicting major Bitcoin market cycle highs and lows. As shown in the chart, this indicator successfully marked the peak of Bitcoin bull runs and bottom of bear markets during the last three major market cycles. The green markers on the chart labeled "Pi Cycle High" correspond to moments where Bitcoin reached its cycle top. These highs occurred during 2013, 2017, and 2021, right at the peak of major bull markets, suggesting the effectiveness of the Pi Cycle indicator in identifying sell zones. The blue markers labeled "Pi Cycle Low" signal the exact periods when Bitcoin hit its bear market bottom, seen in 2015, 2019, and potentially in 2022. These points provided strong buy opportunities before the market entered a new bull phase. Bitcoin currently trading above $62,000, the Pi Cycle Indicator has not yet signaled a new cycle high. This suggests that Bitcoin could still have further upside potential before reaching its next peak. If the historical pattern holds, we might expect Bitcoin to continue rising over the next year before the Pi Cycle High indicator signals the next top, potentially in mid to late 2025. Keep a close eye on the Pi Cycle indicator, as it could once again provide crucial signals for a peak in this cycle. Regards Hexa
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by HexaTrades
Pi cycle bottom signal is ON!Pi cycle bottom indicator has been historically very accurate to mark the bottom or a close bottom! It has been turned on now! which means that: 1. $21k BTC was the bottom; 2. or very close to the bottom. Historically, BTC saw a major capitulation on a black swan event after the Pi cycle bottom. So: 1. BTC could potentially see a dip below $21k in the medium-term (6 to 12 months). 2. Or BTC could hover around its current price to bore everyone out of the market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by KingRogue
4
Bitcoin PI Cycle Indicator - MAs with 195% distanceHow would you rate the entry points (yellow cycles) for Bitcoin when you look at the naked chart (see below in the comments)?? We got quite nice entry-points for Bitcoin with less or no more downside every time when the PI Cycle Indicator MAs had a distance of 195% Of course that is no guarantee for the future and the MAs distance was higher at some points... ...but the probability that Bitcoin is near a bottom is not small looking at these facts in the chart Tell me your opinion about that dear Crypto Nation 😎 *not financial advice do your own research before investing
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
1
⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 19/07⚡️⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 19/07⚡️ 60:40 Bullish: Bearish Been keeping an eye on the Pi Cycle Indicator recently and it looks like the bottom has come in. This thing has called a perfect top consistently. Like with all TA and Indicators nothing works 100% of the time....but so far this has worked 100% of the time.....so as always in trading probability is pretty much your only companion. Check this one out - it is a free indicator on Tradingview search "Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low" by NoCreditsLeft - give it a like too for making an awesome tool! Coupled with the timing between the halving's and also a big buy signal on the Alpha Wave on the Weekly we could be looking at a potential bottom. Excitingly also S&P500 showing buying pressure 🔸 S&P500 corporate insiders are in the heavy buying zone. 🔸 This has historically led to very attractive returns in a 6-12 month time frame. BTC is and has been correlated with the S&P - so this will likely spill into BTC. Very promising signs *Data not verified so please DYOR
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Kryptochristian
Pi cycle low has fired.The pi cycle low indicator on a daily time frame has been a decent indicator for the cycle pivots on BTC for the last few years. This for me indicates the range to begin watching and officially restarting DCA strategies. This will be my second cycle I know this is hard for first timers. I've been there dropping a few Ks on BTC at 5k only to watch it sink to 3K it hurts...but looking back you just might surprise yourself. DCA is your friend. HODL and Zen out for a bit. Could go lower with the actual kerfuffle of a recession never having concurrently happened to crypto as the big tech companies report earnings and the FED hikes again starting on the 19th-27th respectively. Honestly I'll take the waves it's worth the surfing experience even if you eat sandy mud and feel like you're drowning as you roll with the shorline once or twice. Failure the best teacher is. Fail small win big. Your wave will come.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by GreatScottTheMoon
Pi-Cycle Bottom PossibilityThis is the 2015 Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator copy and pasted over the current price and aligned with yesterday's crossing. There are some similarities between the price action in 2015 and now. If something similar plays out, we may see some significant downside in the next few days. This wouldn't be a surprise as the CPI print yesterday was 9.1% and downside in most markets is to be expected. Similar to yesterday, in 2015 the price was in a small uptrend when the indicator crossed, which turned out to be a bull trap. This could play out in a similar fashion.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MarkLefevre
2
Did we confirm bottom on BTC?Pi cycle bottom and top indicator has been pretty accurate over the history of bitcoin price action. It is currently once again flashing "bottom." If history repeats itself we may see a price action similar to what I projected in the chart aligned with the long term trendline. The Pi Cycle Indicator forecasts the cycle top and bottom of Bitcoin’s market cycles. It attempts to predict the point where Bitcoin price will peak before pulling back or will bottom before it takes off. It does this on major high time frames and historically has picked the absolute tops and bottoms of Bitcoin’s major price moves throughout most of its history.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoBreakers
8
🔥 Bitcoin Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator Signals Bear Market BottomBefore we dive deeper into the analysis I want to give a quick overview of what the pi-cycle bottom indicator is, "The indicator comprises a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the outcome is pitted against the 150-day EMA to predict the underlying market's bottom." In short, the Pi-Cycle bottom indicator is similar too the Pi-Cycle top indicator, but with different values. Historically, the Pi-Cycle bottom indicator has signaled the BTC bear-market bottom within 3 days of the signal. This would mean that the BTC bottom will be in within the next three days. However, will the pi-cycle bottom indicator work again this time? There's only two previous instances of the indicator working, one can't really deduce statistical validity from an N=2. Funnily enough, people said the same thing about the Pi-Cycle top indicator last year. In hindsight, the Pi-Cycle top indicator did a great job signaling the technical top for the current BTC cycle (technical top = top based on indicators and on-chain metrics). Will this time be different? Maybe. The current macro-economic outlook is vastly different from the previous cycles. Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market has never been this high and, with inflation still on the rise and a recession looming, stocks are more likely to go down than to go up in the near-future. Unless today's CPI numbers will cause a huge 20%-30% sell-off, I don't think that BTC will bottom within the next three days. Time will tell. Nevertheless, I think that this indicator is one of the better bear-market bottom indicators. Bottoms never occur when people expect it.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
11
Pi-Cycle Bottom Will Cross Tomorrow Most LikelyThe Pi-Cycle Bottom will most likely cross tomorrow. If the indicator remains predictive, and consistent with itself, the bottom should occur within a few days of it crossing. This would imply significant downside coinciding with an important CPI/Fed meeting this week. There is precedent for the indicator crossing and BTCUSD falling -40% within the following few days. I've wavered quite a lot on the question of whether the macro bottom is in. Mostly due to Ben Cowen's credibility and views, I'm currently leaning towards the bottom not being in and significant downside still to come. The pi-cycle bottom crossing in this context may impy we will see a large downside move in the next week.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MarkLefevre
1
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart & Historic Bottom AnalyThis post looks at the following items to assess BTC possible upcoming cycle accumulation ranges, next cycle bottom and historic lowest price possible: * Cycle Bottom Indicator & CBI Extensions * Log Chart key support and resistance levels * 200W SMA (Simple Moving Average) Historic Cycle Bottom Support * Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone * 300W SMA Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range. CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs). GOLDEN BOX As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W SMA, the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W SMA has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W SMA suggests this in the past this is a range 'Smart Money' has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference. GREEN BOX The 300W SMA resembles the worst case under evaluation support SMA reached during an extreme 'Black Swan' event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W SMA and the 300W SMA represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference. LOG CHART The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart support / resistance levels and potentially the 300W SMA (Violet line).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 02]A quick update relating to our previous post. BTC has continued its trend to quickly drop to the 200W SMA once it has broken the 600D SMA and we are now in our Golden Box accumulation zone between the 150W SMA and the 200W SMA with potential to drop down to the green box and visit the 300W SMA. If our 'BTC - Historic Over Bought / Sold MAs' indicators holds true, then we are more likely to visit the 300W SMA than hold at the 200W SMA. The first test of the Cycle Bottom Indicator (CBI) is aligning with potential TA support targets if the MA's continue on their current path. The custom Fear and Greed indicator on the daily is heading toward dark red undervaluation territory, historically aligning with cycle bottoms. The % undervaluation from the 200D & 600D moving averages are both in the green zone, aligning with cycle bottom territory. There are also other Macro time frame indicators such as the Stochastic RSI, RSI, MACD and on chain metrics which are aligning with conditions which have resulted in past cycle bottoms. For fun, I have overplayed the 2017 market cycle bottom for a scenario where we accumulate and find out bottom at the 300W SMA. Keen to here your thoughts (comment below).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Brodie
Pi Cycle: BTC has not been at the market bottomThis post uses the pi cycle indicator to examine the market bottom in this cycle. The indicator has not given a signal of market bottom. Examining this indicator in previous cycles, it seems that bitcoin is in the pre-bottom phase. At this point, the price has moved between the SMA 471 and EMA 150. RSI indicator in the previous bottoms of the market also shows that this indicator has entered the overbought area in the weekly timeframe and crosses down the value of 20. In the current cycle, although the RSI is on a downtrend, it has not entered the overbought area.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
6
Follow Up BTC Double Pi Cycle Top 2022??See my previous Idea for the beginning of this thought process... If BTC would Double Pi Cycle Top this time it would probably be a longer time between tops BTC dropped 50% in 14 bars/weeks so far this time... Top to Top was 35 weeks in 2013-14 and 4.5X This time I gave it 55 weeks , not quite double and a 4X to $260K the chart is in log Scale so boxes mark a Log price point This is possible wilth-in the time frames Next Pi Cycle Top in April-May 2022 I'll save this chart and re-visit as time goes along..
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chefrusty