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Poloz

CAD POLOZ SPEECH TODAY MAY 25TH - NZDCAD POSSIBLE BULLISH MOVEFX:NZDCAD AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH WE'VE SEEN BULLISH ACTION ACROSS NZD AND AUD BASED PAIRS POSSIBLE CONTINUATION WHILE WE ALSO COULD SEE FUTHER DOWNSIDE PRESSURE IN OIL OR CAD ITSELF DUE TO THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND PRINTING OF $$$$. HOLD ONTO YOUR HORSES, IT'S ONLY MONDAY TRADERS! CHEERS JOIN US IN THE TELEGRAM ANALYSIS GROUP WHILE ITS FREE! *RECEIVE UPDATES ON MAJOR GLOBAL EVENTS *DAILY FX CHART ANALYSIS* *EDUCATION* *ACCESS TO TRADE CAPITAL* t.me #POLOZ #CAD #FOREX #MAY24 #VICTORIADAY #FOREX
Long
by EvaultFinancialGroup
1
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Long
by joebrownFX
1
ridethepig | Canada CPI Event RiskWith US away from their desks today we will get a dull session and the relentless loonie bid will grind us back towards the 1.3275x area. It is a good value level to re-engage with shorts and here looking to add ahead shorts there ahead of local CPI on Wednesday. The MT and LT outlooks for Canada are very good in my books; A bullish USD view on risk via coronavirus flows will be better expressed versus EUR or even AUD because of relationship with China if things get really bad. Canada is less exposed on the monetary side (other than as collateral via oil) and as long as data holds up there will be no further rate cuts, and remember we have OPEC cuts coming next month. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump in with your charts and views below...
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CAD Spot Commentary 2020.02.12An interesting addition to the Oil dynamics with OPEC cuts coming in March clashing with risk-off flows via coronavirus spillovers and everything else in-between. There is a lot going on; highly recommend tracking the retrace leg in Oil for this one it is really going to act as the main driver for us to lean on over the coming sessions. We can track accurately the isolation of USD and Oil with USDCAD. In diagram below, this one is coming from CADNOK, you will notice NOK outperforming: You will notice CAD also finding demand into the 1.33xx handle as widely anticipated, happy to sit short USDCAD for now and continue working the sell side. Losing 1.324x in USDCAD will unlock the floodgates for a quick spike towards 1.305x. Those with a background in waves will know that the impulsive extension is still marginally open but it would take a game changer on the oil front to get us down there in my books which is looking less and less likely given the shift away from Oil. The USDCAD downside can be played for 1H20 before things get difficult again in Oil. Don't forget to keep the likes, charts and comments coming!
Short
by ridethepig
1
BoC Cuts & RBA Hold - AUDCAD Double Whammy!Highlights overnight going to AUD with overshoots in the U-rate as expected. This number is going to trigger the RBA surprise hold that we have been tracking in this diagram: Large hands spotted on the AUD bid last ear and will continue to do so as a lot more unwinding of positions needs to take place from those betting on FURTHER rate cuts. Tracking 0.692x in AUDUSD as a sensible target from the initial knee-jerk reaction. The strategy for the flows from the AUD side in the chart have been dissected here in this diagram: On the CAD side , Poloz caught me by surprise with a very dovish BoC. This was particularly surprising considering his pokerface at the fireside chat only two weeks ago! Focus now shifts onto whether this will be a “one off” cut…in my books the move in USDCAD should be contained by the 1.32 handle - the data (although below par) is not weak enough to justify a full blown cutting cycle. On the positioning side , long and medium term flows are still betting heavily long CAD so expect 1.32xx to provide a good opportunity to re-engage with a swing back towards 1.28xx later in the year as those longs from the recent rally begin to unwind. Good luck all those in AUDCAD and holding for the long-term, this is going to the highs like a knife through butter. As usual, thanks for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc !!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.01.09Interesting price action in USDCAD after another round of soft data from Canada. Poloz has a lot of work to do tonight if BoC are to move as rate markets are materially underpriced, especially on the front end. Expecting a dovish ‘fireside’ with early signs of encouraging demand above 1.30 this morning. Starting to cover shorts after the break through 1.304x has opened a move towards 1.31 and 1.317x, the original entries in the 2020 macro map: USDCAD LMT BUY 1.304x => TP1 1.310x => TP2 1.317x | STP 1.299x The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation allowed CAD to outperform in the immediate term however now USD is in full control as CAD macro prints have started to turn down. As long as USD remains in first gear we will have room to test the topside again, as there are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. As usual jump into the comments with your charts and questions to open the discussion, best of luck all those trading live and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes!!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ORBEX:Loonie Bid on Poloz As Impeachment Hearing Goes Unnoticed!In today’s market insights video recording I talk about markets’ muted reaction to the impeachment hearings and focus on the assets that moved! USDCAD was bid on a hawkish Poloz as he lowered down markets' expectations of a Dec rate cut. Loonie was also supported by OPEC+ likely production cut extension. While at it, I also analyse EURUSD despite it ended the session somewhat muted as volatility increased. We are also minutes before German GDP and Lagarde’s speech! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
Aussie Vs Loonie (AUD/CAD) Trade Strategy and PlanTraders sold the Aussie like no tomorrow when the minutes of RBA's meeting indicated members expected another rate cut in November. We are worried about Australia's major trading partners ' economic slowdown; contraction in housing construction activity; outlook for consumption; wage growth; inflation; and domestic growth. Ultimately, the latest papers point out that when they meet next, RBA leaders will slash their rates in February. Trade tensions in the U.S .- China pressured crude oil prices and lead it to fall lower further. Also, Russia isn't inclined to cut production more deeply at the December 5 OPEC meeting and that means the market is likely to remain oversupplied in early-2020 . Carolyn A. Wilkins (Speech): The market is focusing on the line that there is 'room to maneuver'. Don't think she's sending a signal here but any time there is the talk of cuts (and QE), that's the knee-jerk. USD/CAD touched a session high of 1.3264 from 1.3230 before the comments and AUDCAD had an effect too. Canada also did not publish outstanding posts. Canada’s manufacturing sales took a step back in September. CPI reports (Nov 20), Poloz Speaks (Nov 21) and Retail Sales (Nov 22) will clearly provide additional optimism or pessimism hint to traders for the loonie. Positive turn in global risk sentiment may also help traders to think to get out of safe havens and into risk currencies like the Loonie. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Nov 21) from Australia should be taken care of. We should take this information in mind throughout the week if we trade in this cross pair or any Aussie or Loonie being as base or variable (counter).
by Anatta0
3
Sell USDCAD - Anticipating Weak US data and Hawkish CAD commentUSD has been increasing consistently over the Asian session. It's a aftermath effect as market digest more of Yellen's yesterday speech, plus there are some more US data coming up and is on average expected to be good. My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more important driver for the pair and my base expectation is it is going to be a hawkish comment and that may send CAD higher. Sentiment wise, retails are Long USD and Short CAD. Most severely Short CAD is USDCAD and most severely Long USD is GBPUSD. I would fade USD strength and bet on CAD strength reversal. I'm still looking for an entry, either via price action or I will enter closer to the data release if the pair pull closer to 1.24 level. My TP is after Poloz's speech, of course it depends on how hawkish he is going to be but I can use price action to take off then, interest level are 1.235 or 1.23.
Short
by vietbach1990
Short USDCAD - Fib RetracementI'm selling the USDCAD. CAD has been strong lately. Even though CAD got rough data on Friday, I still think the bias for USDCAD is to the downside. It's at the 50% fib level on the hourly chart and it's at a level of S/R. My concerns: Oil and the US Durable goods data coming out tomorrow. However, Durable Goods data has yet to exceed expectations this year. Unless Durable Goods far exceeds its forecasted price, I don't expect that data point to change the USDCAD bias.
Short
by basquefxb1
BOC Interest Rate Decision This WeekThe BOC interest rate decision is scheduled at the end of this week on Friday. Based on the market consensus, we’re not going to see any meaningful shift in terms of the BOC monetary policy outlook. The BOC is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record low of 0.5%. The BOC is not anticipated to hike rates until 2018 while on the other side of the monetary policy spectrum; we have the Fed, which has already hiked 3 times in the past 17 months. This only leaves the Canadian dollar exchange rate at risk. The BOC will reveal not just its interest rate decision, but we’re also going to get an updated monetary policy report, which can give traders further outlook on the strength of the Canadian economy. During the last BOC meeting, Governor Poloz had a balanced rhetoric. The BOC also updated its 2017 growth forecast and they expect the output gap to close in the first half of 2018 so earlier than expected, but at the same time, it’s too early to conclude the economy is on a stable or sustainable path. Based on the BOC assessment the CPI inflation headline of 2% is expected to fall back to 1.7% as the BOC continued to reiterate that considerable uncertainty remains in the market. In terms of the monetary policy outlook, there is no meaningful conviction that the BOC will be ready to move the interest rate off of record low. USD/CAD Technical story ahead of BOC The USD/CAD technical pattern remains bullish in the long-term. In the medium-term, the USD/CAD is trading above the yearly opening price 1.3415 which in essence can be the line in the sand for the bulls. To the upside, the big psychological number 1.4000 is the next big hurdle for the USD/CAD. Short-term the USD/CAD rally paused as we’ve seen oil prices rebound sharply. It’s been rumoured that OPEC nations and non-OPEC nations (Russia) are willing to extend their production cuts and the next OPEC meeting scheduled at the beginning of next month in Vienna. The BOC interest rate decision can be the catalyst for a breakout of the current range that USD/CAD has established in the past 2 weeks. A failure to preserve this bullish formation will be signalled by a break below the big round number 1.3500. Based on our Elliott Wave Analysis, we are USD/CAD to continue being pressured lower towards 1.3379 area before another potential move higher towards 1.4096 area. Going into this week BOC Rate Statement, we will be looking for short term sell opportunities. Conclusion The biggest threat to higher interest rate is the USA – Canada trade uncertainty which poses a notable downside risk to growth. It’s very unlikely that the BOC will even signal any shift in its interest rates policy anytime soon. With this in mind, we can safely assume that any USD/CAD false breakout to the downside should quickly fade away. Watch for the 1.3500 psychological number and the year opening price 1.3415 to hold the downside. However, a daily close below 1.3415 can signal a shift in the market sentiment.
by KarYong
1