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Ethereum Forms Upward Thrust to $235.50 in Phase BHappy Saturday. The scope of the TA will be limited to the 15M Intraday Chart and the 1D Chart. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation has completed Phase A of a Wyckoff Accumulation range, establishing the Intraday trade range between $234.25 and $230.00. The formation has moved into Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation, has completed the Upward Thrust (UT) to the $234.50 price handle, followed by a second Upward Thrust (UT) on a Sign of Strength (SOS) to the $235.50 price handle. The formation is currently forming a creek before moving into Phase C. The formation has printed a second Upward Thrust (UT) on a Sign of Strength (SOS) and the PA appears to have formed a classic Back-Up/Last Point of Supply (BU/LPS) at the $234.25 price handle suggesting imminent breakout. At first glance, it appears the formation is about to have a strong move higher, but it smells more of a bull trap for a couple of reasons: The PA remains confined below trend line resistance, suggesting the chart be viewed with a bearish bias. The formation is currently in Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation, and an Upward Thrust (UT) of this type is typical PA before forming a Creek to move into Phase C. A breakout during this phase is atypical. The key item to watch for is PA retuning into the trade range (failure and supply). The Volume profile is materially weak given the strong move higher on a Sign of Strength (SOS) and the Volume Oscillator is printing a sharp decline on the move, indicating the trend is weakening and on the verge of change. Everything here is mirrored almost exactly on the 4H Intraday Chart as well. On 1D chart, the formation signaled a move into Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution and is currently printing the first Last Point of Supply (LPSY) on a macro level. Two key items of note: (i) the upper line of support rests at the $229.50 price handle and the lower line of support rests at the $225.25 price handle, and (ii) the $229.50 price handle is a critical point across all three Charts (1D, 4H & 15M). Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point with the current PA. A breach below this price handle will signal a significant breakdown of support on the Intraday time frames and signal a sell on the higher time frame (1D). A price of $230.00 would form a double bottom on the 1D Chart and touch lower support on both Intraday Charts (4H and 15M). A price of $229.75 would signal a sell from the double bottom on the higher time frame (1D) and breach the lower support line on the Intraday charts (4H & 15M). A price of $229.50 would confirm the double bottom sell and touch the upper line of support on the 1D Chart. Summary/My Trade Plan While the bias across the board remains bearish, a slight lean towards short position entry at points above $233.75 seems to make sense from a risk/reward scenario. Given both, (i) the premature Selling Climax (SC) Ethereum had as a reaction to Bitcoin breaking lower support at $9,120.00 and (ii) Bitcoin just completed a Return to ICE (RTICE) completing Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern, the natural move from a Creek to Spring in a Phase C Wyckoff Accumulation makes logical sense as a potential inflection point into a Selling Climax (SC) should Bitcoin move into Phase E Distribution in the near future. Should the formation bounce on a typical Jump Across the Creek, the position can still be closed in minor profit. However, should the inflection point not hold, the ensuing Selling Climax (SC) provides an excellent opportunity for more material profit as support across multiple time frames should potentially fail in rapid succession. The $229.50 price handle is a critical point across all three Charts (1D, 4H & 15M). Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point with the current PA. A breach below this price handle will a signal significant breakdown of support on the Intraday time frames and signal a sell on the higher time frame (1D). Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Enters Wycoff Phase E After Breaking Support at $9,120.0Happy Thursday. Today the Technical Analysis will be confined to the 15 Minute Intraday chart. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation printed a Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW) on a breakdown with conviction through the lower line of support at the $9,120.00 price handle to $9,020.00, before reversing direction and printing a lower high at $9,140.00. Since the PA has reversed direction after printing the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), it has failed to break out with conviction above the lower line of support at the $9,120.00 price handle, tapping out at $9,140.00. This PA signals the formation has entered Phase E of a Wyckoff Distribution and major move down (a Selling Climax) is imminent. The cause from consolidation suggests a target price of $8,660.00, should the cause fully exhaust itself in this distribution. Typically, a Selling Climax will exhaust itself in 2 – 3 legs during the Selling Climax (SC) over the final phase of distribution, providing additional Last Points of Supply (LPSY) during the breakdown. The key price to watch for on the 15M Chart is $9,020.00. A price of $9,000.00 would signal a sell and a price of $8,980.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,660.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Summary/My Trade Plan Given the formation is has just confirmed entry into Phase E, a Selling Climax to $8,660.00 is imminent. The plan is to Layer in Short Positions above $9,100.00 (Ideally $9,120.00) on the retest of the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) before the formation moves wholesale into the anticipated Selling Climax (SC). The current Target Price would be $8,660.00. Once shorts have been layered in, sells should be layered in starting at $8,680.00 through $8,660.00. Stoplosses should be placed in the $9,230.00 region. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
7
Bitcoin Eyes Breaking Lower Support at $9,120 for Phase E MoveHappy Sunday. The concept of money has always fascinated me. If you ever find yourself in the Colorado Springs area, be sure to check out the American Numismatic Association Money Museum . It is probably one of the most comprehensive histories of currency in the United States. Lately I’ve been somewhat sucked into a piece I’m writing about Blockchain and Gresham’s Law give some of the fundamental analysis I’ve been doing more recently. Once I get it finished and published, I will include a link in the next TA update. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation has just completed a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation (trade range established between $9,340.00 and $9,120.00) and has started to move into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has potential to flip to Bearish Bias from Bullish Bias if trendline support is broken. With Phase B underway, the most likely course of action is PA riding the trendline until after forming the typical Upward Thrust (UT) in Wyckoff Phase B - possibly to the mid $9,300s (I don’t feel the PA will not move past $9,400.00). After the Upward Thrust (UT), I would expect the bias to flip as trend line support should break. One key price to watch for on the 15M Chart is $9,120.00. The lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has just completed a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation (trade range established between $9,340.00 and $9,120.00) and has started to move into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has completed a Secondary Test (ST) of resistance at the $9,340.00 price handle and establish the trade range. One key price to watch for on the 4H Chart is $9,280.00. A break above this trendline resistance will both signal a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) – potentially to the $9,400.00 price handle - is underway and flip the bias to bullish from bearish. Also, the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. On 1D chart, the formation appears to be at the tail end of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution, printing a series of Last Points of Supply (LPSY) in rapid succession before moving into Phase E and a Selling Climax (SC). The formation is currently printing a green candle with a high at $9,340.00 and a low at $9,140.00. The key price to watch for on the 1D Chart is $9,240.00 (since the prior close was $9,300). A daily close above $9,240.00 guarantees the candle remains green, otherwise we move into a column of O’s, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Also, the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Crypto Market Capitalization and Bitcoin Dominance Lately I have started to include some ore fundamental analysis into my TA to get a better sense of the fundamental trends within the cryptocurrency market in total. The results were eye-opening. The total Market Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has declined 41.8 percent on a continuous, unbroken decline since February 17, 2018. The chart suggests the pace of new capital entering the crypto market is being eclipsed by existing capital exiting the crypto market for just over two years now. It would explain why the recent PA rally to the $10,420.00 price handle had all the TA hallmarks of a blow off top. Also, Bitcoin Dominance has declined 5.31 percent on a continuous, unbroken decline since September 5, 2019. The decline in dominance was from 72.79 percent of the Cryptocurrency Market Cap to the recent local high of 68.92 percent of the Cryptocurrency Market Cap. The recent breakdown from that local high in the recent period is significant as well. The chart seems to suggest Market Capitalization is currently flowing from Bitcoin into Altcoins, potentially signaling “Alt Season” is in full swing. Interesting sidebar - Bitcoin remains range bound, with shrinking overall cryptocurrency market capitalization and shrinking Bitcoin dominance. This leaves the overall impression Institutions and larger players are filling Altcoin buy orders for Bitcoin and distributing those Bitcoins on the open marketplace for fiat, while incurring minimal slippage. Summary/My Trade Plan Across all Bitcoin Charts (1D, 4H & 15M), the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress. Given the formation is currently in the tail end of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution (printing a series of Last Points of Supply) and the lower boundary of support is the same across all time frames, it would suggest a Selling Climax (SC) of significant magnitude is imminent. The Wyckoff Phase B Accumulation (which is currently underway) always presents an Upward Thrust (UT) near or above resistance. This provides an excellent opportunity for a scalp long or an opportunity to layer in short positions. Wyckoff Phase C provides similar opportunities with Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) which are common throughout that Phase. The plan is to Layer in Short Positions above $9,300.00 on the Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) and Phase C Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD). The current Target Price would be $8,640.00. The Target Price will be refined as the formation moves into Phase C and Phase D depending upon the cause consolidated into the formation. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Ethereum Moves to Phase B of a Wyckoff AccumulationHappy Wednesday. After some consideration, I’ve decided to initiate coverage on Ethereum in addition to normal coverage on Bitcoin. The scope of the TA will again be limited to the 15M Intraday Chart. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, after a period of consolidation within the resistance range ($227.75 - $222.25), Ethereum broke out on a Jump Across the Creek, with PA moving to $228.75 to form Preliminary Supply (PSY). PA then moved down to print a Back-Up/Last Point of Support (BU/LPS) at the $226.75 price handle and reversed to form the Buying Climax (BC) at the $232.75 price handle - fully exhausting the cause from consolidation. After establishing the Buying Climax (BC), the PA Fell to the $227.00 price handle on the Automatic Reaction (AR) to establish the upper end of support. The Secondary Test (ST) of resistance established the lower range of resistance at the $231.25 price handle and the Secondary Test (ST) of support, established the lower boundary of support at the $223.00 price handle, moving the formation into Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation. The key takeaways for the formation so far would be (i) once PA moved down to establish the lower boundary of support on the Secondary Test (ST) to the $223.00 price handle, it broke through trend line support, flipping bias from bullish to bearish, and (ii) activity moved lower in concert with the move lower by Bitcoin and the PA has been confined within the support range since. While I am waiting for the Phase C to provide some direction on the trend overall, the formation appears to have a bearish tone from the start. I am curious to see if Ethereum runs a counter-trend or remains married to the Bitcoin trend. Summary/My Trade Plan No position should be taken at this time. Two key milestones should be hit before looking to enter a position, unless the formation produces clear signals to the contrary: The correction currently underway with Bitcoin (in a Phase E Wyckoff Distribution currently) needs to play out. Too much unresolved cause remains in the formation from the consolidation period and the PA of Ethereum (and the wider crypto markets) are very much correlated to the fortunes of Bitcoin. The formation of Ethereum needs to move into Phase C or Phase D to determine both the cause from consolidation and direction of the PA. It is possible Ethereum prints a countertrend to Bitcoin or leads a new breakout, but that remains speculation until the formation produces evidence supporting that conclusion. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by FOFAgent1
1
Bitcoin Signals Wyckoff Accum Phase D on SOS move to $9,220.00Happy Wednesday. I mentioned yesterday the appearance of an Upward Thrust (UT) to the $9,180.00 price handle during what I assumed was a continuation of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution threw a ton of red flags. After publishing my analysis Monday, I noticed the volume profile and PA did not line up with a Phase D Distribution, and the Selling Climax (SC) did not exhaust the cause from consolidation in the formation - which threw even more red flags. Once the formation printed an Upward Thrust (UT) on the 4H Intraday to the $9,220.00 price handle, it confirmed a Secondary Test (ST) of resistance for the new trade range, and confirmed we are now in a Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation. I have subsequently covered all short positions at the $9,085.00 price handle. As the Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation concluded and the formation attempted a breakout, volume continued to be an issue, the cause from consolidation again failed to be exhausted, and the breakout failed to have any follow-through. As a result, new short positions have been taken within the $9,160.00 – 9,180.00 price range and the $9,250.00 - $9,270.00 price range. Failure to exhaust cause from consolidation (target prices failing to be reasonably hit) in either direction is now a major problem in the $9,000.00 price region, and the activity around the $9,000.00 price handle could right before Options Expiry could be the reason. The scope of the TA will again be limited to the Intraday Charts (15M and 4H). With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, after signaling a Change of Character (CHoCH) with a clear break above the upper resistance line at the $9,180.00 price handle on a Sign of Strength (SOS), the formation retreated into a Back-Up/Last point of Support (BU/LPS) right under the $9,180.00 resistance line to consolidate for a move higher. Typically, the behavior one would expect to see with PA spreads and volume during a Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation are: “…the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes.” Phase D (to this point) has been a story of declining/compressed PA spread and trade volume, with the notable exception of the bookend Signs of Strength (SOS). When comparing the trade volume profile of this current Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation to recent Phase D Accumulations, the trade volume is roughly half of what has historically been present. The follow through on this breakout has been conspicuously absent, with initial breakout falling short of the $9,320.00 resistance line. The pullback from that initial advance has managed to stay above the resistance line at the $9,180.00 price handle. Bullish breakout would confirm should the PA break past the $9,340.00 price handle. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the PA broke trendline resistance with a move to the $9,280 price handle on a Sign of Strength (SOS). This flipped the 4H Intraday bias from bearish to bullish. Trendline support currently falls within the resistance range, which on its face, has some bullish overtones. The PA spreads, activity and trade volume all mirror the activity on the 15M Intraday. As with the 15M Intraday, the PA has pulled back to a price range above the upper resistance line at the $9,180.00 price handle, suggesting a breakout is imminent at the time of this writing. On the surface, it has the appearance of a bullish bias, but the PA behavior and volume is very atypical for a formation moving into a Phase E Wyckoff Accumulation (breakout). It seems they paint the picture of bullish exhaustion rather than imminent bullish breakout. I’m left with the impression of a bull trap again. Summary/My Trade Plan All open short positions were covered at $9,085.00 to lock down profits given the appearance of a Wyckoff Accumulation Trend in Phase D. As the Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation trend played out: (i) the volume did not appreciate during consolidation within the resistance range on PA increases (X Columns) – volume basically declined/remained flat, (ii) volume did not appreciate as expected on the breakout above the $9,180.00 resistance line, (iii) the PA did not follow through after the initial advance to $9,280.00, and (iv) the formation has failed to exhaust the cause built into the formation, regardless of breakout/breakdown. New short positions were taken within the $9,160.00 – 9,180.00 price range and the $9,250.00 - $9,270.00 price range. Current Target price is $8,760.00 and Stops are set for $9,310.00. Right before Options Expiry on Friday, it was reported there was a significant increase in activity at the $9,000.00 price handle for options. Should my bearish bias prevail and the news around Options PA prove to be true, the PA collapse should be significant and should dive materially lower that the Target Price. Given the formation still has unresolved cause built into it, the plan is to scale short coverage from $8,760.00 - $7,700.00 price range. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
5
Bitcoin Life in the Phase D Wyckoff Dist at Options ExpiryHappy Friday Bitcoin Options Market with approximately $1 Billion in Options expire today, so it should be a bumpy ride. Today, the TA analysis will be confined to both the Intradays (4H and 15M). With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation recently dropped beneath the key support line turned resistance at $9,240.00 and appears to be exhausting demand towards the lower end of support, which is expected in Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. A key point to keep an eye on with the 15M Intraday, is the formation is beginning to follow a typical Wyckoff Accumulation pattern (Shakeout and Spring are both appearing in this consolidation). The pattern appears set to breach the trendline resistance, suggesting a flip to bullish bias on the 15M Intraday. Given today is Options Expiry Day, and the amount outstanding is material ($1 Billion), it would be wise to keep a very close eye on this formation in the event something out of the ordinary happens (such as Upward Thrust After Distribution in Phase D). An Upthrust above $9,240 which breaks $9,320.00 here would be a red flag and cause for concern. I would expect another strong move or cluster of moves to push PA down into the $8,900.00 price region in the near future to exhaust all remaining demand in that region, test/break the lower end of support at $8,900.00, and transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the upper end of PA has shifted down from the $9,320.00 price handle to the $9,240 price handle, and the lower end of PA has been tracking the Bearish Line of Support formed from an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. The PA suggests the formation has finished exhausting demand at the $9,300.00 price handle. It exited on a PA drop through the Bearish Line of Support which printed a Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,080.00 price handle and has remained constrained below the key line of support turned resistance at the $9,240.00 price handle. Much like my earlier analysis in the $9,600 region and the $9,300 region, I would expect the formation to print another green candle (potentially two), as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E and a final Selling Climax (SC). Summary/My Trade Plan Short positions should have been taken within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 zone, the $9,400.00 - $9,300.00 zone, and the $9,300.00 - $9,200.00 zone. Given the appearance of an accumulation pattern in the $9,240.00 – $9,100.00 with potential to break trend line resistance on the 15M Intraday looming, it suggests adding more to short positions at this time is unwise – better to allow this formation to resolve first before seeking to add more short positions or ride with the current positions held. The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $8,020.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). Covering short positions should begin at or near the $8,300.00 price handle, layer covers through $8,020.00, and reserve approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom/bottom sell. Stops currently at the $9,470.00 price handle should be shifted downward to the $9,365.00 price handle. The split should be a 50% of the total position at $9,470.00 and 50% of the total position at $9,365.00 to safeguard against an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which could fall back into the trade range. While uncharacteristic for Phase D, given the appearance of an accumulation on the 15M Intraday and Options Expiration today, prudence is wise here. At the Selling Climax (SC), a scalp long should present itself off the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,900 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
4
BTC Continues Phase D Wyckoff Dist Targeting a Break of $8.9kHappy Thursday. Tomorrow appears to be a massive day in the Bitcoin Options Market with approximately $1 Billion in Options set to expire. Bitcoin Options Market Faces Record $1 Billion Expiry on Friday According to the article, there are 114,700 options contracts valued around $1 Billion USD across Deribit, CME, Bakkt, OKEx, LedgerX which are set to expire, with open interest clustered around the $10,000.00 - $11,000.00 strike prices and recent open interest buildup around the $9,000.00 strike price. Get ready for a bumpy ride. With that, let’s get to the TA... Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, Since dropping back into the trade range established in the support zone ($9,460.00 - $8,900.00), the formation appears to be exhausting demand at the middle and lower ends of support, which is expected in Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. “Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble.” - The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial After breaking through the upper level of support at the $9,460.00 price handle on a Sign of Weakness (SOW), the PA printed another Bearish Line of Support, and subsequently printed another Sign of Weakness (SOW) on a Descending Triple Bottom to the $9,200.00 price handle. After a brief recovery above the Bearish Line of Support, the PA smashed through the Bearish Line of Support again with a very strong move to the $8,980.00 price handle and established another Sign of Weakness (SOW) before recovering above the Bearish Line of Support once again. It’s very clear the purpose of these moves is to exhaust all remaining demand in this price region. As of this writing, the PA on the current weak rally appears constrained below the key line of resistance at $9,240.00. I would expect another strong move or cluster of moves to push PA down into the $8,900.00 price region in the near future to exhaust all remaining demand in that region, test/break the lower end of support at $8,900.00, and transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, after the bearish breakdown from the $9,600.00 price handle to the $9,260.00 price handle, the PA has been constrained beneath the $9,320.00 price handle, with large spreads and heavy sell volume, indicating significant supply has entered the market. The formation appears to have established a Bearish Line of Support on the trend line formed from an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. Ironically, that trend line once behaved as resistance. The PA smashed through this now Bearish Line of Support on a strong move down to the $8,980.00 price handle on a Sign of Weakness (SOW), before recovering above the Bearish Line of Support again. Much like my earlier analysis in the $9,600 region, I would expect the formation to print another green candle (potentially two), as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E and a final Selling Climax (SC). On 1D chart, after forming a “Creek” of descending PA and increased volume, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) signaled a move into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (again arguably the most volatile of the Wyckoff Phases). Two key items of note: (i) the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which formed at the Jump Across the Creek, failed to rise to at least the lower line of resistance at the $9,940 price handle, and (ii) the current cause built into the formation at the Intraday level suggests the current red candle should complete at the $7,900.00 price handle and establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) at a macro level. Should the PA fall below the lower level of support at $8,120.00, this would signal confirmation a Wyckoff Distribution (not Re-Accumulation) is underway at a macro level . This second point is significant as the remainder of the formation plays out at the macro level. Summary/Trade Plan I’ve currently taken short positions within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 region and the $9,400 - $9,300 range. I would look to add to my short position with weak rallies in the support zone (potentially between the $9,300 - $9,200 range), and shift Stops from the $9,510.00 price handle to the $9,470 price handle. The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $7,940.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). I would look to begin covering shorts at or near the $8,300 price handle layering buys through $7,940.00, reserving approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom and potential bottom sell. At the Selling Climax (SC), I would look for a scalp long to catch the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,900 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, I would sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
5
Bitcoin Enters Phase D Wyckoff Dist After Breakdown to $9,260Happy Wednesday. It would appear my thoughts about the formation printing a bull trap were correct, and the recent drop signaled the conclusion of Phase C and entry into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, it appears as though the Sign of Weakness (SOW) printed at the break of the Bearish Support Line on a Descending Triple Bottom signaled an incoming drop back into the trade range established inside the support zone as expected. It would appear the red flags around the failure to exhaust the cause on the move up were warranted, and the formation played out as anticipated in Phase C. After the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,580.00, the formation painted a series of Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) with declining volume as demand at the $9,600 price handle was exhausted. A Bearish Line of Support was formed with the lower lows and a Sign of Weakness (SOW) was printed at the $9,580.00 price handle from a Descending Triple Bottom off the Bearish Trendline. This signaled the supply coming to market was disproportionately overwhelming demand and move lower was in play. A steep drop in PA back into the mid-range of support signaled the conclusion of Phase C and a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution has commenced. During Phase D, we should expect the price to remain below upper support at the $9,460 price handle and gradually move lower through the range before coming to the bottom of support at the $8,900.00 price handle. Any rallies within Phase D should be on weak volume and provide excellent opportunities to take a short position or add to a current short position. Once the low end of support breaks, this will signal Phase E, and a Selling Climax (SC) exhausting all the cause built into the formation should ensue shortly after. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the bearish breakdown from the $9,600.00 price handle to the $9,260.00 price handle, unambiguously signaled the formation has entered Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. The formation broke through the support trend line which was established at the low point of the creek at the $9,200.00 price handle. This decisive break printed both a Sign of Weakness (SOW) and flipped the bias from bullish to bearish on the 4H Intraday chart. I would expect the formation to print a green candle, potentially two, as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E. That being said, in this area, I would focus more of my attention on the 15M Intraday, since that appears to be driving where Last Points of Supply (LPSY) are forming as we march towards a Selling Climax (SC). On the fundamental side, it appears the coins from the spike in Miner Outflows reported by Onchain Analyst Cole Garner, have hit the exchanges in this recent selloff based upon reports from cq.live. Thanks to Tradingview user @derrybit for sharing that piece of info. On 1D chart, after forming a “Creek” of descending PA and increased volume, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) signaled a move into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (again arguably the most volatile of the Wyckoff Phases). Something of note - the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which formed at the Jump Across the Creek, failed to rise to at least the lower line of resistance at the $9,940 price handle. This would suggest supply has entered the market which is disproportionately greater than demand at this price range, and lower PA should be on the table soon. However, since the formation is in Phase C, Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) are normal and should be expected. It is possible we could see a move higher to $10,420 after the current distribution cycle exhausts the current cause. Generally speaking, Wyckoff Accumulation and Wyckoff Distribution waves happen in cycles of three. As this current distribution wave is the third consecutive wave in this series, I would anticipate accumulation and a rally in PA at the conclusion of this current cycle. Summary/Trade Plan I’ve currently taken short positions within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 region. I would look to add to my short position with each weak rally in the support zone, potentially between the $9,400 - $9,300 range, and shift Stops from the $9,730.00 price handle to the $9,510 price handle. The Target Price for the short position would be $8,760.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation). At the Selling Climax (SC), I would look to target the $8,680.00 price handle for a scalp long to catch the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the Selling Climax (SC). Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, I would sell off immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Life After the Recent Phase C Upward Thrust to $9,780Happy Tuesday. The expected Upward Thrust (UT) in Phase C did appear, and it came with both the volume and PA one would expect for a bullish move up. The larger question is – does this mean the formation is bullish rather than distributive? Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, it appears as though the formation had a bullish breakout with Move 1 taking the PA to the $9,620.00 price handle, followed by a textbook formation of a Back-Up/Last Point of Supply (BU/LPSY) to the resistance line at the $9,560.00 price handle, and a subsequent surge from Move 2 to a Buying Climax (BC) at the $9,780.00 price handle. The recent move raised some red flags since the full cause built into the formation during consolidation was not exhausted. This would suggest supply is disproportionately higher than demand at this price point, and a turn lower in the PA should happen. The built-up cause should have ended with a Buying Climax at $10,420.00, but the PA has stopped well short of that price handle, which is a significant red flag. Moreover, since the Buying Climax at $9,780.00 on the 15M Intraday, the formation has not managed to break the $9,720 price handle on upward PA swings and has formed a Bearish Triple Bottom which did break the support line, bounced off resistance at $9,580.00 (potentially signaling support) and recovered to $9,680.00 price handle. Since recovering, it appears the formation is moving into a classic Phase A Wyckoff consolidation pattern on the 15M chart at the time of this writing. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which took the PA from $9,280.00 to the $9,780.00 price handle, unambiguously signaled the formation has entered Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution. If the formation is, in fact, making a bullish move rather than a distributive bull trap, I would have expected two strong moves up to $10,420.00 on strong volume, which would bookend a Back Up to form a Last Point of Supply (BU/LPSY) right around resistance at $9,580.00 (Move 1 -> BU/LPSY -> Move 2). The formation had a strong Move 1 on solid volume (11.748K) to $9,780.00 and performed a textbook Backup/Last Point of Supply (BU/LPSY) exactly to the resistance line at $9,580.00. However since that time, the formation has failed to generate any real volume in over 8 hours (1.397k) or surge past $9,780.00 to exhaust the remaining cause at or near the Target Price of $10,420.00. This is beginning to look more like a very well executed bull trap. Also, there may be some fundamental evidence to support this narrative. On the fundamental side, Onchain Analyst Cole Garner posted an infographic on his Twitter account about the recent spike in BTC miner outflows overnight. Cole Garner Spike in Miner Outflows If this is true, it would suggest miners which were initially hoarding BTC waiting for PA to move higher post halving have hit capitulation and are unable to continue holding their BTC in anticipation of a higher price. This also may explain Preliminary Supply (PSY) flooding the market at the $9,720 handle, which halted the PA rise. On 1D chart, after forming a “Creek” of descending PA and increased volume, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) signaled a move into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (again arguably the most volatile of the Wyckoff Phases). Something of note - the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which formed at the Jump Across the Creek, failed to rise to at least the lower line of resistance at the $9,940 price handle. This would suggest supply has entered the market which is disproportionately greater than demand at this price range, and lower PA should be on the table soon. However, since the formation is in Phase C, Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) are normal and should be expected. It is possible we could see a move higher to $10,420 if the full cause is exhausted on this current move before a move back down into the normal trade range. Summary/Trade Plan In my mind, the recent PA feels more like a bull trap rather than a bullish move up. The trade plan is to enter a short position Somewhere in the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 region with a Stoploss at the $9,730.00 price handle. The Target Price for the short position would be $8,820.00. Should the Stoploss trigger, and a move higher ensue, I would take a long position at the $9,765.00 price handle with a Target Price of $10,420.00 on the move higher. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
17
Bitcoin Continues in a Phase C Wyckoff DistributionHappy Friday. With the current news about the young trader on Robinhood who committed suicide after racking up $700k in losses, be sure to never trade more than you are willing to lose, have a plan and stick to it. Trading and surfing have a lot in common – every wave is not the right set, so look for your set and let the others go. Plenty of great opportunity exists for the patient. Currently the formation is within Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (arguably the most volatile of all the Wyckoff Phases). The case could be made that the formation is moving into Phase D or is there already. Phase D is broadly defined as follows: “During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR…. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions.” For the record, on the 4H Chart, the support zone the formation established at the outset lies between $9,460.00 and $8,900.00. Key takeaways from the current PA are: The formation has continued to remain constrained beneath the trend line (on the 4H Intraday) from the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle, and it appears this trend line is strong resistance and remains untested. The PA formed and progressed along a Bearish Support Line established with the first Sign of Weakness (SOW), which printed immediately after a Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance. The PA subsequently printed a Downward Breakdown of the Bearish Support Line on a second Sign of Weakness (SOW) and has been mired in a trade range in the middle of support since that Breakdown. PA spread and volume (particularly sell volume) has increased since the second Sign of Weakness (SOW) was printed on the Downward Breakdown of the Bearish Support Line to the $9,240 price handle. Since that breakdown, the Bearish Line of Support has no longer behaved as effective support for PA, and price spread has increased substantially as a result. This suggests demand has been exhausted in the higher price range. The Accumulation/Distribution Indicator is currently in a strong downtrend illustrating selling pressure is more prevalent in the market at the current time. A downward trend which is in congruence with falling prices points towards lower price in the near future. The Volume Oscillator on the 4H (-19.70%) and the 1D (-26.93%) suggesting a strong trend shift is imminent. The current cause built into the formation from consolidation suggests a target price of $8,960.00. Always keep in mind, as consolidation continues more cause is built into the formation (much like a spring being wound and compressed before being released). Consequently, the price target will shift as consolidation continues and more cause is built in. While a line of support exists at the $9,320 price handle on the 15M Intraday, my expectation is it will provide a momentary pause/resistance in downward price movement rather than strong support. In Phase C Wyckoff Distribution volatility defines this Phase. Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and shakeouts should be expected. Unless the formation prints Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which breaks past resistance at the $9,580 price handle, Backs Up to form a Last Point of Support (BU/LPS) at or above the resistance line and bounces, the formation still maintains a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Enters a Phase C Wyckoff Dist (Target Price $9,060)Happy Thursday. Currently the formation has completed Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution and is moving into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution – arguably the most volatile of all the Wyckoff Phases. I believe the PA appears to be headed lower in the near future for a number of key reasons: The formation has remained constrained beneath the trend line (on the 4H Intraday) from the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. Currently the upper line of support at the $9,460 price handle is acting as resistance and constraining price beneath it as well. The formation is grinding along a Bearish Support Line, formed Downward Breakdown of the Bearish Support Line, and signaled a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as it formed the “Creek” to jump across. “Jumping the Creek” generally happens as Phase B ends and is an attempt to rally above resistance at the $$9,580 price handle (which was unsuccessful). The formation failed to break past the upper support line at the $9,460 price handle on the “Jump Across the Creek”, signaling weak demand and bearish bias. Further, on the pullback, the low re-tested the Bearish Support Line. The current cause built into the formation from consolidation suggests a target price of $9,060.00. Always keep in mind, as consolidation continues more cause is built into the formation (much like a spring being wound and compressed before being released). Consequently, the price target will shift as consolidation continues and more cause is built in. While a line of support exists at the $9,360 price handle on the 15M Intraday, my expectation is it will provide a momentary pause in downward price movement rather than strong support. As the formation moves into a Phase C Wyckoff Distribution volatility is what defines this Phase. Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and shakeouts should be expected. Unless the formation prints Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which breaks past resistance at the $9,580 price handle, Backs Up to form a Last Point of Support (BU/LPS) at or above the resistance line and bounces, the formation still maintains a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Phase B Wyckoff Distribution (Price Target $9,140)Happy Wednesday. Today’s analysis will be a bit brief and focus on the activity of the 4H Intraday chart for a potential short setup. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the PA continues to remain underneath both the resistance range at the $9,480 price handle and the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. During Phase A, the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance failed to establish a higher high above the Automatic Reaction (AR) at the $9,580 price handle, which suggests bullish demand in this region continues to remain somewhat soft. Further the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Support to the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance was almost three times as much as the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance to the first Sign of Weakness (SOW). This would suggest distribution is underway. Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart: (i) the PA continues to remain solidly underneath the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) to the $10,000.00 price handle, and (ii) a series of successive lower lows have opened up, creating a potential Bearish Triple Bottom Breakdown/Downward Breakout of a Bearish Support Line. Both takeaways would suggest a bearish bias when viewing the 4H Intraday Chart. Should the PA break through the Bearish Support Line at $9,400, the Target Price for the Breakdown would be $9,140.00. Should the PA break above the $9,620, this would signal a buy in this region with a potential upside target of $9,980.00. Currently the formation favors a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
7
Bitcoin Enters a Phase A Wyckoff Accum After Selling ClimaxHappy Monday. Well, that escalated quickly. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, that breakdown below $9,000 to the $8,900 price handle took virtually no time at all for a Wyckoff Distribution. The PA for the formation could never break above the $9,480 price handle, even on successive attempts on very anemic volume, which signaled a move lower appeared to be in play. The PA spreads to the downside became much larger as the formation progressed, and printed a Sign of Weakness (SOW) once the PA broke through the line of support established by the Selling Climax (SC) established in Phase A at $9,060.00, also signaling a move lower appeared to be in play. As the formation developed into a Creek, the expectation is it will create a quick succession of lower lows until it meets a surge of demand, then explode upward on an Upward Thrust (UT) towards resistance (a Jump Across the Creek), and the PA will either break through resistance on a move higher or experience rejection at or below resistance and fall lower. The expected Jump Across the Creek was incredibly anemic, was rejected after rising only four boxes at the $9,200 price handle, and turned lower in a cascading Selling Climax (SC) to the $8,900 price handle, exhausting all the cause built into the formation. The formation is currently in a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation range after completing the most recent distribution, and it is currently establishing the trade range for the next part of this larger macro Wyckoff Distribution underway. One particular item of note thus far: both the price-spread and volume appear anemic on the Automatic Reaction (AR) stage of this Phase A Accumulation. With the formation remaining solidly under the trend line established at $9,480.00 one must maintain a bearish bias until that trend line is broken. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation remained solidly underneath both the lower resistance range at the $9,480 price handle and solidly underneath the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) established at the $10,000.00 price handle before entering a Selling Climax (SC) dropping the PA to the $8,900 price handle. After the formation broke through trend line support established at the Selling Climax (SC) at the $9,060 price handle, the Sign of Weakness (SOW) turned into a Selling Climax (SC) with virtually no demand to counteract the selloff. The selloff continued and exhausted all the cause built into the formation once the $8,900 price handle was realized. Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart (i) both the price-spread and volume appear anemic on the Automatic Reaction (AR) stage of this Phase A Accumulation suggesting weak demand in this price range at this stage, and (ii) the PA remains solidly underneath the trend line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) established at the $10,000.00 suggesting a bearish bias unless the trend line is broken. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains within Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. The PA of the formation has remained in the midpoint of the trade range while trending lower and is currently pushing lower inside of a red daily candle. Typically, after a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT), the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible and moving into Phase C. In the current formation, a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) was printed at the $10,420 price handle. Since then, the PA has gradually pulled back to the $9,060 price handle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle (and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) before moving into Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Phase C is arguably the most volatile phase, which could propel the formation to higher highs on successive Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) before moving into the final distribution phases and pushing price down below the lower support handle at $8,120.00 in a bid to complete the cycle. On the 1D, two key items of note: (i) volume is currently trending downward as the PA moves lower, suggesting we may be coming close to the bottom of this move down, and (ii) the Volume Oscillator has moved into negative territory and printed a significant negative value (-17.54%), suggesting a trend shift is imminent. If I were to hazard a guess, it would appear we may have between 1 -2 more macro moves down before the trend should reverse again. Typically, strong reversals occur when the Volume Oscillator prints values above 30%. On the 1D, two key items of note: (i) volume is currently trending downward as the PA moves lower, suggesting we may be coming close to the bottom of this move down, and (ii) the Volume Oscillator has moved into negative territory and printed a significant negative value (-17.54%), suggesting a trend shift is imminent. If I were to hazard a guess, it would appear we may have between 1 -2 more macro moves down before the trend should reverse again. Typically, strong reversals occur when the Volume Oscillator prints values above 30%. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Enters a Phase B Wyckoff AccumulationHappy Saturday. My price target for that most recent breakdown missed the bottom by $20 (too low), so I have some mixed feelings on that one. However, I do hope everyone found an entry into a short position. This climactic breakdown to $9,060 during the Phase E Wyckoff Distribution exhausted the full cause built into the formation during the last distribution cycle. At conclusion, the formation moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation range to build cause again and determine the upcoming direction. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation immediately following the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,060.00. The Selling Climax (SC) at $9,060.00 established the lower end of the support range. The PA then turned upward on the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the $9,450.00 price handle, establishing both resistance and the preliminary trade range. After establishing the prelim trade range, the PA moved downward towards support for a Secondary Test (ST) of support to the $9,300 handle, before moving upward towards resistance for a Secondary Test (ST) to the price handle of $9,480 to complete Phase A of Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has now moved into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. Some items of note with the current formation: (i) the current PA remains constrained below the resistance line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $9,960.00 price handle suggesting a bearish bias, and (ii) the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance topped out at $9,480.00 - below the Automatic Reaction (AR) price handle of $9,540 also suggesting weak demand at this price range and bearish bias. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute with respect to support, resistance and trade ranges. Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart (i) the PA following the Selling Climax has remained constrained below the resistance line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle suggesting a bearish bias, and (ii) the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance topped out at $9,480.00 - below the Automatic Reaction (AR) price handle of $9,540 (mirroring the 15M Intraday activity) also suggesting weak demand at this price range and bearish bias. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains within Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. The PA of the formation has moved below the lower end of resistance towards the midpoint of the trading range and is currently pushing lower inside of a red daily candle. Typically, after a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT), the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible and moving into Phase C. In the current formation, a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) was printed at the $10,420 price handle. Since then, the PA has gradually pulled back to the $9,060 price handle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle (and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) before moving into Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Phase C is arguably the most volatile phase, which could propel the formation to higher highs on successive Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) before moving into the final distribution phases and pushing price down below the lower support handle at $8,120.00 in a bid to complete the cycle. I would imagine in the near term, an Upward Thrust (UT) towards resistance should happen. A Bearish Triangle was recently invalidated on the 15M Intraday suggesting a move higher is in play in the near term. Should the formation PA break resistance on a Sign of Strength (SOS) on a move above the $9,450 price handle and pull back into the resistance range without falling below the lower line of resistance at $9,480 (a Back-Up), this would suggest a bullish move higher could be in play before moving into a Wyckoff Distribution cycle. However, should an Upward Thrust fall back into the trade range, we would have to wait until the formation Jumps the Creek into Phase C (or sells off) to determine the direction of the next move. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
1
Bitcoin Enters a Phase E Wyckoff DistributionHappy Thursday. While Bitcoin pushes forward into a more bearish market in the near term, the news cycle around cryptocurrency and stablecoins continue to dominate news cycles and continues to be very upbeat. Bank Frick, the cryptocurrency friendly bank in Lichtenstein, now processes payments in USDC as an alternative to processing payments via the SWIFT system. "With the addition of USDC, we enable our customers to process USD payments quickly and token-based. Compared to the classic SWIFT procedure, the processing time is significantly reduced," said Stefan Rauti, head of blockchain banking at Bank Frick. Crypto-Friendly Bank Frick Now Processes Payments Via USDC Stablecoin, Says it is Faster Than SWIFT Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a Phase C Wyckoff Distribution (arguably the most volatile phase in a Wyckoff Distribution), shortly after the PA formed a “Creek” of cascading lower lows. This PA was followed by the initial Upward Thrust (UT) at the Jump Across the Creek which failed to at least hit the lower resistance line at $9,860, signaling a potential Distribution was underway. After a brief consolidation period throughout the mid-range of the formation, the PA volatility came in relentless wave after wave: four Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and a test of the $9,600.00 support level. The UTADs topped out at $9,880.00, $9,840.00, $10,000.00, and $9,960.00 respectively, yet none of the UTADs decisively broke the $10,000.00 resistance level, also signaling a potential Distribution was underway. Shortly after, the PA decisively broke through the lower support handle at $9,660.00 and subsequently tested support at $9,600.00 on a Sign of Weakness (SOW) signaling entry into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution. After moving higher to the midpoint of the trade range to $9,780.00, the PA smashed through the lower support handle again at $9,660.00 and pushed through support at $9,600.00 to the $9,580.00 price handle on a second consecutive Sign of Weakness (SOW). Once the formation exits the trade range and the PA moves below the lower support handle of $9,660.00, it will signal the PA has moved into the final phase (Phase E) of a Wyckoff Distribution, and climactic price action should happen shortly after. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute chart With Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) at $9,880.00, $9,840.00, and $10,000.00 respectively. Three key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart which add to the argument a Wyckoff Phase E Distribution is unfolding (i) during the Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD), none decisively broke the $10,000.00 resistance level, suggesting a turn lower was in play, (ii) the PA continued to follow the trendline established from the Last Point of Support (LPS) at the $8,820.00 handle, until the PA broke decisively downward after forming a higher low (and LPSY) from rejection of the $10,000.00 price handle, and (iii) that decisive break resulted in a collapse through the critical lower support handle of $9,660.00 and through support at $9,600.00 in a single candle. All these signs appear to signal a Phase E Wyckoff Distribution is about to occur. The formation of the 4H Intraday chart currently has about $1,000.00 of downside cause built into the formation from the congestion, which would suggest a target price of $8,740 once the climactic action of the Phase E Wyckoff Distribution exhausts all the downside cause in a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a red candle, which is currently at higher low relative to the previous red candle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase E Wyckoff Distribution is underway as well. My expectation is for the formation to move lower in the near term, with a current price target at the $8,740 handle, followed by consolidation and distribution around this range before the next leg down. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
S&P 500 breaks down from distribution structure with P&F targetS&P 500 futures slumped 1.6% to 3130 as of the current London session with increasing supply. Yesterday heavy selling was observed during the first two hours and the last two hours of the US session. Current level around 3130 might provide some support. Should S&P 500 violate this level, it could hit the Point & Figure distribution projected targets from 3052–3067. Check out the video for a complete walk through of the daily market analysis of S&P 500 futures (ES) for 11 Jun 2020 trading session. In this video, I am going to show you the market recap on the last session, plus one trade review in the M3 timeframe (including entry, exit and the rationale behind). Going forward, I will cover the bias, the key levels to pay attention to, and the potential setup for the US session later. I encourage you to watch my daily market analysis video yesterday below if you haven't in order to better relate with the market recap and trade review. Bias - down (Day trading); Up (Swing trading) Key levels - Resistance: 3210, 3180, ; Support: 3130, 3060 Potential setup - look for a test of the H4 down accelerated bar (around 3160–3170) and short upon rejection. Or to long upon reversal from the key supporting levels. Disclaimer: The information in this presentation is solely for educational purpose and should not be taken as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by mingjong
Bitcoin Enters a Phase D Wyckoff DistributionHappy Monday. It seems the season of change for Bitcoin may be upon us in the near term, which again seems counter-intuitive considering the current news cycle. Nevertheless, it can provide some excellent buying opportunities for cold storage at excellent value as Distribution pushes forward. With that, let’s get into the Trading Analysis… The 15M Intraday Chart Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a normal Wyckoff Accumulation from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280 through the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,880. The formation then moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Distribution and appeared to experience a Change of Character (CHoCH) in Phase B, signaling a shift into a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase. The first Shakeout drove the PA down to the $9,660 on a Secondary Test (ST) of the low formed at $9,720 on the Automatic Reaction (AR), to establish the trading range for support. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a normal Wyckoff Accumulation from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280 through the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,880. The formation then moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Distribution and appeared to experience a Change of Character (CHoCH) in Phase B, signaling a shift into a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase. The first Shakeout drove the PA down to the $9,660 on a Secondary Test (ST) of the low formed at $9,720 on the Automatic Reaction (AR), to establish the trading range for support. Phase C started with a Creek formation which is expected in Phase C of a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation. Typically we would expect to see a Sign of Strength (SOS) at the conclusion of the accumulation (called a “Jump Across the Creek”), which would appear as a strong upward move in the PA to the Resistance Line, followed by a small pullback to a Last Point of Support (LPS) (generally withing the upper and lower boundaries of resistance) and a subsequent bullish advance. Instead, the formation failed to rally to or above lower resistance line at the $9,860 handle (formed by the earlier Secondary Test (ST) in Phase A) which would suggest the formation was experiencing a Change of Character (CHoCH) and moving into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution. A second attempt by the PA to push higher stalled out at $$9,780 (which formed a lower high) and a subsequent PA print below the lower support line at $9,660 signaled a Sign of Weakness (SOW). The 4H Intraday Chart Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute chart constraining accumulation activity inside the lower trade range between $9,740 and $9,660. Three key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart which add to the argument a Wyckoff Phase D Distribution is underway (i) when the formation moved to Jump Across the Creek, the initial move down to establish the creek caused the PA to break the support line at $9600, suggesting a bearish bias is now in play on the 4H Chart, (ii) the Upward Thrust (UT) from the Jump Across the Creek failed to at least rise to or surpass the lower resistance line at $9,840 and, (iii) lower highs and higher lows have formed on all PA since the Upward Thrust (UT). All these signs appear to signal a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is currently underway. The 1D Chart Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a green candle, which is currently a lower high than the previous candle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term before. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is underway as well. My expectation is for the formation to move lower in the near term, with a current price target at the $8,740 handle, followed by consolidation and distribution around this range before the next leg down. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
9
Bitcoin Enters a Phase B Wyckoff Distribution on 4H IntradayHappy Friday. It seems the season of Bitcoin may be changing, which of course seems counter-intuitive considering the current news cycle. While the market seems to be preparing for the next legs down, on the fundamental side, it seems Bitcoin is finally getting its due. Recently the acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks solicited input from the public on cryptocurrency use in the financial sector. On the surface this seems like click-bait, but when we dig deeper, one item of interest is Brian Brooks is the former Chief Legal Officer (CLO) of Coinbase. US Bank Regulator OCC Asks for Public Input on Cryptocurrency Use in Financial Sector Be sure to check out the Advanced Notice of Proposed Rule Making linked in the article and provide some feedback. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation realized the target price of $9,860 suggested in yesterday’s market analysis, which signaled Preliminary Supply (PSY). Shortly after, it pushed one box higher to $9,880 in a Buying Climax (BC), which signaled the beginning of a potential Phase A Wyckoff Distribution underway on the 4H chart. The Automatic Reaction (AR) pulled back to $9,720, and formed the preliminary trade range between $9,880 and $9,720 to conclude Phase A. As the formation moved into Phase B, it printed a lower Secondary Test (ST) at $9,840 - just underneath the upper end of the trade range, then turned lower and pushed through the initial support established at $9,740 from the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the $9,660 price level on a Sign of Weakness (SOW). We need to peek at the 15M Intraday chart to get an idea of what’s happening here… Looking at the 15M chart, we see the formation established support for the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,660 price point, then performed a Secondary Test (ST) of the support at $9,660 before printing a Shakeout Spring to the $9,600 level. Two key takeaways from analyzing this PA (i) the move to the downside occurred almost immediately after breaking the support trend line established at the $9,460 low which formed after signaling a Sign of Strength (SOS) and subsequent rise to the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,860, and (ii) support at $9,660 has been tested and confirmed four times as of the time of this writing. The formation continues to establish support at this level, with price currently confined in the $9,720 - $9,660 trade range. This PA appears to confirm a normal Phase B Wyckoff Distribution is currently underway on the Intraday time frame. Recall from yesterday’s analysis of the 1D Chart, during Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution, large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Given this appears to be a normal Wyckoff Distribution, my expectation would be gradual rise back to the $9,880 upper resistance level, with a potential Upward Thrust (UT) to a price point somewhere around the $10,000 – mid $9,000’s, before turning back down and moving into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution. Currently the formation on the 4H Intraday has $300 of cause built in from the consolidation, which suggests a price target of $9,420, should the high immediately after the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at $9,720 behave as the Last Point of Supply (LPSY). As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a red candle, pushing the PA lower. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation is underway as well. Were I to hazard a guess, it would appear that $9,200 may be in the cards in the foreseeable future before re-establishing support for the next leg down. I would imagine the $9,900 - $10,000 region will be the eventual target of an Upward Thrust (UT) on the 4H Intraday before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins on the 1D chart. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
6
Bitcoin Consolidation Cont in the $9,780 - $9,640 Range (W Acc)Happy Thursday. Sometimes it’s amazing just to see relentless pressure to push the PA higher. Seems now Bitcoin is being taken even more seriously as a competitor to conventional fiat currencies - Enough so that Bitcoin Core has just released a new experimental software update called “Asmap” which is designed to hedge the chain from potential malfeasance and attacks from “players the size of nation-states which could effectively fracture the Bitcoin network.” Latest Bitcoin Core Code Release Protects Against Nation-State Attacks Hardening the network against nation-state malfeasance and bad actors is a significant achievement given the current appetite for stimulus and currency debasement from countries worlwide. Interesting times. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation continues to progress through a regular Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. The formation has just pushed past the key resistance level of $9,680 established earlier, signaling a Sign of Strength (SOS) on the most recent Upward Thrust (UT). One key piece to keep an eye on as the PA continues, is the formation is starting to hug the bullish support level formed by the Last Point of Support (LPS) at the $8,820 level. A break in this support line would flip bias from bullish to bearish on this Intraday chart. The PA appears to have stalled out at the $9,860 level on the current rise, and we need to peek at the 15M Intraday chart to get an idea why that’s the case… On the 15M Intraday we can see since the Secondary Test (ST) resistance line at $9,640 was broken, the formation has continued to advance in a stepping-stone method in triple-top and double-top breakouts (both triple top and double tops are bullish in Point and Figure) all the way through the $9,860 price level, before running into resistance from the trendline established with the recent high of $10,420. Between the 4H and the 15M Intraday charts, I am left with the impression the price may pull back before advancing again. If the formation is in a Wyckoff Phase E Accumulation, I would imagine the formation pulls back to about the $9,640 level before advancing again. However, if the formation remains in a Wyckoff Phase B Accumulation, while unlikely, I could see the formation potentially pulling back as far as the lower end of the trade range to $9,280 before advancing. I think in my mind, the most reasonable lowest low on the pullback might be resistance at $9,420. Currently the formation on the 4H Intraday has $420 of cause built in from the consolidation, which suggests a price target of $9,860, should the low at $9,460 behave as the Last Point of Support (LPS). As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Counterintuitively, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are signaling short term Wyckoff Accumulation is underway - think of it as a microcosm of Intraday activity which is encompassed by the consolidated view of the 1D. I would expect to see more stepstone accumulation and distribution to appear, and move the formation into the higher $9,000’s region ($9,800 - $9,900) should the recent should the low at $9,460 behave as the Last Point of Support (LPS). Should a reversal candle print on the 4H, this would suggest consolidation will continue, and I would imagine the $9,900 - $10,000 region will be the eventual target before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
2
Bitcoin Consolidation in the $9,640 - $9,280 of a Wyckoff AccumHappy Wednesday. I hope everyone ended up relatively unscathed with the boomerang Bart action this past Monday evening. Never a dull moment trading Bitcoin. It’s interesting to see the discussion around digital currencies begin creeping into the US elections campaign narrative recently. Two days ago, US Representative Cynthia Lummis had a very wide-ranging interview with Coindesk about purchasing her first Bitcoin in 2013 and becoming and advocate for digital currency. Meet the US Senate Candidate Who’s Invested in Bitcoin Since 2013 An interesting sidebar is the Governor of Colorado Jared Polis holds the distinction of being one of the first politicians to accept Bitcoin campaign donations while running for re-election as a US Congressional Representative for the state of Colorado in 2014 directly after an FEC ruling in that same year. Congressman Jared Polis Accepting Bitcoin Donations Following FEC Ruling Perhaps some form of mainstream adoption may be closer than it appears. Time will tell. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation built up a tremendous amount of cause during the consolidation period right before the breakout to the $10,420 level. However, once the formation hit that high, it retraced the full breakout 100% and fell further collapsed to $9,280 before rebounding to the $9,420 handle. Bart much? Since the Selling Climax at $9,280, the formation appears to have started a regular Wycoff Accumulation pattern. The characteristics of this pattern are more visible on the 15 Minute Intraday Chart After establishing support from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280, the formation established the initial upper end of the trade range at $9,440 from the Automatic Reaction (AR) and fell into a tight trade range between $9,440 and $9,420. The formation appears to have continued progress during consolidation into a normal Wyckoff Phase B Accumulation as it pushed above the initial upper resistance level at $9,440 to $9,640. Since that thrust upward, PA has been confined in the $9,640 - $9,440 trade range as of this writing. Currently there is approximately $300 of cause built into the formation during this recent consolidation period, which would suggest a current price target of $9,800. As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price recalibration. The Volume Oscillator printing a negative number (-16.54%), suggesting a shift in the current trend is on the horizon. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Counter-intuitively, on shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts, I would expect to see more step-stone accumulation to appear and move the formation into the higher $9,000’s region ($9,800 - $9,900) before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
2