DIS reversalPotential reversal long term downtrend. Higher high and low, buy above recent x
Target prior high and volume spike 110-112
PNF
SHOP Pnf wedge breakoutPnf buy signal breaking out of wedge in uptrend. Buy Nov85/95 bull call spread
Target 105, will look to add/pyramid on pullbacks
How to use Point and Figure charts in ForexPoint and figure charts eliminate noise and time. Hence I find them highly beneficial.
On how better to use them I recommend to refer to Neil Callard of 8 dragons capital (for forex) or Du Plessis manual on Point and Figure (meant for stocks however).
In forex we use 1 box reversal pnf charts. In stocks it is common to use 3 box reversal charts.
I prefer to use pnf charts based on close instead of highs and lows, as Callard teaches.
You can add MACD candles over and some Moving averages or Ichimoku to have a better picture what is going on.
Pnf charts generate great break out signals, especially at Frankfurt - London and New York opens. They are the best to catch breakouts.
For Pnf signals please refer to Neil Callard teachings.
I wish yoy success in your trading and a happy New Year! God bless!
Bitcoin Price Targets From p&f AnalysisP&F is an old but great chart technique i like to use. It measures the volatility - a perfect match to Bitcoin. I'm using 3 box reversal with box size of $1.000. It's used to calculate price objectives at the end of wyckoff structures by measuring horizontal counts.
I've shared many p&f charts pointing 100k during first accumulation, but we got another reaccumulation followed by that and i believe we have come to the end of this accumulation zone. This means we now have more columns to count for a higher price objective!
The Segments:
1- Conservative
I'm taking the LPS of the primary accumulation as the conservative count, which is 9 bars.
(9x3x1000)+29=56k
(9x3x1000)+39=66k
2- Moderate
The spring of primary accumulation. 19 bars
(19x3x1000)+29=86k
(19x3x1000)+39=96k
3- Aggressive
The whole accumulation count. 31 bars
(31x3x1000)+29=122k
(31x3x1000)+39=132k
So, in all the fear of the moment, step back and consider this accumulation we had. Was that all for nothing? I don't think so!
But what do i know :)
Trade safe!
Micro E-Mini SP500 / ES MiniDirections of the MES for long and short.
Long entries are blue rectangles.
Short entry is the red rectangle.
I would prefer the long side because the overall picture and bias is based on my option long.
See how it goes.
Thanks
Holm
Bitcoin 67k or 8k First?Here's the P&F chart update for Bitcoin after the Amazon FUD.
We have a reversal bar to the downside which is bearish, but in order not to become overly bearish, i'm also counting for a possible reversal to the upside for the next column. Ofcourse we should expect a reaction in these reversal bars. In fact the current reversal could be the reaction itself.
30k is the double bottom and 40k is the double top. Crossing these levels could take us further as explained on the chart. I tokk only the last segment of consolidation as they are the first targets.
We are still in the sideways trading range and we could break out both ways. There are signs of strength and accumulation, but volume is not supporting this.
I'm in short strategy, but i'm posting this as neutral so people don't take action within this trading range by looking at my analysis idea.
Be safe.
16k Is Playing Out!We are officially in a double bottom breakdown structure on the p&f chart! As i explained in my previous analysis, this breakdown will take us down between 14-16k.
This structure started playing out on July 2nd when the reversal of the current downward column has kicked in:
So, this is nothing unexpected if you followed my previous analysis. Let's see where it stops, if it stops :)
Speaking of following, i have been warned by one of my followers - comprehensiveC46563 - about an Indian youtuber - open4profit - who actually copied my analysis in his video:
www.youtube.com
See how he changed the colors and copied my analysis to the letter. It's amazing how he made hundreds of thousands of followers, just by copying people and making money of off them, he's abviously open for profit! I don't have much to tell to these people. If you are so desperate to do this, and not give any credit, i can only pity you!
Beware of these miserable people and learn trading. I've added a free resources section to my signature so everyone can do this on their own. Feel free to ask questions and i'll be happy to answer / iterate on this resource page.
All the best!
P&F Chart Eyeing Towards 14-16kBack in June 2nd i shared a P&F chart analysis when it printed a new reversal column.
Since then 12 days passed and nothing has changed on that chart, except today it printed another box down! It always amazes me how good p&f charts are at filtering noise. All the excitement, traps, zigs and zags and everything in between means nothing until price moves towards certain levels. In this case, price moved down below 32k. You may call it just a wick, but the p&f doesn't work that way, it never misses a weakness.
What does this tell us?
If we break below 31k, we will have a double bottom in p&f terms. This means a breakdown is in play. Last time we had this double bottom, was the return from the trading range resistance and gave us 6k drop, while still keeping us within the trading range.
This time though, the breakdown would take us BELOW the trading range and based on wyckoff horizontal count of JUST the last segment of 5 columns, would take us down towards 14-16k region!
Let it unfold.
We Have A New Downward Column On P&f Chart TBC in 2.5 Hours!I'm always keeping an eye on the p&f chart as it's one of the main pillars of wyckoff method and we got our new downward column as we entered in to 32k territory. You may say we have recovered and held 33k and it was just a wick. A wick is still weakness and p&f chart created the new column to be confirmed at the day close. This new column, if persists and beaks below $31k, could very well end up at low 20's, which would be a double bottom breakdown pattern in terms of p&f chart reading.
So, keep an eye on it!
Price Target for $APPS (PnF count)$APPS has a nice little breakout strategy, and just reclaimed $70. If this holds and it continues up, we have a spring out of the current wyckoffian accumulation phase. I'm just getting into PnF charts, and they've been remarkably accurate so far. The PnF count puts APPS at a whopping $280 (+290%) long-term price target, and $136 (+90%) for the short term wave up.
Still new to Wyckoff and PnF so I welcome any informed criticism.
SLV ETF - The next GameStop (GME) by WallStreetBets (WSB) ?Will SLV ETF be the next GameStop (GME) to start the crazy run up as WallStreetBets prepares to unleash the World's Biggest Short Squeeze in Silver?
Let's analyze SLV with price action trading strategy and volume spread analysis (with Wyckoff concept) to scrutinize the tell-tale signs before any potential big moves happen. In the end of the video, upside target will be estimated with Point & Figure projection.
Bitcoin PNFBTC printing bearish reversal signals across all exchanges on PNF chart. Will take 2-3 rotations or price reversal above19500 to invalidate or flip that signal.
Short signal suggests being short with risk capped at 19500 stop. If price continues to chop though this signal could flip bullish again within a day or two.
Volume profile on standard charts suggests 17770 will be a support.
BTCPNF still showing a bullish trend though 19350-19400 has acted as resistance several times now. Stops on long positions at 18770 should protect against large downside move.
Trend neutral with consolidation still showing.
Quick breakout entries likely at 19280 for longs, or 18880 for shorts. As we are consolidating though breakout trades should be considered higher risk as they have failed several times in the last few days. Will try and update when a clear trend signal prints.
Spring art, art of spring Furniture producer spring art, newly listed company since end of 2019. While newly listed means a new uncharted territory, Spring have so far shown a nice months of accumulation period between 175-255. There is a clear broadening triangle pattern depicting the accumulation process.
Assuming 275 is the creek, i have made the PnF TP calculation
PnF= 0.005x3x25
= 0.375
TP~~ 0.18 + 0.375
= 0.555
TP2~ 0.225+0.375
= 0.60
Ready for a markup phase, Spring has formed the Wave 1 EW. Wave 1 peak right at the resistance by Gann fan 1/1 and retrace at RBS line of the broadening triangle trend line. Do note that it has made a spring up till 0.5/0.618 Fibo retracement before resting at current 0.38fibo area. Using the informations we have made the Elliot wave projection up till potential TP.
Given that this is uncharted territory with less historical data, it is good that it retrace and forming a strong significant support like it does now at Wave 2 EW before continue the remaining EW. All the lines in the chart is the immediate resistance/support areas.
Volume profile wise, we cannot see a clear distribution in play yet.
Plan this trade with tight loss given that below this support, the region 340-290 has a thin volume profile which mean, price will move fast in any direction within this region.
All hail Gold Digger. Spread and DistributeGOLD has seems to be at its distribution area. Based on TP calculated using Law of Cause & Effect PnF chart, conservative target can be considered reached at USD2100 area (2077 to be exact).
Here's how I deduced TP reached:
6 years of accumulation (2013-2019) at USD1180-1400/oz shows a classic schematic of wyckoff accumulation phase. On PnF chart, using box size of USD5 and reversal amount of 3, I got a total of about 154 accumulation columns. With this information, I can get the approximation amount to be marked up = 154*5*3 = USD924.
From the chart, we can see a complete 5 Elliot Waves and its ABC correction waves.
Although it might be true that Gold is currently at distribution phase, it doesn't mean that Gold price is set to make a cliff diving. Distribution phase might take up months to years, as seen from historical data in 2012, it took 1 year of distribution before mark down. Possible distribution range might be around USD 1800-2000/oz
IMHO, I think it is not a good time to start buying gold now for a long term investment. However, for a short term play around USD 1800-2000, one can consider and find a good entry point around the neckline of this distribution area.
Artroniq: purely TA, FA inside the oceanArtroniq aka PTB has broken put of its trading range with clear JAC,LPS, and SOS.
Based on LCE PnF charting the TP calculation as follow:
Pnf = 16x0.01x3
= 0.48
TP consv= 0.14 + 0.48(50%)
= 0.38
TP aggrsv = 0.14 + 0.48
= 0.62
TP conservative has already touched. However, using volume profile indicators (visible range), there is no clear distribution in play yet. The current retracement at Fibo 0.38/0.6 might actually its wave 2 of EW.
Using TP aggressive, pairing with EW, there is the possibility to shoot for TP 600-620, marketing wise, there are not so many herd yet. and there is a chance there will be news to attract the herd and help to push price up.
Devouring Netflix with Point&Figure analysis. Market Top. SHORT.Netflix hit an all-time high, then corrected. It crept below the uptrend line but didn't generate a sell-signal below it. It passed back above the uptrend line but hit the resistance roof. Again, it just crept below the uptrend line but without a sell-signal, suggesting that the trendline is acting as support, albeit loose support. The price climbed above again but then broke the uptrend line and generated a Double-Bottom sell-signal.
Following the double-bottom sell, it fell by a further two boxes before being supported by the original uptrend line. It then rallied upwards but couldn't reach the second uptrend line which suggests this trendline now may switch to a resistance role. The price sunk below the original trendline for the first time and generated another double-bottom sell at the level of penetration, falling a further two boxes after the double-bottom signal box. It barely snuck above the original trendline before sinking down, albeit at a higher low. What followed was a strong rally which broke through the original trendline but was met with resistance from the most validated trendline.
After very brief congestion, the price rallied through the most validated trendline by 4 boxes. This questioned the resistance power of this trendline. Though it is thought this 4 box rally above was an attempt to reach the previous all-time high. A pole developed and sunk the price through this trendline and then the original trendline again, and created a triple-bottom sell. The next X column failed to come close the original trendline. A catapult then formed with a double-bottom after the triple-bottom. The next X column failed to touch the original trendline before another double-bottom sell-signal was generated. Two downtrend lines have now formed but the area of support is yet to be full broken.
My impression is that we are experiencing a market top and that a potential reversal is imminent.
Things to look out for:
- Will minor downtrend be penetrated?
- Will major downtrend line be penetrated?
- Will the area of support be penetrated?
For a short, anticipate:
- the second downtrend line to be validated
- the area of support to be penetrated
- a double-bottom sell-signal or better
OIL ANALYSIS & SETUP - Phase C completion suggests quick rallyPhase C Completion suggest a quick rally above $57
SETUP:
Pattern Confirmation: Rally into short term overbought at above $59
Pattern Failure: Close above $53.50
Trading Minimum Target: $51 count line + (25 boxes* 1 reversal * 0.5 box size)=$63.50
Campaign Minimum Target: $51.50 count line + (48 boxes * 1 Reversal * 0.5 box size)= $75.50
Happy Trading!
BTC/USD 1D/1W charts (11/21/2018)Good morning, traders. So far, we have been seeing decent movement with Bitcoin since yesterday's $4048 low. Furthermore, my PnF count has the $4,000 area as the low based on the descending triangle pattern that price exited through the bottom of in that chart. If that count holds up, then we should, at minimum, move sideways for a bit, if not head back up. At this point, we have filled in the 1W low volume node and bounced off the monthly OB. I realize there are a lot of calls for lower, which remains a possibility, but for now at least it seems like we may be getting a reprieve from the downward momentum. Daily RSI is finally rising and currently sits at 13.6. OBV has continued to rise off the low on the 15 minute chart and has been rising on the 4H chart as well. The 1D has created a large descending broadening wedge, as mentioned yesterday, which should now provide a target of $1400 above the breach if price exits through the wedge's resistance. 4H RSI is sitting just above oversold once more with a lot of room to run, if price continues to rise, and MACD is nearing a bullish cross. In the near term, I am looking for price to target $4800-$4900 before a bit of a larger pullback. However, we will need to see price push through the swing high at $4761 in order to do so. Beyond that, $5000 remains psychological resistance and $5800/$6000 (the bottom of the 2018 TR) is the larger target. A further close above $6500 all-but-guarantees the corrective market is behind us. It is at that point that we will likely know whether or not price will continue lower. If price happens to drop below yesterday's low, then we will of course continue to look at $3600/$3700 as the next potential bounce area.
So, what have I been looking for in terms of confirmation? As I mentioned during the live streams, I am waiting for a nice hammer or other strong bullish candle on the 4H TF, at the least, but preferably on the 1D, 3D, and/or 1W. Additionally, a bullish engulfing candle on one of those larger TFs would also qualify as confirmation of a bounce at the very least. This should be preceded by a lot of very negative sentiment noticeable throughout social media (which I believe we are in the process of seeing). Although volume is higher on this week of downward movement than it has been lately, the reality is that it is very small compared to the Selling Climax in February. This leads me to believe that the current shakeout is a #2 Spring which is most readily associated with a Terminal Shakeout. Whereas the #1 Spring in February is denoted by the large and increasing candle spreads and expanding volume (large drop with large supply), the #2 Spring is denoted by large and increasing candle spreads but only moderately expanding volume (large drop with moderate supply). The question is, is this the 21 or 23 version of #2 Spring? We need to continue watching price action and volume to get an idea.
If you have been paying attention, then you will have noticed that Bitfinex Longs have been increasing steadily during this downswing. Why is this important? Because you should have noticed that a significant number of longs have been liquidated as well. This means that more Long positions are being opened than closed on the down move suggesting absorption. Additionally, Shorts have continued to build as price dropped further. This leads me to believe that smart money is going long while retail is going short. Possible support for such an analysis can be found in social media as the general sentiment is despair and pain. These Shorts will help fuel the move up as much of the supply should have been removed during 2018's accumulation as well as the recent shakeout. Any strong movement back up should see retail traders FOMOing in as well thereby accelerating that rebound. There is no guarantee that all of this will happen, but it remains the most likely scenario at this time, once this shakeout is complete.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
